Modeling & Forecasting Breakout Group

Input to SECOORA Business Plan

(Jacksonville, July 27-28, 2005)

Modeling & Forecasting: Current

What we have:- global models: NCOM, HYCOM- “mature” wave model software for nearshore- quasi-operational models for most estuaries- developing coral habitat maps

Validation needs- NCOM & HYCOM in SECOORA region- Standardized validation methods

Data needs- More observations to “drive” models

Computational resources- Scattered between groups; uncoordinated

Lambda rail

Modeling & Forecasting: 1 year

Computational Facilities- centralized vs distributed- plan for future needs

Virtual Operations Center- design the infrastructure- determine data needs- begin region-wide ensembles

Biological/fish models- assess data needs- plan model development

Modeling & Forecasting: 2-5 year

Computational Facilities- build shared facilities- expand national coastal ocean modeling grid

Virtual Operations Center- implement from seaward edge of EEZ to estuaries/lagoons/rivers- components: storm surge, tides, waves, circulation, ecosystems- error tracking

Biological models- address: recruitment, larval transport, etc.- fish stock assessment

Modeling & ForecastingAction Items

• Develop communication mechanism– Web-based clearinghouse– SECOORA news web-resources… volunteers?

• Develop Strategic Plan for Modeling & Forecasting – Plan transitions to operations– Coordination between groups– Define test beds

• Investigate System Engineering Approach• Establish a Virtual Operations Center

Modeling & ForecastingAction Items

• Develop PRIORITIZED list of user needs– What can we do now?– What are criteria for prioritization

• Engage the National Backbone– Through NFRA, Ocean.US

• Get Academic Results into Fed Agencies?– Start with NWS & waves– Demonstrate academic capabilities– Engage in Federal planning/funding processes