Money in state politicsMoney in state politics

Ronald CampbellRonald Campbell

The Orange County RegisterThe Orange County Registerrcampbell@ocregister.comrcampbell@ocregister.com

The legal backgroundThe legal background

• States set their own limits – or none at all – for elections.

• These limits can be many times the limit for federal candidates.– In California, $24,000 max to governor,

$3,600 to legislators

• Buckley v. Valeo: No limit on donations to causes. So initiatives are free-for-alls.

Big money, part 1Big money, part 1

• Not all the big money goes to Washington

• $871 million for U.S. House races

• $453 million for U.S. Senate races

• $700 million for state contests in California

• $142 million for a single CA initiative – nearly equal to top three Senate races combined

Initiatives: The Wild WestInitiatives: The Wild West

• Nothing similar in federal system

• Often used to bypass legislature

• No compromises! Advocates get exactly what they want.

• Bribery is legal. Sort of.

• Playground for wealthy interests

Big money, part 2Big money, part 2

• Initiatives attract far more money than do candidate elections– California 2006: $124 million for governor’s

race and $327 million for initiatives– Arizona 2006: $3.7 million for governor’s race

and $32.5 million for initiatives– Colorado 2006: $8.1 million for governor’s

race and $16.5 million for initiatives

Why give to state races?Why give to state races?

• Big issues (health care, alternative energy, gay marriage) can be resolved by states long before Congress acts.

• Big money has an outsized impact in state races.

• Most regulated businesses are regulated by states – not the federal government. And these businesses give money.

From the sublime …From the sublime …

• “Battle of the ankle” – podiatrists and orthopedists in several states have battled for exclusive rights to this joint. Legislators are the (paid) referees.

• Roads, public works and other “juice”.

Tracing the moneyTracing the money

• Followthemoney.org – documents campaign spending in most states

• Cal-Access, the official site for state campaign reports in California.

• A handful of local sites such as LA City Ethics Commission

Who are the big donors?Who are the big donors?

• They’re hard to find. You know the top local politician. Do you know the top local donor? The top local pol does.

• Top donors have a big impact on public policy. The public needs to know who they are.

• And they may care passionately about state and federal politics.

Marrying dataMarrying data

• Federal Elections Commission

• Internal Revenue Service (527 committees)

• State agency (usually Secretary of State

• That’s three databases, each subtly different from the others.

• And that’s three different filing deadlines.

What’s in a name?What’s in a name?

• Names show up many different formats– Bing, Stephen L.– Bing, Steve– Stephen L. Bing– Bing Stephen

• And with different spellings– A.G. Spanos– Alex Spanos– Alexander G. Spanos

Version 1: FECVersion 1: FEC

Version 2: IRSVersion 2: IRS

Version 3: CA SOSVersion 3: CA SOS

Spouses and businessesSpouses and businesses

• Many big donors split donations between husband and wife. So you have to link them.– Property records– Society pages

• Many big donors own their businesses and give through them – so you have to know their businesses too.

Avoiding false positivesAvoiding false positives

• Look for something besides similar names to tie variant spellings together.

• Same spouse (usually)

• Zip codes

• Business and occupation

• Business names and addresses.

Use an alias tableUse an alias table

• Once you’re sure you know the variations on a donor’s name, let a computer match donations for you.

• Two-field table: standard name and variation.

• Join alias table to your data, then group by standard name to add all the donations .

My alias tableMy alias table

California’s biggest donorsCalifornia’s biggest donors

• Top 100 donors gave $150 million in 2003-2004.

• They bankrolled stem-cell initiative – a $3 billion bet by a nearly bankrupt state.

• They forced Legislature to reverse itself on workers comp, financial privacy bills.

• They kept the 2004 presidential race close.