MONSOON EXPERIMENT IN SOUTH AMERICA (MESA)

An internationally coordinated, joint CLIVAR – GEWEX program aimed at providing:

1.a better understanding of the South American monsoon system and its variability,

2.a better understanding of the role of that system in the global water cycle

3. improved observational data sets, and

4.improved simulation and prediction of the monsoon and regional water resources.

Carolina Vera

Univ. of Buenos Aires

MESA SWG Chair

MESA ORGANIZATION BY 2004

VAMOS Project Office

SALLJEX Objectives

•Diurnal variations of the SALLJ

•Detailed description of the 3-dimensional structure of the SALLJ

•The relationship between MCCs and the SALLJ

•Description of the heat low over the Chaco and NW Argentina

SALLJ Science goalTo understand the role of the South American low-level jet in moisture and energy exchange between the tropics and extratropics and related aspects of regional hydrology, climate and climate variability

PLATIN 2004 Activities

The CLIVAR-GEWEX PLATIN SSG: La Plata Basin is a climate-hydrology system with components that are potentially predictable with useful skill from seasons in advance, and whose variability has important impacts on human activities.

PLATIN is intended to advance in the understanding of those components.

*GEF PROJECT

*LPB CSE

MESA NEW ORGANIZATION

MESA Scientific Working Group

VAMOS Project Office

…LPB

Implementation Steering Group

MESA Scientific Working Group

Carolina Vera, Univ of Buenos Aires, Argentina (Chair)

Tercio Ambrizzi,  Univ. de São Paulo, Brazil

E. Hugo Berbery, Univ of Maryland, USA

Leila Vespoli de Carvalho, Univ. de São Paulo, Brazil

Alice Grimm, Univ Federal de Paraná, Brazil

Vern Kousky, NCEP/NOAA, USA

Brant Liebmann, Climate Diagnostics Center, NOAA, USA

Julia Nogues-Paegle, Univ of Utah, USA

José Marengo, CPTEC, Brazil

Ricardo Matano, Oregon State Univ. USA

Carlos Nobre, CPTEC, Brazil

Celeste Saulo, Univ of Buenos Aires, Argentina

Anji Seth, IRI, USA

Rafael Terra, Univ de la República, Uruguay

Ed Zipser, Univ of Utah, USA

MESA IMPLEMENTATION

HYPOTHESIS:The SAMS provides a physical basis fordetermining the degree of predictability on short- and long timescales over the region.

MESA PRIORITY RESEARCH AREAS (PRA):

Better understanding andsimulation of:

• diurnal and mesoscale processes (PRA-I);

• intraseasonal variability (PRA-II)

• interannual and longer time variability (including ACC issues) (PRA-III);

• monsoon evolution and variability (PRAs-I, II, III).

MESA scientific issues discussed in VPM7 & Baltimore meeting

A better undestanding and improved simulation is expected on:

• Diurnal cycle and seasonal evolution of the SAMS• 3-dimensional description of the low-circulation east of the Andes.• Mesoscale convective processes • Role of aerosols from biomass burning in SAMS

• Dynamics of the SA see-saw pattern• ITCZ-SACZ interaction • Influence of MJO on SAMS• Relative roles of internal vs forced low-frequency variability

• Land surface forcing – Impacts of land use change• Role of remote and local SST – South Atlantic• Global response to SAMS forcing

• Sources and limits of predictability on SAMS region

Additional MESA modeling issues discussed in VPM7 & Baltimore meeting

Model simulation improvements are needed in Model simulation improvements are needed in reproducing:reproducing:– the seasonal cycle of SAMS– Diurnal Cycle of circulation and precipitation– Monsoon onset– Mean and variability of the SACZ.

Additional MESA modeling issues

– To what extent do model systematic errors affect seasonal predictability in the region?

– Why do models have deficiencies in reproducing the SACZ? Missing coupled A-O mechanisms in the AGCMs?

– Will seasonal predictability change as a function of land cover changes?

– Can soil moisture memory help for seasonal predictions for South America? Need to improve soil moisture obs.

– Dealing with the complexities of orography. Higher resolution models and/or dowscaling with regional models?

– Atlantic SST forcing: (i) understanding tropical versus extratropical contributions.

– How can intraseasonal variability in the SAMS can be improved in the models?Can instraseasonal oscillations be a source of short term climatic predictability?

– At the end, can we expect that model improvements and observational techniques will improve predictability in regions such the highly populated and economically important one in SE South America?

– - Better seasonal climate predictions, more accurate projections of climate change scenarios for the future?

MESA modeling activities defined in VPM7

2004:– Impact of improved soil moisture initializations on precipitation

simulation– Impact of improved initial conditions enhanced by SALLJEX data– Data Assimilation including SALLJEX data

2005:– Intraseasonal variability during SALLJEX period.– Seasonal mean representation of the SALLJEX period.– SALLJEX data assimilation in the CDAS analysis (and GDAS?)– …

2006:– …

1st MESA SWG MeetingWednesday 9th afternoon:

•Session 1: Review of the scientific basis for MESA

•Session 1a:PRA-1: Diurnal and Mesoscale Variability in the SAMS region

Thursday 10th, morning:

•Session 1b: PRA-2: Intraseasonal variability in the SAMS region

Thursday 10th, afternoon:

•Session 1c: PRA-3: Interannual and longer-time variability in the SAMS region.

Friday 11th, morning:

•Session 2:Additional MESA Modeling

•Session 3:MESA Applications. PLATIN

Friday 11th, afternoon:

•Session 4:Enhanced observation activities & Field campaigns in MESA

•MESA SWG Executive Session

1st MESA SWG Meeting

•Moderators and rapporteurs of the plenary sessions:

•Session 1a: PRA-1: Diurnal and Mesoscale Variability in the SAMS region

•Moderator: Ed Zipser, Rapporteur: Rafael Terra

•Session 1b: PRA-2: Intraseasonal variability in the SAMS region

•Moderator: Julia Nogues-Paegle, rapporteur: Leila Carvalho

•Session 1c: PRA-3: Interannual and longer-time variability (including ACC) in the SAMS region.

•Moderator: P. Silva Dias, Rapporteur: A. Grimm

•Session 2: Additional MESA modeling issues

•Moderator: I. Cavalcanti, Rapporteur: Anji Seth

•Session 4: Enhanced observation activities & Field campaigns in MESA

•Moderator: H. Berbery, Rapporteur: C. Vera

1st MESA SWG Meeting

•Plenary sessions:

•Brief summary of the session by the moderator

•Discussion of the main scientific questions to be addressed in each of the PRAs

•Discussion of the diagnostic, modeling, and field campaign activities needed to address them

VAMOS A TRABAJAR!

LET’S START TO WORK!