moraglio

Telecommunications: replacing or catalyzing mobility?

ICT and physical travel, from substitution to hybridization

By Massimo Moraglio - Berlin Technical University

IMTC – 2011 CTO Roundtable

Aims of this talk are to offer evidence about:

1. Integration, neutrality, substitution and reciprocal catalyzing between ICT and travel attitudes;

1. ICT and travel worlds NOT as a zero-sum game;

3. ICT and travel NOT as alternative kingdoms.

IMTC – 2011 CTO Roundtable

It is intuitive that an e-mail often substitutes a physical letter, and that a remote connection saves a “proper” trip.

In remoteness, often, the higher the level of reproduction of the degrees (and variety) of a face-to-face meeting, the higher its level of substitution. Video-conferencing is, in this respect, the most powerful tool.

1. Integration, neutrality, substitution and reciprocal catalyzing

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But…

The relationship between ICT and travel-based activities are definitely more complex and inextricable than it appears at first look.


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ICT's effects on travel behaviors

a. ICT can be NEUTRAL to travel behaviors (not every e-mail substitutes a letter; not every Skype call substitutes a trip).

Often the alternative to an ICT communication is not a “travel-based activity, but rather not conducting the activity at all”. (Mokhtarian 2003)


ICT effects on travel behaviors


a. ICT can indeed SUBSTITUTE travel.

I’m not in New Jersey right now, but I’m happily participating in the meeting anyway!


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a. ICT can indeed SUBSTITUTE travels.

a. ICT can CATALYZE physical travels.

“Think about the message, not about the messenger” Bell, the first telephone call and Mr. Watson (Mokhtarian 2007)


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a. ICT can CATALYZE physical travel.

Low cost flight companies can exist because of ICT;

Or, social networks increase relations and therefore travel-based activities; in other words, growing ICT fuels growing networking and thus physical travel.

Or, telecommuting leaves workers more time, who can then spend the spare time travelling (for pleasure)


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a. ICT can indeed SUBSTITUTE travels.

a. ICT can CATALYZE physical travels.

a. and vice versa, traveling catalyzes ICT.

The more I travel, the more ICT is required, both personally and as a infrastructural system.


In the past two centuries, growing ICT has been combined with a growing (physical) mobility. This trend is visible over the past three decades, and continues now.

Therefore expanding (more precise and developed) ICT does not necessarily lead to a reduction of trips, because travel also intensifies.

ICT and travel is NOT a zero-sum game.

2. NOT a zero-sum game

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Another good example is paper consumption.

Paper use has doubled, at least in the UK, despite (or because of) the strong development of ITC.

2. NOT a zero-sum game

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So what?

1. The relationship between ICT and travel is rather complex, convoluted and difficult to clarify.

3. ICT and travelling NOT as alternative kingdoms

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So what?

1. The relationship between ICT and travel is rather complex, convoluted and difficult to clarify.

2. But we can be sure, ICT and travel are NOT alternative kingdoms.

One affects the other.


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The technical availability of (cheap) ICT is pushing travelers to consume more ICT.


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The technical availability of (cheap) ICT is pushing (not paradoxically) people to travel more.


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The relationship between the two worlds of ICT and travel are also affected by the concept of MULTITASKING. (Kenyon and Lyons 2007)

Too often the travel time is considered “lost”; however, multitasking while traveling allows further activity.


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More concepts seem useful in analyzing ICT and travel.

- ICT allows “serial” travelers (who are increasing in number) to carry on life “in the mobility” (Lyons and Urry 2005);

- And let’s consider that physical mobility does not involve just the passengers, but all her/his network(s), often based in ICT;

- Even more, what is moving is not the person, it's the network.


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ICT is therefore not just a substitute for travel, but also instigates travels opportunities.

More inputs = more outputs = more networks = more ICT ( and also more travel)

A more mobile world, therefore will require more ICT, and more ICT will push, to some extent, more mobility.

ICT and travel are more hybridized every day.


Which trends?

The rise of energy costs is difficult to predict, but all experts bet on it.

Therefore, in the medium run, travel will be considerably more expensive.

Finale: which trends

Expensive energy does not necessarily mean less travel:

e.g. USA car use is a constant trend, despite increasing costs for fuel.

However, if such a price rise is unstoppable, there will be also a reduction in travel.


But the energy issue is not the only reason for an expansion of video-conferencing.

There is a broader awareness of social and environmental side-effects of travelling.

Even with constant energy prices, this ecological attention will lead to a large increase in video-conferencing.


Finally, companies quest for efficiency and cost control will push towards substituting travel with video-conferencing.

These substitutions are not just reductions in costs, but will also become a network factory, in turn increasing business and contacts (and travel!)


Thanks for your attention!

moraglio

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