money, banking and financial markets lecture by neven mates
TRANSCRIPT
Money, banking and financial markets
Lecture by
Neven Mates
Money
• Medium of exchange
• Unit of account
• Store of value
Medium of exchange
• Barter: At the beginning of market economy, people were occasionally exchanging surpluses of their production: surplus of wheat for surplus of wool, etc.
• As soon as producers started specializing, barter became impractical
• One or several goods started to be used as the medium of exchange
• One would exchange his product for the medium of exchange, and later would use this medium to purchase a third product.
Unit of account
• Instead of measuring value of a unit of one good in units of all other goods (one sheep is x kg of wheat, y kg. of barley, z kg of mushrooms), people started measuring everything in a quantity of only one commodity: either gold, silver, copper, wheat.
Store of value
• If we do not want to consume everything that we produced today, we want to save.
• If we are producing wheat, we can save wheat for consumption next year. Not so if we produce ice-cream.
• One option is to save in the medium of exchange, which can later be exchanged for any good.
• As a store of value, money intermediates between production today and consumption tomorrow.
• But it is only one form of storing value.
First form of money: Commodity money
• To be used as the medium of exchange, the particular commodity has to have the following qualities:– easy to transport – easy to measure– easy to keep in storage– accepted by large number of individuals.
Historical examples: Gold, silver, copper, shells, precious and semiprecious stones.
• 1 Troy ounce: 31.08.. grams
• Value:1 troy oz. fine gold • Mass 33.93 g (1.09 troy oz)• Diameter 32.6 mm (1.28 in)• Thickness 2.84 mm (0.11 in)• Composition Gold (91.67% Au, 8.33% Cu)• Years of minting1967-Present
Representative money
• Even gold is not easy to carry.• You can give it to someone whom you trust to treasure it.
He would give you a receipt.• Instead of paying with a golden coin, you can pay with
this receipt. Various forms of receipts: – Banknote — a promissory note issued by a bank that the holder
is entitled to receive gold from the banker (person who is storing gold). Invented in China, later in Europe (17th century).
– Letter of credit. – Deposits, recorded in bank books. Payments can then be made
by transferring funds kept in deposit: You tell our bank to pay either by writing a transfer order or a cheque.
Various types of money:
• Commodity money• Paper money (banknotes)• Banking money (deposits)
At the time of the golden standard, all these forms of money represented claims that could, if requested, be exchanged into gold.
The golden standard dominated until World War I.
Banking and credit• Bankers were originally individuals with whom people were able to
deposit commodity money (gold). • But banks do not need to keep all gold deposited with them in
storage. All depositors will not come at the same moment to request redemption of banknotes or the payout of deposits.
• Banks can therefore extent credit to borrowers, and keep only part of the deposits as a liquid reserve. This is called fractional reserve banking.
• By extending credit, banks increase deposits of their other customers.
• In this way they create money.• Now the quantity of money is no longer equal to the quantity of gold
(which might be consider to be the ultimate money), but it is equal to the quantity of gold in circulation (i.e. not in banks) plus the amount of deposits.
How is money created by credit?
• Phase 1• Person has 100 golden coins. Total amount of money is 100
guldens.• Phase 2• He deposits 100 guldens in the bank and receives 100 banknotes,
each promising the payment of one gulden. The quantity of money in hands of non-banking individuals is still only 100, but now it is in the form of banknotes.
• Phase 3• Banks approves 75 guldens as credit and pays the coins out. • The total amount of money:• 75 guldens in coins held by non-banks + 100 guldens in
banknotes=175• The bank keeps 25 guldens as a reserve.
How is money created by credit 2
• Phase 4• Those that have received guldens as borrowers
take them to other banks and they get banknotes. Total amount of money remains 175
• Phase 5• Other banks keep 25% of deposits as reserves,
but use the rest to extend credit.• End result:• If nobody insists on holding coins, the total
amount of banknotes (and money) equals 400. Banks held 100 coins as reserves.
Central banking• Banknotes were originally issued by many banks.• They were an attractive source of funding, because banknotes do
not carry interest. But depositors do not have to pay for storing their gold with banks.
• Governments soon starter to monopolize the issuance of banknotes.• They did that by granting the exclusive right of issuing banknotes to
only one bank. • In return, this bank would often become creditor to the government.• Later, governments would also impose obligation on other banks to
keep some percentage of their deposits with the bank authorized to issue banknotes.
• This is called the reserve requirement, and such bank is called the central bank. Take note that originally, many central banks were privately owned.
• Governments also gradually introduced restrictions on bank holdings of gold.
Golden standard
• Under the golden standard, all other forms of money were ultimately exchangeable into gold.
• By creating paper and bank money, countries were able to save resources for production of gold.
• Governments soon found ways to discourage people from holding gold, either as specie or in golden coins.
• This was achieved by introducing the legal tender: Governments proclaimed by law that all contractual obligations were to be settled with banknotes.
• Commercial banks were also encouraged to settle their net payments via accounts held with the central bank, and not by gold.
• Less demand there was for gold, more credit could be given to the government and more gold could be used for payments abroad.
• As long as the quantity of money created was roughly in line with demand, the situation was stable.
On the way to fiat money I
• During World War I, most countries suspended conversion of banknotes into golden coins or bullion.
• Some countries later re-introduced the possibility of conversion into gold, but at different rate than the original one.
• In some countries, banks were forbidden to hold gold.• The US in 1933 forbid by law that citizens hold more
than very limited quantity of golden coins. • Gold lost the status of legal tender in domestic
payments. This function was given to banknotes, issued by the central bank of the country. Other banks already lost right to issue banknotes.
On the way to fiat money II
• After the Great Depression, the gold convertibility still applied in international payments, but golden content of the currencies was occasionally adjusted.
• The US honored that other central banks can request that their holdings of dollar be converted into gold all the way to 1971.
• But then, after the US ran a large budget deficit during the Vietnam war and as a result lost huge amount of its golden reserves, the convertibility of the U.S. $ was abandoned.
• Money in all countries ceased to be linked to gold. Money became fiat money, i.e. its quantity become determined by the banking system, with no link to any specific commodity.
• In such system, the central bank creates reserve money via credit or by buying foreign reserves.
• By extending credit, commercial banks create bank money.• In this way, money used by the public is much larger than reserve money created by
the central bank. The ratio of money to reserve money is called the monetary multiplier.
How is the fiat money created?
Phase 1Assets Liabilities20 reserves with central bank 80 deposits20 Treasury bills 20 capital60 loans
Reserve requirement is 25%. The bank is just meeting the requirement.The bank cannot lend.
Phase 2: The central bank purchases T-billsAssets Liabilities40 reserves with the central bank 80 deposits60 loans 20 capital
The amount of reserves has gone up by 20. Bank has free reserves of 20. It can lend.
How is fiat money created 2• Phase 3: Bank lends free reserves• Assets Liabilities• 40 reserves 100 deposits• 80 loans 20 capital
• Take note that the amount of deposits has gone up from 80 to 100.
• Phase 4: Borrowers make payments to customers of another bank. • Assets Liabilities• 20 reserves 80 deposits• 80 loans 20 capital
• Take note: Reserves have been transferred to the other bank. They now have 20 more in reserves and 20 in new deposits. The reserve requirement on new deposits is 5 (25% of 20). Their free reserves are 15. They can lend.
Money multiplier
• System with no cash:
Multiplier=M/R=1/RR
where
M is money (total of deposits)
R is reserve money (claims of banks on the central bank)
RR is the required reserve ratio. It might be mandatory or voluntary.
Money multiplier
• System with cashMultiplier= M/R= (1+CD)/(RR+CD)whereCD is cash/deposit ratio.Outflow of reserve money into cash reduces
the multiplier.Reserve requirement reduces the multiplier.Free reserves reduce the multiplier.
What determines the aggregate price level under the golden standard in a closed economy?
Relative prices of all goods and the gold were determined by the relative costs of production.
Simplified: If it takes 100 hours to produce 1 g of hold and 50 hours to produce 1 tone of wheat, then the price of wheat is 0.5 g of gold.
If production costs of gold go up, relative prices of all other goods go down. Aggregate price level then declines.
In 12th and in 15th century, new silver mines were discovered, which led to a decline in costs of producing silver. This resulted in inflation, as many countries at the time were on silver standard.
What determines the aggregate price level under the fiat money in a closed economy?
• As long as the money was linked to some commodity, the aggregate price level depended on costs of producing goods that enter GDP relative to the cost of producing that commodity.
• Once the link has been severed, the aggregate price level becomes determined by the relation between demand and supply of money.
• If supply surpasses demand, there is an inflationary pressure. If demand for money is higher than supply, there is deflationary pressure.
• Supply is influenced by the central bank: This creates scope for monetary policy, about which you will learn more in one of the next lectures.
Money: Degrees of liquidity
Croatia: Monetary survey in mlrd KRK August 2011
Assets 327Foreign assets 42Domestic credit
to government 29to other non-financial institutions 252to other financial insitutions 4
Liabilities 327Currency in circulation 18 M1 Narrow MoneyCurrent accounts 36 M1 Narrow MoneySaving and time deposits 39 M2 Broad moneyForeign currency deposits 145 M3 Quasi moneyBonds and simmilar instruments 2 M4 Quasi moneyRestricted and blocked deposits 3 Quasi moneyCapital accounts and other items net 84
Source: HNB Bulletin 174
Money: Degrees of liquidity
• Money: The medium of exchange and the store of value• Medium of exchange: Only the most liquid forms of
money: Cash in circulation plus current account deposits - M1
• Store of value: Includes also less liquids forms – time deposits. Together M2.
• Store of value: Also foreign currency deposits. Altogether – Broad money
• Reserve money: Cash (in circulation and in bank vaults) + bank accounts with the central bank.
• Also called base money or high-powered money.
How central banks affect the quantity of money—closed economy or open economy with floating ER
• CB sells and buys government or other safe paper, which increases or reduces free reserves of banks.
• Ample free reserves: Banks lend more, and vice versa.
• CB can target either quantity of money or the level of interest rates. It cannot do both.
• Under inflation targeting, the CBs set the level of interest rate at which they are willing to lend.
How central banks affect the quantity of money—closed economy or open economy with floating ER
• Excess liquidity but banks not willing to lend?
• The only option available is then that the CB buys assets, takes over credit risk, and reduces interest rates in selected markets.
• Called Quantitative Easing.
ECB rates
How central banks affect the quantity of money—open economy with fixed ER
• The CB keeps the exchange rate stable by buying and selling forex.
• The balance of payments (the sum of the external current and capital account) then determines changes in free reserves of banks.
• Ample reserves—more credit—more domestic demand+lower domestic interest rates= correction in BoP, and vice versa.
Open economy with fixed ER—Sterilized interventions
• BoP ouflows: Contraction in liquidity, but CB can offset this by extending credit to banks. But this causes soon even larger loss of reserves.
• BoP inflows: Supply of liquidity. The CB tries to sterilize this by placing its securities in the market. However, this soon becomes expensive.
• It can also increase reserve requirements, which imposes regulatory costs.
• But in general not very effective. Credit moves outside of the banking system.
Broad financial sector
• So far we focused on banks, which are always in the centre of financial system.
• In addition to bank deposits, households and corporations keep other forms of financial instruments: Bonds and shares. In this way savers and borrowers circumvent the banking system
• Households can often let various investment funds to handle their assets. This allows them to participate in a larger number of securities.
What determines the choice of financial assets by investors?
• Expected return– The average return– Volatility (variability of the rate of return, including the
possibility of default)
Fixed income instruments: – Nominal interest i– Real interest r= (1+i)/(1+CPI) – 1
Variable income instruments: Indexed securities, bonds
As a rule, assets with higher average return are also more volatile.
Dow industrial index
Daily market report
Add ticker
Chart
Dow Industrial Index
Current interest rates
Volatility of stock markets
CROBEX
0
1000
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4000
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60009
/97
2/9
87
/98
12
/95
/99
10
/93
/00
8/0
01
/01
6/0
11
1/0
4/0
29
/02
2/0
37
/03
12
/05
/04
10
/03
/05
8/0
51
/06
6/0
61
1/0
4/0
79
/07
2/0
87
/08
12
/05
/09
10
/03
/10
8/1
01
/11
6/1
11
1/1
CROBEX
Volatility of bond markets
CROBIS
80
85
90
95
100
105
1109
/02
2/0
3
7/0
3
12
/0
5/0
4
10
/0
3/0
5
8/0
5
1/0
6
6/0
6
11
/0
4/0
7
9/0
7
2/0
8
7/0
8
12
/0
5/0
9
10
/0
3/1
0
8/1
0
1/1
1
6/1
1
11
/1
CROBIS