modeling china’s energy future a coordinated analysis between tsinghua global climate change...

Modeling China’s Energy FutureModeling China’s Energy Future

A coordinated analysis between A coordinated analysis between Tsinghua Global Climate Change Institute Tsinghua Global Climate Change Institute

Princeton Environmental Institute andPrinceton Environmental Institute and

Clean Energy CommercializationClean Energy Commercialization

Dr.Pat DeLaquilDr.Pat DeLaquilPresented to the Tsinghua University Presented to the Tsinghua University

BP-CEC MARKAL WorkshopBP-CEC MARKAL WorkshopApril 14, 2006April 14, 2006

2

CCICED Addressed Four Key Questions: How can China

• Meet its projected demand for energy services? (Quadruple GDP by 2020)

• Meet projected liquid fuel needs, especially for transportation, while not becoming over-dependent on imported energy?

• Reduce urban and rural air pollution while meeting its projected demands for energy services?

• Meet requirements for lower carbon emissions that may be implemented due to global warming concerns?

3

China MARKAL Model StructureResources Conversion

Technologies

Wind

Uranium

Solar

Natural Gas

Hydro

Geothermal

Coal

Biomass

Oil

Coal Bed Methane

Electricity

Hydrogen

RefinedLiquids

Coal

Bio-Gas

SynthesisGas

Nat. Gas& CBM

Final Energy Carriers

Heat

Demand SectorsEnd-UseTechnologies

AgriculturalElectric MotorsAgro-ProcessingIrrigationFarming Machines

CommercialAir conditioningLightingSpace heating

Rural residentialCooking & Water heatingLighting & AppliancesSpace heating

Urban residentialAir conditioningCooking & Water heatingLighting & AppliancesSpace heating

IndustrialAmmoniaAluminumCementPaperSteelOther

TransportationAirShipPipelineRail Automobile / BusTruck

4 Agricultural processes

12 Passenger transport

8 Freight transport

16 Industrial processes

2 Industrial electricity & non-fuel

4 Industrial heat processes

6 Commercial space heat

6 Commercial air conditioning

2 Urban air conditioning

5 Urban cooking & water heat

6 Rural cooking & water heat

7 Urban space heat

3 Lighting & Appliances

7 Rural space heat

2 Hydro Power

1 Nuclear Power

2 Wind Power

6 IGCC power/CHP

21 Combustion/CHP

9 Poly-Generation

10 Synthetic Fuels

1 Ethanol Production

1 Oil Refining

1 Coal Wash & 1 Coke

2 Solar Power

5 Gasifier/Digester

1 Geothermal Power

4 Hydrogen Production

2 Fuel Cell Power/CHP

2 Heat Plants

Resources ConversionTechnologies

Wind

Uranium

Solar

Natural Gas

Hydro

Geothermal

Coal

Biomass

Oil

Coal Bed Methane

Electricity

Hydrogen

RefinedLiquids

Coal

Bio-Gas

SynthesisGas

Nat. Gas& CBM

Final Energy Carriers

Heat

Demand SectorsEnd-UseTechnologies

AgriculturalElectric MotorsAgro-ProcessingIrrigationFarming Machines

CommercialAir conditioningLightingSpace heating

Rural residentialCooking & Water heatingLighting & AppliancesSpace heating

Urban residentialAir conditioningCooking & Water heatingLighting & AppliancesSpace heating

IndustrialAmmoniaAluminumCementPaperSteelOther

TransportationAirShipPipelineRail Automobile / BusTruck

4 Agricultural processes

12 Passenger transport

8 Freight transport

16 Industrial processes

2 Industrial electricity & non-fuel

4 Industrial heat processes

6 Commercial space heat

6 Commercial air conditioning

2 Urban air conditioning

5 Urban cooking & water heat

6 Rural cooking & water heat

7 Urban space heat

3 Lighting & Appliances

7 Rural space heat

2 Hydro Power

1 Nuclear Power

2 Wind Power

6 IGCC power/CHP

21 Combustion/CHP

9 Poly-Generation

10 Synthetic Fuels

1 Ethanol Production

1 Oil Refining

1 Coal Wash & 1 Coke

2 Solar Power

5 Gasifier/Digester

1 Geothermal Power

4 Hydrogen Production

2 Fuel Cell Power/CHP

2 Heat Plants

4

Methodology for Projecting Energy Service Demands

• Future energy demands projections were based on comparisons with historical data for various OECD countries at similar levels of GDP per capita

• Key assumption was that by 2050 China as a whole will have developed to the levels of energy services that are characterized key OECD countries in the mid-1990s

• Cross-country comparisons were selected to minimize the differences in economic structure, demographics, geography, culture, development path, etc.

• The methodology ties the projection of energy service demands to the level of economic development toward which China aspires in the future

5

Projections for Primary Fossil Energy Demand in China

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

1990 1995 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pri

mar

y F

oss

il E

ner

gy

Use

(E

xajo

ule

s)

Actual Use

This Study Baseline

Issues and Options (WB/Jt Study Group, 1994) China

Country Study(USDOE/SSTC/Tsinghua, 1999)

Energy Development Strategy(ERI, 1999)

International Energy Outlook(EIA, 2000, 2001)

China Carbon Scenarios(LBNL Projection, 2001)

National Response Strategy(E-W Ctr/ANL/Tsinghua, 1994)

This Study High Transport

This Study Low Efficiency

6

Potential Domestic Fossil Fuel Supplies

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Pet

ajo

ule

s

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

CBM

CBM w/CO2 stimulation

Cumulative 1995-2050

1995 Proved reserves

1995 Estimated reserves

Coal (billion t) 138 118 1000

Oil (billion t) 9.3 10 102

Natural gas (trillion m3) 6.4 1.4 47 to 62

CBM (trillion m3) 2.3 -- 30 to 35

CBM w/CO2 injection (trillion m3) 2.5 -- 30?

7

Environmental and Energy- Security Constraints

Sulfur Emissions Constraint• SO2 emission level for 2020 is

government target of 16.5 Mt• 2050 constraint of 10.4 Mt brings

China to same level of SO2 emission per GJ of coal consumption as US in 2000

Sulfur Dioxide Emission Constraint

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mil

lio

n T

on

s S

O2

Energy Security Constraints

• Imported oil and natural gas constrained to be 30% to 50% of total oil and gas fuel consumption in any given year.

Carbon Emissions ConstraintsWRE emissions scenario

Cumulative CO2,

1990-2100 (Gt C)

China’s allowable C emissions,

1995-2050

(Gt C)

Stable CO2

(ppmv)

Global China’s “allowance

”

High 750 1400 301 89

Medium 550 1100 237 80

Low 450 750 161 66

Very low 350 380 82 46

8

Two Technology Scenarios

BASE TECHNOLOGIES

• Coal used primarily by existing or advanced direct combustion technologies

• Energy end-use technologies include current best energy-efficiency options

• Renewable energy technology limited to those currently commercial

• Carbon sequestration options are not available

• Available starting in 1995 or 2000

ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES• Advanced poly-generation

technologies based on gasification of coal and biomass

• Advanced high-efficiency industrial processes

• Advanced renewable energy technologies

• Urban residential demand technologies

• Hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehicles

• Carbon capture and sequestration options

• Available starting between 2005 and 2015

9

Technology Characteristics Advanced Techs were phased in over 3, 5-year periods at 1.5, 1.25 and 1.1 times their mature plant cost

Efficiency

(% LHV)

Capital Cost

($/kW)

Fixed O&M

($/kW-yr)

Variable O&M

($/kWh)SO2

(gr/kWh)

BASE Technologies

Coal, steam plant with FGD (500 MW) 36.4 1,090 16.1 0.0020 0.46

Natural gas, gas turbine combined cycle 58.1 600 16.1 0.0015 0

Nuclear 33.0 2,000 40.0 0.0086 0

Wind, large-scale with long-dist. transmission - 580 5.0 0.0020 0

ADVANCED Technologies

Coal, integrated gasification/combined cycle 43.0 1,068 21.4 0.0024 0.075

Coal, gasification-based, with CO2 capture 36.8 1,383 27.7 0.0031 0

Natural gas, combined cycle with CO2 capture 50.8 1,008 18.1 0.0026 0

H2, distributed fuel cell combined heat/power 41.0 250 10.0 0 0

Biomass, electricity and DME co-production 16.3 2,141 44.8 0.0064 0

10

Domestic and Imported Oil Use

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

BASE CASE Revised Transport DemandProjection

AdvTech with All Caps

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Imported

Domestic

Base Technologies Advanced TechnologiesSO2, 30% Oil&Gas, 66 Gt C Caps

Base case oil imports are 435 Mt/yr in 2050 while AdvTech oil imports peak at about 75 Mt/yr in 2025. Transport drives Base case oil demand. Natural gas imports are reduced from 120 bcm (Base) to 70 bcm (AdvTech).

11

Gas & Syn. Fuel by Type

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

BASE CASE Revised Transport Demand Projection AdvTech with All Caps and Coal Imports

Pet

ajo

ule

s

N. gas

Methanol

Hydrogen

CBM

Coal gas

Coal Liquids

DME

F-T Liquids

Ethanol


AdvTech scenario employs a variety of synthetic fuels: coal gas for urban heating and cooking; methanol, F-T liquids and later hydrogen for transportation; DME from biomass for rural heating & cooking

12

Electricity Production by Fuel/Technology

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050


TW

h

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Biomass

Hydropower

H2 Fuel Cell

NG Fuel Cell

NG Combustion

Nuclear

Oil

Coal Gasif. w CO2 Seq.

Coal Gasification

Coal Combustion


In AdvTech scenario, coal combustion is replaced by coal gasification and CO2 sequestration. Biomass and wind power plants make significant contributions. CO2 used for enhanced resource recovery of CBM.

13

Total Primary Energy Supply

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050


Ex

ajo

ule

s

EFFICIENCY

RENEWABLES

NUCLEAR

CBM

NGAS

OIL

COALGasification

COALCombustion


AdvTech scenario uses renewable energy in 2005-2020 period, which slows coal use. Coal gasification technologies start in 2005 but grow rapidly after 2020 when plant costs mature.

14

Carbon Emissions

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

BASE CASE Revised Transport DemandProjection

AdvTech with All Caps and Coal Imports

Mil

lio

n t

on

ne

s c

arb

on

Total

Coml & Res

Electric

Industry

Transport

CarbonSequestered


AdvTech: CO2 emissions from electricity generation are reduced by renewables, CO2 sequestration and by fuel-switching in the industrial, commercial and residential sectors.

15

AdvTech cases can achieve SO2, Oil30 and CO2 targets for lower cost than only achieving SO2 targets with the Base technologies.

System Cost Impact

-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

BASE

BASE-SO2

ADVTECH

ADVTECH-SO2

ADVTECH-SO2-OIL3O

ADVTECH-SO2-OIL3O-C66

Percent Change from BASE

16

Conclusions• AdvTech strategy offers the opportunity to achieve China’s

sustainable development goals at lower cost than a “business-as-usual” approach

• AdvTech strategy also provides a lower-cost path to deep reductions in CO2 emissions

• To realize the 3E’s: Economic Development, Energy Security and Environmental Protection Coal use must shift from combustion to gasification based

technologies, which enables the production of clean synthetic liquid and gas fuels and significantly reduces the cost of CO2 capture and sequestration

Gas and liquid fuels from coal and biomass need to play increasingly important roles in the energy economy

Energy efficiency and Renewable energy need to take on significant roles

Modest contributions from nuclear power can help achieve goals, but nuclear power is not essential if energy efficiency is stressed

17

Recent Developments in China

• Target 15% of energy consumption from renewable energies by 2020

• Commit US$185 billion investment

• Implementation of Renewable Energy Law

• Provide tax incentives for local manufacturing

• Bio-fuels Corn ethanol Bio-diesel

• Coal gasification-polygeneration Shandong – Fischer Tropsche liquids Ningsha – Dimethyl ether (DME)

18

References• “Transforming Coal for Sustainability: A Strategy for China”,

Report by the Task Force on Energy Strategies and Technologies to the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development, 1 September 2003

• Pat DeLaquil, Chen Wenying and Eric Larson “Modeling China’s Energy Future”, Proceedings of the Workshop on Coal Gasification for Clean and Secure Energy for China, 25-26 August 2003, Tsinghua University, Beijing (available from CCICED Secretariat)

• Eric Larson, “Synthetic Fuel Production from Indirect Coal Liquefaction” ibid.

• Zhou Dadi “Energy Policy in China in Coming 20 years”, ibid.

• Thomas B. Johansson, “Energy for Sustainability: a Broad Strategy for China” ibid.

• Robert H. Williams and Eric Larson “A Compsrison of Direct and Indirect Liquefaction Technologies for Making Fluid Fuels from Coal” ibid.

modeling china’s energy future a coordinated analysis between tsinghua global climate change...

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