monthly food security update for the sahel and west africa ... · october 2006 record agropastoral...

Monthly Food Security Update for the Sahel and West Africa OCTOBER 2006

Record agropastoral production forecast for the Sahel and West Africa for 2006-2007

Summary The good production forecasts issued for the Sahel and West Africa in September of this year were corroborated by the improvement in rainfall conditions since the end of July. The improvement helped make up for a large part of the rainfall deficits reported early in the season. This year, the Sahel is expecting a record gross grain harvest, as estimated by national farm survey agencies, of 15,062,600 MT. This figure is up 3 percent from 2005-2006 and 19 percent above the five-year average. Several countries are showing sizeable gains in rice production in the wake of the special programs conducted in these countries and, in particular, the use of NERICA (“New Rice for Africa”) varieties of rice. Sorghum, which was used by farmers to replace millet, maize and cotton crops in the face of the late start-of-season, is also up. Gross production figures for all countries are up from last year, with the exception of figures for Mauritania and Senegal, which are showing production shortfalls of 13 percent and 23 percent, respectively, due in part to the reduction in the size of areas planted in grain and the delay in the provision of farm inputs (seeds and fertilizer) in Senegal, as well as to the late start-of-season, plant health issues and the virtual absence of “walo” (flood recession) crops in Mauritania. Despite a record gross production figure, estimated average per capita production for 2006 is comparable to last year’s figure, although it is 10 percent above the average for the last five years. Per capita production for this crop year should run above the five-year average in Cape Verde (by 1 percent), Mali, (by 9 percent), Burkina Faso and Mauritania (by 10 percent), Niger (by 7 percent), Gambia (by 17 percent), Chad (by 24 percent) and Guinea Bissau (by 29 percent), but is 9 percent below the five-year average in Senegal. Moreover, estimated production levels for a number of other non-Sahelian West African countries (Benin, Guinea Conakry, Nigeria and Togo) are equally satisfactory, which points to a good region-wide pattern of grain availability. Right now, market supplies are ample and prices are coming down in all countries. As of the end of October, in general, price levels were lower than at the same time last year and running below the five-year average for the same time of year. With the expected surpluses in Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria, Niger and Chad, prices will, most likely, come down even further, which will continue to improve household food access. An effort to quickly rebuild food security reserves and replenish grain banks at harvest time should help temper any dramatic plunge in prices that would be to the detriment of farmers. Finally, we cannot allow the good food outlook for 2006-2007 to obscure the existence of pockets of villages and population groups experiencing food insecurity problems due to losses of cropland to flooding, predators and a shorter than usual rainy season. Early warning systems in area countries are already working to better target impacted communities and population groups.

RESEAU DE SYSTEMES D’ALERTE PRECOCE CONTRE LA FAMINE DE L’USAID USAID FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NET WORK

www.fews.net

COMITE PERMANENT INTER-ETATS DE LUTTE CONTRE LA SECHERESSE

DANS LE SAHEL

PERMANENT INTERSTATE COMMITTEE FOR DROUGHT CONTROL

IN THE SAHEL

www.cilssnet.org

The Sahel and West Africa: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE OCTOBER 2006

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The combination of generally satisfactory agro-climatic conditions between July and October and farmer know-how has produced a good harvest in the Sahel An examination of rainfall estimates, corroborated by field data, shows a poor spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season, causing crops to be planted late and raising serious concerns over the outcome of the growing season. There was a pick-up in rainstorm activity beginning in the second half of July, with significant amounts of precipitation and a well-balanced spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall well into the second dekad of September. This favorable pattern of rainfall created good water conditions which met the water requirements of crops and natural pasture in nearly all parts of the region. The combination of good rainfall conditions in the second part of the growing season and farmer use of coping strategies (such as the planting of short-cycle varieties of crops and/or pulses such as cowpeas in the face of a late start-of-season) helped cushion the negative effects of the long dry spells and planting delays reported early in the season. On the whole, the 2006-2007 growing season was divided into three phases: A botched start-of-season, which normally begins sometime in May or June, that never got off the ground in many parts of the Sahel due to inadequate rainfall: As illustrated in Figures 1a and 1b, until the first dekad of July, the corridor between Lake Chad and Senegal, including a large portion of northwestern Nigeria, northern Benin and an area centered around Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, were reporting inadequate, sporadic rainfall.

Figure 1a: Cumulative rainfall estimates for the period from the first dekad of May to the first dekad of July 2006

Figure 1b: Anomalies in cumulative rainfall estimates for the period from the first dekad of May to the first dekad of July 2006, compared with the average for the same time of year

Source: NOAA; Map by USGS/Sahel Regional, corroborated by FEWS NET Source: NOAA; Map by USGS/Sahel Regional, corroborated by FEWS NET

The definitive start-of-season and followed by a period of good crop growth and development which started in the second dekad of July and continued up to the second dekad of September: This period, as illustrated in Figures 1c and 1d, was marked by generally heavy precipitation and a well-balanced spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall. As a result, the serious concerns over the outcome of the growing season gradually gave way to optimism as, little by little, the number of large rainfall deficit areas dwindled, leaving only a few small pockets of rainfall deficits, mostly in western Niger, eastern Burkina Faso, southwestern Mali, the far eastern reaches of Senegal and an area centered around Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and the western half of Ivory Coast. Moreover, farmers took advantage of the increase in rainfall to adjust their crop rotation schemes in keeping with the progress of the growing season. An extremely crucial final phase in a number of areas allowing for the maturation of late-planted crops: In this third and final phase, in some areas, the rains continued into the middle of October. As illustrated in Figures 1e and 1f, conditions during this period helped reduce the size of rainfall deficit areas, particularly in eastern Burkina Faso, southwestern Mali and eastern Senegal. However, the southwestern Tillabery region of Niger, the far eastern reaches of Senegal, the southwestern reaches of Mali, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and western Ivory Coast continued to show cumulative rainfall deficits into the middle of October. Elsewhere, in general, rainfall rates ranged from normal to above-normal.


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Figure 1d: Anomalies in cumulative rainfall estimates for the period from the second dekad of July to the third dekad of September 2006, compared with the average for the same time of year

Figure 1c: Cumulative rainfall estimates for the period from the second dekad of July to the third dekad of September 2006


Figure 1e: Cumulative rainfall estimates for the period from the second dekad of July to the third dekad of October 2006

Figure 1f: Anomalies in cumulative rainfall estimates for the period from the second dekad of July to the third dekad of October 2006, compared with the average for the same time of year


Record grain production in the Sahel and equally good conditions in livestock-raising areas The projected total grain production figure for the Sahelian countries for the 2006/2007 growing season is 15,062,600 MT. If this figure is realized, the Sahel will have a record gross grain harvest, 3 percent larger than the 2005/2006 harvest and 19 percent above the average level of production for the last five years. Gross production figures for all Sahelian countries are expected to be up from last year, except in Mauritania and Senegal (see Figure 2a), which are expecting production shortfalls of 13 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Gross production figures for all countries in the region, with the exception of Senegal, are above average for the last five years. Moreover, production estimates for other non-Sahelian West African countries such as Benin, Guinea Conakry, Nigeria and Togo are equally satisfactory, which points to a good region-wide pattern of grain availability. The 2006/2007 grain production forecast for Nigeria is 27,899,000 MT, up from 25,870,000 MT in 2005 and 24,178,000 MT in 2004. We find the same trend in per capita production. Thus, region-wide per capita production in the Sahel is estimated at 232 kg, which is comparable to the figure for the 2005/2006 season and 10 percent above the five-year average. More specifically, per capita production (see Figure 2b) should run above the five-year average in Burkina Faso (by 10 percent), Cape Verde (by 1 percent), Gambia (by 17 percent), Guinea Bissau (by 29 percent), Mali (by 9 percent),


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Mauritania (by 10 percent), Niger (by 7 percent) and Chad (by 24 percent). Only in Senegal is it expected to run 9 percent below the five-year average. Conditions in livestock-raising areas are equally satisfactory, where the rains lasted well into the third dekad of September. Conditions are also conducive to the growing of off-season crops, which could strengthen region-wide food security.

Figure 2a: Comparison of the gross production forecast with the production figure for the 2005 season and the average for 2001-2005 (base 100)

Figure 2b: Comparison of the per capita production forecast with the production figure for the 2005 season and the average for 2001-2005 (base 100)

Source: CILSS/AGRHYMET/FEWS NET Sahel Regional Source: CILSS/AGRHYMET/FEWS NET Sahel Regional Well-stocked grain markets are working to the advantage of consumers Currently, market supplies are ample and business is brisk, with markets crowded with farmers and traders. During this time of widespread harvests, grain prices are trending steadily downwards, particularly on cross-border markets such as Maradi in Niger, Jibia, Illéla, Mai Adua and Damassak in Nigeria and Malanville in Benin. October prices on the Maradi market (see Figure 3a) are down from 2005 and 2004 and running below the average for this time of year. This partially explains the presence of Nigerian traders on markets around the region as part of their traditional annual livestock-building efforts. In many cases, the large numbers of traders on certain markets is upsetting the balance between local supply and demand, causing the prices of grain and other crops to inch upwards or downwards, as demand outstrips supply or vice versa. This same situation could continue over the next few months and is completely normal during this ideal livestock-building period. Nevertheless, current trends are very different from prevailing conditions at the time of the 2004 harvest (see Figure 3c), which were responsible for that year’s high prices, whose effects were felt up until the 2005 harvest (see Figure 3b). In general, prices are still trending downwards, in contrast to the situation in 2004 when prices jumped back up immediately after the harvest, triggering the market crisis of 2005. Moreover, the fact that prices on cross-border markets are currently higher in Nigeria than in Niger is noteworthy. This can be explained, in part, by the strengthening of the exchange rate for the “naira,” which is currently at around 250 to 255 “nairas” per 1,000 CFA francs, compared with 275 to 300 “nairas” at the same time last year. Another explanation for the higher grain prices in Nigeria, compared with price levels in Niger, is the Nigerian government’s supply management policy of using livestock-building as a way of ensuring that farmers have high incomes. This policy calls for yearly livestock-building efforts at three different levels, including:

i.) Awareness-raising activities targeted at a million farms for the building of one-ton on-farm grain reserves; ii.) The building of a 10,000 MT reserve at the state level; iii.) The building of a one-million-ton National Strategic Food Reserve at the federal level. Most likely, part of the

grain crops being purchased by Nigerian traders in Niger, right now, is earmarked for this reserve.


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Figure 3b: Trends in millet prices on selected cross-border markets in Benin, Niger and Nigeria at harvest time in 2005

Figure 3a: Trends in millet prices on selected cross-border markets in Benin, Niger and Nigeria at harvest time in 2006

Source of data: SIMA (Agricultural Market Information System) Niger; Graphic by FEWS NET Sahel


Figure 3c: Trends in millet prices on selected cross-border markets in Benin, Niger and Nigeria at harvest time in 2004

Figure 3d: General trends in millet prices on selected cross-border markets in Benin, Niger and Nigeria at harvest time, over the last five years



We find the same trend on the N’Djamena market in Chad, as well as on the Dawanu market, a wholesale market in Nigeria (Figures 3e and 3f). In general, October grain prices are down from 2005 and 2004 and below the five-year average for the same time of year. The upcoming Muslim and Christian holidays at the end of the year are an added incentive for farmers to sell off any surplus crops in order to buy other staples. Prices will most likely continue to drop between now and December, which is generally referred to as the post-harvest and post-holiday season. Following the lead of Nigeria, Sahelian countries should consider taking steps to ensure the due and proper marketing of any surplus crops around the region, particularly in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Chad, to make sure that local farmers have sufficiently lucrative markets for their produce. Envisioned activities could be aimed at quickly strengthening national food security reserves. Other programs could be mounted as part of efforts to strengthen existing grain banks so as to ensure proper transfers of food crops from surplus to deficit areas. We advise immediately drawing on market information systems, regional agricultural development agencies, trader networks and other crop collection/marketing agencies and organizations for projections of food availability. All these measures need to be implemented before the end of December, after which time there are generally fewer farmers doing business on local markets.


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Figure 3f: Trends in millet prices on the Dawanu market (in Nigeria) at harvest time in 2006, 2005 and 2004

Figure 3e: Trends in millet prices in N’Djamena (Chad) at harvest time in 2006 and over the last five years

Source: SIM (Market Information System) Chad; Graphic by FEWS NET Sahel

Source: SIMA (Agricultural Market Information System) Niger; Graphic by FEWS NET Sahel

As far as livestock are concerned, the condition of animals is greatly improved due to the availability of natural pasture and watering holes. Terms of trade for grain/livestock are working to the advantage of herders in many regional countries. In contrast to trends in grain prices, prices for livestock are expected to shoot up over the next few months with the upcoming celebration of Tabaski (the Muslim Feast of Sacrifice) and the Christmas holidays, which are periods of heavy demand for livestock. This will further strengthen terms of trade for grain/livestock from the standpoint of herders, who will take advantage of the situation to build up their food reserves. However, this year’s supply of animals could be smaller and more erratic after the holiday season, which could cause consumer meat prices to rise. In conclusion, on the whole, the region-wide food and grain situation as of the end of 2006 and looking ahead to 2007 should be comparable if not better than last year. However, the nutritional status of area residents could be impacted by expected high prices for animal products over the next few months, which may not come down by a large enough margin to facilitate access to these products by the poor. Ongoing monitoring activities and preventive efforts in this respect should be aimed at backstopping market gardening activities, promoting the consumption of these crops, and ensuring the distribution of supplementary food rations to high-risk groups such as women and children.

For further information on the content of this bulletin, please contact any of the following: Salif SOW Alkhalil ADOUM Laouali IBRAHIM Amadou Mactar KONATE Moussa CISSE

FEWS NET Sahel PRA/SA/LCD ; CILSS PRA/Marchés ; CILSS FEWS NET/Sahel & West Africa

USGS /AGRHYMET Tel. (00226) 50 37 47 06 Tel. (00226) 50 37 41 25/28 Tel. (00226) 50 37 41 25/28

Ext. 404 Tel. (00227) 20 31 50 16

Ext. 412 Ext. 411 Tel. (226) 50374706 Niamey, Niger Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso E-mail : [email protected]

E-mail : [email protected] E-mail : [email protected] E-mail : [email protected] E-mail : [email protected] Skype : fn-librahim

mailto:[email protected]

monthly food security update for the sahel and west africa ... · october 2006 record agropastoral...

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