mobility and heterogamy effects sobel’s diagonal reference models wout ultee radboud university...
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MOBILITY AND HETEROGAMY EFFECTS
SOBEL’S DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS
Wout Ultee
Radboud University Nijmegen
Presentation at the Observatoire Sociologique du Changement, Sciences-Po, Paris
June 15 2007
WHAT ?!
SOBEL’S DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS ?!
THE UMPTEENTH
TECHNIQUE OF DATA ANALYSIS ?!
YES, BUT A TECHNIQUE
TO ANSWER QUESTIONS WHICH ARE
BETTER THAN QUESTIONS OF
OLDER GENERATIONS
A SUCCESSION OF FOUR TECHNIQUES OF DATA ANALYSIS IN SOCIAL MOBILITY
RESEARCH :
LIPSET GENERATION PERCENTAGES
DUNCAN GENERATION PATH MODELS
GOLDTHORPE GENERATION LOGLINEAR MODELS
MAYER GENERATION EVENT HISTORY MODELS
THESE TECHNIQUES ARE APPLICABLE IN HETEROGAMY RESEARCH TOO
QUESTIONS OF THE LIPSET GENERATION :
* IF A PERSON HAS MORE EDUCATION THAN ANOTHER PERSON , IS THIS PERSON MORE LIKELY
TO MOVE UP ?
* IF PERSONS HAVE MORE EDUCATION THAN THEIR PARENTS , ARE THEY MORE LIKELY TO BE
UPWARDLY MOBILE ?
* HOW MUCH OF TOTAL MOBILITY IS STRUCTURAL MOBILITY AND HOW MUCH CIRCULATION MOBILITY ?
ACCORDING TO LATER GENERATIONS , THESE QUESTIONS ARE POOR OR
MEANINGLESS
STYLIZED LIPSET GENERATION FACTS :
FOR RAMDOM SAMPLES TAKEN FROM A COUNTRY’S POPULATION
THE CORRELATION OF EDUCATION WITH UPWARD AND DOWNWARD MOBILITY IS
DISAPPOINTINGLY LOW
AND SO IS THE CORRELATION OF
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FATHER’S AND SON’S YEARS OF EDUCATION WITH
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FATHER’S AND SON’S OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE
DUNCAN GENERATION :
QUESTIONS ABOUT MOBILITY AS ONE VARIABLE AND ABOUT DIFFERENCE SCORES IN GENERAL
POSE THE ISSUE POORLY
THESE QUESTIONS UNWITTINGLY INVOLVE FLOOR AND CEILING EFFECTS
AND THEREFORE REGRESSION TOWARDS THE MEAN IS BEING ‘DISCOVERED’
QUESTIONS SHOULD NOT BE ABOUT DIFFERENCE SCORES
BUT ABOUT THEIR COMPONENTS
THE RIGHT QUESTION ACCORDING TO THE DUNCAN GENERATION :
TO WHAT EXTENT DOES A PERSON’S OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE DEPEND NOT ONLY UPON THIS PERSON’S EDUCATION ,
BUT ALSO UPON THE EDUCATION AND OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE OF THIS
PERSON’S FATHER ?
TECHNIQUE TO ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS : PATH MODELS
GOLDTHORPE GENERATION :
IF THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN STRUCTURAL AND CIRCULATION MOBILITY HAS ANY MEANING ,
IT HAS SO AT THE MACRO LEVEL ONLY
NO SOUND ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUE UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN FOUND TO GIVE MEANING TO THE
EQUATION
TOTAL MOBILITY =
STRUCTURAL MOBILITY + CIRCULATION MOBILITY
THE RIGHT QUESTIONS ACCORDING TO THE GOLDTHORPE GENERATION :
HOW HIGH ARE ABSOLUTE MOBILITY RATES ?
HOW HIGH ARE RELATIVE MOBILITY CHANCES ? HOW STRONG IS SOCIAL FLUIDITY AND HOW UNEQUAL ARE
COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES ?
HOW LARGE ARE MARGINAL DIFFERENCES ? HOW UNBALANCED IS THE COMPETITIVE STRUCTURE ?
AND TO WHAT EXTENT ARE COUNTRY DIFFERENCES IN ABSOLUTE MOBILITY
EXPLAINED BY DIFFERENCES IN RELATIVE MOBILITY CHANCES COMPARED WITH
DIFFERENCES IN COMPETITIVE STRUCTURES ?
THE RIGHT EQUATION ACCORDING TO THE GOLDTHORPE GENERATION :
COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES
PLUS COMPETITIVE STRUCTURES
RESULT IN
ABSOLUTE MOBILITY
QUESTIONS ABOUT COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES ARE ANSWERED BY
LOGLINEAR MODELS
MAYER GENERATION :
QUESTIONS LIKE
HOW MUCH SOCIAL FLUIDITY IS THERE IN THE U.K. IN 1972 ?
ARE TOO VAGUE
FLUIDITY REFERS TO THE MOVEMENT OF PERSONS
BETWEEN TWO POINTS IN TIME
THIS SHOWS THAT THE REFERENCE TO 1972 IS
INCOMPLETE
MAYER GENERATION :
QUESTIONS LIKE
IS THERE MORE SOCIAL FLUIDITY IN THE U.K. IN 2000 THAN IN 1980 ?
ARE ALMOST SUPERFLUOUS
QUESTIONS SHOULD NOT BE ABOUT OVERLAPPING POPULATIONS
BUT ABOUT SUCCESSIVE COHORTS
THE RIGHT QUESTION ACCORDING TO THE MAYER GENERATION :
ARE FOR SUCCESSIVE COHORTS
THE CHANCES FOR MOVING UP OR DOWN IN SOME ALWAYS EQUALLY LONG TIME SPAN
NOT ONLY DEPENDENT UPON INDIVIDUAL CHARACTERISTICS LIKE AGE AND EDUCATION
BUT ALSO UPON COHORT AND PERIOD CHARACTERISTICS ?
THESE QUESTIONS ARE TO BE ANSWERED WITH EVENT HISTORY
MODELS
IN THE BEGINNING :
THE APPLICATION OF MODELS THAT DID NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE CONTEXTUAL NATURE OF PART OF THE ORGINALLY INDIVIDUAL DATA
CONTEXTUAL : THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT THE MOMENT OF A POSSIBLE JOB SHIFT
CONTEXTUAL : JOB STRUCTURE AT THE END OF COMPULSORY SCHOOLING
NOWADAYS :
APPLY MULTI-LEVEL EVENT HISTORY MODELS
ARE MAYER GENERATION QUESTIONS FLAWLESS ?
MAYER QUESTIONS EXPLAIN DIFFERENCE SCORES !
IT IS TRUE THAT IF THE START SCORE FOR OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE IS INCLUDED AS A
PREDICTOR IN EVENT HISTORY MODELS ,
ESTIMATES OF PARAMETERS FOR OTHER EFFECTS DO NOT DIFFER FROM THOSE
MODELLING END SCORES
BUT STILL , WHY EXPLAIN DIFFERENCE SCORES RATHER THAN END SCORES ?
FIFTH GENERATION QUESTIONS ?
THE MAYER GENERATION COLLECTED OCCUPATIONAL HISTORIES , BUT MODELLED
SINGLE EVENTS
FIFTH GENERATION QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT CAREERS
IS AN OCCUPATIONAL CAREER A SELF-REINFORCING UPWARD PROCESS ?
WILL A PERSON WHO ONCE MOVED DOWN BE PERMANENTLY SCARRED ?
MERTON’S MATTHEW EFFECTS GO BEYOND BECK, RISK SOCIETY , BAUMAN , LIFE IN FRAGMENTS , SENNETT’S BOOKS
MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE NOT ABOUT MOBILITY
BUT ABOUT CONDITIONS THAT CAUSE PERSONS TO
ATTAIN
HIGHER AND LOWER CLASSES OR BETTER AND
WORSE JOBS
HOW ABOUT QUESTIONS ON THE EFFECTS OF MOBILITY ?
ARE THERE FALSE QUESTIONS ABOUT EFFECTS OF MOBILITY ?
ARE THERE GENERATIONS OF QUESTIONS ON MOBILITY EFFECTS AND HETEROGAMY
EFFECTS ?
YES ,
AND THERE ARE NICE PARALLELS
LIPSET GENERATION PERCENTAGES OF PHENOMENON X FOR CLIMBERS, STAYERS, AND SKIDDERS
DUNCAN GENERATION LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WITH INTERACTION TERMS
SOBEL GENERATION NON - LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS
AGAIN :
TECHNIQUES NO GOALS IN THEMSELVES
NEW TECHNIQUES ANSWER BETTER QUESTIONS
THREE GENERATIONS IN RESEARCH ON MOBILITY AND HETEROGAMY EFFECTS
LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WITH INTERACTION TERMS ARE
MATHEMATICALLY EQUIVALENT TO NON - LINEAR REGRESSION
MODELS
BUT IN THE DUNCAN GENERATION INTERACTION PARAMETERS ARE
DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET
WHEREAS IN THE SOBEL GENERATION PARAMETERS STAND
FOR INTERESTING SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESES
EFFECTS OF MOBILITY AND HETEROGAMY ON WHAT ?
VOTING
MARITAL FERTILITY
DIVISION OF HOUSEHOLD LABOUR
FEMALE LABOUR MARKET PARTICIPATION
VISITING A MUSEUM , CONCERT HALL , THEATER
OTHER CULTURAL ACTIVITIES LIKE READING BOOKS
THE LIPSET GENERATION QUESTION :
ARE CLIMBERS MORE LIKELY THAN STAYERS TO VOTE FOR
THE RIGHT
AND SKIDDERS FOR THE LEFT ?
LIPSET GENERATION RESULTS WERE MIXED
THIS LED TO A POLISHING OF FINDINGS
NEXT TO MOBILITY ,
CLASS OF ORIGIN OR CLASS OF DESTINATION WAS INTRODUCED
AS A CONTROL
THIS COMPOUNDED THE DIFFICULTIES
FLOOR AND CEILING EFFECTS BECAME EASY TO SPOT
LIPSET’S TABLE FOR THE USA IN 1948
PERCENT VOTING REPUBLICAN AFTER OWN CLASS AND CLASS OF ORIGIN
MANUAL NON-MANUAL
ORIGIN MANUAL 20 70
NON-MANUAL 40 60
70 IS MORE THAN 60 : UPWARDLY MOBILE PERSONS OVER-CONFORM
LIPSET COMPARES AN OFF-DIAGONAL WITH A MAIN-DIAGONAL PERCENTAGE
DUNCAN , WHEN EXPLAINING MARITAL FERTILITY , HELD LIPSET GENERATION QUESTIONS TO BE
PREMATURE
THE RIGHT QUESTION ACCORDING TO THE DUNCAN GENERATION IS :
AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
EFFECTS OF PRESENT OCCUPATION AND EFFECTS OF ORIGIN ,
ARE THERE EFFECTS OF MOBILITY AS SUCH ?
DUNCAN ANSWERED THIS QUESTION
WITH LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS
INCLUDING
ON TOP OF MAIN EFFECTS
INTERACTION EFFECTS
THE SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION :
WHAT DO PERSONS WEIGH MORE HEAVILY IN
CHOOSING BETWEEN ACTIVITIES
THEIR ORIGIN OR THEIR DESTINATION?
THEIR OWN GROUP OR THAT OF THEIR PARTNER?
SOBEL HOLDS THAT DUNCAN GENERATION QUESTIONS ARE
IMPRECISE :
THEY PERTAIN TO INTERACTIONS , WITHOUT SPECIFYING IN ADVANCE
THE TYPE OF INTERACTION
SOBEL REJECTS LIPSET GENERATION QUESTIONS
THEY POOL ALL STAYERS
WHEREAS QUESTIONS ABOUT CONFORMITY TO THE NORMS IN A
PERSON’S DESTINATION GROUP AND ABOUT REJECTION OF NORMS IN A
PERSON’S ORIGIN GROUP
IMPLY A COMPARISON OF CLIMBERS AND SKIDDERS WITH TWO SPECIFIC
TYPES OF STAYERS
PERCENT OF WOMEN VOTING LABOUR AFTER OWN CLASS AND CLASS HUSBAND IN BRITAIN
1974 – 1987 ACCORDING TO HEATH & DE GRAAF 1992
OWN
HIGH 2 3 4 LOW TOTAL
HUSBAND HIGH 8 23 14 41 48 20 2 27 32 26 0 22 31 3 33 8 18 25 48 26 4 35 27 57 65 69 61 LOW 46 44 45 77 68 60
TOTAL 20 28 33 60 65 43
DUNCAN READS THIS TABLE FROM THE TWO MARGINALS AND FINDS INDEPENDENT EFFECTS OF
OWN CLASS AND PARTNER’S CLASS
SOBEL BEGINS WITH MAIN DIAGONAL PERCENTGAES AND ASKS WHETHER OFF DIAGONAL PERCENTAGES
ARE IN BETWEEN
DUNCAN’S MARGINAL REFERENCE MODELS
VERSUS
SOBEL’S DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS
SOBEL’S MOST SIMPLE MODEL :
WHATEVER TWO DIAGONAL CELLS ARE CHOSEN
A PERSON ALWAYS WEIGHS OWN CLASS - OR ORIGIN - WITH THE SAME WEIGHT AND CLASS PARTNER - OR DESTINATION - WITH ANOTHER
SOME WEIGHT
WITH BOTH WEIGHTS ADDING UP TO ONE
SOME OLDER ANSWERS TO SOBEL GENERATION QUESTIONS ABOUT MOBILITY
AND HETEROGAMY EFFECTS
IN BRITAIN , FOR FEMALE VOTING THE CLASS OF THE HUSBAND CARRIES MORE WEIGHT THAN THE CLASS
OF THE WIFE IS FOR MALE VOTING
WITH RESPECT TO FATHER - SON MOBILITY FOR THE NETHERLANDS IT WAS FOUND THAT FATHER’S
CLASS CARRIED MORE WEIGHT THAN OWN CLASS
ONE VARIATION ON SOBEL GENERATION QUESTIONS :
PEOPLE ARE QUICK TO ADAPT TO THE NORMS OF THEIR DESTINATION GROUP -
IF THEY MOVE UP
BUT ARE THEY LESS LIKELY TO ADMIT TO THEMSELVES THAT THEY MOVED DOWN ?
ASSIGN WEIGHTS FOR ABOVE MAIN DIAGONAL CELLS WHICH ARE DIFFERENT
FROM WEIGHTS FOR BELOW MAIN DIAGONAL CELLS
ANOTHER VARIATION ON SOBEL GENERATION
QUESTIONS :
OVER - CONFORMITY CAN BE MODELLED BY INCLUDING A
SPECIAL PARAMETER FOR THE CELLS WHERE OVER -
CONFORMITY IS PREDICTED
AFTER USA 1948
NO NEW STRONG CASES OF OVER - CONFORMITY IN VORING
HAVE BEEN FOUND
A SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION :
IS THE DIVISION OF HOUSEHOLD LABOUR
LEAST UNEQUAL WHEN BOTH PARTNERS HAVE THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION ,
MOST UNEQUAL WHEN THEY BOTH HAVE THE LOWEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION ?
AND DO MIXED COUPLES FALL IN BETWEEN ,
OR ARE THERE ‘MACHO MAN’ EFFECTS ?
TABLES FROM VAN BERKEL’S PH.D.
WHO DOMINATES WHEN ?
USING THE FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION 1993
FEMALE SHARE IN DOING THE DIRTY LAUNDRY AFTER EDUCATION WOMAN AND EDUCATION PARTNER IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1993
MAN
LOW MIDDLE HIGH TOTAL
WOMAN LOW 90 89 93 90
MIDDLE 88 87 87 87
HIGH 85 79 80 80
TOTAL 85 87 85 87
HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN OF LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN DO LESS THAN LOWLY EDUCATED MEN
OF LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN
WOMEN WITH HIGH EDUCATION BRING HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN TO DOING THE DIRTY LAUNDRY
FEMALE SHARE IN CLEANING AFTER EDUCATION WOMAN AND EDUCATION PARTNER IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1993
MAN
LOW MIDDLE HIGH TOTAL
WOMAN LOW 84 83 88 84
MIDDLE 79 79 80 79
HIGH 84 72 70 72
TOTAL 83 80 77 81
HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN OF LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN DO LESS THAN LOWLY EDUCATED MEN OF
LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN
WOMEN WITH HIGH EDUCATION BRING HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN TO CLEANING
FEMALE SHARE IN COOKING AFTER EDUCATION WOMAN AND EDUCATION PARTNER IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1993
MAN
LOW MIDDLE HIGH TOTAL
WOMAN LOW 74 73 73 74
MIDDLE 70 69 69 69
HIGH 70 66 63 64
TOTAL 73 71 67 71
WOMEN WITH HIGH EDUCATION BRING HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN TO COOKING
IN DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS THE WEIGHT FOR WOMEN’S EDUCATION IS ONE
THERE ARE SPECIAL EFFECTS
NOTE THAT THE MEASURES FOR THE DIVISION OF HOUSEHOLD
LABOUR REFER TO A COMPOSITE SCORE
IS THIS FIRST GENERATION ERROR OK HERE ?
ONLY IF THE NUMBER OF TIMES AN ACTIVITY IS PERFORMED DOES NOT DIFFER MUCH BETWEEN COUPLES !
ANOTHER SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION :
IS HAVING A PAID JOB FOR WOMEN WITH A PARTNER
MOST LIKELY WHEN BOTH HAVE THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION ,
LEAST LIKELY WHEN BOTH HAVE THE LOWEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION ,
AND IN BETWEEN FOR MIXED COUPLES ?
PERCENT OF WOMEN WITH A PAID JOB DUTCH LABOUR FORCE SURVEY
PARTNER’S EDUCATION
HIGH 2 3 LOW TOTAL
OWN HIGH 79 83 85 83 80
EDUCATION 2 63 72 67 64 68
3 44 49 47 41 47
LOW 28 37 35 27 32
TOTAL 68 63 55 41 60
FOR WOMEN WITH THE HIGHEST EDUCATION ,
HAVING A PARTNER WITH THE HIGHEST EDUCATION
IS A DISINCENTIVE TO A PAID JOB
THE FINAL SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION :
WHEN EXPLAING HIGH CULTURE ACTIVITIES , WHAT WEIGHS HEAVIER ?
RULE OF THUMB FOR THE NETHERLANDS FROM DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS
A PERSON’S OWN EDUCATION WEIGHS FOR ONE HALF
PARTNER’S EDUCATION FOR ONE THIRD
FATHER’S EDUCATION FOR ONE SIXTH
THE 3 - 2 - 1 RULE
COMBINING THE FIRST SERIES OF MACRO QUESTIONS WITH THE SECOND SERIES OF MICRO QUESTIONS
INTO AN NEW MACRO QUESTION :
IS IT ABSOLUTE MOBILITY , SOCIAL FLUIDITY , OR THE COMPETITIVE BALANCE
THAT TIPS ELECTORAL OUTCOMES ?
BACK TO SOMBART :
WHY NO SOCIALIST PARTY IN THE USA ?
BECAUSE OF HIGH SOCIAL MOBILITY !
BUT WHAT KIND OF SOCIAL MOBILITY ?!
IF ALL VOTERS WEIGH CURRENT AND PAST ECONOMIC INTERESTS ,
THEN A MORE FAVOURABLE COMPETITIVE BALANCE MAKES FOR A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF RIGHT - WING VOTES
IF ALL VOTERS WEIGH CURRENT AND PAST STATUS MOTIVES ,
THEN A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF ABSOLUTE MOBILITY - WHETHER UPWARD
OR DOWNWARD - MAKES FOR A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF RIGHT - WING VOTES
DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS AND SKIDDERS ONE
DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS ONE ORIGIN WEIGHT SKIDDERS ONE
DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS AND SKIDDERS 0,8
DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS 0,8 ORIGIN WEIGHT SKIDDERS 0,8
FROM ELECTORAL OUTCOMES TO OVERALL BOOK READING AS THE MACRO
PHENOMENON TO BE EXPLAINED
A COMPARISON OF EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES ?
DOES BOOK READING DECLINE?
AND TO WHAT EXTEND DOES IT DO SO
BECAUSE OF MORE SOCIAL MOBILITY
AND MORE MIXED MARRIAGES?