mobile positioning as a data source for estimation of travel statistics

Overwiew of recent economic developments ESTONIA*
Mobile positioning as a data source for estimation of travel statistics
Jaanus Kroon
4.10.2010 Paris
WPTGS; OECD
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Presentatsiooni teema
Current data sources and main challenges
The idea of mobile positioning and the project of Eesti Pank
Estimation of inbound travellers
Estimation of outbound travellers
Debits and credits
Daily expenditures
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Extra EU border statistics (MIS) Household survey (NSI) (Air)ports statistics (Ports) Travel Agencies’ Survey (NSI)
Extra EU border statistics (MIA) Accomodation Survey (NSI) (Air)ports statistics (Ports) Travel Agencies’ Survey (NSI)
Daily expenditures
Travel Agencies’ Survey (NSI)
Estimation
Estimation
Extra EU border statistics (MIS) Household survey (NSI) (Air)ports statistics (Ports)
Extra EU border statistics (MIA) Accomodation Survey (NSI) (Air)ports statistics (Ports)
Daily expenditures
Border Survey (BoE + NSI) Credit card statistics (BoE)
Pre paid travel agency and hotel services
Household survey (NSI) BoP surveys (BoE)
BoP surveys (BoE)
Estimation
Estimation
Regular Statistical Surveys of border crossing?
Expensive
Installing car-counters on border-roads?
Deriving border-crossing statistics from mobile-phone roaming/positioning?
The best balance in between merits and costs
Methodology needs regular re-estimations
Mobile positioning -registering signals of cellphone usage and location by mobile phone network antennas
When you travel to a foreign country, your mobile phone keeps working via foreign network: you are roaming.
Registering roming activities could be the data source for estimating numbers of travellers and their lenght of stay
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LBS Positum (www.positium.ee)
founded in 2001 in cooperation with geographers, city planners and architects
services: using the idea of mobile positioning and methods for geographical studies and city planning to organize better and safer living, planning the city and sustainable environment
Data source EMT (major of 3 mobile providers in Estonia)
2 procurement contracts for developing models for:
Inbound travel 2008-2009
Outbound travel 2009-2010
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# of travellers ~ # of abroad registered roamed cell phones
Lenght of stay
Border countries: 2 visits 2 and 3 days
Others: 1 visit 8 days
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Nationality according to the country of origin of SIM-card
Differentiation:
Transit travel (airport, transit-road corridors)
Permanent (border) workers and students
One day visitors
“Noise” on borders
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Foreign workers
Transit
Sea ports
Visitors
Tourists
Bases on real statistical data series available up to 2008
Calibration according to currently available border-crossing indicators
(Extra-EU statistics, Sea-ports and airport indirect statistics)
Statistical models for each country or country groups, taking into account…
coverage (only 1 network)
Pre-paid cards & cheap roaming service cards
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Accommodation statistics
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Lenght of stay and the geography
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Number of visits by countries visited
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Destination and transit country
Analyses of the travel pattern according to the lenght of stay and number of countries visited per day
Cross border worker if
Sum of the lenght of days exceeds 30 days
Analyses of final destinations (over the world travellers)
Estimation of outbound travellers (5)
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Number of days by countries visited
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The market share of EMT
Other operators (2, compensation cofficents)
# of non-phone users abroad
Data calibration
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First results
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So far we have…
covered the “hole” in statistics and become the only one institution in Estonia providing border-crossing statistics
been cost effective (data licenses are cheaper than regular border-crossing surveying)
taken advantage of partner scale-effect (one data source, wide range of usage possibilities)
Major questions…
models need to be re-estimated according to changes in economic environment (no real data besides)
developments (competition) on mobile market and ICT
The future of mobile phones vrs Skype?
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CHALLENGE FOR STATISTICS!
Mobile positioning would have much wider possibilities to serve statistics as a data source
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Scientific Articles (not directly about current topic)
Tiru, M., Saluveer E., Ahas, R., Aasa, A. 2009. Web-based monitoring tool for assessing space-time mobility of tourists using mobile positioning data: Positium Barometer. Journal of Urban Technology, 17(1):
Ahas, R. Aasa, A., Roose, A., Mark, Ü., Silm, S. 2008. Evaluating passive mobile positioning data for tourism surveys: An Estonian case study. Tourism Management 29(3): 469–486.
Kuusik, A., Ahas, R., Tiru, M. 2009. Analysing Repeat Visitation on Country Level wirh Passive Mobile Positioning Method: An Estonian Case Study. XVII Scientific Conference on Economic Policy, Estonia 1–3.07.2009 in Tartu and Värska.
Ahas, R., Saluvee, E., Tiru,M. and Silm, S. 2008.Mobile Positioning Based Tourism Monitoring System: Positium Barometer. In: O’Connor, P., Höpken, W. and Gretzel, U. (Eds.), Springer Computer Science: Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism, pp. 475-485.
Ahas, R., Aasa, A., Silm, S., Tiru, M. 2007. Mobile positioning data in tourism studies and monitoring: case study in Tartu, Estonia. In: Sigala, M., Mich, L., Murphy, J. (Eds.), Springer Computer Science: Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism, ISBN: 978-3-211-69564-7, pp. 119-128.
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mobile positioning as a data source for estimation of travel statistics

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