models and techniques of manpower demand and supply forecasting_kanchan pandey)

Models And Techniques Of

Manpower Demand And Supply ForecastingH.R.P.D(HRM-

306)Made By:- Kanchan Pandey

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INTRODUCTION

Human Resource Planning and development

Firstly we should know what is Manpower demand forecasting and what is Manpower supply forecasting.

Manpower demand forecasting :- Manpower Demand forecasting is the process of estimating the future quantity of manpower required.

Manpower supply forecasting :- Manpower supply forecasting measures the quantity of manpower that is likely to be available from within and outside the organization .

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Manpower demand forecasting

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.Factors affecting Manpower demand forecasting

The demand for human resources is influenced by several factors

Organizational decisions

Workforce factors

Organizational Decisions: Decisions such as expansion, diversification, and relocation leading to demand for people possessing requisite skillsWorkforce Factors: Such as retirement, resignation, and termination etc creating manpower gaps.

Models and techniques of manpower demand

forecasting

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Expert forecasts / Managerial judgmentEmployers Opinion Method Trend analysisWorkforce analysisWorkload analysis

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Models and techniques of manpower demand forecastingExpert Forecasts: These are based on the judgements of those who

possess good knowledge of future human resource needs.This is a good technique to use when,• experts are unbiased,• large changes are unlikely,• relationships are well understood by experts (e.g., demand goes up whenprices go down),• experts possess privileged information,• experts receive accurate and well-summarized feedback about their forecasts

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Employers Opinion Method

Under this method employers are asked to give their assessment of future manpower needs in different categories in their respective establishments. Aggregating over all employers and making allowance for death, retirement, migration and occupational mobility, it is then possible to arrive at future manpower demand by skill category. This method has been used in a number of developed countries like the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden and France. This method is used when we want highly skilled professionals.


forecasting

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2001-02 Production of Units : 5,000

2001-02 No. of Workers : 100

Ratio : 100:5000

2002-03 Estimated Production units : 8,000

No. of Workers required : 8000 × = 160

If supervisors have a span of 20 workers, 8 supervisors are also needed in 2002-03.

Trend Analysis: This is based on the assumption that the future is an extrapolation from the past. Human resource needs, as such, can be estimated by examining past trends.

An example of trend analysis

1005000


forecasting

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Workforce Analysis: In this technique all relevant factors in planning manpower flows in a firm such as transfers, promotions, new recruitments, retirement, resignation, etc are taken into account while estimating HR needs.

Manpower flows in a bank

Promotions outTransfers In > > Job Hopping

> Transfers Out

> Retirement

> VRS Scheme (Golden handshake)

Recruits In > > Discharge or Dism issal

> Term inations

> Resignations

Promotions In > > Retrenchment

> Attractions in Other Banks, etc.

Models and techniques of manpower demand forecasting

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Workload analysis: In this technique on the basis of planned output, a firm tires to calculate the number of persons required for various jobs. Using workload analysis one can establish workload of individual organization.

Planned output for the year 10,000 pieces

Standard hours per piece 3 hours

Planned hours required 30,000 hours (10,000x3)

Productive hours per person per year 1,000 hours (estimated on annual basis)

(allowing for absenteeism, turnover, idle time etc.)

No. of workers required 30 (30,000/1000)

Models and techniques of manpower demand forecasting

An example of workload analysis


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Human Resource Planning

Manpower Supply forecasting

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Factors affecting manpower supply forecasting

Current and future competition for labour from other employers.

Local unemployment levels.

Local housing , shopping and transport facilites.

The output from the local educational system and govt. or other training institutes.

Local unemployment level.

Demand for specific skills

The attractiveness of an industry in a particular place

Human Resource Planning and

development

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Models and techniques of manpower supply forecastingA) Internal supply forecasting (1)Wastage Analysis (2) Staffing table (3) Marcov analysis (4) Skills inventory (5) Replacement chart

B) External supply forecasting


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A) Internal labour supply: a manpower inventory in terms of the size and quality of personnel available (their age, sex, education, training, experience, job performance, etc) is usually prepared by HR departments. Several techniques are used while ascertaining the internal supply of manpower (a supply of employees to fill projected vacancies can come from within the firm or from new hires )

Models and techniques of manpower supply forecasting


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Estimated internal labour supply for a given firm

The FirmSources of In flow s

Trans fe rs

Promotions

New Recruits

Recalls

Promotions

Quits

Term inations

Retirements

Deaths

Layoffs

Employees In Employees Out

Currents ta ffinglevel

Projectedou tf low sthis year

Projectedin f low sthis year

Firm’s internalsupply for thistime next year

– + =

Projected Outflow s

Current S taffingLevel


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Wastage Analysis Manpower wastage is an element of labour turnover. Wastage is severance from the organization, which includes, voluntary retirement, normal retirement, resignations, deaths and dismissals. Marginal recruitment decisions, without wastage analysis may lead to inaccuracies in HRP.

InductionCrisis

Differential

Transit

Settled Connection

Weeks Time Months/Years

Lev

ers


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Different methods of Wastage Analysis(1) Labour Turnover IndexThis index indicates the number of levers as percentage to average number of employees. Average number of employees employed in a given time period is decided by adding the employees at the beginning and end and then dividing the same by two.ExampleAt the beginning of a year, a firm has 250 employees, while at the end it has 230. Assume no recruitment has been made in between. Compute the labour turnover index.(2) Stability IndexThis index indicates stable workforce percentage for a given period and can be computed as under:

Numberwithmorethan yearservicenow

TotalEmployedoneyearago

1100


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(i)Staffing table:.are the pictorial representations of all organizational jobs, along with the numbers of employees currently occupying those jobs and future employment requirements. Staffing table shows the number of employees in each job, how they are utilized and the future employment needs for each type of job(ii) Marcov analysis: Uses historical information from personnel movements of the internal labour supply to predict what will happen in the future and it shows the percentage (and actual number) of employees who remain in each job from one year to the next, thus keeping track of the pattern of employee movements through various jobs.



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Marcov analysis for a hypothetical retail company

Figures in circles show the transition percentages

80%

12

20%

3

6%

2

11%

4

83%

30

11%

11

66%

63

8%

8

10%

29

72%

207

2%

6

16%

46

6%

86

74%

1066

20%

288

15%

14

2003-2004 S to re Ass t . S to re S ection D ep t. S a les ExitM a n a g e rs M a n ag e r s H eads H e ds Executives

Store Managers(n = 15)

Asst. S toreManagers(n = 36)

SectionHeads(n = 94)

DepartmentalHeads(n = 288)

SalesExecutives(n = 1440)

Forecas tedSupply 16 41 92 301 1072 353


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Skills inventory: It is a summary of the skills and abilities of employees used

in forecasting supply.

For assessing effectively internal manpower supply, it is important for an organization to maintain skills inventory containing various information about individuals and their suitability for different jobs. A typical skills inventories include the name of the employee and a listing (or “inventory”) of job‑related skills, training.



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Skills inventory: an example Name : A.K . Sen Date printed : 1-4-2004

Number : 429 D epartm ent : 41

K ey w o rds W ork ex pe rienc e

W ord D escr ip tion Activ ity F ro m To

Accounting Tax Supervision 1998 2000 Tax clerk ABC Company

and analysis

Book Keeping Ledger Supervision 2000 2002 Accoun tan t XYZ Co.

Auditing Computer Analys is 2002 2003 C hief Accounts TT Bank

reco rds O ff ice r

Education Special Qualifications M e m b e r s h ip s

Degree Major Yea r Course Date 1. AIMA

MBA Finance 1998 DBF 1996 2. ISTD

B.Com A ccoun ts 1995 Risk Management 1999 3. ICA

C o m p u te r La ng uag es P os it ion Loca t ion H obb ies

L ite racy p r e fe r e n c e cho ice

Tally French Accounting Kolkata Chess

Banking Auditing Delhi Football

Software Bangalore Boating

Employees Signature __________ HR Department________

Date _______________________ Date ________________


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Replacement chart: It is a visual representation of who will replace whom

in the event of a job opening. Basically replacement chart helps us to get

the profile of job holders, department-wise and reveals those who could be

used as replacements whenever the need arises.



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Replacement chartGeneral Manager

V. K. GargA /2

Key

Names given are replacementcandidatesA. Promotable nowB. Needing developmentC. Not suitable to position1. Superior performance2. Above Average performance3. Acceptable performance4. Poor performance

P A toGeneral Manager

L. MathewsB/1

Assistant General Manager R.K. Arora A/2 B.K. Nehru B/3

Division:HR Manager

C.P. Thakur A/1

Division:Accounting &

Taxation Manager A.T. Roy C/2

Division:Planning Manager

A .N. Gupta A/1 K .P. Rao B/1

Technical Advisor N.R. Murthy B /3

Northern RegionManager

L.C. S rivatsav A/2A. Thapar C/4

C entral RegionManager

S.P. Kumar A/1 R. Pandey B/3

Southern Region Manager A. Subramanyam B/2 B.K. Menon B/1

Eastern RegionManager

R. Krishna B/3


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B) External supply forecasting : External hires need to be contacted when

suitable internal replacements are not available. It is used only when the

cost of procuring the labour from internal sources is more and also the

present staff cannot be spared for the future assignment, the company can

refer to the external market A growing number of firms are now using

computerized human resource information systems to track the

qualifications of hundreds or thousands of employees. HRIS can provide

managers with a listing of candidates with required qualifications after

scanning the data base.



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Bibliography

A.K Singh.

www.wikipedia.com

www.sap-si.com

www.indianmba.com

www.shvoong.com

http://www.wikipedia.com/

http://www.sap-si.com/

http://www.indianmba.com/

http://www.shvoong.com/

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Thank you

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models and techniques of manpower demand and supply forecasting_kanchan pandey)

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