CAPITOLUL 13

POLITICI FINANCIAR MONETARE 102'(/8/2)(57 */2%$/ - CERERE

*/2%$/

0RGHOXO RIHUW JOREDO - FHUHUH JOREDO 2*-CG) extinde modelul IS-/0SULQLQFOXGHUHDSLH HLPXQFLLDVWIHOvQFkWHFKLOLEUXO

general al economiei ia n considerare treLVHJPHQWHGHSLD SLD D

EXQXULORULVHUYLFLLORUSLD DPRQHWDU LSLD DPXQFLL([WHQVLDQX

HVWH QXPDL GH FXSULQGHUH FL L GH FRQ LQXW vQWUXFkW VXQW OXDWH vQ

FRQVLGHUDUHYDULD LLOHQLYHOXOXLJHQHUDODOSUH XULORULDUSULQDFHDVWD

VH vQORFXLHWH LSRWH]D DMXVW ULL DXWRQRPH D RIHUWHL FX LSRWH]DPDL

FRQIRUP UHDOLW LLHFRQRPLFHDGHWHUPLQ ULLDFHVWHLDSULQSUH &D

HIHFW DO DFHVWHL DERUG UL PRGHOXO JHQHUHD] SH ED]D FHORU WUHL

VHJPHQWHGHSLD RIXQF LHJOREDO DRIHUWHLLRIXQF LHJOREDO D

cereULLFDUHGHWHUPLQ SURGXVXOVRFLDOJOREDOQHWLQLYHOXOJHQHUDO

DOSUH XULORU&XWRDWHF VHOXFUHD] VLPXOWDQSHFHOHWUHLSLH HQX

H[LVW DSULRUL QLFL R FHUWLWXGLQH F YHQLWXO GH HFKLOLEUX SURGXVXO

VRFLDO JOREDO QHW DU FRUHVSXQGH VLWXD LHL GH RFXSDUH GHSOLQ D

PXQFLL 3HQWUX FD]XO FXUHQW DO IRORVLULL LQFRPSOHWH D IRU HL GH

PXQF SROLWLFD GH FHUHUH S VWUHD] UHVXUVHGH LQIOXHQ IDYRUDELO

vQ VHQVXO FUHWHULL JUDGXOXL GH RFXSDUH I U vQV DGHYHQL IDFWRU

H[FOXVLY FL R YDULDQW GH LQWHUYHQ LH SRVLELO L XQHRUL HILFLHQW

DO WXULGHFHOHODOWHWLSXULGHSROLWLFL

13.1. Modelul OG -&*vQHFRQRPLDvQFKLV LHIHFWXOpoliticilor financiar - monetare

0RGHOXOSUH]LQW RYDULDQW GHED] FODVLF LRYDULDQW

VWDQGDUGGLIHUHQ LDWHSULQIDSWXOF SULPDSRUQHWHGHODHFKLOLEUXO

GHSHSLD DPXQFLLvQWLPSFHDGRXDDFFHSW RFXSDUHDLQFRPSOHW

D IRU HL GH PXQF $QDOL]D FDOLWDWLY UHDOL]DW FX DMXWRUXO DFHVWXL

PRGHOSHUPLWHFDOLILFDUHDSROLWLFLORUPDFURHFRQRPLFHFDLVWXGLXO

formelor de manifestarHDLQIOD LHL

&RQFHSHUHD PRGHOXOXL L IXQF LRQDUHD VD VH ED]HD] SH

confruntarea cerere-RIHUW FDUH GHWHUPLQ SURGXF LD L QLYHOXO

SUH XULORU GH DVHPHQHD PRGHOXO XWLOL]HD] FRQFHSWHOH PRGHOXOXL

IS-LM, pe care, de altfel, le extinde.

)XQF LDFererii globale )XQF LD FHUHULL JOREDOH VH GHWHUPLQ SRUQLQG GH OD SLD D

EXQXULORULVHUYLFLLORULGHODSLD DPRQHWDU LIDFHOHJ WXUDvQWUH

FHUHUH L QLYHOXO SUH XULORU $FHDVW IXQF LH HVWH GHVFUHVF WRDUH

FUHWHUHDSUH XULORUGHWHUPLQ RGHSODVDUHD curbei LM spre stnga,

finalizndu-se printr-RUHGXFHUHDYHQLWXOXLUHGXFHUHDSUH XULORUDUH

un efect invers. Acest mecanism este cunoscut sub numele de efect

Keynes, pe care autorul l-D H[SOLFDW L SH VHDPD SLH HL PRQHWDUH

prin rata dobnzii.

Astfel, QFD]XOFUHWHULLSUH XULORUVHGLPLQXHD] SXWHUHDGH

FXPS UDUHDFXPS U WRULORUDGLF DWLWXODULORUGHYHQLWXUL,PSOLFLW

VH GLPLQXHD] YDORDUHD UHDO D YHQLWXULORU ORU 0S FHHD FH

PLFRUHD] vQPRGUHODWLYFDQWLWDWHDGHEDQLGHSHSLD 7LWXODULLGH

YHQLWXULYRUUHGLPHQVLRQDUDSRUWXOvQWUHEDQLLGHVWLQD LFRQVXPXOXL

L FHL FRQVLGHUD LGLVSRQLELOL SHQWUXSODVDPHQWHVSHFXOD LL FHHDFH

YDGXFH ODRFUHWHUHDUDWHLGREkQ]LLGDWRULW GLPLQX ULLPDVHLGH

EDQLDORFDWHDFHVWXLDOGRLOHDVFRS&UHWHUHDUDWei dobnzii duce la

RUHGXFHUHDFHUHULLGHLQYHVWL LLL LPSOLFLWDFHOHLJOREDOH$FHVW

PHFDQLVPHVWHLQIOXHQ DWGHHODVWLFLWDWHDFHUHULLGHEDQLvQUDSRUWFX

UDWDGREkQ]LLHIHFWXOV XGLPLQXkQGX-VHSHP VXU FHFHUHUHDHVWH

PDL HODVWLF L GLVS UkQG vQ FD] GH OLSV GH OLFKLGLW L Q FD]XO

UHGXFHULL SUH XULORU GHSHQGHQ HOH HYLGHQ LDWH SULQ DFHVWPHFDQLVP

se produc n sens opus.

3H GH DOW SDUWH FUHWHUHD SUH XULORU SRDWH LPSOLFD R

GHSODVDUH VSUH VWkQJD D FXUEHL ,6 L R GLPLQXDUH D YHQLWXOXL Q

termHQLL PRGHOXOXL GH ED] FODVLF DFHDVWD JHQHUHD] HIHFWH SH

SLD D EXQXULORU L VHUYLFLLORU vQ VHQVXO F R FUHWHUH D SUH XULORU

VHPQLILF GLPLQXDUHD YDORULL UHDOH D YHQLWXULORU FRQVXPDWRULORU

FHHD FH UHGXFH FHUHUHD GH FRQVXP L LPSOLFLW SH FHD JOREDO . n FD]XOUHGXFHULLGHSUH FRQH[LXQLOHVHSURGXFvQVHQVXQLF

)XQF LDRIHUWHLJOREDOH

)XQF LD RIHUWHL JOREDOH VH GHWHUPLQ SRUQLQG GH OD SLD D

PXQFLL L GH OD IXQF LD GH SURGXF LH L IDFH OHJ WXUD vQWUH RIHUWD

vQWUHSULQGHULORU L QLYHOXO SUH XULORU $FHDVW IXQF LH HVWH

FUHVF WRDUH L GHSHQGHQW GH QLYHOXO SUH XULORU UHIOHFWkQG

FRPSRUWDPHQWXO GH SH SLD D PXQFLL GDF VDODULLOH FUHVF DWXQFL

RIHUWD GH PXQF VH P UHWH Q FRQGL LLOH YDULDQWHL GH ED]

PHFDQLVPXOIXQF LRQHD] GHWHUPLQkQGQLYHOXOGHHFKLOLEUXDOSLH HL

PXQFLL FDUH HVWH FRQVLGHUDW DFRUHVSXQGHRFXS ULLGHSOLQHD IRU HL

GH PXQF Q FRQGL LLOH YDULDQWHL VWDQGDUG PHFDQLVPXO

IXQF LRQHD] JHQHUkQG XQ DQXPLW JUDG GH RFXSDUH GHWHUPLQDW GH

IXQF LDGHSURGXF LHQDFHDVW YDULDQW DPRGHOXOXLFD]XORFXS ULL

GHSOLQH D IRU HL GHPXQF HVWH XQ FD] SDUWLFXODU L OLPLW SHQWUX

FDUHJUDILFXOIXQF LHLGHRIHUW HVWHYHUWLFDO

0HFDQLVPXO HFKLOLEUXOXL HFRQRPLF vQ FRQGL LLOH DFHVWXL

PRGHO LD vQ FRQVLGHUDUH U VSXQVXO RIHUWHL GH PXQF OD

FUHWHUHDUHGXFHUHD SUH XULORU 'DF SUH XULOH FUHVF VDODULLOH UHDOH

VFDG QP VXUD vQ FDUH RIHUWD GHPXQF QX VH UHGXFH UH]XOW F

RIHUWDQ LL GH PXQF VXQW LQWHUHVD L vQ PRG KRW UkWRU GH VDODULXO

QRPLQDO$FHDVW vPSUHMXUDUH HVWHGHQXPLW LOX]LHPRQHWDU , de

FDUHEHQHILFLD] vQWUHSULQ] WRULLDGLF FHLFHIRUPXOHD] FHUHUHDGH

PXQF $VWIHO VLPSOLILFkQG OXFUXULOHGDF VDODULLOHQRPLQDOHVXQW

IL[H FUHWHUHD SUH XULORU GHWHUPLQ UHGXFHUHD VDODULLORU UHDOH FHHD

FHDWUDJHRFUHWHUHDFHUHULLGHPXQF SHQWUXF PXQFDGHYLQHR

PDUI UHODWLY PDL LHIWLQ vQ FRPSDUD LH FX FHOHODOWH $FHVW

FRPSRUWDPHQWVHUHIOHFW vQHYROX LDRIHUWHLGHEXQXUL$FHDVWDHVWH

OHJDW GH FHUHUHD GH PXQF PDL H[DFW GH FDQWLWDWHD GH PXQF

IRORVLW GHSURGXF WRULSULQIXQF LDGHSURGXF LH'HRDUHFHPXQFD

HVWHPDLLHIWLQ WHQWD LDSURGXF WRULORUHVWHV P UHDVF YROXPXOGH

PXQF XWLOL]DWGDURIHUWDGHEXQXULUH]XOWDW VXSOLPHQWDUQXSRDWH

ILDEVRUELW GLQFDX]DGLPLQX ULLVDODULXOXLUHDO&UHWHUHDGHSUH XUL

VWLPXOHD] RIHUWD GDU QX DUH HIHFWXO VFRQWDW Q VLWXD LD XWLOL] ULL

GHSOLQH D IRU HL GHPXQF FHHD FH FRQVWLWXLH FD]XO OLPLW RIHUWD

GHYLQHWRWDOLQHODVWLF JUDILFXOHLHVWHYHUWLFDOGHRDUHFHSURGXF LD

QXSRDWHFUHWHvQFLXGDFUHWHULLSUH XULORU

13.1.3. Echilibrul gOREDOLRPDMXOFDUDFWHULVWLFLOH

politicilor economice de remediere Q YDULDQWD GH ED] FODVLF D PRGHOXOXL 2*-&* IXQF LD

RIHUWHL JOREDOH HVWH YHUWLFDO DGLF RIHUWD HVWH LQHODVWLF ID GH

SUH LDU HFKLOLEUXO GH SH SLD D PXQFLL 1H GHWHUPLQ QLYHOul de

HFKLOLEUXDOSURGXF LHL

deplasarea spre dreapta a curbei cererii, din CG0 n CG1. Deoarece

SURGXF LD HVWH ULJLG LQHODVWLF OD SUH SXQFWXO GH HFKLOLEUX VH

GHSODVHD] GLQ$vQ%SURGXFkQGFDHIHFWGRDUFUHWHUHDSUH XULORU

3ROLWLFD HVWH LQHILFLHQW GHRDUHFH QX FRQGXFH QLFL OD FUHWHUHD

SURGXF LHLQLFLODFUHWHUHDYROXPXOXLGHPXQF DWUDVvQSURGXF LH

)LJ(FKLOLEUXOSLH HLPXQFLLLHFKLOLEUXOJOREDOvQYDULDQWD GHED] FODVLF DPRGHOXOXL2* CG

n varianta standard a modelului OG &* IXQF LDRIHUWHLJOREDOHHVWHRIXQF LHFXGRX UDPXULRUDPXU FUHVF WRDUHSHQWUX

FD]XO RFXS ULL LQFRPSOHWH D IRU HL GHPXQF L R D GRXD UDPXU

YHUWLFDO SHQWUX FD]XO RFXS ULL FRPSOHWH D IRU HL GH PXQF

(FKLOLEUXOGHSHSLD DEXQXULORULVHUYLFLLORUHFKLOLEUXOSURGXF LHL

2FXSDUHD LQFRPSOHW D IRU HLGHPXQF HVWH FD]XO FHOPDL

IUHFYHQWvQWkOQLWvQSUDFWLFDHFRQRPLF LGHDFHHDHVWHFHOPDLPXOW

VWXGLDW Q DFHVW FD] SXQFWXO GH HFKLOLEUX VH VLWXHD] SH UDPXUD

FUHVF WRDUH D IXQF LHL RIHUWHL JOREDOH LDU HFKLOLEUXO VH QXPHWH

echilibrul de subutilizareRPDMXODIHUHQWVHQXPHWHRPDMGH

tip keynesist L HVWH UH]XOWDWXO XQHL LQVXILFLHQWHP ULPL D FHUHULL

JOREDOHDGLF DOVLWX ULLSUHDVSUHVWkQJDDFXUEHLDFHVWHLD3XWHUHD

SXEOLF SRate interveni cu politici economice de stimulare a cererii,

FDUH JHQHUHD] HIHFWHOH PHQ LRQDWH PDL VXV DVWIHO vQFkW SROLWLFD

UHVSHFWLY VH GRYHGHWH D IL HILFLHQW - DGLF GXFH OD GLPLQXDUHD

gradului de neocupare a muncii. Stimularea cererii prin politici

JXYHUQDPHQWDOH VH IDFH GH UHJXO SULQ PLMORDFH EXJHWDUH VDX

PRQHWDUH $FHVWH PLMORDFH JHQHUHD] vQ DIDUD HIHFWXOXL XUP ULW

FUHWHUHD JUDGXOXL GH RFXSDUH L XQ HIHFW DGLDFHQW QHGRULW -

FUHWHUHDSUH XULORUvQILJXUDGHODS0 la p1). Efectul nedorit este UH]XOWDWXOILHDOFUHWHULLFHUHULLJOREDOHFDUH]XOWDWDOVXSOLPHQW ULL

FKHOWXLHOLORUSXEOLFHILHDOPRQHWL] ULLHFRQRPLFH0RGHOXODWHVW R

OHJ WXU GHWLSGLUHFWvQWUHQLYHOXOGHDFWLYLWDWHLQLYHOXOJHQHUDODO

SUH XULORU FD UH]XOWDW DO YDULD LHL FHUHULL $FHDVWD VXJHUHD]

H[LVWHQ DXQHL UHOD LL LQYHUVH vQWUHRPDML LQIOD LH UHOD LHSXV vQ

HYLGHQ SULQ IXQF LD OXL 3KLOLSV 5HOD LD RPDM-LQIOD LH HVWH

FRQGL LRQDW GHUDSRUWXOGLQWUHHIHFWXOGHSUH LHIHFWXOGHYHQLW/D

UkQGXOV XDFHVW raport depinde de elasticitatea-SUH DRIHUWHLFXFkW

DFHDVWD HVWHPDLPDUH FX DWkW UDSRUWXO HVWHPDLPDUH L LPSOLFLW

LQIOD LDJHQHUHD] XQRPDMPDLPDUH

13.1.4. Modelul simplificat OG - CG

Spre deosebire de modelele prezentate anterior, n care

SUH XOHUDIL[vQDFHVWPRGHOSUH XOHVWHFRQVLGHUDWYDULDELO

0RGHOXO VLPSOLILFDW RIHUW JOREDO -FHUHUH JOREDO FXSULQGH

trei module:

a) XQ PRGXO GH WLS LQYHVWL LL-HFRQRPLL ,6 vQ FDUH IXQF LD GHFRQVXP HVWH PRGLILFDW SULQ LQFOXGHUHD QLYHOXOXL JHQHUDO DO

SUH XULORUSFDUHDIHFWHD] FRQVXPXOSULQWU-RUHOD LHLQYHUV L

DO F UHL LPSDFW HVWH FXDQWLILFDWSULQWU-un factor de sensitivitate

(h), exprimnd modificarea consumului la modificarea cu o XQLWDWHDQLYHOXOXLJHQHUDODOSUH XULORU

IXQF LDGHFRQVXP

( )& F < 7Q & K S= + 0 (1.1) IXQF LDGHLQYHVWL LL

, D < E U ,= + 0 (1.2) HFXD LDGHHFKLOLEUX

< & , *= + + (1.3) valorile e[RJHQH DOH FKHOWXLHOLORU JXYHUQDPHQWDOH L

impozitelor nete:

* * Q 7Q= =0 0 7 (1.4) b) XQPRGXO GH WLS FHUHUH GHPRQHG -RIHUW GHPRQHG /0 vQ

FDUH IXQF LD FHUHULL GH EDQL HVWH PRGLILFDW SULQ LQFOXGHUHD

DFHOXLDL QLYHO JHQHUDO DO SUH XULORU FDUH DIHFWHD] FHUHUHD GH

bani printr-R UHOD LH GLUHFW L DO F UXL LPSDFW HVWH FXDQWLILFDW

printr-XQIDFWRUGHVHQVLWLYLWDWHMH[SULPkQGYDULD LDFHUHULLGH

EDQLODYDULD LDFXRXQLWDWHDQLYHOXOXLJHQHUDODOSUH XULORU

IXQF ia cererii de bani:

0G O < O U / M S= + + 1 1 2 0 (2.1) nivelul ofertei de bani, dat exogen:

0V 0= 0 (2.2) HFXD LDGHHFKLOLEUXSHSLD DPRQHWDU

0G 0V= (2.3) c) XQ PRGXO UHSUH]HQWkQG IXQF LD GH RIHUW

YDULD LD RIHUWHL OD YDULD LD FX R XQLWDWH D QLYHOXOXL JHQHUDO DO

SUH XULORU L vQ FDUH HVWH LQWURGXV XQ IDFWRU GH FRUHF LH S0) UHSUH]HQWkQGQLYHOXOPLQLPGHSUH VXEFDUHRIHUWDHVWHQXO

( )N S S

0 GDF S ! S

GDF S S

(3)

'LQPRGXOXO,6VHVHOHFWHD]

++ 02

02

pl

jbhMlb

(5.1)

SN

< S = +1

0 (5.2)

5HOD LD H[SULP RIHUWD JOREDO LDU UHOD LD FHUHUHD

JOREDO LHOHGHILQHVFIRQGXOPRGHOXOXLFDPRGHODORIHUWHLJOREDOH

L DO FHUHULL JOREDOH 3DQWD IXQF LHL GH RIHUW HVWH N LDU SDQWD

IXQF LHLGHFHUHUHHVWH

( )+

+

=

+

+

KE M

O

F DE O

O

K O E M

O F D E O2

1

2

2

2 11 1. (6)

3DQWD IXQF LHL GH FHUHUH HVWH QHJDWLY L HVWH GHWHUPLQDW

SULQQXP U WRUGHVHQVLWLYLW LOHIXQF LLORUGHFRQVXPLQYHVWL LLL

FHUHUH GH EDQL vQ UDSRUW FX SUH XULOH )XQF LLOH GH FRQVXP L

LQYHVWL LLOHGHILQHVFFHUHUHDSHSLD DEXQXULORULVHUYLFLLORUEXQXUL

L VHUYLFLL GH FRQVXP L EXQXUL L VHUYLFLL GH LQYHVWL LL IXQF LD

FHUHULLGHEDQLGHILQHWHFHUHUHDSHSLD DPRQHWDU PSUHXQ FXHOH

GHILQHVF FHUHUHD JOREDO 3UH XULOH GH FDUH FHOH WUHL IXQF LL VXQW

GHSHQGHQWH VXQW SUH XOWDULIXO SHQWUXEXQXUL L VHUYLFLLGHFRQVXP

SLSUH XOEDQLORUUHVSHFWLYUDWDGREkQ]LLU

(ODVWLFLWDWHD FHUHULL JOREDOH GHSLQGH GH WR L SDUDPHWULL

PRGXOHORU,6L/0LHVWHFXDWkWPDLPDUHFXFkW

VXQW PDL PDUL vQFOLQD LD PDUJLQDO VSUH FRQVXP F L VSUH

LQYHVWL LL D VHQVLWLYLWDWHD FRQVXPXOXL vQ raport cu nivelul

JHQHUDODOSUH XULORUKLVHQVLWLYLWDWHDFHUHULLGHEDQLvQUDSRUW

FXQLYHOXOJHQHUDODOSUH XULORUM

HVWHPDLPLF VHQVLWLYLWDWHDFHUHULLGHEDQLvQUDSRUWFXSURGXVXO

final (l1). ,PSDFWXO VHQVLWLYLW LORU LQYHVWL LLORU L D FHUHrii de bani n

UDSRUWFXUDWDGREkQ]LLELUHVSHFWLYO2) este confuz ntruct cei GRL SDUDPHWUL DSDU DWkW OD QXP U WRUXO FkW L OD QXPLWRUXO

UHVSHFWLYHLHODVWLFLW L

0 ULPHD FHUHULL JOREDOH FD L SR]L LD HL vQWU-un plan de

coordonate (Y,p) sunt dependente de nivelele autonome ale LQYHVWL LLORU FKHOWXLHOLORU JXYHUQDPHQWDOH LPSR]LWHORU QHWH L

RIHUWHL GH EDQL SULPHOH WUHL LQkQG GH PRGXOXO ,6 LDU XOWLPD GH

PRGXOXO/0IDFWRULSULQFDUHVHUHIOHFW SROLWLFLOHPDFURHFRQRPLFH

prin care poate intervenLDXWRULWDWHDSXEOLF

1LYHOXOGHHFKLOLEUXDOSURGXVXOXLILQDO