modeled spatial and temporal distribution of euphausia pacifica in the california current from a...
TRANSCRIPT
Modeled spatial and temporal distribution of Euphausia pacifica in the California
Current from a coupled ocean circulation
model and individual-based model
Jeffrey G. Dorman1, Thomas Powell1, William Sydeman2, Steven Bograd3, Jarrod Santora2
1University of California, Berkeley - Berkeley, CA
2Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research - Petaluma, CA
3NOAA-NMFS, Environmental Research Division - Pacific Grove, CA
Roadmap
• Introduction to 2005 in the California Current
• Individual Based Model (POPCYCLE)
• ROMS Model for Central/Northern California
• 2001 vs 2005 Comparison of:– Spatial Distribution of Euphausia pacifica– Population Growth of Euphausia pacifica
(Field JC et al., Prog Ocean, 2006 68:238-270)
Euphausia pacifica in the California Current
(Durant JM et al., Clim Res, 2007 33:271-283)
Average Date of Spring
Transition
April 4th
Year 2005 Spring
Transition
May 24th
(Kosro PM et al., Geophys Res Letters, 2006 33:L22S03; doi:10.1029/2006GL027072)
2005 in the California Current:Delayed Upwelling
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mean productivity = 0.67Cassin’s Auklet
Delayed Upwelling:Increased Trophic Mismatch
Chi
nook
Sal
mon
Jac
k E
scap
emen
t (S
acra
men
to R
iver
)
Delayed Upwelling:Increased Trophic Mismatch
Why an Individual Based Model?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Length (mm)
# o
f E
. pa
cif
ica
0200
400600800
100012001400
16001800
3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Length (mm)
# o
f E
. p
acif
ica
Summer Winter
Advection Grazing Mortality
Euphausia pacifica Length (mm)
# of
E.
paci
fica
Get Individual Physical Data
Get Domain Physical Data
Reseed PopulationBegin Population Loop
Calculate Growth
Assign Life Stage
Adult Female?
Reproduce?Calculate Reproductive
Weight
All Individuals Evaluated?
yes
yes
no
Next Individual
no
Update Position
Update Population and Output Population Stats
End Time? Close Output Files and Stop Program
no
Mortality
new individuals via eggs
yes or no
yes
yes
Individual-Based Model of Euphausia pacifica
Get Individual Physical Data
Get Domain Physical Data
Reseed PopulationBegin Population Loop
Calculate Growth
Assign Life Stage
Adult Female?
Reproduce?Calculate Reproductive
Weight
All Individuals Evaluated?
yes
yes
no
Next Individual
no
Update Position
Update Population and Output Population Stats
End Time? Close Output Files and Stop Program
no
Mortality
new individuals via eggs
yes or no
yes
yes
Individual-Based Model of Euphausia pacifica
Get ROMS Data
Bioenergetics
Particle Tracking
Output Data
U-velocity, V-velocity, W-velocity
Temperature, Salinity, Phytoplankton
POPCYCLE Model Time
Saved ROMS Data Time 2
Saved ROMS Data Time 1
POPCYCLE – Get ROMS Data
ρ,u,ν
ρ,u,ν ρ,u,ν
ρ,u,ν
POPCYCLE - Bioenergetics
Egg DevelopmentTemperature Dependent
GrowthFood Dependent
ReproductionLife Stage DependentFood & Time Dependent
Stage ProgressionWeight Dependent
MortalityPredationStarvation Ohman MD 1984
POPCYCLE – Particle Tracking4th Order Runge-Kutta Methods
Diel Vertical MigrationCue To Migrate = Light Difference (Isolume Tracking)
Swim Speed = Maximum Swim Speed * Scale Factors
Scale Factors (range from 0 –1) include Light, Size, Hunger, Life Stage, Food, Position
Weight (ug C) Food Concentration (ug C)
Sca
le F
acto
r
0
1
POPCYCLE / ROMS FLOATSDifferences
• Temporal Interpolation• Run Offline
• No Interpolation• Run Real-Time
POPCYCLE ROMS FLOATS
POPCYCLEFLOATS
30 Day Particle Tracks Day 30 Final Position
POPCYCLEFLOATS
POPCYCLE / ROMS FLOATSDifferences
• Temporal Interpolation• Run Offline
• Variable Population Size• Stage Structured Population• Home-Grown Code
• No Interpolation• Run Real-Time
• Static Population Size• Single Stage Population• Community Support
POPCYCLE ROMS FLOATS
Regional Ocean Modeling System
Coos Bay, OR
Cape Mendocino, CA
West Longitude
Nor
th L
atitu
de
West Longitude
Depth (m
)
•Forcing from NCEP-NARR (3 hr)BULK_FLUXES, EMINUSP, LONGWAVE_OUT,Analytical ATM Pressure
•Boundary from ECCO (3 day)FSCHAPMAN, M2FLATHER M3RADIATION, TRADIATIONNudge (in) = 5 d
•Model Spun-up for 1 year
•NPZD Model
•Daily Averaged Output Saved
2005 ROMS Satellite ComparisonTemperature
Offshore Onshore
Satellite
ROMS
Satellite
ROMS
Tem
pera
ture
2005 ROMS Satellite ComparisonChlorophyll a
Offshore Onshore
Satellite
ROMS
Satellite
ROMS
Chl
orop
hyll
a
IBM - Initial Seeding Locations
POPCYCLE Model Options
1000 Particles Released per Site
Initialized on January 5, 2001 & 2005
Model Run for 200 days
Initial Particle Weight = 40 μg C (i.e. small furcilia larvae)
Starvation
No Predation
No Reproduction
Coos Bay
Mendocino
Bodega
Pescadero
Pt. Sur
West Longitude
Nor
th L
atitu
de
2001 2005
Spatial Variability - Bodega Release
West Longitude
Nor
th L
atitu
de
Particle W
eight (μg C
)
Particle W
eight (μg C
)
C. Mendocino C. Mendocino
Median Particle Position
Blue = 2001 Red = 2005
Bodega
Mendocino
Pescadero
West Longitude
Nor
th L
atitu
deRelease Location January 5
Median Location March 21
Mean Particle Weight (+/- 1 std.)
Mendocino Bodega Pescadero
Year Day
Blue = 2001 Red = 2005P
artic
le W
eigh
t (μ
g C
)
Additional Seeding Locations
Coos Bay
Mendocino
Bodega
Pescadero
Pt. Sur
West Longitude
Nor
th L
atitu
de
Coos Bay
Mendocino
Bodega
Pescadero
Pt. Sur
West Longitude
Nor
th L
atitu
de
Conclusions• Increased Northerly Transport out of Central
California during Winter 2005 (Compared to Winter 2001)
• Greater Starvation in Central California during 2005• Decrease in Spring Particle Weight in 2005
(Compared to 2001)
(Durant JM et al., Clim Res, 2007 33:271-283)
AcknowledgementsFunding and Support
• California SeaGrant & Ocean Protection Council (Project No. OPC-ENV-07)
• NOAA Fisheries and the Environment (FATE)
• California Energy Commission: Public Interest Energy Research – Biological Impacts of Climate Change in California (BICCCA)
Model Development
• Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Developers & Community
• Hal Batchelder, Oregon State University
Data Sources
• National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
• Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO)
• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
• Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI)
Spatial Variability - Bodega Release
Nor
th L
atitu
de
West Longitude
Particle W
eight (μg C
)
C. Mendocino
C. Mendocino
C. Mendocino
C. Mendocino
Spatial Variability - Bodega Release
Particle W
eight (μg C
)
C. Mendocino C. Mendocino
C. Mendocino C. Mendocino
Nor
th L
atitu
de
West Longitude
Bodega Release
Par
ticle
Wei
ght (
μg
C)
20012002
2006
200320042007
2005
Median Particle Position – Jan. 5 through Mar. 21
West Longitude
Nor
th L
atitu
de
Year Day
Mean Particle Weight
POPCYCLE vs ROMS FLOATS
Particle Tracking in Popcycle
DVM in POPCYCLE
Linked List (Mortality and Reproduction)
MBARI M2 Mooring – Temperature (deg C)
ROMS at M2 Location – Temperature (deg C)
Year Day
Dep
th (
m)
ROMS VerificationSatellite Temperature
Annual Mean Temperature Annual Mean Temperature
2005 ROMS Data2005 MODISA Satellite Data
Annual Mean Chlorophyll a
Annual Mean Chlorophyll a
Get Individual Physical Data
Get Domain Physical Data
Reseed PopulationBegin Population Loop
Calculate Growth
Assign Life Stage
Adult Female?
Reproduce?Calculate Reproductive
Weight
All Individuals Evaluated?
yes
yes
no
Next Individual
no
Update Position
Update Population and Output Population Stats
End Time? Close Output Files and Stop Program
no
Mortality
new individuals via eggs
yes or no
yes
yes
Individual-Based Model of Euphausia pacifica
Spatial Variability - Bodega Release
Nor
th L
atitu
de
West Longitude
Particle W
eight (μg C
)
C. Mendocino
C. Mendocino
C. Mendocino
C. Mendocino
POPCYCLE- Output
Particle Update NetCDF File
General Info Bioenergetics Position
Particle ID Weight z-position (meters)
Most Recent Food Hunger Factor x-position (meters)
Most Recent Temp. Stage y-position (meters)
Most Recent Salinity Time of Last Reproduction x-position (grid-units)
Grounded Flag Time of Last Molt y-position (grid-units)
Bounded Flag Reproductive Weight z-position (grid-units
Longitude
Latitude
Particle Record NetCDF File Other ASCII Files
Particle ID Stage-structured summary at each time-step
Sex Survivors File
Time of Birth/Death Predation File
Cause of Death Starvation File
Parent ID