motivation for the testbed: improving prediction of environmental processes design of this testbed
DESCRIPTION
A Super-Regional Modeling Testbed for Improving Forecasts of Environmental Processes for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts Don Wright, SURA Principal Investigator Rich Signell , USGS Technical Advisory and Evaluation Group Chair. Outline. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
A Super-Regional Modeling Testbed for Improving Forecasts of
Environmental Processes for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts
Don Wright, SURAPrincipal Investigator
Rich Signell, USGS Technical Advisory and Evaluation Group Chair
• Motivation for the testbed: improving prediction of environmental processes
• Design of this testbed• Year 1 products• Future work
Outline
Improving Forecasts of Coastal Environmental Processes
• Factors: open boundary conditions, surface and river forcing conditions, enhanced physics, adjustable parameters, data assimilation, numerics, amount of data assimilated, skill of modelers(!), vertical and horizontal resolution, coupling to wave and met models.
• “Which model is better?” is not the right question. What factors in the simulation resulted in a better solution? How much better? At what cost?
Defining Improvement
• To measure improvement for environmental processes, we need to define skill metrics for specific environmental processes and often for specific region
• Inundation, search and rescue, deep oil spills, navigation, hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, diver operations, alternative energy siting, beach erosion, regional impact of climate change all require different skill metrics
• Operational centers need community help in this process – too broad for NOAA and NAVY!
The ocean community needs a common cyberinfrastructure to access, analyze and display data from the different models: each model currently has their own standards and toolsets
A Common Cyberinfrastructure for Model Data
Structured Grids Unstructured Grid
5x5
6x3
10 nodes
Variety of StretchedVertical Coordinates
The Plan:• Build a common infrastructure to enable access, analysis and visualization of all coastal ocean model data produced by NOAA, NAVY and IOOS
• Develop skill metrics and assess models in three different regions and dynamical regimes, to ensure a robust and powerful infrastructure
• Identify factors that could be transitioned to operations• Build stronger relationships between academia and operational centers through collaboration
A Testbed Framework for Coastal Ocean Models
Testbed “Management”
Testbed Advisory Evaluation Group
Shelf HypoxiaGulf of Mexico
Estuarine HypoxiaChesapeake Bay
Cyber Infrastructure
Coastal InundationGulf and East Coast
Testbed Team
Structure
Rick Luettich, UNC-CHJohn Harding, MSUCarl Friedrichs, VIMS
Rich Signell, USGS
Eoin Howlett, ASA
Don Wright, SURA
Doug Levin, NOAA/IOOS Liz Smith, SURA
25 members
21 members 20 members 24 members
7 members
Cyberinfrastructure (CI)All Regions – All Teams Extending CI from OGC, Unidata and others (NOAA DMIT, USGS CDI) to support unstructured grids, and add functionality
Web Access via OpenDAP w/CF Unidata Common Data Model/NetCDF Java Library API
Distributed search capability Browser based map viewer (WMS) Toolbox for scientific desktop analysis All components standards-based!
Search services
Mapping services and browse application
Analyze in scientific desktop application
Inundation Extra-tropical – Gulf of MaineTropical – Gulf of Mexico
- 4 models: 3 unstructured grid +1 structured grid- Coupled wave-storm surge-inundation (TWL)- Consistent forcing, validation and skill assessment using existing IMEDS tool - Extensive observational data sets for historical storms Ike, Rita and Gustav in standard formats
- SURA has provided supercomputer resources
Extratropical Grid
Tropical Grids for Galveston Bay
Estuarine Hypoxia Chesapeake Bay
1. Estuary:– 5 Hydrodynamic models– 3 Biological (DO) models– 2004 data from 28 CBP stations– Comparing T, S, max (dS/dz), DO via target diagrams2. Shelf: OBCs 5 hydrodynamic models
Models doing better on oxygen than stratification!
Stratification (dS/Dz) Dissolved Oxygen
Shelf Hypoxia Gulf of MexicoHydrodynamic & biogeochemical hindcast comparisons of hypoxia model (stand alone) coupled to 3 different Gulf of Mexico hydrodynamics modelsEvaluation of two shelf hypoxia formulations (NOAA & EPA)
• Foundation of a cyberinfrastructure framework for search, access and display of all NOAA, NAVY and IOOS model data, via browser and scientific desktop application
• Skill metrics and identification of key performance factors and cost for three important dynamical regimes and environmental issues
• CONOPS for transition from research to operations • Improved communication between research and
operations
Testbed Year 1 Products
• Expand to more regions and problems• Examine more factors (e.g. data assimilation)• Build out the cyberinfrastructure • Conduct training in the community• Sustaining future development
Future Work for the Testbed (1/2)
• “How much do I get for how much?” is a better question than: “How much does a testbed cost?”
• $250K full time developer to help people get their data connected, maintain the servers, build (limited functionality into the toolkit)
• $500K for three investigators to look at a particular issue, develop metrics, compare models (deep oil spill, harmful algal bloom, different data assimilation techniques)
• $4000K for another year like Year 1
Future Work for the Testbed (2/2)