monthly market report dec

7/30/2019 Monthly Market Report DEC

1/27

Monthly Market Watch

for Maricopa CountyAn overview of what is happening

in the Maricopa County real estate market

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners Statistics from DECEMBER 2012 MLS

$29.95


2/27

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional PartnersStatistics from DECEMBER 2012 MLS

Report overview

:

This report includes MLS data for thepast 36 months in Maricopa County only

as provided by the FlexMLS system.

Please note that searches fluctuate daily when running these reports;these figures were obtained on 1/3/13.

A reminder that you need to meet with a real estate professionalto see how statistics impact the area where you are considering selling or buying

blended statistics will not be as accurate as a more detailed report

that your real estate professional can provideto help you with your decision making.


3/27


Clos

edSale

s

P

rovidedbyKellerWilliamsRealtyProfess

ionalPartners

Statisticsfr

omDECEMBER2012

MLS

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1/10 to 12/10 5829 5777 7871 8040 8112 8186 6314 6570 5979 5844 5971 7420

1/11 to 12/11 5765 6317 8668 8273 8710 9879 7598 7775 7193 6756 6418 7010

1/12 to 12/12 5713 6436 7859 7450 7533 7694 6324 6713 5803 6232 6053 6280

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr May

June

July

Aug

SepOct

NovDec

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Total # of Closed Sales

(36 month overview)


4/27


Closed Sales Report Analysis

:Sellers:

As is typical in the month of December, we saw an increase in the number of closedsales for the month. December saw an increase of 3.7% increase over the month of

November. The statistics show that we had 6,280 residential homes sell in the month ofDecember in Maricopa County. Although there was an increase over the prior month,this is the lowest number of sales in the month of December in the 3-year reporting

period.

Buyers:For buyers, this means that homes are continuing to sell. Buyers should continue tocarefully work with their real estate professional to understand the market AND how

they can compete with the market demand and other buyers who may be in a financialposition that is more appealing to the seller.


5/27


Distre

ssedSa

les

P


ionalPartners

Statisticsfr

omDECEMBER2012

MLS

REO SALES12%

SHORT SALES

27%NON-

DISTRESSED

SALES

61%

REO, SHORT SALE & NON-DISTRESSED SALES COMPARISONDECEMBER 2012

REO SALES

SHORT SALES

NON-DISTRESSED SALES


6/27


Distressed Sales Analysis

:A bank owned/foreclosure home is one that the seller no longer owns

it has been taken over by the lender(s) who had a note on thehome. Short sales are homes where the seller is negotiating with thebank to forgive a portion of the debt in order to avoid foreclosure.

The market continues to shift, as we saw 61% of salesin the month of December classified as non-distressed sales.

Bank-owned sales decreased slightly from 12.4% to 12%, and shortsales increased from 23.7% to 26.9%. Sellers and buyers

need to monitor this trend to see how the market continues torespond to the current inventory.


7/27


Pend

ingSales

P


ionalPartners

Statisticsfr

omDECEMBER2012

MLS


1/10 to 12/10 6204 6975 11584 8946 5905 5772 5855 5936 5861 5674 6125 5595

1/11 to 12/11 6932 7350 8969 8207 8252 7603 6710 7246 5901 5862 5532 5069

1/12 to 12/12 6514 6642 7260 6656 6215 5687 5378 5664 4906 5613 4992 4580

JanFeb

Mar

Apr

MayJune

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

NovDec

0

3000

6000

9000

12000Total # of Pending Sales (36 month overview)

1/10 to 12/10

1/11 to 12/11

1/12 to 12/12


8/27


Pending Sales Analysis:Sellers:

Pending sales in December decreased by 8.3% over the month of November for a totalof 4,580 homes moving to under contract status. Sellers should continue to monitor

these numbers to determine what type of activity there should be on their homes,as we normally see this number drop in the fall months.

Buyers:This stat is an indicator that buyer activity continues to remain very high even at a

time of year when closed sales tend to level off. Educated and savvy buyers understandthat a competitive market gives them fewer options for home choices,negotiating on price AND looking for concessions from a seller.

Although this may vary from area to area AND from price range to price range,buyers need to make sure they are fully informed regarding the individual market in

which they have an interest. This will give them the best chance of being competitivein the search for a home.


9/27


AverageSalesPrice

P


ionalPartners

StatisticsfromDECEMBER2012

MLS


1/10 to 12/10 $182,387 $181,472 $187,979 $180,896 $184,312 $188,568 $181,730 $171,036 $165,730 $170,326 $167,154 $163,403

1/11 to 12/11 $163,403 $162,283 $165,559 $167,850 $165,431 $165,035 $160,463 $155,656 $159,762 $158,517 $165,881 $168,365

1/12 to 12/12 $170,133 $172,603 $188,088 $197,336 $210,145 $205,624 $204,057 $196,857 $205,686 $211,537 $211,852 $218,945

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

JuneJuly

Aug

Sep

Oct Nov Dec

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

$220,000

Average Sales Price (36 month overview)

1/10 to 12/10

1/11 to 12/11

1/12 to 12/12


10/27


Average Sales Price Analysis:Sellers:

After several months of a decrease in the average sales price, the months of September throughDecember continually increase. Last month saw the average sales price of a home in Maricopa county

increase by $7,093! The month of December showed an increase in the average sales price from

$211,852 to $218,945; this is the highest average in the 36-month reporting period. Sellers should becareful and continue to watch this trend as they are pricing homes in todays market.

Just because the average sales price has shown an increase does not mean that sellers are automaticallygetting more for their homes it could simply mean that homes are selling at a higher price because the

lower priced inventory has been dramatically reduced.

Buyers:For buyers, it is absolutely critical to be aware of this shift in the price of homes.

Just a little over one year ago, the average sales price was $158,517. That means the average hasincreased over 38% in just one year! If that trend continued for another 12 months, the average price

could be as high as $300,000 next year! As prices increase, buyers may find it more and more difficult tofind a home that is affordable. Interest rates remain low, so buyers still have the edge in financing

options. More than ever, you need to work with your real estate professional to make sure you have thebest possible information regarding the market value of homes and to carefully monitor this trend to see

how it will impact the availability, pricing, and terms associated with purchasing a home.


11/27


A

verageD

aysonM

arket

P

rovidedbyKellerWi

lliamsRealtyProfess

ionalPartners


MLS


1/10 to 12/10 93 100 102 101 97 99 100 102 107 104 106 115

1/11 to 12/11 112 116 114 109 105 106 98 98 94 92 89 95

1/12 to 12/12 90 91 91 86 83 73 71 67 66 68 62 69

Jan FebMar

Apr

May

JuneJuly

Aug Sep

Oct Nov

Dec

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Average Days on Market (36 month overview)

1/10 to 12/10

1/11 to 12/11

1/12 to 12/12


12/27


Average Days on Market:Sellers:

Since March, we had seen the average time a home remains on the market decrease. As is typicalin December we saw this number increase last month it increased by 7 days to an average

of 69 days on the market for homes that sold. Considering we were at 139 days a few years ago,there is no doubt the current market is having an impact on how quickly homes are selling.

Well-priced homes continue to go under contract within a very short period of time.If a home isnt selling in todays market, there is no doubt that it is because

buyers see the price as being too high.

BuyersBuyers beware! When inventory remains on the market for fewer days, it means that sellers

are continuing to have more success selling their homes. The lower the number, the less controla buyer normally has. Although we saw an increase in December, average number of days is stillonly 69 days. Buyers need to be aware that competition for great homes continues to remain very

high, especially in the lower price ranges. The importance of having a reliable lender AND real

estate professional to guide you through this process has never been more important.


13/27


A

verageList

toSalesPr

iceRatio

P

rovidedbyKellerWi

lliamsRealtyProfess

ionalPartners


MLS


1/10 to 12/10 95.46% 95.50% 97.17% 97.01% 96.16% 96.00% 95.72% 96.13% 95.45% 95.49% 95.78% 94.40%

1/11 to 12/11 95.05% 95.18% 95.18% 95.58% 96.03% 96.60% 96.60% 96.60% 98.10% 96.68% 96.77% 96.15%

1/12 to 12/12 96.56% 96.92% 95.60% 96.70% 97.24% 97.93% 97.19% 97.98% 98.64% 98.04% 97.77% 97.42%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

94.00%

94.50%

95.00%

95.50%

96.00%

96.50%

97.00%

97.50%

98.00%

98.50%

99.00%Average List to Sales Price RaQo (36 month overview)

1/10 to 12/10

1/11 to 12/11

1/12 to 12/12


14/27


List to Sales Price Ratio Analysis:Sellers:

From March to June, we saw this ratio steadily increasing and then a drop in July. August saw this number rebound --September saw it significantly increase and and become the highest number in the 36-month reporting period -

to 98.64%. October & November saw the number dip ending at 97.77%. Again, as is typical for the month of December,

we saw this number continue to decrease to 97.42% This is the ratio a seller receives when selling his/her home ascompared to the price where the home was. The higher the number, the closer the final sales price is to the listing price.With the competitive nature of the market, this ratio still remains very high, and in homes priced under $150,000, we areseeing this ratio remainABOVE 100% -- that means buyers in those price ranges, on average, are paying MORE for ahouse than the list price of the home. Continue to watch this trend, as it will continue to impact how homes should be

priced in the current market in order to appeal to the buyers.

Buyers:Buyers need to pay attention. As this average remains very close to 100%, on lower priced/highly desirable properties,

buyers are discovering more and more in the lower price ranges that they may have to pay above list price AND they arecompeting with investors who are bringing cash to the transaction. Since a home must appraise in order to obtain a loan,

underwriters are still looking very closely at prices and making sure that homes are selling at or below market value.This could mean that investors have an advantage if they are willing to pay higher than the list price.

Make sure your real estate professional helps you understand the competitiveness of the list price of the home you arewanting to purchase. You also need to be aware of the interest and sales activity in the area where you are wanting to

buy and how the offer you are making competes with the market AND with trends relative to the price where homes areselling in the areas you have an interest.


15/27


MonthlyExpir

ed&Cancelle

dListings

P


ionalPartners


MLS


1/10 to 12/10 3,532 3,235 4,139 3,413 3,951 4,603 4,167 4,311 4,323 4,311 3,697 4,701

1/11 to 12/11 4,046 3,407 4,180 3,488 3,468 3,233 2,484 2,358 2,089 1,936 1,957 2,407

1/12 to 12/12 1,876 1,698 1,868 1,713 1,997 1,788 1,787 1,848 1,709 1,935 1,737 2,696

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June July

Aug

Sep

OctNov

Dec

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Monthly Expired and Cancelled LisQngs (36 month overview)

1/10 to12/101/11 to

12/111/12 to

12/12


16/27


Expired & Cancelled Listing Analysis:Sellers:

This statistic had remained fairly constant over the past 12 months.As we see in prior years, however, December saw a spike in the number of expired and cancelled listings to a

total of 2,696. That is 2,696 homes leaving the market without being sold. The lower this number,the better sellers are in succeeding in selling their homes.

Sellers should remain very focused on monitoring their local market to ensurethat they are pricing homes and offering terms that are appealing to buyers.

Buyers:For buyers, be aware that there are 2,696 fewer homes to consider.

At a time when inventory continues to shrink, this means an even tighter market for buyers.Buyers can expect more competition and less room for negotiation

on price and/or concessions from sellers. A shrinking market means that savvy buyerswill understand that they need to be prepared to act quickly on available homes and

now that the ability to get a deal on this inventory is more than likely not an option.Continue to watch this trend, as this, combined with price, days on market,

and list to sales price ratio are an important indicator of what buyers need to doin order to be successful in closing on the home of their dreams.


17/27


Inventory Overview:


18/27


New

Listing

s

P


ionalPartners

StatisticsfromDECEMBER2012MLS


1/10 to 12/10 11382 11037 12684 11861 10036 10669 10744 11255 11116 10726 9716 8363

1/11 to 12/11 10887 9436 10843 9586 9109 9179 8227 9002 8504 8593 7590 6485

1/12 to 12/12 8745 7789 8334 7975 8092 8200 7693 8277 7821 8637 7428 5607

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May June

July

Aug

Sep

OctNov

Dec

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

New LisQngs (by month)

1/10 to 12/10

1/11 to 12/11

1/12 to 12/12


19/27


New Listings Analysis:Sellers:

The month of December saw 5,607 new homes enter the market, a significant decrease of 25%over the month of November. This does follow the pattern of the past 2 years as we finished the

year and sellers decided not to list during the holidays. Sellers should monitor this new inventoryto see how it might impact the sale of their home more competition COULD mean prices andterms may need to become more competitive, especially in certain price ranges. In this great

market, it is even more important that sellers need to make sure they remain as the top choice for

active buyers in the marketplace.If your home is not selling in this aggressive market, it is more than likely a pricing issue

buyers are still looking for the best value possible.

Buyers:Buyers pay attention! November brought you 5,607 more options! This is the lowest number in the36-month reporting period, so understand that this will impact the number of options buyers have

in purchasing a home. More than ever, it is essential that you take advantage of this newinventory. Spend time with and listen to your real estate professional to develop your strategy for

succeeding in a market that is constantly changing.


20/27


Activ

eListin

gs

ProvidedbyKellerWilliamsRealtyProfess

ionalPartners


Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1/10 to 12/10 34,906 35,114 34,426 32,728 32,970 34,224 36,097 37,754 38,838 39,176 38,876 37,159

1/11 to 12/11 36,299 34,991 32,485 29,785 23,477 17,816 19,941 22,864 19,467 19,781 22,773 18,378

12/1 to 12/12 17,581 13,268 11,310 10,196 9,785 9,946 10,482 11,118 12,300 13,704 14,252 17,256

Jan

Feb

MarApr

May JunJul Aug

SepOct Nov Dec

8,000

13,000

18,000

23,000

28,000

33,000

38,000

AcQve LisQngs in ARMLS (36 month Summary - ResidenQal inARMLS)

1/10 to 12/10

1/11 to 12/11

12/1 to 12/12


21/27


Active Listings Analysis:Sellers:

In December, the number of active listings for sale increased by 3,004 homes when compared tothe month of November a total of 17,256 residential active listings in Maricopa County. This is thehighest number we have seen since January of 2012 AND it did not follow the normal trend we see

in December when inventory decreases. Sellers need to make sure that they continue to watchthis trend -- we have seen a steady increase in inventory, meaning that sellers will have more

competition in todays market. Using a real estate consultant is essential to determine how homesshould be priced in order to be competitive AND the terms that will need to be available

for prospective buyers in order to take advantage of this market.

Buyers:The current market means that buyers continue to have more homes to consider than in priormonths. Continue to monitor this statistic, as it WILL be the statistic that indicates how much

inventory you will have to preview and how quickly you will need to act the lower the number,

the more likely the competitiveness for lower priced homes will remain part of the current market.As always, market activity is local and should be researched with your real estate professional to

determine the activity and desirability of the homes that are of interest to you.


22/27


Months

ofInve

ntory


ionalPartners


Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1/10 to 12/10 5.99 6.08 4.37 4.07 4.06 4.18 5.72 5.75 6.50 6.70 6.51 5.01

1/11 to 12/11 6.30 5.54 3.75 3.60 2.70 1.80 2.62 2.94 2.71 2.93 3.55 2.62

1/12 to 12/12 3.08 2.06 1.44 1.37 1.30 1.29 1.66 1.66 2.12 2.20 2.35 2.75

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr May Jun

Jul Aug

SepOct

Nov

Dec

1.00

2.50

4.00

5.50

7.00

Months of inventory (36 month overview)

1/10 to12/101/11 to12/111/12 to12/12


23/27


Months of Inventory Analysis:

Sellers:December saw an increase of 4/10 of a month in the months of housing inventory. We ended the month with

2.75 months the highest this number has been since January of 2012. This statistic means, that on average,we continue to remain in a strong sellers market that is identified when this statistic reflects less than 5 months

of inventory. However, this increase should be monitored very carefully. Although this traditionally meansthat sellers will have more control in a sales transaction than the buyer, it is essential that you are meeting with

your real estate professional to determine the ACTUAL market in your area. You may find that you havemore or less control than the average.

Buyers:Buyers will want to monitor this as well, as it indicates that inventory has increased, but still falls into

a strong sellers market. A sellers market traditionally gives less control to buyers and can createsignificant competition for the current inventory. The current low inventory is resulting in homes selling

more quickly, at a higher price, and with fewer concessions for buyers. However, the type of marketwill vary from price range to price range and even area to area. Work with your real estate professional

to make sure you understand the type of market you are in.


24/27


Total Market Overview:

Sellers:This report provides a detailed breakdown of homes in Maricopa County

based on price by determining the price range where your homeSHOULD sell, you can see what the average list to sales price ratio is,the average days on market, and more importantly, the percentage of

homes selling in that price range. Note that as the price increases,so does the days on market AND the list to sales price ratio decreases.

You will also see a lower percentage of homes selling as the price increases.

Buyers:By reviewing the price range where you are purchasing, you can determine

what the average home is selling for vs. list price.This should help you make better and more acceptable offers

based on the current market.


25/27


T

otalMarketOverview


ionalPartners



26/27


SummaryComm

ents

ProvidedbyKellerWilliamsRealtyProfessionalPartners


IMPORTANTINFORMATION:

Although these reports are beneficial in understanding the generalmarket in Maricopa County, it is essential that you meet with

your real estate professional to study these same figures in your area,as statistics will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

As you make decisions related to the purchase or sale of a home, it isimportant that you understand how the current real estate trends will

impact your decisions. Your real estate professional is available to helpyou monitor and interpret them to make sure that you are taking

advantage of the current market whether you are selling OR buying.


27/27


To ensure that you receive these market updates on a regular basis, please contact yourreal estate professional or contact Susan Kraemer at (623) 229-6167

monthly market report dec

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