monthly snapshot -nifty 50 - jan12 special report by

January Snapshot – Nifty 50

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CONTENTS

Latest Updates

Technical Analysis (M.A., PIVOTS, FIBO)

S&P CNX Nifty

Bank Nifty Future

BSE Sensex

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Latest Updates

07nd Dec –

Chairman of McNally said that they recently bagged a landmark Rs 120 crore order

which will mark the company’s entry into the road sector. The Company also bagged

a smaller order worth Rs 20 crore for extension of a material handling plant which

was set up earlier.

08th Dec -

The food inflation sharply eased to 6.60% in the year to Nov 26, government data on

Thursday showed, from an annual 8.00% in the previous week. The annual fuel

inflation remained unchanged at 15.53% in the latest week, data showed. The

primary articles price index was up 6.92%, compared with an annual rise of 7.74% in

the prior week.

09th Dec -

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that surging food and fuel prices amid weak

global economic growth are adversely impacting GDP growth of the country.

Business sentiments are down. Food inflation and high fuel costs in times of weak

global growth are taking a heavy toll on the economies of many emerging countries,

including India.

12th Dec –

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a de-growth of 5.1% in October 2011,

relative to the 11.3% growth in October 2010, extending the slowdown in industrial

growth witnessed in the recent months (9.5% in June 2011, 3.7% in July 2011, 3.6%

in August 2011 and 2.0% in September 2011).



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13th Dec –

Parliament's Standing Committee on finance has opposed the government's

proposal to hike the FDI limit for insurance companies to 49%. The house panel's

report, which was tabled in parliament today, says that the panel cannot support FDI

hike in insurance.

17th Dec –

Against the food subsidy budget of Rs 60,572 crore for the current fiscal, the

government has already released Rs 45,125 crore towards it by December 15. The

food subsidy bill was Rs 62,929,56 crore in 2010-11 and Rs 58,242.45 crore in the

previous fiscal, Food and Public Distribution Minister K V Thomas said in during the

Question Hour.

21st Dec -

Ratings agency Moody's on Wednesday unified India's local and foreign currency bond

ratings at Baa3 and said the outlook on the ratings was stable

22nd Dec –

Tractor India's July-September quarter (Q2) gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.9%,

slowest growth in nine quarters. The economic deceleration is expected to continue in

October-December quarter (Q3), says Montek Singh Ahluwalia.

23rd Dec –

India's inflation is expected to ease to between 6 and 7% by March, Finance Minister

Pranab Mukherjee said on Friday, a day after data showed a sharp easing in food

inflation.



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24th Dec –

The country's foreign exchange reserves fell by a whopping USD 4.67 billion to USD

302.1 billion in the week ending December 16 on the back of a dip in foreign currency

assets, the Reserve Bank said here today.

26th Dec –

India's infrastructure sector output grew 6.8% in November from a year earlier, sharply

higher than the annual growth of 3.7% in November last year, government data showed

on Monday. During April-November, the first eight months of the current 2011/12

financial year, the output rose 4.6%, compared with an annual rise of 5.6% a year ago,

data showed. The infrastructure sector accounts for 37.9% of India's industrial output.

27th Dec –

The union government's decision to sell Rs15000 crore of bonds on December 30 in an

unscheduled auction will not increase its overall market borrowing for the second half of

this fiscal year, a senior government official with direct knowledge of the matter told

Reuters on Monday.

28th Dec –

The food inflation eased to 0.42%, its lowest in nearly six years at least, and fuel

inflation slowed to 14.37% in the year to December 17, government data on Thursday

showed. In the previous week, annual food and fuel inflation stood at 1.81% and

15.24%, respectively. The primary articles price index was up 2.70%, compared with

an annual rise of 3.78% a week earlier. India's headline inflation has stayed above 9%

for a year, despite 13 rate increases by the central bank since March 2010.



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TECHNICAL VIEW

Moving averages

Moving Averages 21 Day 50 Day 100 Day 200 Day

Daily 4731 4851 4944 5213

Weekly 4941 5268 5401 4767

Fibonacci retracement levels (Weekly)

SCRIPT 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%

NIFTY 6336 5377 4777 4300 3815 2252

Weekly Pivot

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

Nifty 5430 5227 5024 4945 4820 4741 4617 4413 4210

Monthly Pivot


Nifty 5868 5501 5133 5000 4765 4632 4398 4030 3662



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Weekly Analysis :- S&P CNX NIFTY

If we look at a broader chart of Nifty, we can see it is working quite well with

retracement of its rally started from 2252 (Nov 2008) to its peak at 6336 (Nov 2010).

Nifty this month is expected to be sustain the consolidation phase or may go up due to

following reasons:-

Nifty currently has breached its retracement level of 38.2% and has given a

closing above this retracement, from past three weeks it is resisting that level, but

now this has breached that level indicating strength in the near term.

This week it has given closing above its 200 weeks moving average hence that

level would act as an important support level which may support Nifty to go up.

Nifty currently is following a downward channel making lower top & lower

bottoms, Nifty after making lower bottom has now taken support of this level

&now is ready to go up to make its new lower top i.e. near its upward resistance

line which is at 5170-5200.



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Last week Nifty gave a closing before its 200 weeks moving average and if in coming

weeks it trades above it; then we can see further short-term uptrend. Also it has given

closing above its 38.2% retracement hence may see see a short term push up rally to

5150-5200 where it could resist its upward resistance line drawn from peak of 6336,

breaking which further we can see a upward momentum to test its 23.6% retracement

which comes near 5400. Moreover it may range in between 4640-5150.

Bank Nifty

Moving averages


Daily 8355 8684 9104 10074

Weekly 9116 10178 10390 8441


SCRIPT 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%

Bank Nifty 13320 10945 9505 8305 7150 3290

Weekly Pivot


Bank Nifty 11097 10324 9551 9255 8778 8482 8005 7232 6459

Monthly Pivot


Bank Nifty 12566 11242 9918 9438 8594 8114 7270 5946 4622



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Weekly Analysis :- BANK NIFTY

Here we had applied a retracement on weekly chart of Bank Nifty started from 3290

(Mar 2009) to its peak at 13320 (Nov 2010). Bank Nifty this month if may sustain this

level or might been able to go forward, following are some key factors:-

Bank Nifty recently has broken its retracement level of 50%(8300) and has given

closing above its 50% retracement, last week it has broken the level of 50%,

hence if continued may test the retracement level of 38.2% (which is at around

9500).

Bank Nifty this week has also broken its 200 weeks moving average and has

given the closing above that hence it is expected that this level may act as an

support level resulting a short term upward momentum.

Bank Nifty currently is following an downward channel making lower top & lower

bottoms currently has taken support of its lower support level, and is now ready

to make new lower top in order to continue its trend .



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Bank Nifty this month has given its closing above its 50% retracement level, it has given

closing above its 200 weeks moving average as well, level and in the coming weeks we

can see upside expecting to trade above 50% retracement to test its 38.2% retracement

which is around 9500. But, If Bank Nifty would not be able to sustain here and trades

below 8400-8200 in the coming weeks then we can see a short term downfall to 8100-

7800. Moreover Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 8150-9850.

BSE Sensex

Moving averages


Daily 15792 16175 16455 17396

Weekly 16455 17554 18000 15878


SCRIPT 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%

Sensex 21108 17980 15980 14410 12810 10870

Weekly Pivot


Sensex 17767 17188 16609 16382 16030 15803 15451 14872 14293

Monthly Pivot


Sensex 19214 18092 16971 16563 15849 15441 14728 13606 12485



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Weekly Analysis

If we look at a broader chart of Sensex, we can see it is working quite well with

retracement of its rally started from 7698 (Nov 2008) to its peak at 21108 (Nov 2010).

Sensex this month is expected to be sustain the consolidation phase or may go up due

to following reasons:-

This month it has crossed its 200 weeks moving average hence that level would

act as an important support level and may go up from this point.

Sensex has breached the retracement level of 38.2% and has given a closing

very well above this retracement and it may further extend uptrend to test the

retracement level of 23.6% which is around 18000.

Sensex currently is following an downward channel

making lower top & lower bottoms & after testing its support line has retrace from

this level to make its new lower top i.e. near its upward resistance line which is at

around 17500-17600 hence we may see an short term upward rally.



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monthly snapshot -nifty 50 - jan12 special report by

Economy & Finance

annual food

annual growth

food inflation

indias inflation

fuel inflation

financial year

annual fuelinflation

indias headline inflation