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Model Analysis for Low Carbon SocietyModel Analysis for Low Carbon Society(1) Japan’s Case(1) Japan’s Case

1

Shuichi AshinaNational Institute for Environmental Studies

The 18th Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change “Building an Architecture of an Effective Future Regime”, 2-3 March, 2009, Vietnam2009/03/02

Green buildingsSelf-sustained city

Decentralized services

Eco awarenessEffective communication

Dematerialization

Next generation vehiclesEfficient transportation system

Advanced logistics

Techno-Socio Innovation Study

Transportation

Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050

Advisory board：advice to project

BaU scenario

Interventionscenario

EE improvement

New energy

Energy saving

Structure change

Life-stylechange

Tech. innovation

Urban structure IT-society

GHG reduction target（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level）

Evaluate feasibility of Long-termScenario

Develop socio-economic scenario, evaluate counter-measures using econ-techno models G

HG

em

issi

on

Transportationsystem

-1

135

Valid

Equity

Suitable

Effective

ReductionTarget study

1990

2000

2020

2050

2010

scenarioEvaluate feasibility of GHG reduction target

ScenarioDevelopment

StudyMiddle-termTarget year

Loge-termTarget year

60 Researchers

Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy

[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]22009/03/02

Japan LCS (Low-Carbon Society) (FY2004-2008)Research Project supported by Global Environmental Research Fund, MOEJ 32009/03/02

Technology development,socio-economic change projected by historically

Forecasting Reference future

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]

Longprojected by historically trend

Forecastingfuture world

Service demand change

by changing social

Mitigation Technology

developmentRequiredPolicy

intervention and Investment

required

Envi

ronm

enta

l pre

ssur

e

Requ

ired

inte

rven

tion3. We need

“Innovation”to realize visions

4 2020 20502000

Long-term target year

Release of A

IM result

Back-casting

Normative target world

by changing social behavior, lifestyles

and institutions required intervention policy and measures

Envi

ronm

enta

l pre

ssur

e

Checkingyear(2015)

Checkingyear(2025)

Requ

ired

inte

rven

tion

2. We need“Visions”

1.”Target” is tough

50% reductionsIn the world2009/03/02

Steps towards Japan LCS Scenarios

Step 1• Depicting socio-economic visions in 2050

Step 2• Estimating energy service demands


Step 3• Exploring innovations for energy demands and energy supplies

Step 4• Quantifying energy demand and supply to estimate CO2 emissions

Outcome 1) Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 below 1990 level

2009/03/02 5

2050 below 1990 level

Step 5• Investigating “When and Which options and How much” of each option

should be introduced in order to achieve the goal.

Outcome 2) Roadmap and Dozen Actions toward LCS

Two different but likely future societiesVision A Vision B

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-orientedUrban/Personal Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthrough Self-sufficientTechnology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle

Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally

Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth

2009/03/02 6

Akemi Imagawa

• describing LCS in a certain future, concretely, quantitatively, and consistently with physical,

SnapshotCertain year

Time frame

We prepared models to quantify the LCSs

quantitatively, and consistently with physical, economical, technological laws.

Snapshot

models

• focuses on the dynamics and trend transitionof the society, economic system, and the technological system.

Transition

models

• Representing inter-temporal optimal strategy

Certain year

(e.g. 2050)

Over the years

(e.g. 2000- • Representing inter-temporal optimal strategyon introduction of new technologies and economic activity change in order to achieve the future targets.

Backcast

model

2009/03/02 7

(e.g. 2000-2050)

Environmental Option Database (EDB)Stores information of activities which accompany or reduce GHGs emission.

Developed snapshot and transition modelsTopics to be asked LCS Models

i) Industrial structure

ii) Dwellings

1. Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model2. Building Dynamics Model

3. Household Production and Lifestyle iii) Lifestyle

iv) Passenger transportation

v) Freight transportation

vi) Energy supply

3. Household Production and Lifestyle Model

4. Passenger Transportation Demand Model

5. Freight Transportation Demand Model6. Energy Supply Model

7. Material Stock and Flow Model

2009/03/02 8

vii) Material stock/flow

viii) Consistency of energy balanceix) Economic consistency

8. Energy Snapshot Tool

(1.Inter-sector and macro Economic Model)

+0. Population and Household Model

Demographic composition in Japanby Population and Household Model

Age Age

Vision A80-84 80-84>85>85

Vision AMale

Male

Female

Female20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Vision B

Female (103)Male (103)

4,000 0 4,0000-4

10-14

20-24

Female(103)Male (103)

4,000 0 4,0000-4

10-14

20-24

In 2000 In 20502009/03/02 9

Industrial Structure Change in 2050, Japan by Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

250

300

350

Tri.

yen

at 2

000

pric

e

2000 2050 A 2050 B

0

50

100

150

200

250

Tri.

yen

at 2

000

pric

e

2009/03/02 10

0

Agric

ultur

eFo

restr

yFis

hing

Coal

minin

gCr

ude o

il & N

G mi

ning

Othe

r mini

ngFo

od pr

oduc

ts &

beve

rage

sTe

xtiles

Pulp,

pape

r & pa

per p

rodu

ctsPu

blish

ing &

print

ingCh

emica

l mate

rials

Chem

ical p

rodu

ctsPe

troleu

m pr

oduc

tsCo

al pr

oduc

tsNo

n-me

tallic

mine

ral

Pig i

ron &

crud

e stee

lOt

her s

teel p

rodu

ctsNo

n-fer

rous

meta

lFa

brica

ted m

etal p

rodu

ctsMa

chine

ryEl

ec.m

achin

e, eq

uip. &

supp

lies

Tran

spor

t equ

ipmen

tPr

ecisi

on in

strum

ents

Othe

r man

ufactu

ring

Cons

tructi

onTh

erma

l pow

er pl

ant

Non-

therm

al po

wer p

lant

Town

gas

Wate

r sup

plyW

holes

ale &

retai

l trad

eFin

ance

& in

sura

nce

Real

estat

eRa

ilway

tran

spor

tRo

ad tr

ansp

ort

Wate

r tra

nspo

rtAi

r tra

nspo

rtOt

her t

rans

port

Comm

unica

tions

Publi

c ser

vice a

ctivit

iesOt

her s

ervic

e acti

vities

<Sectors>

Projection of residential building stock by insulation level

by Building Dynamics Model

601999 standard

20

30

40

50

Mill

ion

hous

es

1999 standard

1992 standard

1980 standard

Without insulation

1999 standardProjection

Projection based on enhanced policy

2009/03/02 11

0

10

20

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048

1992 standard

1980 standard

Without insulation

Projection based on present policy

Quantification of Scenario A and B in 2050Quantification of Scenario A and B in 2050year unit 2000 2050 modelA B

Population Mil. 127 94 (74%) 100 (79%)Population and Household model

Household Mil. 47 43 (92%) 42 (90%)Average number of personper household 2.7 2.2 2.4

GDP Tril.JPY 519 1,080(208%) 701(135%)GDP Tril.JPY 519 1,080(208%) 701(135%)Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

Share of productionprimary % 2% 1% 2%secondary % 28% 18% 20%tertiary % 71% 80% 79%

Office floor space Mil.m2 1654 1,934(117%) 1,718(104%)Building dynamics Model & Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

Travel Passenger volume bill. p・km 1,297 1045 (81%) 963 (74%)

Transportation demand Private car % 53% 32% 51%Public transport % 34% 52% 38%

12

12

Transportation demand model & Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

Public transport % 34% 52% 38%Walk/bycycle % 7% 7% 8%

Freight transport volume bill. t・km 570 608(107%) 490 (86%)

Industrial production index 100 126 (126%) 90 (90%)Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

Steel production Mil.t 107 67 (63%) 58 (54%)Etylen production Mil.t 8 5 (60%) 3 (40%)Cement production Mil.t 82 51 (62%) 47 (57%)Paper production Mil.t 32 18 (57%) 26 (81%)2009/03/02

7.0

8.0

9.0

Historical

Projected energy efficiency improvement: Projected energy efficiency improvement: AirAir--conditioners for cooling and heatingconditioners for cooling and heating

AIST

MOE

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

COP

(Coe

ffic

ient

of p

erfo

rman

ce)

Best

Average

METI METI

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

COP

(Coe

ffic

ient

of p

erfo

rman

ce)

Worst

Energy efficiency improvement has been encouraged by Top Runner Program.

3 43 460

70

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n (M

toe)

Change of the numbersof householdsChange of servicedemand per householdChange of servicedemand per household

Residential sector Energy reduction potential: 40-50%

InnovationsInnovations

17

12

23

9

20

30

40

50

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n (M

toe) demand per household

Improvement of energyefficiencyElectricity consumption

H2 consumption

Solar consumption

Biomass consumption

Gas consumption

Hi-Insulated housing

Energy Effiency

14

0

10

2000 2050A 2050B

Gas consumption

Oil consumption

Energy consumption in2000

Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and BChange of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per householdChange of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

2009/03/02

High efficiency lighting【eg LED lighting】

Photovoltaic Eco-life education

34-69MW(25-47% house has PV on roof (now 1%)) and develop high efficiency (<30%) PV

LCS house in 2050Comfortable and

energy-saving house

rooftop gardening

Utilizing solar power

10-20% energy demand reduction

Visions Visions andandInnovationsInnovations

【eg LED lighting】

Monitoring systemequipped with appliances

Reduce 60% warmingenergy demand,share 100%

Super high efficiency air conditioner

Solar heating

Diffusion rate: 20-60%（currently 8%）

High-insulation

Reduce 1/2 energy demandShare 100%

15

COP (coefficients of performance=8), share 100%

Heat-pump heating

COP＝5share 30-70%

Fuel cell

share 0-20%

Stand-by energy reduction

Reduce 1/3 energydemand, share 100% 5

High efficiency appliances reduce energy demand and

support comfortable and safe lifestyle

Good information foreconomy and environment

makes people’s behaviorlow-carbon2009/03/02

Seconday Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

Industrial Residential Commercial

Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2000(Actual)

2050(Scenario A)

2050(Scenario B)

Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.

Decrease of energy demand

Trans. Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans. Frg.: Transportation (Freight)

16

Trans. Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans. Frg.: Transportation (Freight)

Possible energy demands reductions for each sector:Industry：structural change and introduction of saving energy tech. 30-40％Passenger Transport :land use, saving energy, carbon-intensity change 80％Freight Transport :efficient transportation system, energy efficient 50％Residential: high-insulated and energy-saving houses 40-50％Commercial: high-insulated building and energy saving devices 40％

2009/03/02

And we need low-carbon energy.- Renewable energy- Nuclear energy- Fossil fuel + CCS

Coal Oil Gas

Nuclear

100 200 300 400 500 600

2000(Actural)

Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

17

Biomass

Nuclear

Solar and Wind

2050(Scenario A)

2050(Scenario B)

Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind 2009/03/02

621

6124

10

Change of activityChange

of activity

Redu

ctio

n of

dem

and

Indu

stry

Reduction of service demandImprovement ofenergy intensity

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase)

・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)

・Farm products produced and consumed in season

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven SocietyDemand side energy -40% ＋ Low carbonization of primary energy＋ＣＣＳwith moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050

70%

redu

ctio

n

90

36

1013

38

97

28

17

41

1990

CO

2 Em

issi

on

2000

CO

2 Em

issi

on

Impr

ovem

ent o

f in

tens

ity

of e

nerg

y su

pply

Impr

ovem

ent o

f ca

rbon

inte

nsity

of

end

-use

Impr

ovem

ent o

f en

ergy

inte

nsity

of

end

-use

Redu

ctio

n of

dem

and

Ener

gy d

eman

dse

ctor

Ener

gy s

uppl

y se

ctor

Indu

stry

Tran

spor

tatio

nRe

side

ntia

l &

com

mer

cial

Improvement ofenergy intensityImprovement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction of service demand



・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Insulation・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)

・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment

・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house・Photovoltaic

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function

18

77

36CCS

Carbon CaptureStorage

1990

CO

2000

CO

2050

CO

2 Em

issi

on

Impr

ovem

ent o

f ca

rbon

inte

nsity

of

ene

rgy

supp

ly

Ener

gy s

uppl

y se

ctor

Tran

spor

tatio

nEn

ergy

sup

ply



Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function・Modal shift to public transportation service・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as

electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle・High efficiency freight vehicle・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)

・Power generation without CO2 emission・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy

・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply

2009/03/02

Steps towards Japan LCS Scenarios

Step 1• Depicting socio-economic visions in 2050



Step 3• Exploring innovations for energy demands and energy supplies

Step 4• Quantifying energy demand and supply to estimate CO2 emissions

Outcome 1) Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 below 1990 level

2009/03/02 19

2050 below 1990 level

Step 5• Investigating “When and Which options and How much” of each option

should be introduced in order to achieve the goal.

Outcome 2) Roadmap and Dozen Actions toward LCS

To achieve the 70% reduction goal by 2050, we investigated To achieve the 70% reduction goal by 2050, we investigated -- which options should be selected,which options should be selected,-- when options should be introduced,when options should be introduced,-- how much of each option should be introduced at each stage,how much of each option should be introduced at each stage,

with reference of candidatewith reference of candidate options as prepared.options as prepared.

Current societyCO2

Economicactivity

CO2

BaU society

Technology, infrastructure, institution, management

options

Economic activity

Actions

2050 Society

20

Economic activityCO2 Emission

2000 2050

CO2

Low carbon society

BaU society

70% reductiontarget

ActionsActions

2009/03/02

How to depict LCS roadmaps?70

%re

duct

ion

621

90

36

77

6124

1013

38

97

28

17

41

Change of activity

1990

CO

2 Em

issi

on

2000

CO

2 Em

issi

on

Change of activity

Impr

ovem

ent o

f in

tens

ity

of e

nerg

y su

pply

Impr

ovem

ent o

f ca

rbon

inte

nsity

of

end

-use

Impr

ovem

ent o

f en

ergy

inte

nsit

y of

end

-use

Redu

ctio

n of

dem

and

Ener

gy d

eman

dse

ctor

Ener

gy s

uppl

y se

ctor

Indu

stry

Tran

spor

tatio

nRe

side

ntia

l &

com

mer

cial

Reduction of service demandImprovement ofenergy intensityImprovement ofcarbon intensity










・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function・Modal shift to public transportation service


77

36CCS


1990

CO

2000

CO

2050

CO

2 Em

issi

on

Impr

ovem

ent o

f ca

rbon

inte

nsity

of

ene

rgy

supp

ly

Ener

gy s

uppl

y se

ctor

Tran

spor

tatio

nEn

ergy

sup

ply

service demand



・Modal shift to public transportation service・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as





Target Vision in 2050 Backcast Model

2009/03/02 21

RoadmapsNarrative Roadmaps

Constraints Analysis•Constraints Analysis is to identify the gap between current situation and visions described in “Future objective”

•options can be defined as countermeasures to overcome the constraints•Various types of constraints should be taken into account including;

Initiation constraintsInitiation constraints Dissemination speed constraints (Cost, amenity, and efficiency) Upper limit constraints (Physical, Social, and Technological )

Technical constraintsTechnical constraints

CurrentSituation

FutureObjectives

22

TodayToday Low Low CarbonCarbonSocietySociety

Technical constraintsTechnical constraints

Economical constraintsEconomical constraints

Social constraintsSocial constraints

Informational constraintsInformational constraints

2009/03/02

Future Objectives

[Solar and Wind Utilization Design]

[Household Finance-friendly Environmental Efficiency]

1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment

[Household Finance-friendly Environmental Efficiency]

[Nurturing of Worker Skills; Information Transmission]

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps

[Standardization Period]

23

[Standardization Period]

[Environmental Efficiency Labeling Introduction Period]

2009/03/02

Identification of necessary actions

Diffusion of green design building

Relatively high cost compared to general building

Lack in knowledge of regional specific climatic conditions

Step by step strategies

Certification & registration of labeling

Incentives to the higher performance building

Organizing training classes and events

Lack in information of environmental performance of the building

general building specific climatic conditions

Indirect options

Direct options

24

of labeling

Establishment of simplified evaluation

method

dissemination of diagnosis practitioners

Too complicated calculation required

Lack in personnel who can implement the

calculation

Indirect options

Barrier breaking

2009/03/02

1. Comfortable and Green Built EnvironmentEfficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built environment design. Intelligent buildings.

2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate AppliancesUse of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances. Initial cost reduction by rent and release system

7. Pedestrian Friendly City DesignCity design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient public transport

8. Low-Carbon Electricity Supplying low carbon electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power

A Dozen Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies Residential/commercial sector actions

Energy supply sector actions

Press release on May 22, 2008

Initial cost reduction by rent and release system resulting in improved availability.

3. Promoting Seasonal Local FoodSupply of seasonal and safe low-carbon localfoods for local cuisine

4. Sustainable Building Materials Using local and renewable buildings materials and products.

5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and Industry Businesses aiming at creating and

electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants

9. Local Renewable Resources for Local DemandEnhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind, biomass and others.

10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply system with required infrastructure

Industrial sector actions

Cross-sector actions

25

Industry Businesses aiming at creating and operating in low carbon market. Supplying low carbon and high value-added goods and services through energy efficient production systems.

12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Human resource development for building “Low-Carbon Society” and recognizing extraordinary contributions.

6. Swift and Smooth LogisticsNetworking seamless logistics systems with supply chain management, using both transportation and ICT infrastructure

11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational ChoicesVisualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by consumers, and public acknowledgement of such consumers

Transportation sector actions

Cross-sector actions

2009/03/02

1. Comfortable & green built environment

Keep warm/cool air in the building by active solar system and by changing building structure.

2. Anytime, anywhere appropriate appliances

Rental services relieve the burden of initial cost of high efficiency equipments, and promote service supply independent from manufacture.

12. Low carbon society leadership

Citizens understand that low-carbon society promotes safe and cozy life, and undertake various actions towards that end.

Low-Carbon Residential/Commercial Sectors

manufacture.

4. Sustainable building materials

Actively use of

3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food

Consumers select low-carbon seasonal food and can get the information about farm producers.

CO2CO2 CO2CO2CO2CO2

11. Labeling to encourage smart and rational choices

Disclosing the amount of CO2 emission makes consumers select low-carbon products in affordable way.

various actions towards that end.

10. Next generation fuels

26

9. Local renewable resources for local demand

Active selection ofregional solar/wind energies.

Actively use of wood feedstock and wood manufactures.

8. Low-carbon electricity

Selection of low-carbon electricity such as renewable/nuclear energy and thermal power with CCS.

Simultaneous supply of heat and electricity by fuel cell.

5. Environmentally enlightened business and industry

Change of office space design and use fully to low-carbon style.

2009/03/02

How to depict LCS roadmaps?70

%re

duct

ion

621

90

36

77

6124

1013

38

97

28

17

41

Change of activity

1990

CO

2 Em

issi

on

2000

CO

2 Em

issi

on

Change of activity

Impr

ovem

ent o

f in

tens

ity

of e

nerg

y su

pply

Impr

ovem

ent o

f ca

rbon

inte

nsity

of

end

-use

Impr

ovem

ent o

f en

ergy

inte

nsit

y of

end

-use

Redu

ctio

n of

dem

and

Ener

gy d

eman

dse

ctor

Ener

gy s

uppl

y se

ctor

Indu

stry

Tran

spor

tatio

nRe

side

ntia

l &

com

mer

cial

Reduction of service demandImprovement ofenergy intensityImprovement ofcarbon intensity










・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function・Modal shift to public transportation service


77

36CCS


1990

CO

2000

CO

2050

CO

2 Em

issi

on

Impr

ovem

ent o

f ca

rbon

inte

nsity

of

ene

rgy

supp

ly

Ener

gy s

uppl

y se

ctor

Tran

spor

tatio

nEn

ergy

sup

ply

service demand



・Modal shift to public transportation service・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as





Target Vision in 2050 Backcast Model

2009/03/02 27

RoadmapsNarrative Roadmaps

• Investigating “When and Which options and How much” of each option (countermeasures and policies) should be introduced in order to achieve the goal with keeping

Backcast Model: Overview

introduced in order to achieve the goal with keeping consistency of energy/economy.

Future target vision

Social/Economical conditions

Set of options

And, each options’

Input

Feasibility of the target Roadmaps CO2/Cost trajectories

Output

2009/03/02 28


Sequential order

Elapsed time

Kick-off period

• Investigating “When and Which options and How much” of each option (countermeasures and policies) should be introduced in order to achieve the goal with keeping

Why did we develop the Backcast Model?To involve…

introduced in order to achieve the goal with keeping consistency of energy/economy.

Future target vision

Social/Economical conditions

Set of options


Input

Feasibility of the target Roadmaps CO2/Cost trajectories

Output

2009/03/02 29


Sequential order

Elapsed time

Kick-off period

300

350

p001

p002

Preliminary results: CO2 Emissions

Now we faces difficulties of

150

200

250

CO2

emis

sion

s [t

C]

p012 p011 p010

p003p005p006p007

p008

p009

• Now we faces difficulties of

collecting data of

• Sequential order

• Elapsed time

0

50

100

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

p009 p008 p007

p006 p005 p004

p003 p002 p001

BAU

p009p010

2009/03/02 30

p001. Confortable and Green Built Environment p007. Pedestrian Friendly City Design

p002. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances p008. Low-Carbon Electricity

p003. Promoting Seasonal Local Food p009. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand

p004. Sustainable Building Materials p010. Next Generation Fuels

p005. Environmentally Enlightened Business and Industry p011. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices

p006. Swift and Smooth Logistics p012. Low-Carbon Society Leadership

Elapsed time

• Kick-off period

Anticipated results of Backcast model:Roadmap

建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の検討断熱構造住宅建築技術の普及省エネ建築物建築技術の普及施工者向けの研修会開催

2045 20502000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

施工者向けの研修会開催匠の建築技術伝承講座の開設

RES) 断熱構造住宅の普及による暖房需要の低減

COM) 省エネ建築物の普及による冷房・暖房・照明・動力需要の低減建築物用途別の簡易性能評価手法の確立住宅・建築物ラベリング制度の導入省エネ・省CO2診断士の養成段階的に引き上げられる長期的な省エネ基準目標値の設定住宅ラベリング制度の認知・普及環境性能ラベルに応じた低金利融資制度の創設環境性能ラベルに応じた税制優遇の創設建築物ラベリング制度の認知・普及

2009/03/02 31

Red line indicates options for CO2 reductionGreen line indicates options of non-CO2 reduction (Policies etc.)

建築物ラベリング制度の認知・普及断熱構造住宅の導入促進省エネ建築物の導入促進住宅ラベリングの認証・登録の義務づけ建築物ラベリングの認証・登録の義務づけ

(World)

S-6

IPCC New Scenario(But LCSs are not featured)

Region

Japan Other Countries

Next Step: Asia Low-Carbon Study

[Pol

itica

l]地球

温暖

化対

策地

域推

進計

画

Transfer of Skill, Knowledge, and Models through Capacity Building

National

Provincial

S-6Asia LCS

[Pol

itica

l]環

境モ

デル

都市

Dow

nsca

ling

of

Met

hodo

logy

Dow

nsca

ling

of

Met

hodo

logy

S-3Japan LCS

Local

[Pol

itica

l]環

境モ

デ

Local LCS Future expected (or required) target(Ex.S-6 or others)

Regional Characteristics

Regional Characteristics

(Community)

322009/03/02

Importance on scenario analysis for AsiaIn order to develop the low carbon world, it is important to developmiddle-long term scenarios toward low carbon Asia and to assessvarious policy options in this area.Huge economic activity: Around 30% of global primary energy is consumed in

Win-win strategy: We need strategies to solve both climate change and other global primary energy is consumed in

Asia

Developing countries: Future GHG emissions will drastically increase.

Other issues such as MDGs: Each country has many important issues to be solved –poverty, pollution...

to solve both climate change and other issues in Asia.

Issues to overcome: Biomass is related to energy security and food security.

Diverse Asia: Each country is different –natural resource, culture, industry, lifestyle....

Globalization: Activities in Asia are liked to the global activities.

33

Features of Asia

Masui, T. (2009). Introduction of Advancement of Low-Carbon Society Scenario Studies in Asian Countries, Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 Project Symposium, 12 Feb, 2009 at Tokyo.

2009/03/02

Steps of Low-Carbon Society Scenario Studies in Asian countries

– Clarification of targets to achieve low carbon society and to solve other issues simultaneously in each country/city

– Sharing cross-cutting issues among countries and – Sharing cross-cutting issues among countries and considering strategies toward low carbon society

– Quantitative research applying the integrated assessment models to each country/city

– Developing the consistent low carbon scenarios and Developing the consistent low carbon scenarios and designing the road map to achieve the low carbon society for each country/city

34

Masui, T. (2009). Introduction of Advancement of Low-Carbon Society Scenario Studies in Asian Countries, Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 Project Symposium, 12 Feb, 2009 at Tokyo.

2009/03/02

Thank you

[email protected]

Thank you

model model analanalyyssiiss fforor lloow w ccararbon · pdf file ·...

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