mongolian economic update 2015

7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015

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THE WORLD BANK GROUP IN MONGOLIA

2015 11


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I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Overall GDP

Non-mining

Mining

-40

-30

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-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

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Q3-13

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Final consumption Gross capital formation

Net exports GDP growth (%)


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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Jan-

Sep)

Mining production Coal

Crude Oil Copper concentrates

Gold

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120

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Crude oil

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Mining industrial production


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Agriculture Other servicesManufacturing ConstructionWholesale & retail trade Electricity, comm. & residualTransportation Non-mining GDP growth (%)

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20%

25%

30%

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

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Sep-15

Manufacturing Electricity

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20

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I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Exports Imports

Domestic demand Real GDP growth (%)


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Growth contribution of investment (%p): LHS

Y/Y growth of fixed investment(%): RHS

0%

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Government Budget DBM FDI Others


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Real average household income growth (y/y, %)

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Government Consumption (%p)

Private consumption (%p)

Final Consumption growth (y/y, %)

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-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2010.01

2010.02

2010.03

2010.04

2011.01

2011.02

2011.03

2011.04

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2012.02

2012.03

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2013.01

2013.02

2013.03

2013.04

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2014.02

2014.03

2014.04

2015.01

2015.02

Real HH Monetary Income (yoy, %): UB

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May-12

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May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Energy and fuelsMeat, milk and cheesebread, flour and cerealsOther foodCore inflation exc all food and energy

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Headline inflation Food inflation

Non-Food inflation


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2014

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( %, 3

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( %, 3 )

:

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Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Total MiningManufacturing Electricity

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

41061

41122

41183

41244

41306

41365

41426

41487

41548

41609

41671

41730

41791

41852

41913

41974

42036

42095

42156

42217

core inflation (y/y, %)

Import price inflation (y/y, %)

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taxes

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duties

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revenues

0

10

20

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60

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Wages Social

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DBM's

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26/72

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2011 2012 2013 2014

On-budget spending (% to GDP)

DBM commercial (% to GDP)

DBM non-commercial (% to GDP)

DBM share to public spending (%)

DBM-related external debt (% to GDP)


28/72

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29/72

, 2014 ( ): 2013 12 379

2. 3,461

: 2012 12 2,557

904

( ): 2014 4 23.8

Syndicated loans ( ): 2014 12 583

China Development Bank ( ): Aug 2014present 261

Vnesheconombank ( ): June 2015 36.5

3. 387

4. 5,376

: PWC Audit LLC, , 2015 6

(http://www.dbm.mn/----2015------/)
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30/72

.

, 2

2015 . 150 ,

M2 2014 40

. ,

M2 2014 3 . 1 21.4

9 4.9 .

, .

( ,

) 2015

. ( 20)

. (21)

20. ,

M2 .

21.

.

M2 , (%p): 2010-2015 M2 , (%p): 2010-2015

:, -

2 . 2012 566

2013 4.5

. 2013

12 3.5

- 18 .

2013 46 ,

14 . 2

. : (i) ; (ii)

. 1 900

2013 .

.

.

4.3 9 4.1

. (22) 2014 (quantitative easing

programs) . 900

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Non-bank private sector Govt & Public Sector

Net foreign assets Net domestic credit (y/y, %)

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan-09

Jun-09

Nov-09

Apr-10

Sep-10

Feb-11

Jul-11

Dec-11

May-12

Oct-12

Mar-13

Aug-13

Jan-14

Jun-14

Nov-14

Apr-15

Sep-15

Foreign currency deposits MNT deposits

Currency outside banks M2 growth (%, y/y)


31/72

2014 .

2014 2015

.

2014 700 9

376 . 2015

232 2016

.

9 2.4 1.7

. 1.6

. 350

, .

, ,

9 3

22 . (23)

22.

.

23.

( ) (

)

:, -

,

.

.

2012 . 2012 1.5

. 4

. . .

2015 .

(

)- . 2013-14 4

,

. 40

. 2

. 2012 12 1.5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

1

2

3

4

5

BoM claims on government

BoM claims on companies

BoM claims on non-bank FIsBoM claims on banks

% share of BoM credit to total domestic credit: RHS

-50%

0%

50%

100%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Credit to Corporate Sector

BoM deposit to banks

BoM holdings of mortgage loans

Housing mortgage credit to banks

Credit to PSP

Reserve money growth(y/y, %): RHS


32/72

.

.

, .

2013 (

).

2013 50 . (

24)

2015 . 2014

2015 .

: (i)

; (ii) ; (iii)

. 7 9

. ( 25)

24. 2013-14 .

25. , 2015 .

Composition of monetary base (in trillion MNT): 2009-2015 Reserve money y/y growth composition (%p): 2009-2015

Source:BoM, WB staff estimates

.

9 18

9 4.3 1- .

2013 2014 2014 60

. 1.5 2

1 2013

90

.

-4

-2

1

3

5

7

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Net cla ims on non-govt entities Net cl aims on govt

NFA Monetary base

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

BoM claims on non-g ovt sec tors N et c la im s on govt

NFA Reserve money y/y growth (%)


33/72

2012 2 2013

21 . ( 26)

.

2014

, .

2015

. (27)

26. .

27. 2014 .

( ): 2009-15 - (%): 2009-15

:, -

. 2013-14

,

. 2014

. , 3

. 33

.

.

5 .

.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan-09

Jun-09

Nov-09

Apr-10

Sep-10

Feb-11

Jul-11

Dec-11

May-12

Oct-12

Mar-13

Aug-13

Jan-14

Jun-14

Nov-14

Apr-15

Sep-15

trillionMNT

Bank loans to the private sector: LHS

BoM funding in % to total funding sources of banks: RHS

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-09

Jun-09

Nov-09

Apr-10

Sep-10

Feb-11

Jul-11

Dec-11

May-12

Oct-12

Mar-13

Aug-13

Jan-14

Jun-14

Nov-14

Apr-15

Sep-15

Securitized mortgages: LHS

Bank loans: LHS

BoM credit to banks: LHS

Loan growth (incl. securitized mortgages): RHS

(trillion

MNT)


34/72

28. .

29. .

, (%p) , (%p)

:, -

, 125

. ,

2012 100 2014 135

.

, ,

,

.

.

9

19.1 12 .

2014 . 2015

. 1

14-16 .

30. , .

31. .

,

(%)

( ):

2010-2015

:, -

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Deposits External borrowing Government deposits BoM funding

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Local currency

Foreign currency

Total private bank deposit growth (%)

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

90%

105%

120%

135%

150%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Bank loan growth (y/y, %): LHS

Bank deposit growth (y/y, %): LHS

Loan to deposit ratio (%): RHS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Excess reserves excl. CBB

Claims on government

Central Bank bills

Excess reserve to deposit ratio (%): RHS


35/72

. 2014

2014 7 2015 2

2 10.5 13 .

6 10.9 9 13.7

. 1 4 10

16 . 4

- 9 14.4

5 .

. 2014 12.2

9 13.1 .

,

, . 2015

.

2014 18-19 8

20.1 .

. : (i) ; (ii)

.

32. 2015 .

33. , .

(%) , (, %)

:

., ,

. , 3 8.12 .

4.4 14.1 . ,

,

. , ,

. ,

.

. 2

3 23.3 2.7 .

.

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Overnight loans BoM policy rate

Interbank deposit rate 12 week T-bills

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Interest spread (lending - deposit rate, bps): RHS

BoM policy rate

Avg bank lending rate

Avg bank deposit rate


36/72

,

. ( 34)

8 30

. 9

27 9 16.7 .

8 2

. 9

2,481 75

. 1,746

90 . ( 35)

-

. - 8

30 10 20

.

, .

.

34. , .

35. 8 .

, (y/y, %) Outstanding mortgage loans (trillion MNT)

:

. 9

34 830 . (36)

2015 .

2014 5 9 7 . ( 37)

3.1 5.1

. .

2014 317 9 829

2 .

2014 2.2 9 7.1 .

-40%

-20%

0%

20%40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Agriculture Mining and quarrying

Manufacturing Wholesale and retail

Construction Mortgage loans

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Housing mortgage program (tn MNT): LHS

Commercial mortgages (tn MNT): LHS

Weighted avg mortgage lending rates(%): RHS


37/72

36. 2015

37. .

( ): 2009-15

(%)

* .

: , , -

. 2014 7-8

. : (i)

(120 ); (ii)

1 . 4

16 50 .

2016 , 2018 .

3. 2016

10 1 2016

- . :

a.

2016 7 , 2017-18 5-7

,

,

b.

,

.

,

, .

c. ,

,

.

,

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Size of NPLs (bi ll ions MNT) Size of past-due loans (bil lions MNT)

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

NPLs/outstanding loans(%)

Past-due loans/Outstanding Loans(%)


38/72

d.

. ,

,

. -

2016 .

38. 2 () 39.

( ) , (

)

:,

:, ,

.

.2011-2013

- 25

. ,

, 2014 .

14.4 2014

- 25 11.7 . ( 40)

2015 . 9 486

. 1.4 . .

. 9 318.3

957 . .

610 . 1,214 . .

.

964 . , 691 .

. (41)

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NFA NDA M2

-25

-15-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4

2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Broad money growth (m2) Reserve moneyLoans incl MBS Loans


39/72

40. 2014 .

41. 2015 .

, - : 2008-2014 , ( ., 3 )

: , , -

.

.

.

,

. 2013 40

, ,

.

42. ,

43. 2013

.

, , 2 , (%): 3

,

: , , -

.

2014 17.6

9 29.4 .

2015 . ,

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f

Current Transfers

Income Balance

Services Balance

Trade Balance

Real GDP Growth (%)-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300 Trade balance

Income balance

Services Balance

Current account balance

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

C ur rent A ccount balance (mn $ ) Net FDI inflows (mn $)

M2 growth(y/y, %)

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Mar-1

1

Jun-1

1

Sep-1

1

Dec-1

1

Mar-1

2

Jun-1

2

Sep-1

2

Dec-1

2

Mar-1

3

Jun-1

3

Sep-1

3

Dec-1

3

Mar-1

4

Jun-1

4

Sep-1

4

Dec-1

4

Mar-1

5

Jun-1

5

Sep-1

5

CA Balance (millions of US$)

Trade Balance (millions of US$)

Nominal Exchange Rate (MNT/USD): Right Axis


40/72

35 9 12 .

35 8 9

. 2

.

44.

. 45.

., (%): 3 (%): 3

:, , , -

,

, .

9 32

22.1 , 12.2 .

34.5 . 9

96 . 9

1.9 . 9 36.7

. 99 .

9 41.4 .

16 19 .

2 ,

.

.

-50-40-30-20-10

0102030405060

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Exports (y/y, %)

Imports (y/y, %)

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr-10

Aug-10

Dec-10

Apr-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Apr-12

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

% change in terms of trade (y/y)

Export price index (y/y, %)

Import price index (y/y, %)


41/72

46. , .

47. ... 2015 .

(%): 3

(%): 3

:- , , -

.-

2012 . ,

2014 29.5 1-9

25.6 . 2014

, ,

.

17.5 17 9 . 40

, 35.5 .

48. 2012 .

49. 2014 .

Imports of durable goods and mineral products (y/y % change, 3

month rolling sum)

Imports of consumption goods and mineral products (y/y %

change, 3 month rolling sum)

:- , , -

.

. 2012 4.4 . 2014 382

. 2013 .

. 2015 9 156.5 .

-60%

-30%

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

150%

180%210%

240%

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Copper concentrate exports

Coal exports

Oil exports

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%100%

120%

140%

160%

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Copper concentrates Coal Crude oil

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Food product

Consumption goods

Mineral product


42/72

526.4 . . (50) 227

. 191 .

- .

.

2012 .

2014 2 940 . .

462 . (162 .

, 300 . ).

2014 482 .

. 2015 . 5 6

660 .

. 500 .

, 9.375 5 .

5 . 1 (161 .) 6 7.5

. 630 . 9 .

1.3 . . ( 51)

50. .

51. 1 . .

: . ( .)

: , -

2015 .

9 743 .

172 . . 4 320 . ,

5-8 445 . .

.

9 298 .

300 . .

9 . 4 1,257

. 8 1,728 . .

.

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Net debt financing needs (CA deficit - FDI inflows): LHS

Net FDI inflows: LHS

Current acccount balance (in reversed values): RHS

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net portfolio investment + loans Central bank's net debt-financing


43/72

300 .

300 . 9 1,412

. . 3

. (53).

52. 2015 . 53. 5-8 9 .

, ( .):3

( .)

: , -

. 2014 2015

2015 6

- 180 .

- 162 . ( 54)

- 70

12 .

2014 - 41 , 2014 6 36 6

46.5 . 2014

, 5

. ,

2014 6 - 8.5 6 - 15.5

. 6 -

29.5 6 30.4 (

).

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4(0.4)

(0.2)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Overall BoP Balance

Financial and Capital Account

CA deficit (values in reverse order): RHS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15


44/72

54. 2014 2

55. .

, (-

)

, ( .)

: , -

4.

.

( )-- 3 2 . 2011 24.1 2014 58 . ( , , ) 2011 - 32.7 2014 76.6 .

, . 2011 - 20 (5 .) 2014 42.7 (1.9 .)- . (57) ( -1.5 .,

580 ., -30 , -460 .). 122 . . - 4 14 . . 2012 0.8 2014 2.5 . _ 2014 - 55 2011 23 .

. 2 2012 90 .

2012 . ( ) 2011 2014 - 24 . - 18 . (56) 1/3- .

56.

57. ... .

(- ) , (- )

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010.Q4

2011.Q1

2011.Q2

2011.Q3

2011.Q4

2012.Q1

2012.Q2

2012.Q3

2012.Q4

2013.Q1

2013.Q2

2013.Q3

2013.Q4

2014.Q1

2014.Q2

2014.Q3

2014.Q4

2015.Q1

2015.Q2

Private sector debt

BoM foreign debt

Government and government guaranteed debt

External debt excl. inter-company lending

(2.0)

(1.0)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Q 1 Q 2 Q3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Official reserves (+ means drawdown)Others (incl. errors & omissions)FDI & equity investmentDebt-financing


45/72

: , , -

: -

.

2013

. 2013 .

2013 8

337 . , 8

. , ,

. 2013 3 2015 3

. 1410 1984 , 40

.

, 2013-14 3

. .

.

500 .

4, 5 7

1862 . 6

. . 6

, . 6

7 . 7 1985 .

2000 7

1,900-2,000 . ( 60)

9 5.5 , 6-10 1.4 .

. ,

10 55 ,

11.4 . 7

.

, 10

21.8 8.3 . (59)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f

Govt external debt Govt external guaranteesBoM's foreign debt Govt domestic debtSOE debt

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Foreign central bank

Commercial external guarantees

Commercial external debt

Multilateral and Bilateral debt


46/72

2014 .

3 2014

. NEER REER 4

. (61)

58. 2013

59. .

(USD/MNT): June 2012-Oct 2015 , (2014

Dec=100)

:,

60. . 61. NEER REER 2014 .

, (

.)

NEER and REER (Dec 2012 =100): Jan 2011-Aug 2015

:, -

3 (NEER) .

(REER)

.NEER REER

.

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130 Indonesia Chile

Malaysia Myanmar

Mongolia China

South africa Euro

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

(100)

(50)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

M

iilionsofUSD

The BoM's net sales of f or eig n exchange: L HS USD/MNT : RHS

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Nominal exchange rate (MNT/USD)

NEER

REER

Depreciation


47/72

2015-16 ,

2015 3.3 2.3

. , 3

.

2015 , 2 2

. , , -

, 2

. ,

.

, .

, .

,

.

- 14

.

20 - 0.4 .

2015

2016 , .

.

, 10 -

1 .

, ,

2016

0.8 .

,

2016-17 ,

. , -

,

2018 . . 2016 ,

2 ,

, .


48/72

.

, 2015-16

. ,

2016 . 2-3

20 ,

.

, 2016

2015-16

.

2015 2015 100

, 2016 2016 400

. 2015-16

- 5

.

2014 - 11

2015 - 8-9 , 2016 - 6-7

. 2015 , 600

2 300-400

.

- 3 , - 1-1.5 .

2015

. -

5 ,

,

.

.

,

. ,

2 .

. 2017


49/72

1,080 .

, .

.

4 1,267 . 8

1,728 9 300

. 1,412 .

.

,

,

2 .

.

2015 - 60 .

. 10 2016 - 5 .

62. .

63. .

(

.)

,

(- )

:, , -

. 10

, 2015

6.9 2014 7.4 , 2016 6.7 , 2017 6.5

.

. ,

. 2016

.

.

,

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

Public sector Private sector

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Baseline 10% FX rate shock

20% FX rate shock

Note: The fx rate shock means a 20% further depreciation in

2016 against the US$ compared with the baselince projecton.


50/72

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120

140

160

-1,000

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5,000

7,0009,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Copper ($/ton): LHS

Coal (Australian, $/ton): RHS

Crude oil (average, US$/bbl): RHS


51/72

66. 88

67. 82 .

(%)

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30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

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120.0

150.0

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Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Y/Y export growth to China (%): LHS

Export share of China (% of total exports): RHS

-30%

-15%

0%

15%

30%

45%

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Crude oil Other commodities

Coal Gold

Copper concentrates Commodity export growth (y/y)


52/72

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Mongoliasmajor bond yields (%) Sovereign bond spreads (in basis points: 1% = 100 bps)

:

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Chinggis 10yr Chinnigs 5 yr

Sovereign Dim sum DBM 5 yr

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

SRI LANKA

VIETNAM

MONGOLIA (Chinggis 10yr)

JP Morgan EMBI sovereign spread


53/72

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6According to the Doing Business 2016 report, Mongolias ease of doing business rank impr oved to the 56thin

2015 from 59thin 2014, among 189 countries. For a full report, see

http://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-

Full-Report.pdf.
http://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdfhttp://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdfhttp://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdfhttp://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdfhttp://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdf


54/72

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(entitlement-based programs)- ,

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59/72


60/72

2012 27.6 2014 21.4 5.8 . 2010

2012 11 .

.

3.5 . ( 1).

44 . ( 71).

.

3. 2010 - 14 70. :201014

(%)

2012-14

(%p)

2010 2012 2014

38.8 27.4 21.6 -5.8

33.2 23.3 18.8 -4.5

49.0 3 .5 26.4 -9.1

52.7 32.3 26.0 -6.3

51.9 38.5 25.3 -13.2

29.9 28.3 22.3 -5.9

42.3 33.4 31.4 -2.0

31.2 19.8 16.4 -3.5

Strata 4 locations

Ulaanbaatar 31.2 19.8 16.4 -3.5

Aimag center 37.3 30.4 23.8 -6.6

Soum center 39.7 27.5 24.7 -2.8

Countryside 56.1 39.7 27.9 -11.7

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80

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2010-12 2012-14

Absolutecontributiontochangeinpovert

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Interaction effect

Population-shift effect

Ulaanbaatar

East

Central

Highlands

West


61/72

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63/72

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9- 2010 - , 2013

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64/72

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:

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1661 .

http://www.mongolbank.mn/eng/liststatistic.aspx?did=3.

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

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2010 2011 2012 2013

-
http://www.mongolbank.mn/eng/liststatistic.aspx?did=3http://www.mongolbank.mn/eng/liststatistic.aspx?did=3http://www.mongolbank.mn/eng/liststatistic.aspx?did=3


65/72

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67/72

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Source: SW/PMT data, World Bank staff estimates.

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