Motivation for full automation – we need it … yesterday & tomorrow   

Energy Efficiency through Automation

Tyler Folsom, PhD, PEQUEST Integrated, Inc.

91st Meeting of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy

Jan. 22, 2012, Washington DC

Time Frames

• Business: Next quarter; fiscal year• Politics: Next election• Transportation planners: 30 years• Iroquois nation: 7th generation

$$$ “The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the

ecosystem.” - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Lovins in “Reinventing Fire” finds that it is possible for

the U.S. to eliminate all petroleum, coal and nuclear energy by 2050 with a savings of $3.8T in transportation while increasing transport volume. Renewable energy is more job intensive than oil or coal.

Gilbert and Perl in “Transport Revolutions” chart how the U.S. and China can each eliminate oil by 2030.

National Security European countries fought wars over access to

salt. Making oil no more strategic than salt eliminates

the need to protect resources militarily. There is evidence that the demand for oil is

peaking before the supply peaks. A gallon of gasoline delivered to Afghanistan

costs $25 to $45.

Reasons to eliminate oil Environmental: Pollution, sustainability, global

warming National security: Devalue the principal asset

of unfriendly countries Business: High oil prices, high oil volatility,

better opportunities elsewhere

WIKISPEED

Electric Year Price RangeTesla roadster 2008 $100,009 244Nissan Leaf 2011 $33,000 100Mitsubishi MiEV 2009 $29,000 62-100Coda 2012 $41,000 150Toyota Scion IQ 2012 50BMW i3 2013 $35,000 100Plug-in hybrids Year Price Range

Chevy Volt 2011 $40,000 40Toyota Prius plug-in 2012 $32,000 15Gasoline Year Price mpg

Volkswagen SL1 2013 230

Announced cars

Transport Revolutions Britain's move to railways, starting in 1830. Substantial reversal of automobile travel in the

U.S. during World War II. The change from ships to planes for

transatlantic travel. The introduction of high speed rail from 1960

to 1985. The use of air freight starting in 1980.

U.S. driving habits

• 5% use mass transit.• Average bus occupancy is 8.8 people.• 88% drive to work with 76% traveling alone.• Average trip to work is 12 mi @ 28 mph.• 19% of trips are to work.• 30% of trips are social and recreational. • Average car occupancy is 1.57 people.• 65% of miles driven are urban.

Energy to move vehicle Power = K1*V + K2 * V3

For a car, rolling resistance is dominant until 35 mph.

For a light vehicle, air drag takes over at 12 mph.

Energy to overcome rollingresistance

dW/dt = CV/η Σm·g[CR+s/100+a/g(1+mW/Σm)]

CV: Speed of vehicle

η: Overall mechanical efficiency of transmissionΣm: Total mass of vehicle, rider and baggageg: Gravitational accelerationCR: Coefficient of rolling resistance

s: Upslope (%)a: vehicle accelerationmW: Effective rotational mass of wheels

Safety allows smaller vehicles• 93% of accidents are caused wholly or in part

by human factors.• 41% of fatal accidents involve alcohol.• Annual U.S. economic cost of accidents is

$230B.• Autonomous trains are an order of magnitude

safer than manual trains.• When all vehicles are computer controlled, a

motorcycle is almost as safe as an SUV.

Energy to overcomeaerodynamic drag

dW/dt = 0.5 CV/η CD A ρ (CV+CW)2

CV: Speed of vehicle

η: Overall mechanical efficiency of transmissionCD: Aerodynamic drag coefficient

A: Frontal area of vehicle and riderρ: Air densityCW: Headwind

Motorcycle 1.8

Bicycle 1.1

Bus 0.6 – 0.8

Toyota Prius 0.26

Pod car 0.20

Urbee 0.15

Supersonic fighter

0.016

Drag coefficients

•Urbee is a two passenger car designed for sustainability

City driving cycles

Typical light rail: 15.5 mile line.Scheduled time is 38 minutes.Average speed = 24.5 mph or 22 mph with wait.

Average speed (mph)

Maximum speed (mph)

Time stopped or decelerating (%)

U.S.A. 19 56 43Europe 20 74 25Japan 15 43 52

1000 mpg is possible

• An electric pod-car has travelled 62 miles in one hour on two ordinary lead-acid batteries; equivalent to 2200 mpg.

• Practical vehicles weighing less than the rider can achieve a 30 mile range from a 20 lb battery; refueling by battery swap becomes practical.

• Even if pod-car electricity comes from coal, U.S. carbon savings can be equivalent to 12 trains of 100 coal cars daily.

Details and references

T. C. Folsom, Social Implications of Autonomous Urban Land Vehicles, IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Spring, 2012.

T.Folsom @ qi2. com

www. enviroteach. com