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Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Evaluating Ozone Predictions from Photochemical Models Using NE-OPS 1999
ObservationsQing Sun, Anatharaman Chandrasekar, Panos G.
GeorgopoulosEnvironmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute, a joint
project of UMDNJ — R. W. Johnson Medical School and Rutgers University
170 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, New Jersey 08854
C. Russell PhilbrickPenn State University, Department of Electrical Engineering and
Applied Research Laboratory, University Park, Pennsylvania
Bruce DoddridgeUniversity of Maryland, Department of Meteorology, College Park,
Maryland
One Atmosphere, One Community, One Modeling System: Models-3 Users’ Workshop
October 27-29, 2003Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Outline
• Summary of the NE-OPS 1999 study
• Applications of and evaluation of CMAQ and CAMx
• Discussions and future work
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Summary of the NE-OPS Study
• North East - Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS), sponsored by EPA
• Objectives:– Determine conditions leading to high O3 and PM– Local vs distant sources– Roles of meteorological properties
• Participants: Penn State, Millersville, Harvard SPH, Univ Maryland, SUNY at Albany, Rutgers, Brookhaven Nat Lab, PNNL, etc
• Location: centered at the Baxter water treatment plant in north Philadelphia
• Time span: 1999 – 2001 (this study uses data from July 11-25, 1999)
• Included both meteorological and air quality measurements• Measurements approaches: instrumented airplanes; Radar wind
profiler/RASS sounder; Lidar atmospheric profile sensor; tethered balloons; ozonesondes, rawinsondes, and ground based measurements of PM compositions.
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Nested Modeling Domain
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Monitor Stations and NE-OPS Flight Tracks
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Problem specifications
• Modeling period: 7/11/1999 to 7/25/1999• Three levels of nested grids (36km, 12km and
4km)• Grid dimensions: 72×60, 69×54 and 63×72• 14 Layers for CMAQ, 8 for CAMx• Meteorology prepared with MM5• Emissions prepared from USEPA’s 1998 NET
inventory, using SMOKE
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
NOx and VOC Emissions
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Model Configuration
CMAQ CAMx
Advection Bott scheme Smolarkiewicz scheme
Turbulence K-theory based eddy formulation
K-theory based eddy formulation
Chemistry RADM2 or CB4 CB4 mechanism with updated isoprene chemistry
Number of gas-phase chemical species
59 (RADM2); 36 (CB4)
25
Number of chemical reactions
157 (RADM2); 93 (CB4)
96
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Run Time Comparison
CMAQ CAMx
Nesting 1-way nesting 2-way nesting
Type of machine used
Sun Fire 280R with dual 750 Hz UltraSPARC-III CPU and 4GB memory
Linux PC with single AMD Athlon XP 1800 and 1GB memory
Run Time 3-4 hours per model day for each grid
About 0.5 hour per model day for the 3-level nested grid
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Daily maxima of ground level ozone for 7/18/1999
CMAQ
CAMx
AirNow
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Daily maxima of ground level ozone for 7/19/1999
CMAQ
CAMx
AirNow
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Daily maxima of ground level ozone for 7/20/1999
CMAQ
CAMx
AirNow
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Space-time paired comparisons of ground level ozone with observation
CMAQ CAMx
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Quantile-quantile comparisons of ground level ozone with observation
CMAQ CAMx
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Model-to-model comparison
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Ozone Time Series Comparison between Model Predictions and Observations at Middlesex, NJ
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Ozone Time Series Comparison between Model Predictions and Observations at Philadelphia
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Selected NEOPS Flights
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Comparison with flight measurements (I)
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Comparison with flight measurements (II)
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Conclusions
• The two models, CMAQ and CAMx, predicted similar general patterns of pollutant spatial and temporal distributions
• There is considerable discrepancy of predictions by the two models for surface ozone:– CAMx significantly over-predicting ozone peaks
for certain days during the high ozone hours– CAMx predicts close-to-zero ozone during the
nights, probably reflecting the failure of the model to sufficiently account for the effects of an upper layer ozone reservoir accumulated during the daytime hours for the high ozone days
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
On-going and future work
• Parallel processing on Linux cluster• Emissions from 1999 and projected 2001(?)
NEI• Seasonal or annual runs of CMAQ and CAMx • Linking the annual air quality applications with
MENTOR/SHEDS for exposure/dose analyses
MENTOR – Modeling Environment for Total Risk
SHEDS – Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation
Computational Chemodynamics LaboratoryEOHSI - Exposure Measurement & Assessment Division
Models-3 Users’ Workshop 2003Research Triangle Park, NC
Acknowledgements
• State of New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) funded Ozone Research Center (ORC)
• U.S. EPA Center for Exposure and Risk Modeling (CERM) (EPAR-827033)
• U.S. EPA funded NorthEast Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS) (EPA-TPSU-UMDNJ-826373-14)