W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L

Modeling Working Group Progress Report to TAS

TEPPC Quarterly Meeting November 2-5, 2015

Tom Miller- MWG Chair

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Discussion Topics

• MWG Work Plan Development• Update on Modeling Enhancements for 2026

Common Case• Draft- MWG Work Plan – Software-Change Tracking

• Next Steps for MWG Work Plan• Gridview Modeling Developments– CAISO Modeling Enhancements

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MWG Work Plan Development• Better inform WECC Staff and TAS-SG• Description: high level description of the

enhancement– Status: is the enhancement available now, and if not what

is the expected availability– GridView Version: What version will have the capability of

the enhancements? Will these versions be available to WECC?

– Implementation Work Plan: how much ABB support to WECC staff is needed to test, validate and calibrate the enhancements plus timeline. Data requirements.

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ABB Gridview Enhancements ABB Gridview Updates & New Enhancements

Current Status and Implementation Effort

Recommendation for 1st

Release 2026 CC

Multi-Day Look-ahead Logic: robust unit commitments and scheduling of energy storage

Under testing now. May require more time and energy to tune parameters to get the best results

Postpone implementation until after first release of the 2026 Common Case v1.0

FERC 789 Reserves: updates contingency reserve modelling to current requirements

FERC 789 Operating Reserve ready now. Easy to implement once BA’s and regional pools defined.

Yes, implement for V1.0 2026

Demand Response Modeling (LBNL): LBNL method to calculate DR for load trigger programs and pricing trigger programs.

LBNL has complete pre-testing and now available to WECC in Gridview. LBNL will consult. Moderate effort.

Yes, implement for V1.0 2026

Contingency Protocol: critical to align what constraints have merit over others and much better understanding of study results

Low effort implement. MWG to develop priorities and “proxy” costs. Validation runs recommended

Yes, implement for V1.0 2026

Intertie Ramping: Constrains volatile ramps across major Ca interfaces

Available in GridView version. Draft 2010 data ramp limits available.

Defer to Q2. Moderate effort to implement. Need MWG Recommendation/TAS approval?

Gridview Version Updates Need to aggregate enhancements Seek WECC Budget support

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MWG 2015-2016 Work Plan DraftItem Timeline Modeling Enhancement

1 Q-3 2015 (1) Investigate Expected GridView Capability; (2) Prioritize Modeling; (3) MWG/WECC Staff Work Plan

2 Q-4 2015 Develop modeling enhancement test cases. Modeling Enhancement implementation on 2026 CC.

3 Q-1 2016 2026 Common Case first releases: (1) FERC 789 Reserves; (2) System Constraints (3) Demand Response; (4) CHP Enhancements; (5) Min-Gen Requirement Update; (6) Initial Validation/Calibration

5 Q-2 2016 Batch-2 Enhancements (test, validate/calibrate) Validation/Calibration (deeper dive)

5 Q-3 2016 Batch-3 Enhancements (test, validate/calibrate) (1) Hydro Reserves; (2) Intertie Ramp Limits (3) Multi-day look-ahead logic (4) Resource Modeling

6 Q-4 2016 Batch-4 Enhancements (test, validate/calibrate) Hydro PLF Load net-solar/wind; (2) GHG Linear Programing

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Software-Change Tracking

• Commensurate with tracking done for data-set• For Modeling Enhancement:– Description– Benefits and Key Questions– Priority– Development status (early, testing, validation,

implementation)– Effort and timeline

• Update in Version Release Notes• Modeling enhancement “Wish List” useful to inform

WECC budget

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Next Steps for MWG Work Plan

• Feedback from WECC on MWG proposed Work Plan – Feasibility check and/or recommended changes– Commitment to MWG Work Plan

• Modeling Working Group: Work Plan Review• TAS-SG: Coordination with DWG and SWG?

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ABB Modeling Developments

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ABB Gridview Users Group Round Trip: very good progress

Look ahead Logic: currently under testing by CAISO, favorable initial response; areas identified some room for improvement

Convert Nodal model to Zonal model – Transportation model with 1 click

Dynamic Hydro Scheduling: 14 intervals (august split in two); schedule inflow/outflow; uses HTC/PLF

Sub-Hourly Capability: simulation for real-time market simulation – sequential market simulation with day-ahead market simulation useful for EIM. Opportunity for WECC: ABB offering to develop capability free for

WECC to support sub-hourly studies. Need sub-hourly data (NREL wind/solar/Loads etc.)

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Operating Reserves for Flexibility

• NREL Method and PNNL Method– NREL method to calculated flexible reserve

requirements for renewables – PNNL method to calculate regulation up/down and load

following up/down reserve for renewables and loadsCAISO implementing PNNL Method into Gridview– Gridview Co-optimization of Energy Market and

Ancillary Service (AS) Markets • Question: should TEPPC shift from NREL Method to

PNNL Method

Expanding Footprint of Centralized DispatchGeography

Wheeling model:• Closed-loop BA export wheeling (to

simplify BA modeling)• Wheeling discount for zone groups (to

approximate EIM in an hourly model)• Contract paths with wheeling

exemption (to avoid multiple charges)

California AB32 GHG emission model:• LP model with resource-specific

emission penalty (to replace emission hurdle model)

• Commitment and dispatch visibility to external systems (to depict non-EIM members)

EIM footprintPotential EIM entityNon-EIM entity, POUTrading hub

PSEI(2016)

PGE(2017)

PACW

AVA

LDWP PaloVerde

Mead

LDWP

NWMT

LDWP

CFE

IID

CISO

Malin

PACW(2014)

PACE(2014)

PSCO

PNM

NVE(2015)

BCHA

WACM

BANC

BPA+

AZPS(2016)

SRP

TEPC

WALC

EPE

AESO

IPCO

WAUW

TIDC

BPA+ = BPA + CHPD + DOPD + GCPD + SCL + TPWR

Source: CAISO

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Questions or Comments

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L

Reference Slides

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Enhancement Implementation

• Identify Modeling Need• Develop Modeling• Perform Test Case- proof of concept • Recommendations/Approvals• Investigate Regional Variations• Translate Expected Assumptions• Calibration/Validation

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FERC 789 Reserve Modeling • Objective: represent new FERC 789 operating

requirements• ABB has developed and has implemented new reserve

requirements in their models• New FERC 789 Operating Reserve Requirements:– 3% Load- calculated from static loads – 3% Generation- LP adjusted for hour to hour dispatch– 50% Spin/ 50% Non-Spin– BA and/or Reserve Pool

• Modeling Capability has been developed and will be available to WECC

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Demand Response Program Modeling

• Objective: improve demand response modeling and process efficiency

• ABB working with Andy Satchwell LBL• Demand Response Program Modeling– Price or load trigger Programs

• Price an load triggers• Time increments of 2-4-8 hour blocks by month• Max DR MW by month

– Output:- hourly DR schedule by area • Modeling capability available to WECC and ready for

testing in TEPPC dataset