monthly economic letter...stocks 44.6 62.5 62.4 production 94.9 86.4 85.4 imports from china 0.2 0.1...

Recent Price Data

cents/lb

Latest Value

(Jan 12)

Latest Month (Dec)

Last 12 Months

(Jan20-Dec21) NY Nearby 81.7 74.8 64.2 A Index 86.9 81.0 71.9 CC Index 107.5 102.8 85.3 Indian Spot 75.4 72.2 65.1 Pakistani Spot 80.6 73.8 67.2 Additional price data available here. Price definitions available here.

World Balance Sheet million 480 lb. bales 2020/21 2019/20 Dec Jan Beg. Stocks 80.3 99.4 99.3 Production 122.1 113.9 112.9 Mill-Use 102.6 115.6 115.7 Ending Stocks 99.3 97.5 96.3 Stocks/Use 96.8% 84.3% 83.2%

China Balance Sheet million 480 lb. bales 2020/21 2019/20 Dec Jan Beg. Stocks 35.7 36.9 36.9 Production 27.2 27.5 27.5 Imports 7.1 10.0 10.5 Mill-Use 33.0 38.0 38.5 Exports 0.2 0.1 0.1 Ending Stocks 36.9 36.3 36.3 Stocks/Use 111.3% 95.1% 93.9%

World-Less-China Balance Sheet million 480 lb. bales 2020/21 2019/20 Dec Jan Beg. Stocks 44.6 62.5 62.4 Production 94.9 86.4 85.4 Imports from China 0.2 0.1 0.1 Mill-Use 69.6 77.6 77.2 Exports to China 7.1 10.0 10.5 Ending Stocks 62.4 61.2 60.0 Stocks/Use 81.3% 69.9% 68.4% Additional balance sheet data available here.

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

CC Index (cents/lb)

A Index

NY Nearby

NY Futures, A Index, and CC Index Increase

JANUARY 2021

Monthly Economic Letter Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

Global cotton prices continued to rise over the past month.

The NY March futures contract climbed from 74 cents/lb to 82 cents/lb. The December futures contract, reflective of price expectations after the 2021/22 harvest, rose from 72 to 77 cents/lb.

Cotlook’s A Index rose from 80 to 86 cents/lb.

In international terms, the China Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) increased from 102 to 108 cents/lb. In domestic terms, values climbed from 14,700 to 15,300 RMB/ton. The RMB strengthened against the USD, from 6.55 to 6.47 RMB/USD.

Indian cotton prices (Shankar-6 quality) increased from 71 to 75 cents/lb. In domestic terms, values increased from 40,700 to 43,200 INR/candy. The Indian rupee was steady against the USD near 73 INR/USD.

In international terms, Pakistani prices rose from 72 to 80 cents/lb. In domestic terms, prices increased from 9,500 to 10,500 PKR/maund. The Pakistani rupee was steady against the USD near 160 PKR/USD.

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE

The latest USDA report featured a decrease to global production (-1.0 million bales to 112.9 million) and a slight increase to global mill-use (+100,000 bales to 115.7 million). A series of minor revisions to 2019/20 estimates resulted in a small decrease to 2020/21 beginning stocks (-143,000 bales to 99.3 million). A net effect was a 1.2 million bale reduction to the forecast for 2020/21 ending stocks (to 96.3 million).

At the country-level, there was a broad range of changes to production numbers. The largest update was for the U.S., where the harvest estimate was lowered 1.0 million bales. This was the second consecutive substantial decrease to the projection for U.S. output (there was a 1.2 million reduction last month). The current forecast of 15.0 million bales suggests a 5.0 million bale year-over-year decrease for the U.S. crop.

Other notable revisions for production were made to Greece (+150,000 bales to 1.4 million), Australia (+100,000 bales to 2.5 million), Turkey (+100,000 bales to 2.9 million), Mali (-115,000 bales to 0.3 million), and Pakistan (-200,000 bales to 4.3 million). The current forecast for Pakistan is about half the volume harvested on average in recent years (production was lower last crop year too, average from 2014/15 to 2018/19 was 8.2 million bales).

For mill-use, the largest changes were for China (+500,000 bales to 38.5 million), Turkey (+200,000 bales to 7.2 million), the U.S. (-100,000 bales to 2.4 million), Vietnam (-100,000 bales to 6.7 million), and Indonesia (-200,000 bales to 2.7 million).

The global trade forecast was increased 380,000 bales to 43.6 million. In terms of imports, the largest changes were for China (+500,000 bales to 10.5 million), Pakistan (+200,000 bales to 4.9 million), Mexico (+100,000 bales to 0.8 million), Turkey (+100,000 bales to 4.5 million), Vietnam (-100,000 bales to 6.7 million), and Indonesia (-200,000 bales to 2.6 million). In terms of exports, the largest changes were for the U.S. (+250,000 bales to 15.3 million), Australia (+100,000 bales to 1.5

https://www.cottoninc.com/market-data/monthly-economic-newsletter/cotton-price-definitions/

MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JANUARY 2021

Please forward comments and questions to [email protected] To subscribe to the Monthly Economic Letter click here and follow the instructions in the Email Subscriptions box on the left side of the page. Sources: Price data from Reuters, Cotlook, Cotton Assn. of India, and Karachi Cotton Assn. Supply, demand, and trade data from the USDA. Disclaimer: The information contained herein is derived from public and private subscriber news sources believed to be reliable; however, Cotton Incorporated cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.No responsibility is assumed for the use of this information and no express or implied warranties or guarantees are made. The information contained herein should not be relied upon for the purpose ofmaking investment decisions. This communication is not intended to forecast or predict future prices or events.

© 2021 Cotton Incorporated. All rights reserved; America's Cotton Producers and Importers

World Cotton Production million 480 lb. bales 2020/21 2019/20 Dec Jan India 29.5 29.5 29.5 China 27.3 27.5 27.5 United States 19.9 15.9 15.0 Brazil 13.8 12.0 12.0 Pakistan 6.2 4.5 4.3 Rest of World 25.5 24.5 24.6 World 122.1 113.9 112.9

World Cotton Mill-Use million 480 lb. bales 2020/21 2019/20 Dec Jan China 33.0 38.0 38.5 India 20.0 24.0 24.0 Pakistan 9.2 10.0 10.0 Bangladesh 6.9 7.3 7.3 Turkey 6.6 7.0 7.2 Rest of World 26.9 29.3 28.7 World 102.6 115.6 115.7

World Cotton Exports million 480 lb. bales 2020/21 2019/20 Dec Jan United States 15.5 15.0 15.3 Brazil 8.9 10.0 10.0 India 3.2 5.0 5.0 Australia 1.4 1.4 1.5 Benin 1.2 1.4 1.4 Rest of World 11.0 10.5 10.5 World 41.2 43.2 43.6

World Cotton Imports million 480 lb. bales 2020/21 2019/20 Dec Jan China 7.1 10.0 10.5 Bangladesh 7.5 6.9 6.9 Vietnam 6.5 6.8 6.7 Pakistan 4.0 4.7 4.9 Turkey 4.7 4.4 4.5 Rest of World 10.9 10.4 10.0 World 40.7 43.2 43.5

World Cotton Ending Stocks million 480 lb. bales 2020/21 2019/20 Dec Jan China 36.9 36.3 36.3 Brazil 14.4 13.4 13.4 India 17.9 19.4 19.4 United States 7.3 5.7 4.6 Pakistan 3.4 2.5 2.5 Rest of World 19.4 20.2 20.1 World 99.3 97.5 96.3 Additional supply and demand data available here.

million), Mexico (+100,000 bales to 0.3 million), and Mali (-150,000 bales to 0.6 million).

PRICE OUTLOOK

Recent USDA revisions may have reduced the divergence between prices and ending stock estimates somewhat, but a wedge remains.

Since August, USDA forecasts for 2020/21 global ending stocks have fallen from 104.9 million bales to 96.3 million. Nonetheless, the latest USDA report predicts the fourth-highest volume of ending stocks on record. The current consumption forecast calls for a level of use about five million bales lower than before the pandemic (120.2 million bales in 2018/19, 115.7 million bales in 2020/21).

High stocks and lower use imply elevated values for the stocks-to-use ratio, and the current figure (83.2%) ranks among the fourth highest in recent decades. In the mid-2000s, global stocks-to-use ratios near 50% were considered elevated. Between 2004/05 and 2006/07, when world stocks-to-use averaged 53.2%, the NY Nearby averaged 51.2 cents/lb (68.9 cents/lb adjusted to current USD assuming 2% inflation per year). The current value for the NY Nearby is 82 cents/lb, and the current stock-to-use ratio is 83.2%.

There have been important shifts in the market over that time, such as the increase in production in Brazil. Ending stocks are defined as the volume available at the end of July. Due to the timing of the Brazilian harvest (southern hemisphere), nearly all Brazilian production is counted as ending stocks. Following the 2010/11 price spike, the USDA made a series of upward revisions to estimates for Indian stocks. The preservation of those adjustments has led to questions of over-estimation of Indian stocks for several years.

After compensating for the six million bale increase in Brazilian production over the past 15 years and allowing that Indian stocks could be lowered by a similar magnitude, global stock estimates would result in a stocks-to-use ratio of 72.8% (current ending stock estimate of 96.3 – 12.0 = 84.3 million bales, 84.3 / 115.7 million bales of mill-use = 72.8%). Between 2016/17 and 2018/19, global stocks-to-use was below 70.0% (between 66.0% and 69.1% in those three crop years). During this time, crop year averages for NY Nearby ranged from 72.9 to 74.4 cents/lb.

Lower stocks-to-use and lower prices in these recent years underline how prices may have increased beyond levels explainable by current supply and demand estimates. It is possible that further revisions to supply and demand estimates are necessary. It is also possible that prices may be susceptible to downward correction.

Regardless, recent increases in cotton prices can be expected to influence planting decisions for the upcoming 2021/22 crop year. A recent survey of U.S. growers conducted by a trade publication suggested that U.S. acreage could decrease about 5% next crop year. Ratios of futures prices suggest plantings will be nearly flat. At their annual meeting (Feb 12-14), the National Cotton Council will release results from their survey of U.S. growers’ planting intentions. At their outlook forum (Feb 18-19), the USDA will release preliminary estimates for global supply and demand in 2021/22.

https://www.cottoninc.com/market-data/monthly-economic-newsletter/

Daily

Monthly

Tables

Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms (cents/lb) due to changes in exchange rates.

A Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices

Balance Sheets (bales) Balance Sheets (tons) Supply & Demand (bales) Supply & Demand (tons)

List of Charts and TablesA Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices

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11,500

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14,000

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NY Nearby

One Year of Daily A Index and NY Nearby Pricescents/lb

One Year of Daily CC Index (Grade 328) Prices

local terms (RMB/ton)cents/lb


Note: Movement in prices in cents/lb and local terms will not be identical due to changes in exchange rates.


return to list of charts and tables

7,000

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cents/lb INR/candy

One Year of Daily Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety)

cents/lb

One Year of Daily Pakistani Spot Prices

cents/lb

local terms (INR/candy, candy=355.62 kg)

local terms (PKR/maund, maund = 37.32 kg)




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10,000

11,500

13,000

14,500

16,000

17,500

19,000

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Three Years of Monthly A Index and NY Nearby Pricescents/lb

Three Years of Monthly CC Index (Grade 328) Priceslocal terms (RMB/ton)cents/lb




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Three Years of Monthly Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety)cents/lb local terms (INR/candy, candy=355.62 kg)

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Three Years of Monthly Pakistani Spot Pricescents/lb local terms (PKR/maund, maund = 37.32 kg)


World Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January

Beginning Stocks 90.3 80.3 81.1 80.3 99.4 99.3

Production 106.7 124.0 118.6 122.1 113.9 112.9

Supply 197.0 204.3 199.7 202.4 213.3 212.1

Mill-Use 116.3 122.9 120.2 102.6 115.6 115.7

Ending Stocks 80.3 81.1 80.3 99.3 97.5 96.3

Stocks/Use Ratio 69.1% 66.0% 66.8% 96.8% 84.3% 83.2%

China Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January


Production 22.8 27.5 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.5

Imports 5.0 5.7 9.6 7.1 10.0 10.5

Supply 84.5 79.1 75.4 70.1 74.4 74.9

Mill-Use 38.5 41.0 39.5 33.0 38.0 38.5

Exports 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Demand 38.6 41.1 39.7 33.2 38.1 38.6

Ending Stocks 45.9 38.0 35.7 36.9 36.3 36.3

Stocks/Use Ratio 119.1% 92.4% 89.8% 111.3% 95.1% 93.9%

World-Less-China Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January


Production 83.9 96.5 90.8 94.9 86.4 85.4

Imports from China 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Supply 117.6 131.0 134.2 139.6 149.0 147.9

Mill-Use 77.8 81.9 80.7 69.6 77.6 77.2

Exports to China 5.0 5.7 9.6 7.1 10.0 10.5

Demand 82.8 87.6 90.3 76.7 87.6 87.7

Ending Stocks 34.4 43.1 44.6 62.4 61.2 60.0

Stocks/Use Ratio 41.5% 49.2% 49.4% 81.3% 69.9% 68.4%

Source: USDA



India Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January


Production 27.0 29.0 25.8 29.5 29.5 29.5

Imports 2.7 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.0

Supply 36.8 38.6 36.8 41.1 48.4 48.4

Mill-Use 24.4 24.2 24.0 20.0 24.0 24.0

Exports 4.6 5.2 3.5 3.2 5.0 5.0

Demand 28.9 29.3 27.5 23.2 29.0 29.0

Ending Stocks 7.9 9.2 9.3 17.9 19.4 19.4

Stocks/Use Ratio 27.3% 31.5% 33.8% 77.1% 66.8% 66.8%

U.S. Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January


Production 17.2 20.9 18.4 19.9 15.9 15.0

Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Supply 21.0 23.7 22.6 24.8 23.2 22.2

Mill-Use 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.2 2.5 2.4

Exports 14.9 16.3 14.8 15.5 15.0 15.3

Demand 18.2 19.5 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.7

Ending Stocks 2.8 4.2 4.9 7.3 5.7 4.6

Stocks/Use Ratio 15.1% 21.5% 27.2% 41.0% 32.6% 26.1%

Pakistan Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January


Production 7.7 8.2 7.6 6.2 4.5 4.3

Imports 2.5 3.4 2.9 4.0 4.7 4.9

Supply 12.8 13.9 13.3 12.7 12.6 12.6

Mill-Use 10.3 10.9 10.7 9.2 10.0 10.0

Exports 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Demand 10.4 11.1 10.8 9.3 10.1 10.1

Ending Stocks 2.3 2.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 2.5

Stocks/Use Ratio 22.2% 25.6% 23.2% 36.6% 25.0% 25.0%

Source: USDA



World Cotton Productionmillion 480 lb. bales 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January

India 27.0 29.0 25.8 29.5 29.5 29.5

China 22.8 27.5 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.5

United States 17.2 20.9 18.4 19.9 15.9 15.0

Brazil 7.0 9.2 13.0 13.8 12.0 12.0

Pakistan 7.7 8.2 7.6 6.2 4.5 4.3

Uzbekistan 3.7 3.9 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5

Turkey 3.2 4.0 3.8 3.5 2.8 2.9

Australia 4.1 4.8 2.2 0.6 2.4 2.5

Greece 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.4

Benin 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

Mexico 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.1

Cote d'Ivoire 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0

Turkmenistan 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0

Rest of World 9.4 10.4 10.4 11.3 10.1 9.9

African Franc Zone 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.6 4.5 4.5

EU-27 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.7

World 106.7 124.0 118.6 122.1 113.9 112.9

World Cotton Exportsmillion 480 lb. bales 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January

United States 14.9 16.3 14.8 15.5 15.0 15.3

Brazil 2.8 4.2 6.0 8.9 10.0 10.0

India 4.6 5.2 3.5 3.2 5.0 5.0

Australia 3.7 3.9 3.6 1.4 1.4 1.5

Benin 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4

Greece 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4

Cote d'Ivoire 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.0

Burkina 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8

Mali 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6

Cameroon 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6

Argentina 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6

Sudan 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5

Turkey 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5

Rest of World 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.7


EU-27 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6

World 38.1 41.7 41.6 41.2 43.2 43.6

Source: USDA



World Cotton Mill-Usemillion 480 lb. bales 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January

China 38.5 41.0 39.5 33.0 38.0 38.5

India 24.4 24.2 24.0 20.0 24.0 24.0

Pakistan 10.3 10.9 10.7 9.2 10.0 10.0

Bangladesh 6.8 7.5 7.2 6.9 7.3 7.3

Turkey 6.7 7.6 6.9 6.6 7.0 7.2

Vietnam 5.4 6.6 7.0 6.3 6.8 6.7

Uzbekistan 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.2

Brazil 3.2 3.4 3.4 2.7 3.0 3.0

Indonesia 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.4 2.9 2.7

United States 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.2 2.5 2.4

Mexico 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.6

Turkmenistan 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8

Thailand 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7

Rest of World 8.9 8.8 8.7 7.4 7.9 7.7


EU-27 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7

World 116.3 122.9 120.2 102.6 115.6 115.7

World Cotton Importsmillion 480 lb. bales 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January

China 5.0 5.7 9.6 7.1 10.0 10.5

Bangladesh 6.8 7.6 7.0 7.5 6.9 6.9

Vietnam 5.5 7.0 6.9 6.5 6.8 6.7

Pakistan 2.5 3.4 2.9 4.0 4.7 4.9

Turkey 3.9 4.4 3.6 4.7 4.4 4.5

Indonesia 3.4 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.6

India 2.7 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.0

Malaysia 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9

Mexico 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8

Thailand 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7

Egypt 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6

South Korea 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6

Taiwan 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4

Rest of World 3.3 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.7


EU-27 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

World Total 37.9 41.6 42.4 40.7 43.2 43.5

Source: USDA



World Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January


Production 23.2 27.0 25.8 26.6 24.8 24.6

Supply 42.9 44.5 43.5 44.1 46.4 46.2

Mill-Use 25.3 26.8 26.2 22.3 25.2 25.2

Ending Stocks 17.5 17.7 17.5 21.6 21.2 21.0

Stocks/Use Ratio 69.1% 66.0% 66.8% 96.8% 84.3% 83.2%

China Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January


Production 5.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0

Imports 1.1 1.2 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.3

Supply 18.4 17.2 16.4 15.3 16.2 16.3

Mill-Use 8.4 8.9 8.6 7.2 8.3 8.4

Exports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Demand 8.4 9.0 8.6 7.2 8.3 8.4

Ending Stocks 10.0 8.3 7.8 8.0 7.9 7.9

Stocks/Use Ratio 119.1% 92.4% 89.8% 111.3% 95.1% 93.9%

World-Less-China Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January


Production 18.3 21.0 19.8 20.7 18.8 18.6

Imports from China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Supply 25.6 28.5 29.2 30.4 32.5 32.2

Mill-Use 16.9 17.8 17.6 15.2 16.9 16.8

Exports to China 1.1 1.2 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.3

Demand 18.0 19.1 19.7 16.7 19.1 19.1

Ending Stocks 7.5 9.4 9.7 13.6 13.3 13.1

Stocks/Use Ratio 41.5% 49.2% 49.4% 81.3% 69.9% 68.4%

Source: USDA



India Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January


Production 5.9 6.3 5.6 6.4 6.4 6.4

Imports 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2

Supply 8.0 8.4 8.0 8.9 10.5 10.5

Mill-Use 5.3 5.3 5.2 4.4 5.2 5.2

Exports 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1

Demand 6.3 6.4 6.0 5.1 6.3 6.3

Ending Stocks 1.7 2.0 2.0 3.9 4.2 4.2

Stocks/Use Ratio 27.3% 31.5% 33.8% 77.1% 66.8% 66.8%

U.S. Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January


Production 3.7 4.6 4.0 4.3 3.5 3.3

Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Supply 4.6 5.2 4.9 5.4 5.1 4.8

Mill-Use 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

Exports 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3

Demand 4.0 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8

Ending Stocks 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.0

Stocks/Use Ratio 15.1% 21.5% 27.2% 41.0% 32.6% 26.1%

Pakistan Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January


Production 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.9

Imports 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1

Supply 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7

Mill-Use 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.2

Exports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Demand 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.2

Ending Stocks 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5

Stocks/Use Ratio 22.2% 25.6% 23.2% 36.6% 25.0% 25.0%

Source: USDA



World Cotton Productionmillion metric tons 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January

India 5.9 6.3 5.6 6.4 6.4 6.4

China 5.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0

United States 3.7 4.6 4.0 4.3 3.5 3.3

Brazil 1.5 2.0 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.6

Pakistan 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.9

Uzbekistan 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

Turkey 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6

Australia 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.5

Greece 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3

Benin 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Mexico 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2

Cote d'Ivoire 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Turkmenistan 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Rest of World 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.2


EU-27 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

World 23.2 27.0 25.8 26.6 24.8 24.6

World Cotton Exportsmillion metric tons 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January

United States 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3

Brazil 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.2 2.2

India 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1

Australia 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3

Benin 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Greece 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Cote d'Ivoire 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2

Burkina 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Mali 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Cameroon 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Argentina 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Sudan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Turkey 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

Rest of World 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0


EU-27 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

World 8.3 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.4 9.5

Source: USDA



World Cotton Consumptionmillion metric tons 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January

China 8.4 8.9 8.6 7.2 8.3 8.4

India 5.3 5.3 5.2 4.4 5.2 5.2

Pakistan 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.2

Bangladesh 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6

Turkey 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6

Vietnam 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5

Uzbekistan 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

Brazil 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7

Indonesia 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6

United States 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

Mexico 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Turkmenistan 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Thailand 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Rest of World 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7


EU-27 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

World Total 25.3 26.8 26.2 22.3 25.2 25.2

World Cotton Importsmillion metric tons 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21

December January

China 1.1 1.2 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.3

Bangladesh 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5

Vietnam 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5

Pakistan 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1

Turkey 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0

Indonesia 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6

India 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2

Malaysia 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Mexico 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2

Thailand 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Egypt 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

South Korea 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

Taiwan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Rest of World 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6


EU-27 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

World Total 8.2 9.0 9.2 8.9 9.4 9.5

Source: USDA


monthly economic letter...stocks 44.6 62.5 62.4 production 94.9 86.4 85.4 imports from china 0.2 0.1...

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