module projections berhanu taye

37
Training Title and Purpose: TVET Annual Questionnaire and Software Training for Private, Government and Non Government TVET Institutions አćቃላይ TVET ትምህርት ገĤታ በግል፡ መንግስታዊ እና መንግስታዊ ያልሆኑ TVET ተቋሞችላይ Gulele Sub-City TVET office BY: BERHANU TADESSE TAYE

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Page 1: Module  projections berhanu taye

Training Title and Purpose: TVET Annual

Questionnaire and Software Training for

Private, Government and Non Government

TVET Institutions አ ቃላይ የ TVET ትምህርት ገ ታ በግል፡ መንግስታዊ እና

መንግስታዊ ያልሆኑ TVET ተቋሞችላይ

Gulele Sub-City TVET office

BY: BERHANU TADESSE TAYE

Page 2: Module  projections berhanu taye

ትወራ /projection/ mean a forecasting based on present

trends አዲስ ገቢ ተማሪዎች + ደጋሚ ተማሪዎች= ተማሪዎች በክፍል

TVET Annual Questionnaire and Software Training ትምህርት ባለሙያዎች የተዘጋጀ ስል ና

ሚያዚያ 2007

Page 3: Module  projections berhanu taye

General information about the training

Training duration one day

Methods of presentation, short lecture, individual

exercises, group activities and discussions, project work,

using energizer between the session and question and

answer

Target group, private TVET data processers /owners/

Governmental and non governmental TVET data

processers /deans/ the training also accommodate for

executives, managers, supervisors,

Page 4: Module  projections berhanu taye

•መግቢያ •በክፍለከተማ both private and government TVET institutes የሚታዩ የትምህርት ችግሮች በርካታና ዘርፈ ብዙ ሊሆኑ ይችላሉ ፡፡ ከእነዚህም

መካካል የመረጃ አያያዝ እና አሰረ ጨት አስፈላጊነው እነሱም ለ አካል

ጉዳተኞች ተደራሽ አለመሆን ኢፍትጠዊ (የ ታ የአካባቢ ወዘተ . . )

የትምህርት ሥርጭት ከፍተኛ የትምህርት ውስጣዊ ብክነት የትምህርት

ጥራት መጓደል ደካማ የትምህርት ዕቅድና አስተዳደር ወዘተ . . . ችግሮች

ሊሆኑ ይችላሉ ፡፡ •ችግሮች ከተለያዩ በኋላ እያንዳንቸው በጥሞና መተንተን ይኖርባቸዋል

ለዚህም የበለ ጥናት ለመስራት የመረጃ አያያዝ እና አሰረ ጨት እጥረት

መፈታት ለተመራ ማሪዎች ወሳኝን ሚና ይ ወታል በመሆኑም ያህ ስል ና

ተዘጋጀቶል፡፡

Page 5: Module  projections berhanu taye

ርዕሶች

ምዕራፍ 1፡ 1. INTRODUCTION TO EMIS:

• CONCEPTS AND FEATURES

• EMIS and Related Concepts • ምዕራፍ 2 የተማሪ ብዛት ትወራ ስልት

• ምዕራፍ 3፡ የሚጣሉ ግቦችና የተማሪዎች ትወራ

• ምዕራፍ 4፡ መሰረታዊ ግብዓቶችን መተወር

• ምዕራፍ 5፡ የ፤ልፍ ግብዓቶች ዋጋ መገመት፡፡

Page 6: Module  projections berhanu taye

TVET Annual Questionnaire all private and government TVET institute focused to fill the particular

document of Microsoft office Excel the doc name is 2. TVET institutions Questionnaire it holds

from page one to page eight and annex 1, 2 and OS streaming

1. I/. INSTITUTION IDENTIFICATION AND LOCATION

2. IV/. Characteristics and condition of buildings

3. V/. TRAINER AND ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF DESCRIPTION

4.1. VI/. ENROLMENT DATA (Regular Program)

4.2. VI/. ENROLMENT DATA (Regular Program) Conti ….

5.1.VII/. ENROLMENT DATA (Evening Program)

5.2.VII/. ENROLMENT DATA (Evening Program) Conti …. 6. VIII/. Program Completers and Dropouts (number of trainees who completed and Dropout last year)

7. IX/. REFERENCE S AVAILABLE

8. XI/. INSTITUTION GENERAL INFORMATION

Annex1 - To be used for filling enrollment and buildings

CATALOGUE OF OCCUPATIONAL STANDARDS

Annex 2 - To be used to fill teachers description and books

CATALOGUE OF OCCUPATIONAL STANDARDS

Page 7: Module  projections berhanu taye

• ምዕራፍ 1 What is EMIS

• The acronym EMIS stands for “Education

Management Information System”. • It is a system for organizing information base in a

systemic way for the management of educational

development.

• Its function is collecting, storing, integrating,

organizing, analyzing, managing and distributing

information for educational planning and

management.

• It provides timely, cost effective and user appropriate

information to support educational planning and

management.

Page 8: Module  projections berhanu taye

• What is EMIS? (Con’t…) • It provides information on state of education, its

internal and external efficiency, its pedagogical and institutional operations, its performance, its

shortcomings and needs. • It includes tool (software) to assist in data

collection, storage and analysis.

• It collects and stores data, but also processes information that is used for formulating

educational policies, management, monitoring and evaluation..

Page 9: Module  projections berhanu taye

Knowledge

Symbols

Data

Information

Diagram 1: Information pyramid to indicate the levels of hierarchy

in the development of information.

At the base of the pyramid are fundamental symbols:

letters, numerals, other codes, such as signs.

Page 10: Module  projections berhanu taye

What is data/information?

• Data is the raw material to a finished

product- which is information.

o Information is data that has been put

into meaningful and useful context.

Page 11: Module  projections berhanu taye

2. The Benefits of EMIS Improving capacities in collecting, processing,

storing, analyzing and disseminating data in order

that decision makers, administrators, and

managers could base their decisions on timely

and reliable data.

Centralize and coordinate the dispersed efforts in

acquiring, processing, analyzing and

disseminating education management information

system

Rationalize the nature and flow of information

necessary for decision making by reducing and

eliminating duplication, and by filling in the

information gaps.

Page 12: Module  projections berhanu taye

B. Institutional Framework/structure of EMIS in Ethiopia

Federal

Ministry of

Education

and TVET

bureau .

TVET Agency, Regional Education

Bureaus (REBs)

Sub-City TVET office and Woreda Education

Offices

TVET institutes and other Educational Establishments

Page 13: Module  projections berhanu taye

4. Principles of Data Collection

In order to produce quality, reliable and useful data,

data collection must be guided by certain core

principles. Some of the principles are :-

Clarity

• The data collected should be based on clear

definitions free of all ambiguities.

• Data gathering instruments and tools must be as

clear as possible.

• In order to have shared understanding, standard

terminologies must be used in order to facilitate

communication nationally and internationally.

Page 14: Module  projections berhanu taye

Principles (cont’d…) Completeness •Getting data that is complete (fewer or no missing values),

•The data should be complete in the sense that they should be based on a complete list of the

public and private education establishments. Accuracy •This principle stresses that the data should be

accurate or exact. •The data collected must be checked for exactness at all stages of data collection, data

entry and compilation

Page 15: Module  projections berhanu taye

Principles (cont’d…) Adequacy

•This principle underlines that the data should be

sufficiently detailed.

•Aggregation of data should be carried out without a

significant loss due to aggregation in information, and

the possibility of tracing information must be ensured.

Page 16: Module  projections berhanu taye

Principles (cont’d…)

Timeliness

•The time that the national Education Statistics Annual Abstracts

should be released.

•Lack of updated and timely data is a real challenge for education

planners and decision makers.

•Current or up-to-date information enables planners to base future

initiatives on what they know to be existing capacity and realities

in the education sector.

•There are often too long time-gaps between data collection and

publication, planning and monitoring in education. Accessibility

• The comprehensibility (readability) of the data that it should be

accessible in terms of difficulty to read.

• The collected data should be simple in concept and easy to

measure.

• Accessibility may also refer to the availability of the data for

potential users.

Page 17: Module  projections berhanu taye

Principles (cont’d…) Regularity

It should be frequently released/reported according to

the planned EMIS schedule for activities and

methods.

Any delay from deadlines will create delay leading to

un-timeliness of data discussed in the above section.

Consistency

All the data must be recorded using the same definition

and measurement within the system.

Page 18: Module  projections berhanu taye

•Data Collection

•Data Processing

•Reporting

•Publication

•Dissemination

•Feedback

5. The EMIS Life cycle

•Data Analysis

Page 19: Module  projections berhanu taye

ምዕራፍ 2

የተማሪ ብዛት ትወራ

• ትወራ ማለት ምን ማለት ነው?

• የተማሪ ትወራ ጥቅም

በዕቅድ ዘመን የሚኖረውን የተማሪ ብዛት ለማወቅ

አስፈላጊ የሆኑ ፤ልፍ ግብዓቶችን ለማወቅ

የ፤ልፍ ግብዓቶችን ግምታዊ ወ ለማወቅ፡፡

Page 20: Module  projections berhanu taye

በተማሪ የሽግግር ሞዴል የሚወሰዱ ታሳቢዎች

1. በየክፍሉ የተዛወሩት በሚ፣ጥለው ዓመት ይ፣ጥላሉ ተብጪ

ይገመታል፡ 2. አዲስ ተማሪ ይመጣል ተብጪ አይገመትም /No New comer

/

3. ተማሪ ካÖረ ተመልሶ አይገባም /No Readmission/

4. አንድ ተማሪ እስከ 2 ግዜ ይደግማል ተብጪ ይገመታል፡፡

Page 21: Module  projections berhanu taye

የተማሪ ትወራ ሲሰራ

በአንድ ወቅት TVET የገቡ ተማሪዎች የ level ደረጃቸው ምን ያህል ተማሪ እንዳለ ማወቅ ያስፈልጋል

ለምሳሌ

2004…… 1000 ተማሪ level 1

2005…… ? ተማሪ level 2

2006…… ? ተማሪ level 3

2007……. ? ተማሪ level 4

Page 22: Module  projections berhanu taye

ትወራ

• ትወራን በሽግግር ሞዴል መስራት ይቻላል

• የሚያስፈልጉ መረጃዎች

በየዓመቱ level 1 የሚገቡ ተማሪዎች ብዛት /AIR/

በየዓመቱ በየክፍሉ የሚያቆር ተማሪዎች ብዛት በፐርሰንት /Drop

out Rate/

በየዓመቱ በየክፍሉ የሚደግሙ ተማሪዎች ብዛት በፐርሰንት

/Repetition Rate/

Page 23: Module  projections berhanu taye

ትወራ

አዲስ ገቢ ተማሪዎች + ደጋሚ ተማሪዎች= ተማሪዎች በክፍል

Page 24: Module  projections berhanu taye

በ2007 level 1 ተማሪ ብዛት /Enrollment

in level 1/

በ2007 level (1) =100 ተማሪ

level 1 ደጋሚ 2006

85 15

አዲስ ገቢ 2007

Page 25: Module  projections berhanu taye

በ2007 ከ level 1 ወደ level 2 ሽግግር /Transition

level 1 to level 2/

level 2 ?

ከ level 2

የተዛወሩ - 2006 የ level 2 ደጋሚዎች

2007

60

level 2

አቆራጭ

2007

2006 level 1

ደጋሚ

15

25

level 1

10

Page 26: Module  projections berhanu taye

የ level 2 ደጋሚዎች after taking COCAC

/Repeaters in level 2/

level 2- 58

ከ level 1 የተዛወሩ -

2006

የ level 2 ደጋሚዎች

2007

50 ?

level 1– 70

አቆራጭ

2006

2007 level 1

ደጋሚ

10

10

Page 27: Module  projections berhanu taye

ከ level 2 ወደ level 3 ሽግግር /Transition level 1

to level 2/

level 3 ?

ከ level 2 የተዛወሩ -

2006 የ level 3 ደጋሚዎች 6

2007

43 10

level 3

አቆራጭ

2006

2006 level 3

ደጋሚ

5

10

level 2

Page 28: Module  projections berhanu taye

የተማሪ ሽግግር ከ level 1

የሚሸጋገሩ ተማሪዎች ብዛት

ዓ.ም. level

1 2 3 4

2004 100

2005 ?

2006 58

2007 ?

Page 29: Module  projections berhanu taye

የአንድ ዓመት የተማሪ ትወራ /Projecting

Enrollment for One Year/

ዓ.ም. level

1 2 3 4 ድምር

2006 ? ? ? ? ?

2007

Page 30: Module  projections berhanu taye

ለዚህ የሚከተሉት መረጃዎች የስፈልጋሉ

1. ጥቅል ቅበላ መ ን /Apparent Intake Rate/

2. መ ነ አቆራጭ /Drop out Rate/

3. መ ነ ደጋሚ /Repeat ion Rate/

Page 31: Module  projections berhanu taye

የሽሽግግር ሞዴል ሁለት

Page 32: Module  projections berhanu taye

Student Flow Model

Indicators level 1 level 2 level 3

level 4

Total

Base Year (2006) 100 60 60 50 270/160

AI 90

DR 25% 10% 5% 3%

RR 15% 10% 5% 3%

PR ? ?

? ? ?

Target Year (2007) ? ? ? ? ?

Page 33: Module  projections berhanu taye

ግቦችን ማስ፣መጥ /Setting

Targets/

Page 34: Module  projections berhanu taye

በቅድሚያ /First Steps/

• ትወራው ለስንት ዓመት እንደሚሰራ መወሰን /Decide the number of years for which you want to plan/

• ለሶስቱ አመልካቾች ግብዓቶችን መወሰን /Establish

targets for the three indicators that determine student enrollment /

Page 35: Module  projections berhanu taye

–ጥቅል የተማሪ ቅበላ መ ን /Apparent Intake Rate/

–መ ነ አቆራጭ /Dropout Rate/

–መ ነ ደጋሚ /Repetition Rate/

• ለንጥር ቅበላ ምጣኔ ትኩረት መስ ት /Also look at Net Intake Rate/

Page 36: Module  projections berhanu taye

Apparent Intake Rate 2003-2007 N.B Target in 2008 is 105% and assuming the growth rate is constant

Year Age 7 AIR AI

Base Year

(2003)

20,000 70% 14,000

2004 20,600

2005 21,218

2006 21,855

2007 22,510

Target year

2008

23,185

Page 37: Module  projections berhanu taye

Thank You!