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DAILY MARKET BRIEFING: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity

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Page 1: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity€¦ · VA 10.4% USDA 0.9% Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%. PURCHASE & REFINANCE

DAILY MARKET BRIEFING:

Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity

Page 2: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity€¦ · VA 10.4% USDA 0.9% Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%. PURCHASE & REFINANCE

MARKET RATE INDICES

Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity

Market Index Current Rate 1-Day Delta 7-Day DeltaDelta Since

2/18/20

30-YR Conforming 2.94%

30-YR Jumbo 3.11%

30-YR FHA 3.02%

30-YR VA 2.61%

Source: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) – optimalblue.com/obmmi2

2.4%

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.6%

3.8%

4.0%

4.2%

Page 3: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity€¦ · VA 10.4% USDA 0.9% Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%. PURCHASE & REFINANCE

30-YR CONFORMING TO 10-YR TREASURY RATE SPREAD

Market Index Current Value 1-Day Delta 7-Day DeltaDelta Since

2/18/20

10-YR Treasury 0.69%

30-YR Conforming 2.94%

10-YR to 30-YR Spread 2.25%

Source: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) – optimalblue.com/obmmiU.S. Department of the Treasury – treasury.gov

3

Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Page 4: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity€¦ · VA 10.4% USDA 0.9% Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%. PURCHASE & REFINANCE

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.6%

3.8%

4.0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

RATE LOCK VOLUME BY LOAN PURPOSE

Source: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) – optimalblue.com/obmmiOptimal Blue Market Analytics – optimalblue.com/market-analytics

Market Volume Index Current Value 1-Day % Change 7-Day % Change% Change Since

2/18/20

Purchase 119

Cash-out Refinance 44

Rate-Term Refinance 134

Total 296

Refinance Share* 59.9%

4

(Total Volume indexed to 100 on 1/2/2020)

OBMMI 30-YR Conf.

Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity

*Refinance Share changes reflect inter-period delta

Page 5: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity€¦ · VA 10.4% USDA 0.9% Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%. PURCHASE & REFINANCE

MIX OF BUSINESS BY LOAN PRODUCT

Source: Optimal Blue Market Analytics – optimalblue.com/market-analytics5

Loan Product Mix Current Value 1-Day Delta 7-Day DeltaDelta Since

2/18/20

Conforming 71.0%

Non-Conforming 8.5%

FHA 9.2%

VA 10.4%

USDA 0.9%

Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Page 6: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity€¦ · VA 10.4% USDA 0.9% Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%. PURCHASE & REFINANCE

PURCHASE & REFINANCE PULL-THROUGH RATES

Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity

Pull-through Rate Current Rate 1-Day Delta 7-Day DeltaDelta Since

2/18/20

Purchase Pull-through 80.9%

Refi Pull-through 76.2%

Source: Optimal Blue Hedge Analytics – optimalblue.com/hedge-analytics6

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

(5-Day Moving Average)

Page 7: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity€¦ · VA 10.4% USDA 0.9% Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%. PURCHASE & REFINANCE

BEST EFFORTS TO MANDATORY DELIVERY SPREADS

Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity

Best Efforts vs. Mandatory Current Spread 1-Day Delta 7-Day DeltaDelta Since

2/18/20

30-YR Conforming 51 bps

15-YR Conforming 54 bps

30-YR Government 27 bps

7

bps

20 bps

40 bps

60 bps

80 bps

100 bps

120 bps

140 bps

160 bps

180 bps

(5-Day Moving Average)

Source: Optimal Blue Hedge Analytics – optimalblue.com/hedge-analytics

Page 8: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity€¦ · VA 10.4% USDA 0.9% Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%. PURCHASE & REFINANCE

WHOLE LOAN DELIVERY TO 30-YR TBA SPREADS

Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity

8

(700 bps)

(600 bps)

(500 bps)

(400 bps)

(300 bps)

(200 bps)

(100 bps)

bps

100 bps

Source: Optimal Blue Hedge Analytics – optimalblue.com/hedge-analytics

(All Spreads indexed to 0 on 2/3/2020)

Whole Loan vs. 30-YR TBA Current Spread 1-Day Delta 7-Day Delta 4-Week Delta

Best Ex vs. UMBS 3.0 (163 bps)

Best Ex vs. GNMA 3.0 (182 bps)

Cash Window vs. UMBS 3.0 (47 bps)

Page 9: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity€¦ · VA 10.4% USDA 0.9% Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%. PURCHASE & REFINANCE

OPTIMAL BLUE DATA SOLUTIONS

Optimal Blue, LLC | optimalblue.com9

ENTERPRISE ANALYTICS

MARKET ANALYTICS

COMPETITIVE ANALYTICS

OPTIMAL BLUE MORTGAGE MARKET INDICES (OBMMI)

Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity

Page 10: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity€¦ · VA 10.4% USDA 0.9% Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%. PURCHASE & REFINANCE

LEGAL DISCLAIMER

© Optimal Blue and/or certain of its affiliates. All rights reserved.10

Daily Market Briefing: Mortgage Trends & Rate Activity

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