montana’s health care workforce projections amy watson economist mt dept. of labor and industry...
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Montana’s Health Care Workforce Projections
Amy WatsonEconomist
MT Dept. of Labor and Industry
Presented to the Montana Healthcare Workforce Advisory Committee May 4th, 2015
About MT DLI Employment Projections
• Two-Year Projections 2014 to 2016• Ten-Year Projections 2014 to 2024• Projections by Industry, Occupation and Region• Projection of Employment Demand• Data Sources:– Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages– Occupational Employment Statistics
Montana Recession (2007 to 2010) and Recovery (2010-2013) by Industry
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, MT DLI.
Construction
Trade and Transportation
Manufacturing
Leisure Activities
Business Services
Financial Activities
Mining and Utilities
Other
Agriculture
Health and Education
-10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
Number of Jobs
Recession LossRecovery GainLast Year
Government
Steady Employment Growth in Health Care Industry, 1990-2024
2.8%
1.9%
1.8%
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry 2024 Employment Projections .
Regional Distribution of Health Care Annual Employment Growth, 2014-2024
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry 2024 Employment Projections .
Employment Growth in Health Care Industry by Region, 1990-2024
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry 2024 Employment Projections .
Top 15 Health Care Jobs with the Most Annual Openings, 2014 – 2024
Occupation
Minimum Requirement Annual Openings2014 MT Average Annual WageEducation
Work Experience
Openings Due to New Jobs
Openings Due to Workers Leaving
Total Annual Openings
1 Registered Nurses Associate’s 199 177 376 $61,8142 Nursing Assistants PS Award 107 111 218 $24,8903 LPNs and LVNs PS Award 50 69 119 $38,7624 Home Health Aides < HS ST-OJT 59 34 93 $22,3685 Medical Records and HIT PS Award 24 34 57 $34,7276 Physical Therapists Prof 27 25 52 $69,5877 Pharmacists Prof 16 27 43 $106,6678 Dental Assistants PS Award 13 25 37 $33,2029 Physicians and Surgeons, All Other Prof Int/Res 13 22 35 $228,88210 EMTs and Paramedics PS Award 13 21 34 $29,59111 Dental Hygienists Associate’s 14 19 33 $68,59112 Medical Assistants PS Award 15 16 31 $31,26313 Pharmacy Technicians HS or GED MT-OJT 17 11 28 $33,40814 Radiologic Technicians Associate’s 15 12 26 $53,37715 Medical and Clinical Lab Techs Associate’s 12 13 26 $38,356<HS =Less than high school diploma, HS or GED = high school diploma or GED, PS= postsecondary non-degree award, Prof= Doctoral or Professional degree, ST-OJT=Short-term on the job training, MT-OJT=Medium-tem OJT, Int/Res = Internship or Residency
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry 2024 Employment Projections .
Health Care Occupations by AHEC Region
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations
AHEC Region EmploymentMean Annual Wage
Entry-Level Wage
1 Western Montana AHEC Region 9,115 $70,132 $33,262 2 South Central Montana AHEC Region 7,471 $70,034 $32,767 3 North Central Montana AHEC Region 3,896 $64,912 $34,320 4 Eastern Montana AHEC Region 7,158 $75,184 $35,362 5 North Eastern Montana AHEC Region 1,613 $63,851 $32,421
Healthcare Support Occupations
AHEC Region EmploymentMean Annual Wage
Entry-Level Wage
1 Western Montana AHEC Region 2,997 $27,318 $ 20,748 2 South Central Montana AHEC Region 3,443 $26,484 $20,244 3 North Central Montana AHEC Region 1,502 $26,628 $20,725 4 Eastern Montana AHEC Region 2,245 $28,999 $21,510 5 North Eastern Montana AHEC Region 990 $27,148 $ 21,653
Source: Occupational Employment Statistics May 2014, Bureau of Labor Statistics and MT Dept. of Labor and Industry
Top 15 Non-Health Care Jobs within the Health Care Industry, 2014 – 2024
Occupation
Minimum Requirement Annual Openings across all Industries
2014 MT Average Annual WageEducation
Work Experience
Openings Due to New Jobs
Openings Due to Workers Leaving
Total Annual Openings
1 Personal Care Aides < HS ST-OJT 156 46 201 $21,7752 Medical Secretaries HS or GED MT-OJT 58 27 84 $30,9543 Social & Human Service Assistants HS or GED ST-OJT 28 41 69 $26,2724 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners < HS ST-OJT 90 132 222 $20,9085 Childcare Workers HS or GED ST-OJT 40 99 139 $20,7586 Cooks, Institution & Cafeteria < HS ST-OJT 24 41 64 $25,2157 Receptionists & Information Clerks HS or GED ST-OJT 23 80 103 $26,3398 Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks HS or GED MT-OJT 170 109 280 $33,0519 Billing and Posting Clerks HS or GED ST-OJT 29 32 61 $32,57410 Medical & Health Services Managers Bachelor's 18 23 42 $81,14311 Secretaries and Admin Assistants HS or GED ST-OJT 150 129 278 $29,93112 Food Servers, Non restaurant < HS ST-OJT 18 29 47 $19,47313 Mental Health Counselors Master's Int/Res 14 19 33 $31,31914 Substance Abuse & Behavioral Disorder Counselors HS or GED MT-OJT 14 12 26 $40,30815 Child, Family, & School Social Workers Bachelor's 18 24 42 $34,917<HS =Less than high school diploma, HS or GED = high school diploma or GED, PS= postsecondary non-degree award, Prof= Doctoral or Professional degree, ST-OJT=Short-term on the job training, MT-OJT=Medium-tem OJT, Int/Res = Internship or Residency
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry 2024 Employment Projections .
Health Professionals and Related Programs Graduates from 2011 to 2013
Health Professionals and Related Programs• Total Graduates: 3,438
• Gender Distribution– 17.7% Male– 82.3% Female
• Mean Age: 32
• One Year Post Graduation– Mean Wage $35,486– 75% Employed in Montana– 1.3 Average Quarters Employed
All Fields of Study
• Total Graduates: 9,532
• Gender Distribution– 45.2% Male– 54.8% Female
• Mean Age: 28
• One Year Post Graduation– Mean Wage $24,267– 68% Employed in Montana– 2.6 Average Quarters Employed
Source: Montana University System Micro Data from the Office of Commissioner of Higher Education. Does not include FVCC or tribal colleges.
Health Professions and Related Programs Graduates from 2011 to 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2%5%
43%
24%
16%
10%
<1%
Num
ber o
f Hea
lthc
are
Gra
duat
es
PhD and OtherMasters Degree
First Professional Degree
Baccalaureate Degree
Associate Degree
Certificate of Applied Science
Certificate of Technical Studies
Univer-sity of
Montana
Missoul
a21%
Montana
State
Univeristy Bozeman
19%
Great Falls College MSU13%
Missoul
a Col-lege UM11%
City Col-lege
at MSUB9%
MT Tec
h7%
Montana
State
University North-ern7%
Montana
State
University Billings5%
Other4%
Helena College UM3%
Source: Montana University System Micro Data from the Office of Commissioner of Higher Education. Does not include FVCC or tribal colleges.
Nursing Occupational Projections
Nursing Occupation Projections, 2014-2024
Occupation
Minimum Requirements Before Entering
Profession Employment LevelsAnnual Openings
2014 MT Average Annual WageEducation Work
ExperienceBase
Employment 2014
Projected Employment
2024
Openings Due to
New Jobs
Openings Due to
Workers Leaving
Total Annual
Openings
Nurse Practitioners Master's None 385 484 10 8 18 $92,797Registered Nurses Associate's None 9,126 11,118 199 177 376 $61,814Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses PS Award None 2,825 3,325 50 69 119 $38,762
Nursing Assistants PS Award None 5,821 6,888 107 111 218 $24,890Abbreviations: PS Award=Postsecondary Award; Master's= Masters Degree; Associate's=Associates Degree Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry Employment Projections, 2014 wages from Occupational Employment Statistics
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry 2024 Employment Projections .
Nursing Employment and Wages by AHEC Region
Registered Nurses Employment and Wages by AHEC Region
AHEC Region EmploymentMean Annual Wage
Entry-Level Wage
1 Western Montana AHEC Region 2,791 $63,501 $51,9432 South Central Montana AHEC Region 2,333 $60,413 $48,1393 North Central Montana AHEC Region 1,371 $59,212 $49,8604 Eastern Montana AHEC Region 2,337 $63,754 $51,8605 North Eastern Montana AHEC Region 626 $58,181 $47,228Source: Occupational Employment Statistics May 2015
Source: Occupational Employment Statistics May 2014, Bureau of Labor Statistics and MT Dept. of Labor and Industry
Registered Nursing Graduates by School and Degree from 2011 to 2013
2011 2012 20130
100
200
300
400
500
600
39%48% 47%
55%
45%48%6%
6%
5%
Num
ber o
f Gra
duat
es
Associates DegreeBachelors DegreeMasters Degree
Montana State Univeristy Bozeman48%
Montana State University Northern20%
MT Tech9%
City College at MSUB9%
Missoula College UM7%
Miles CC5%
Helena College UM1%
Source: Montana University System Micro Data from the Office of Commissioner of Higher Education. Does not include FVCC or tribal colleges.
Primary Care Physician Projections
Primary Care Physicians Projections, 2014-2024
Occupation
Minimum Requirements Before Entering
Profession Employment LevelsAnnual Openings
2014 MT Average Annual WageEducation Work
ExperienceBase
Employment 2014
Projected Employment
2024
Openings Due to
New Jobs
Openings Due to
Workers Leaving
Total Annual
Openings
Family and General Practitioners PhD or Prof Int/Res 412 439 3 10 13 $191,730
Internists PhD or Prof Int/Res ND ND ND ND ND $220,880Obstetricians and Gynecologists PhD or Prof Int/Res 79 84 1 2 3 $241,100
Pediatricians PhD or Prof Int/Res 130 141 1 3 4 $236,690Abbreviations: ND= Not Disclosable, Prof= Doctoral or Professional degree, Int/Res = Internship or Residency Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry Employment Projections, 2014 wages from Occupational Employment Statistics
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry 2024 Employment Projections .
