montana manufacturing forest products: 2014 outlook · 41.7 -13% retail trade 28.3 35.0 22% ......
TRANSCRIPT
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Montana Manufacturing
& Forest Products:
2014 Outlook
Todd A. Morgan, CF
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Food, bev. & tobacco
Fabricated metals
Computers &
electronics Machinery Chemicals
Wood & paper
products
Motor vehicles
Rubber & plastic
Furniture
Electrical equip. &
appliances
Apparel
Petroleum & coal
products
U.S. Manufacturing 2013 estimated over 12.6 million workers.
Annual worker earnings are rising.
Value of output per worker is increasing faster than many other sectors.
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Montana & U.S. Manufacturing Employment 1990-2012
9,000,000
12,000,000
15,000,000
18,000,000
21,000,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
28,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Montana U.S.
MT workers US workers
Source: BEA-REIS SA-25N
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Montana Manufacturing Better than the average sector!
Sector of Montana economy
earnings per employee ($1,000)
GSP per employee ($1,000)
GSP per employee
growth
All sectors
40.8
52.9 11%
Manufacturing
49.3
99.3 51%
Mining
97.8
96.6 -54%
Construction
45.8
41.7 -13%
Retail trade
28.3
35.0 22%
Professional, scientific, and technical services
48.0
51.6 26%
Health care and social assistance
48.2
44.2 9%
Accommodation and food services
20.0
24.0 14%
Government
56.4
53.8 3%
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Montana Manufacturing 2013 Labor Income by Sector
Sales:
~$14 billion
Employment: ~22,150
Labor Income: ~$1.12 billion
Wood & Furniture
16% Metals 13%
Food & Beverage
14%
Chemicals, Petroleum &
Coal 21%
Other 18%
Nonmetallic Minerals
8%
Machinery 7%
Computers, Electronics & Appliances
3%
Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
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Lewis & Clark County Manufacturing 2011 Labor Income
Other Durable Goods
39%
Other Non-durable Goods
37%
Food & Beverage
12%
Fabricated Metals
2%
Wood & Furniture
7%
Petroleum & Coal Prods.
3%
Labor Income: $38.5 million - 2011 $42.4 million - 2012
Employment:
~900
Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
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Cascade County Manufacturing 2011 Labor Income
Furniture 5%
Food & Beverage
47%
Other Durable Goods
12%
Printing & Related
7%
Other Non-durable Goods
29%
Labor Income: $61.6 million – 2011 $66.2 million - 2012
Employment:
~1,050
Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
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Missoula County Manufacturing 2011 Labor Income
Wood & Furniture
24% Food & Beverage
19%
Other Durable Goods 37%
Chemical 12%
Other Non-durable Goods
8%
Labor Income: $93.9 million – 2011 $94.4 million - 2012
Employment:
~2,150
Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
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Yellowstone County Manufacturing 2011 Labor Income
Labor Income: $269 million – 2011 $288 million - 2012
Employment:
~3,450
Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
Other Non-durable goods
3% Metals
8%
Food & Beverage
10%
Petroleum & Coal 61% Chemicals
4%
Other Durable Goods
14%
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Gallatin County Manufacturing 2011 Labor Income
Labor Income: $123 million – 2011 $124 million - 2012
Employment
~2,700
Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
Non-metallic minerals
9%
Wood & Furniture
7%
Metals 11%
Computers & Electronics
10%
Other Durable Goods
33%
Food & Beverage
10%
Textiles 2%
Printing 3%
Plastics & Rubber
3% Other Non-
durable Goods
11%
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Butte-Silver Bow County Manufacturing
Labor Income: $46.5 million – 2011 $44.1 million - 2012
Employment:
~700
Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates
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Flathead County Manufacturing 2011 Labor Income
Labor Income: $154 million – 2011 $163 million - 2012
Employment:
~3,000
Wood & Furniture
44%
Computers & electronics
5% Fabricated
Metals 5%
Food 3% Other non-
durable goods 8%
Other durable goods 35%
Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau
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Fergus County Manufacturing
Labor Income: $12.8 million – 2011 $ 15.0 million – 2012
Employment:
~400
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Hill County Manufacturing
Labor Income: $3.4 million – 2011 $2.5 million – 2012
Employment:
~120
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Manufacturing Miscellany • MMEC & MSU report – assisting growth & overcoming barriers
• MT Manufacturing Council – subsidiary of MT Chamber of Commerce
• MT Photonics Industry Alliance formed
• MT Outdoor Industry Assoc. forming
• Made in MT Food & Gift Show March 2014
• Manufacturing & Trade Day May 2014
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2013-2014 Montana Manufacturers Survey
– annual survey – conducted in November – open-ended & multi-choice questions – current & coming year – 170 firms participated – response rate ~80%
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Montana Manufacturing 2013 Recap
• Better than 2012 for many firms
• Employment down at 20% of firms, up at 30%
• Many firms reported increased production, sales, and profits
• Few firms reported curtailments
• 50% of firms did make major capital expenditure in 2013
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Montana Manufacturers Outlook Trend
0.25
0.50
0.75
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Employment
Sales
Production
Overall
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Montana Manufacturing Employment Outlook
0.30
0.50
0.70
0.90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Wood, paper & furniture Food & beverage
Chemicals, petroleum & minerals Machinery
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Montana Manufacturing Outlook by Sector
0.10
0.30
0.50
0.70
0.90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Wood, paper & furniture Food & beverage
Chemicals, petroleum & minerals Machinery
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Percent of Firms
Montana Forest Products Overall Outlook
11%
76%
11%
32%
49%
15%
37%
57%
6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Better than last year Same as last year Worse than last year
Outlook for 2012 Outlook for 2013 Outlook for 2014
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Montana Forest Products Industry 2014 Forecast
• U.S. homebuilding to improve, will boost wood product demand.
• Markets are expected to be better but more volatile.
• Output & sales should increase.
• Employment & worker earnings should also increase.
• Timber availability could be the major constraint for Montana mills.
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Montana Manufacturing Outlooks by City/Region
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
2012 2013 2014
Helena
Great Falls
Missoula
Billings
Bozeman
Butte
Kalispell
State
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Helena Area Manufacturing Outlook
Percent of Firms
42%
25%
33%
50%
33%
17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Better than last year Same as last year Worse than last year
Outlook for 2013 Outlook for 2014
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Great Falls & Havre Area Manufacturing Outlook
Percent of Firms
41%
47%
12%
38%
46%
15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Better than last year Same as last year Worse than last year
Outlook for 2013 Outlook for 2014
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Missoula Area Manufacturing Outlook
Percent of Firms
50%
32%
12%
50%
39%
11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Better than last year Same as last year Worse than last year
Outlook for 2013 Outlook for 2014
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Billings Area Manufacturing Outlook
Percent of Firms
53%
32%
15%
42%
47%
11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Better than last year Same as last year Worse than last year
Outlook for 2013 Outlook for 2014
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Bozeman Area Manufacturing Outlook
Percent of Firms
30%
49%
21%
52%
39%
7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Better than last year Same as last year Worse than last year
Outlook for 2013 Outlook for 2014
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Butte Area Manufacturing Outlook
Percent of Firms
15%
69%
15%
27%
64%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Better than last year Same as last year Worse than last year
Outlook for 2013 Outlook for 2014
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Kalispell Area Manufacturing Outlook
Percent of Firms
42%
50%
4%
56%
44%
0% 0%
20%
40%
60%
Better than last year Same as last year Worse than last year
Outlook for 2013 Outlook for 2014
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Lewistown Area Manufacturing Outlook
Percent of Firms
47%
38%
15%
67%
33%
0% 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Better than last year Same as last year Worse than last year
Outlook for 2012 Outlook for 2014
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Montana Manufacturing Forecast for 2014
• Positive outlook statewide and across sectors.
• Continued improvements anticipated.
• Modest growth expected in statewide employment & worker earnings.
• Health insurance costs and work comp rates remain major concerns.