money-morning-140715-10-1407150955

Money Morning 14 July 2015

Page No: 1

Aditya Birla Money Limited

Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | of f W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800

Page No. Page No.

Corporate News 2 Event Calendar 4

Macro-Economic News 2 Bulk Deals 5

Derivative Corner 3 Price Shockers 5

8522 8511

8363

8329

8361

8460

8200

8250

8300

8350

8400

8450

8500

8550

(6000)

(4000)

(2000)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

6-Jul 7-Jul 8-Jul 9-Jul 10-Jul 13-Jul

(` Mn) Provisional Figures for Investments

FII (LHS) MF (LHS) Nifty (RHS)

Source: NSE

8485

8522 8511

8363

8329

8361

8460

16.316.0

16.3

17.817.4

17.1

16.3

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

8200

8250

8300

8350

8400

8450

8500

8550

3-Jul 6-Jul 7-Jul 8-Jul 9-Jul 10-Jul 13-Jul

Nifty Spot (LHS) INDIA VIX (RHS)

Source: NSE

Indian Indices

1 Day MTD YTD

Sensex 1.1 0.6 1.7

Nifty 1.2 1.1 2.1

CNX Midcap 1.3 3.3 6.8

CNX IT 1.9 (0.3) (1.9)

Bankex 0.9 3.3 0.8

Auto 1.6 (0.1) 0.4

Metal 0.5 (4.5) (17.1)

FMCG 1.1 0.0 1.1

Global Indices

1 Day MTD YTD

Shanghai 3.8 (5.9) 24.4

Nikkei 225 3.1 0.8 16.9

Straits Times 1.1 0.0 (1.4)

Hang Seng 1.0 (4.2) 6.6

DJIA 1.2 2.0 0.9

S&P 500 1.1 1.8 2.0

FTSE 1.0 3.3 2.6

Dollar Index (0.0) 1.4 7.3

Live Markets

Nikkei SGX Nifty

Hang

Seng

Current Quote 20,392 8,487 25,155

% Change 1.5% 0.0% (0.3%)

Volumes Moving Average (Rs bn)

1 Day 5 Day 30 Day

BSE CASH 25 30 28

NSE CASH 143 133 148

NSE F&O 2090 1723 2254

Institutional Activities (Net)

1 Day MTD YTD

FII (Rs bn) 5.3 6.3 187.7

MF (Rs bn) (1.7) (7.4) 249.7

Bond Market

1 Day 1M 1 Yr

10Yr Yield (G-Sec) 7.87 7.86 7.86

Currency Market

1day MTD YTD

INR/USD (0.2) 0.2 (0.7)

INR/EURO 0.8 1.2 8.9

INR/GBP (0.3) 1.3 (0.5)

Commodities Update

Unit Close 1 Day MTD YTD

Crude Oil(NYME) $/Bbl 52 (0.8) (13.0) (2.8)

Gold (OTC) $/Oz 1,156 (0.2) (1.4) (2.4)

Copper (LME) $/MT 5,574 (0.1) (3.1) (12.5)

Aluminum (LME) $/MT 1,673 1.0 1.3 (8.3)

Sugar (LIFFE) $/MT 374 0.3 1.0 (4.4)

Zinc (LME) $/MT 2,053 2.1 2.7 (5.7)

Baltic Dry Index 3.0 12.5 15.1

Last Close

3,311

20,090

70.33

3,970

1.3%

% Change

% Change

As on 08:15 hours IST

10,999

18,894

18,698

8,916

Last Close

27,961

8,460

13,433

25,224

17,978

2,100

6,738

7,789

Spot market

% Change

Historical Data (%)

900

97

% Change

98.79

Last Close

63.52

Shanghai

4,024

Source: Bloomberg

Index

Nifty vs Institutional Movement

Nifty vs India VIX


Page No: 2



As per media sources, Fairfax India offer to acquire 26% of IIFL Holdings Limited Deal likely to be at Rs 195/share; Medium to

long term positive for IIFL

Fairfax India Holdings Corporation ("Fairfax India") announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, FIH Mauritius Investments Ltd ("FIH"), has

issued a public announcement of an open offer to acquire up to approximately 83,128,852 equity shares of IIFL Holdings Limited ("IIFL"),

formerly India Infoline Limited, at a price of INR 195 per share (approximately US$ 3.07 per share at current exchange rates) other than

those shares already owned by it and its affiliates according to regulations of the Securities and Exchange Board of India for substantial

acquisitions of shares and takeovers (the "Offer"). Assuming full acceptances in the Offer, FIH will, together with certain of its affiliates,

acquire 26% of the outstanding shares of IIFL for an aggregate consideration of INR 16.21 Billion (approximately US$ 255 mill ion at current

exchange rates) by way of the Offer. The Offer is expected to close later this year subject to receipt of regulatory approvals in India.

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited ("Fairfax"), Fairfax India's parent, currently owns approximately 8.97% of IIFL and has an economic

interest in another approximately 5.24% of IIFL through derivative instruments (all acquired prior to the establishment of Fairfax India).

Fairfax India was established by Fairfax to invest in businesses in India with a view to long-term capital appreciation. Fairfax India is

familiar with IIFL through Fairfax's long-standing prior ownership interest in IIFL and is executing on its strategy by making this Offer.

Current market price is Rs 188/share, implying limited upside for the stock, as per the deal offer. We expect the deal to have positive

impact on IIFL in medium to long term.

Macro-Economic and Other News International News

India June CPI Inflation Exceeds Forecast

India's consumer price inflation accelerated more-than-expected

in June, cooling expectations that the central bank may reduce

interest rates further, official figures revealed Monday. The

consumer price index rose 5.40 % annually after a 5.01 % climb

in May. Economists had forecast a 5.1% increase. Food price

inflation accelerated to 5.48 % from 4.80% in the previous

month. The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy agreement

with the government unveiled this year targets inflation at 6% by

January 2016 and at 4% by the end of 2017-18.

Japan Industrial Production Falls Less Than Estimate

Industrial production declined a seasonally adjusted 2.1 % month-

over-month in May, revised down from a 2.2 % drop in the flash

data. In April, production had risen 1.2 %.shipments in May

decreased 1.9% from the previous month, came in line with

preliminary report. Inventories fell 0.8 % in May, confirming the

flash data. At the same time, inventory ratio climbed 1.9 %, as

estimated earlier, following a 1.0% decline in the preceding month.

On an annual basis, industrial production slipped 3.9% in May,

reversing a 0.1% mere increase in April. The capacity utilization

rate slid a seasonally adjusted 3.0% in May, faster than prior

month's 0.4% drop. It was the fourth consecutive monthly fall. On

an unadjusted basis, it dipped 6.8% from the previous year.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise More Than Expected In May

The report said wholesale inventories increased by 0.8 % in May

after rising by 0.4% in April. Economists had expected inventories

to rise by 0.3 %.The bigger than expected increase in wholesale

inventories was partly due to a jump in inventories of non-durable

goods, which surged up by 1.2%.Inventories of petroleum and

petroleum products soared by 4.4 %, while inventories of drugs

and druggists' sundries surged up by 2.7 %.The report said

inventories of durable goods also climbed by 0.6%, reflecting

notable increases in inventories of computer equipment and

software and motor vehicle parts and supplies. The Commerce

Department also said wholesale sales rose by 0.3 % in May after

surging up by 1.7% in April.

Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg, RTT News

Corporate News/Results Corner


Page No: 3



Da

ily P

ric

e C

ha

ng

e (

%)

Daily % Change in Open Interest* (Futures Current month)

Short Covering`

Long Built

Up

Profit Booking / long Unwind

Short Built Up `

Note: Summation of three series of future

Nifty Grid % Change in Price


Page No: 4



Economy Monday 13th July Tues 14th July Wed 15th July Thurs 16th July Friday 17hJuly

Domestic CPI YOY Jun (Actual

5.40% Exp 5.10%,

Prior5.01%)

Global

UK:

CPI MOM Jun (

Exp 0.10% , Prior

0.20%)

CPI YOY Jun ( Exp

0.10% , Prior 0.10%)

Germany :

CPI MOM Jun ( Exp

-0.10% , Prior -

0.10%)

CPI YOY Jun ( Exp

0.30% , Prior 0.30%

UK:

Claimant Count Rate

JUN ( Exp 2.30% ,

Prior 2.30%)

Jobless Claims

Change

Jun ( Exp -8.0K ,

Prior -6.5K)

France:

CPI MOM Jun ( Exp

0.00 % , Prior 0.20%)

CPI YOY Jun ( Exp

0.40%, Prior0.30%)

US:

Initial Jobless Claims

June (Prior297 K)

Continuing Claims

June (Prior2334K)

China

Industrial Production YoY

June ( Exp 6.00%)

Source: Bloomberg

Event Calendar


Page No: 5



Company Acquirer Qty Price Seller Qty Price

Good Luck Steel Tubes Ltd Pure Share Consultant(India) Pvt Ltd 204042 107.93 Pure Share Consultant(India) Pvt Ltd 204042 107.97

Granules India Limited N A Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte 1498802 85.12

Lambodhara Textiles Ltd. Jhaveri Trading And Investment Pvt. Ltd. 36000 909.45 N A

Sharon Bio-Medi Ltd N A Kala Asha Mohan 2063000 21.75

N.A. = Not Available

Source: BSE & NSE

Gainers Losers

Company

Close

price (`)

Change

Price (`)

Change

Price (%) Company

Close

price (`)

Change

Price (`)

Change

Price (%)

NIITTECH 417.3 28.9 7.4 BHUSANSTL 68.4 (4.2) (5.8)

DCBBANK 147.2 9.5 6.9 SINTEX 101.8 (6.2) (5.7)

FSL 33.7 2.0 6.3 JPINFRATEC 17.1 (0.5) (2.9)

CENTRALBK 110.8 6.4 6.1 RTNPOWER 7.9 (0.2) (2.5)

DISHTV 109.5 5.7 5.4 HCC 23.5 (0.5) (1.9)

TVSMOTOR 270.7 13.7 5.3 SUPREMEIND 645.8 (10.8) (1.6)

RALLIS 254.0 11.5 4.7 FRL 107.0 (1.7) (1.6)

MOTHERSUMI 528.8 23.7 4.7 SRTRANSFIN 924.5 (14.4) (1.5)

KEC 148.1 6.6 4.7 BAJAJHLDNG 1,427.7 (21.2) (1.5)

BHARATFORG 1,123.4 49.6 4.6 GRUH 249.7 (3.4) (1.3)

DELTACORP 78.5 3.4 4.5 PMCFIN 6.0 (0.1) (1.3)

APOLLOTYRE 183.1 7.5 4.3 SAIL 58.5 (0.8) (1.3)

WELCORP 129.6 5.3 4.3 KAILASH 11.3 (0.1) (1.2)

COX&KINGS 277.7 11.3 4.2 ARVIND 280.1 (2.9) (1.0)

PVR 712.6 28.6 4.2 ONGC 290.9 (3.0) (1.0)

Source: BSE

Bulk Deal

Price Shockers


Page No: 6



Research Team

Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral

Head of Research Head Derivatives Desk

022-61802820 022-61802870

[email protected] [email protected]

Fundamental Team

Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps 022-61802831 [email protected]

Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate 022-61802829 [email protected]

Jaymin Trivedi Banking & Finance 022-61802833 [email protected]

Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst 022-61207625 [email protected]

Quantitative Team

Sudeep Shah Sr.Technical Analyst 022-61802837 [email protected]

Rahil Vora Technical Analyst 022-61802834 [email protected]

Soni Patnaik Derivative Analyst 022-61802832 [email protected]

Advisory Support

Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk 022-61207619 [email protected]

Salim Hajiani Advisory Desk 022-61207618 [email protected]

Mohan Jaiswal Executive Research Support 022-61802838 [email protected]

ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR


Page No: 7



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