modelling the impact of being obese on hospital costs
TRANSCRIPT
www.buseco.monash.edu.au/centres/che
Centre for Health Economics
Modelling the impact of being obese on hospital costs
Katharina Hauck
Bruce Hollingsworth
A project funded by the NHMRC (grant number 334114) and the ARC (grant number DP0772235)
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www.buseco.monash.edu.au/centres/che
Centre for Health Economics
Background
• Cost of obesity (and related co-morbidities) to the health care
system are a concern
• Studies may underestimate the economic cost of obesity
• Obesity directly causes illnesses which are costly to treat
• Obesity may also influence the progression or severity of other
illnesses, including ones which are not directly caused by obesity
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Research Question and Approach
• Is it more costly to treat obese patients, once they are in hospital?
• Difference in cost irrespective of type of illness and procedure?
• Analyse impact on length of stay (LOS) of inpatients
• LOS is major determinant of hospital costs
• Generate different estimates over the whole distribution of LOS
(from one night to very long)
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Centre for Health Economics
Data
• Australian administrative public hospital data ‘Victorian Admitted
Episodes Data’ (VAED) for 2005/06
• Analysis on patient level
• Patient defined as obese if one of 2nd to 12th diagnosis code falls
within the range of ICD codes "E660“ to "E669“
• Our sample: financial year 2005/06 with 461,563 inpatients, of
which 6,086 (1%) are obese
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Model
• LOS = f (obese, age, gender, nonelective, private payer, index of
social advantage, cost weight, number of diagnoses and
procedures, total separations of hospital, type and location of
hospital)
• Coefficient on dummy variable ‘obese’ is estimate of impact of
obesity (+ more costly, - less costly)
• Analysis for selected hospital specialties, and for medical and
surgical admissions
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Centre for Health Economics
Problem: Outliers
• Problem: upper and lower outliers with respect to LOS
• In VAED: 3.4% of Patients stay very long and 1.3% very short,
conditional on observable characteristics
• Outlier status established with OLS regression of LOS on
explanatory factors
• Observations are
– Lower outliers if resOLS < Q(25) - 3*Inter Quartile Range
– Upper outliers if resOLS > Q(75) + 3*Inter Quartile Range
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Estimation: Quantile Regression
• Problem: Large proportion of outliers violates assumptions of
normality of Ordinary Least Squares Regression
• Solution: Quantile regressions on 19 quantiles of LOS
• Quantiles of the conditional distribution of LOS are expressed
as functions of observed covariates
• Quantiles range from 0.05 (very short LOS) to 0.95 (very long
LOS), including the median 0.5
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Centre for Health Economics
Estimation: Quantile Regression
• Quantile regression minimizes a sum of absolute residuals
• Residuals are weighed asymmetrically (for all quantiles except
the median)
– According to quantile, differing weights are given to positive and
negative residuals
• Outliers do not bias estimates at other quantiles
• Quantile regressions allow for differing impact of being ‘obese’ at
various points of the distribution of LOS
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Centre for Health Economics
Summary statistics
Non-obese Obese
MeanStandard Deviation
MeanStandard Deviation
Length of stay 2.55 10.40 6.07 11.11
Cost weight 0.72 1.61 1.66 2.64
Age 53.61 23.38 58.58 15.36
Number of diagnoses 4.52 3.12 7.752 2.99
Number of procedures 2.40 2.49 3.01 2.77
Non-elective admissions 56.88 % 65.02 %
Medical admissions 68.45 % 66.15 %
Admissions to major teaching hospital 71.56 % 73.42 %
Admissions to city or big rural hospital 13.59 % 13.83 %
Privately paying patients 8.13 % 6.58 %
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Centre for Health Economics
Results – Hospital Specialties
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Centre for Health Economics
Results – Hospital Specialties
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Centre for Health Economics
Results - Hospital Specialties
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Centre for Health Economics
Results - Hospital Specialties
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Centre for Health Economics
Results - Hospital Specialties
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Centre for Health Economics
Results - Hospital Specialties
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Centre for Health Economics
Results - Hospital Specialties
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Centre for Health Economics
Results - Hospital Specialties
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Centre for Health Economics
Results – Episode type
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Centre for Health Economics
Results – Episode type
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Centre for Health Economics
Why have obese different LOS?
• Why do obese stay longer in some specialties, but shorter in
others?
• Possible answers:
– Obese stay longer when they are treated as a medical case because
they are more complex?
– Obese stay shorter when they are treated as a surgical case because
they are much more complex, and are transferred to another hospital
(risk/cost shifting), or even die?
Any ideas?
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Centre for Health Economics
Why have obese different LOS?
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Centre for Health Economics
Future Research
• Investigate reasons for cost differences
• Analyse reasons for different patterns across specialties
• Use data on:
- Transfers to other hospitals
- Readmissions (to the same, and different hospitals)
- Complications and adverse events
- Mortality rates (in-hospital, and 30 day after stay)
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Centre for Health Economics
Probit estimations
• Difference in probability of being transferred to another hospital
when obese, conditional on other explanatory factors
– Negative effect (?!) of ‘obese’ for Haematology, Respiratory and
Endocrinology, insignificant for all other specialties
• Difference in probability of dying when obese, conditional on other
explanatory factors
– Negative effect (?!) of ‘obese’ for the whole sample, and a range of
specialities including Orthopaedics, Cardiology,
General Medicine, and General Surgery.