mobile messaging marlet brief - february 2012
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Snapshot of the global mobile messaging space in 2012TRANSCRIPT
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2012 MARKET BRIEFINGBrought to you FREE by Portio Research
Mobile Messaging Futures 2012-2016Analysis and Growth Forecasts for Mobile Messaging
Markets Worldwide: 6th Edition
An introduction to the USD 231 billion worldwide mobile messaging market,SMS, OTT, MMS, mobile e-mail and mobile instant messaging.
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 1
Market Brief 2012 – Mobile Messaging
2 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Portio Research Limited.
Published February 2012 by Portio Research Limited © Copyright 2012.
www.portioresearch.com
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© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 3
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Contents
Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 6
Worldwide Mobile Market ................................................................................................... 7
Subscribers .................................................................................................................................... 7
Penetration .................................................................................................................................... 7 Mobile Messaging Market ................................................................................................... 9
SMS.................................................................................................................................... 10
Spain ........................................................................................................................................... 12
Pakistan....................................................................................................................................... 14 OTT Messaging Services .................................................................................................. 16
Drivers for the Adoption of OTT Messaging Services ..................................................................... 17 MMS ................................................................................................................................... 18
Canada ........................................................................................................................................ 19
Mobile E-mail ..................................................................................................................... 20
Argentina ..................................................................................................................................... 21 Mobile IM ........................................................................................................................... 22
Nigeria ......................................................................................................................................... 23 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 24
Read more ................................................................................................................................... 24
About Mobile Messaging Futures 2012-2016................................................................................. 25
4 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
List of Figures
Figure 1: Comparison of Mobile Messaging Services ................................................................ 6 Figure 2: Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F) .................................. 7 Figure 3: Mobile Messaging Revenue – Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 – 2016F) .................... 9 Figure 4: SMS Traffic and SMS Use per Subscriber per Month – Spain (2009 – 2011) ............. 12 Figure 5: Break-out of SMS Traffic – Spain (In Percent, H1 2011) ............................................ 13 Figure 6: Break-out of SMS Revenue – Spain (In Percent, H1 2011) ....................................... 13 Figure 7: SMS Traffic and SMS Use per Subscriber per Month – Pakistan (2009 – 2011) ......... 15 Figure 8: Drivers of OTT Messaging Services ......................................................................... 17 Figure 9: MMS Traffic – Worldwide (In Billion, 2009 – 2016F) .................................................. 18 Figure 10: MMS Traffic and MMS Use per Subscriber per Year – Canada (2009 – 2011) ........... 19 Figure 11: Mobile E-mail Penetration – Worldwide (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F) ........................... 20 Figure 12: Mobile E-mail Penetration – Argentina (In Percent, 2009 – 2011) ............................. 21 Figure 13: Mobile IM Penetration – Worldwide (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F) ................................. 22 Figure 14: Mobile IM Penetration – Nigeria (In Percent, 2009 – 2011) ........................................ 23
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 5
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
List of Tables
Table 1: Mobile Penetration – Regional (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F) .............................................. 8 Table 2: Growth of SMS – Worldwide (In Billion, 2000 – 2016F) .................................................. 10 Table 3: Messaging Traffic: SMS vs. OTT (In Billion, 2010 – 2016F) ........................................... 16 Table 4: Country’s Contribution to Regional Subscriber Base and MMS Traffic – North America .....
(In Percent, 2011) ........................................................................................................ 19 Table 5: Mobile Messaging contribution to Data Revenues – Regional (In Percent, 2011 & 2016F) ..
.................................................................................................................................... 24
6 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Introduction
In the last year, there has been a huge shift in mobile messaging markets.
One of the biggest themes under discussion in the mobile messaging industry is this issue of
‘the end of SMS’ and the booming rise of Over-the-Top (OTT) messaging apps (or ‘next
generation’ messaging services).
However, hype permeates OTT media reports, and there is much misunderstanding within
the mobile industry about how OTT services are being used, and how popular they are.
In 2011, the worldwide mobile messaging market was worth USD 202 billion. Serious money
indeed. Not least because messaging provides the backbone of mobile operators’ non-voice
revenues.
The following figure compares the five mobile messaging services – SMS, MMS, mobile e-
mail, mobile IM and OTT messaging services – on the basis of four parameters (simplicity,
ease of use, cost and handset compatibility) that take both the demand and supply sides
into account.
Figure 1: Comparison of Mobile Messaging Services
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
SMS MMS
Mobile E-mail Mobile IM
OTT Messaging Services
Simplicity Ease of Use Cost Handset Compatibility
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 7
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Worldwide Mobile Market
Subscribers
At end-2011, worldwide mobile subscribers stood at nearly 6 billion. This subscriber base is
now projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6 percent between
2011 and 2016, and is expected to cross 8 billion by end-2016.
The figure below illustrates subscriber growth worldwide from 2009 to 2016.
Figure 2: Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F)1
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F – Forecasted
The emerging markets of Asia Pacific, and Africa and Middle East, with CAGRs of more
than 7.7 percent and 7.4 percent respectively over 2011–2016, are expected to drive the
growth of the worldwide mobile subscriber base. The Asia Pacific region, including the
giants China and India, is clearly the largest mobile market worldwide. Asia Pacific’s
subscribers constituted 50.7 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base in 2011, while
the second largest contributor was Europe with 18.3 percent.
Penetration
Worldwide mobile penetration reached 86.1 percent at end-2011, and will near 110 percent
by end-2016.
In terms of mobile penetration, Asia Pacific and Africa and Middle East are the only regions
not to have reached the 100 percent mark by the end of 2011. Europe leads with a mobile
penetration exceeding 130 percent; North America and Latin America place second and
third respectively.
1 Note: This market brief is derived from a report that was researched in the fourth quarter of 2011. As such, quoted full year 2011 figures throughout this brief use data collected from the first three quarters of 2011 and estimations for the fourth unavailable quarter.
4,655.8
5,341.4
5,977.8 6,485.5
6,939.1 7,339.6
7,695.8 8,003.1
0
2,100
4,200
6,300
8,400
2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F
Mobile S
ubscri
ber
Base
(I
n M
illion)
Year
8 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
The table below shows regional and worldwide mobile penetration rates for the period 2009-
2016.
Table 1: Mobile Penetration – Regional (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F)2
Region
Mobile Penetration (In Percent)
2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F
Europe 125.1 127.4 131.4 133.6 135.4 136.8 137.8 138.5
Asia Pacific 55.7 67.1 77.6 85.1 92.0 97.9 103.1 107.4
North America
92.1 98.1 102.6 106.7 110.3 113.4 116.0 118.1
Latin America
84.7 93.0 100.4 106.7 110.9 113.5 115.5 116.6
Africa and Middle East
56.1 65.0 71.2 77.1 81.8 85.7 88.9 91.3
Worldwide 68.5 77.8 86.1 92.3 97.7 102.3 106.1 109.2
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
Asia Pacific’s subscribers constituted 50.7 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base
in 2011, while the second largest contributor was Europe with 18.3 percent.
2 Note: Worldwide figures for mobile penetration are the weighted mean averages of the regional mobile subscriber
base and regional population base for all five regions, not the arithmetic mean averages of mobile penetration for the five regions.
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 9
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Mobile Messaging Market
The worldwide mobile messaging market was worth USD 202 billion in 2011. This number is
forecast to rise to USD 310.2 billion by end-2016, at a CAGR of 9 percent between 2011
and 2016. Asia Pacific generated the highest mobile messaging revenue in 2011 and Latin
America produced the least. Among the mobile messaging services3 scrutinised in this
report, SMS yielded the highest revenue for operators in 2011 and mobile IM gathered the
least revenue.
The figure below depicts worldwide mobile messaging revenue during 2009-2016.
Figure 3: Mobile Messaging Revenue – Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 – 2016F)4
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F – Forecasted
In 2011, average messaging ARPU stood at USD 35.7 and is expected to increase for at
least the next four years to reach USD 39.7 in 2015. In 2016, owing to the comparatively
slower growth in worldwide messaging revenue than subscriber numbers, average
messaging ARPU is expected to see a dip, albeit only slight.
3 Note: Revenue forecasts for OTT messaging services have not been included because the OTT market is still too
nascent and many of the services are yet to be monetised. Moreover, there is significant overlap between OTT messaging services and mobile IM services.
4 Note: This market brief is derived from a report that was researched in the fourth quarter of 2011. As such,
quoted full year 2011 figures throughout this brief use data collected from the first three quarters of 2011 and estimations for the fourth unavailable quarter.
148.4 174.9
202.0 231.0
259.0 281.7
298.8 310.2
0
70
140
210
280
350
2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015 F 2016F
Mobile M
essagin
g R
evenue
(I
n U
SD
Billion)
Year
10 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
SMS
SMS still has an amazing future. SMS is not dead. SMS is still the king and will remain so for
some time to come. The only region seeing a serious dip in SMS revenue at all over the next
five years is North America, and that is in some ways because of the mistakes that have
been made over pricing in the last few years.
SMS is a profit powerhouse, and even in those markets forecast to witness some decline,
the market will remain at least ‘as good as it is now’ for a few years yet.
SMS generated the highest revenue in 2011, and SMS revenue is forecast to dominate
worldwide mobile messaging over the next five years to 2016. While SMS made the highest
contribution to worldwide mobile messaging revenue in 2011 with a 63.5 percent share; in
2016, SMS will continue to lead other messaging services, but its revenue share will have
eroded to sub-50 percent.
The table below shows the growth of SMS from 2000 to 2016.
Table 2: Growth of SMS – Worldwide (In Billion, 2000 – 2016F)5
Year SMS Traffic
(In Billion) Year
SMS Traffic
(In Billion)
2000 146.4 2009 5,225.6
2001 218.0 2010 6,834.5
2002 366.0 2011 7,843.7
2003 450.0 2012F 8,599.7
2004 760.6 2013F 9,162.9
2005 1,056.4 2014F 9,443.5
2006 1,662.4 2015F 9,639.3
2007 2,778.0 2016F 9,554.2
2008 3,972.9
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
However, SMS is at its peak. And while the demise of SMS has been greatly exaggerated,
the mobile and wireless community worldwide needs to face the fact that nothing lasts
forever, and no product or service or company stays in place as number one forever.
Look how Nokia has lost its dominant global brand strength, and how Apple has risen; look
how CDs were replaced by MP3s; look how cheques were replaced by credit and debit
cards, which may now possibly be replaced by NFC-enabled smartphones over the next 20
years; and look at how Hotmail gave way to Gmail.
Trends, fashions, favourites, all come and go. SMS will eventually yield to new services.
5 Note: This market brief is derived from a report that was researched in the fourth quarter of 2011. As such, quoted full year 2011 figures throughout this brief use data collected from the first three quarters of 2011 and estimations for the fourth unavailable quarter.
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 11
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
In 2011, worldwide SMS revenue stood at USD 128.2 billion and is forecast to grow at a
CAGR of 3.7 percent to settle at USD 153.6 billion by end-2016. SMS revenue’s year-on-
year (y-o-y) growth slowed down in 2011 compared to 2010’s level due to the falling prices
of SMS, unlimited SMS bundle packs and the growing popularity of OTT messaging
services. SMS is now being clubbed with almost all the plans and packages offered by
mobile network operators (MNOs). During 2011-2016, the SMS revenue growth rate is
expected to subside and turn negative in 2016.
With over 42 percent contribution to worldwide SMS revenue in 2011, Asia Pacific continued
its leading position worldwide in terms of SMS revenue.
Country-level data for SMS in Spain (Europe) and Pakistan (Asia Pacific) follows on the
coming pages.
SMS data for Europe is proving very interesting this year, with several clear trends
emerging. Four of the Western European "Big 5" markets are still showing healthy growth;
Spain – with a recent decline in SMS traffic – is the exception. This makes Spain an
interesting market to look at, because Spain has long been one of the most advanced
markets in Europe, and often what happens in Europe happens in Spain first.
Asia Pacific, the world's largest SMS market, still shows a picture of broad overall growth in
SMS traffic, though there are signs that growth is now slowing. While organic market growth
(increasing numbers of mobile subscribers) is still helping to drive up overall SMS traffic in
the majority of the region’s markets, growth in terms of average-usage-per-subscriber per
month is levelling off across most markets in Asia Pacific.
One market that is recording impressive growth is Pakistan. Here, annual SMS traffic
achieved nearly 40 percent year-on-year growth in 2011. Pakistan’s performance also helps
to highlight the regional variance that occurs across North Africa, the Middle East, and
Central Asia.
12 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Spain
Figure 4: SMS Traffic and SMS Use per Subscriber per Month – Spain (2009 – 2011)
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
19.1
8.6 8.4
29.9
13.0 12.4
0
8
16
24
32
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011
SM
S u
se p
er
Su
bscrib
er
per
Mo
nth
SM
S T
raffic
(In
Bill
ion
)
Year
SMS Traffic SMS per Subscriber per Month
In 2011, Spain’s SMS traffic dropped to 8.4 billion, primarily due to the growing
popularity of OTT messaging services. Spain is a highly advanced country and users
have actively started using data services. In 2010, a swift movement of subscribers
was witnessed from SMS to OTT/next generation messaging services; the trend
continued in 2011.
Consequently, average monthly SMS use per subscriber has declined to 12.4
messages
According to comScore data published in October 2011, the percentage of mobile
subscribers using SMS services in Spain is the lowest among the top five European
countries – those being the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Spain
In Spain, text messages are rarely included in monthly tariff plans and thus SMS is
relatively expensive in the country compared to neighbouring markets
In 2011, Spain recorded a y-o-y decline of 25 percent in New Year text messages
Even though the country’s SMS traffic is witnessing a significant decline, revenue
generated from the A2P SMS segment is showing strong growth. For example, In H1
2011, Telefonica Spain reported y-o-y growth of 23.7 percent in its A2P SMS revenue.
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 13
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Figure 5: Break-out of SMS Traffic – Spain (In Percent, H1 2011)
Source: CMT Spain
Figure 6: Break-out of SMS Revenue – Spain (In Percent, H1 2011)
Source: CMT Spain
51.2%
39.0%
6.9% 2.0% 0.9%
On-Net National SMS Off-Net National SMS SMS Value-added Service
International SMS Roaming SMS
35.5%
33.0%
23.1%
5.9% 2.5%
On-Net National SMS Off-Net National SMS SMS Value-added Service
International SMS Roaming SMS
14 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Pakistan
Annual SMS traffic in Pakistan has shown significant y-o-y growth, and achieved nearly
40 percent growth in 2011 over 2010
Between 2009-2011, SMS traffic grew at a CAGR of more than 55.7 percent to cross
257 billion at end-2011, from 106.1 billion in 2009
Pakistan’s contribution to Asia Pacific’s SMS traffic increased to 6.6 percent in 2011,
even though its contribution to the region’s subscriber base decreased to 3.8 percent
Average monthly SMS use is seeing an upward trend, primarily owing to several SMS
packages being offered by Pakistan’s operators and subscribers’ increased familiarity
with mobile devices and their functionalities
All MNOs have introduced a wide range of attractive SMS-bundle packages. Daily,
weekly, fortnightly and monthly unlimited SMS packages are being offered to
subscribers at very low rates. Nearly 80 percent of total SMS traffic generated in
Pakistan is exchanged using these bundle packages, and the remaining 20 percent is
charged on a flat rate of PKR 1 (USD 0.01) per SMS.
Pakistan’s government makes efforts to control the type of information being shared
using messaging services and social networking sites. This has impacted the growth of
SMS traffic in the country both positively and negatively – depending on the decision
taken by the government and telecommunication regulators.
o For example, the Pakistani government blocked Facebook for two weeks in
May 2010 after a competition page encouraged users to post caricature
drawings of the Prophet Muhammad. This boosted SMS traffic in that month,
with mobile operators recording 5 percent growth in their monthly SMS traffic
because Facebook users shifted to SMS as an alternative medium for
communication.
o In September 2011, Lahore’s high court directed the Pakistan ministry of
information and technology to block access to all the websites, especially
Facebook, spreading religious hatred. While the final decision is still pending, if
implemented, blanket-banned users will seek alternative mediums to message
one another.
o The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) has asked mobile operators
to block all text messages containing offensive words and phrases. On 14
November 2011, the PTA issued a list of unacceptable phrases and more than
1,700 words – some more obvious than others – and requested MNOs to
implement SMS filtering from 21 November 2011 onwards. However, the rule
has been challenged by civil rights groups as being censorship and
contravening the right to freedom of speech. Mobile operators have also
challenged the decision because such a rule is expected to hit SMS traffic
significantly, resulting in lower SMS revenue. Due to the on-going debate and
negotiations between the parties – PTA, civil rights groups and MNOs – the
PTA withdrew the timeframe for the ban and will now impose this after the list
of words is finalised among the parties. Post implementation, MNOs will be
required to submit a monthly briefing to the PTA detailing the number of SMSs
blocked. A fine will be imposed on operators if any SMS containing banned
terminology is allowed. Moreover, operators will have to disconnect the SIM
cards of users who persistently try to send such messages.
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 15
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Figure 7: SMS Traffic and SMS Use per Subscriber per Month – Pakistan (2009 – 2011)
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
106.1
186.5
257.1
94.3
154.3
195.7
0
50
100
150
200
0
70
140
210
280
2009 2010 2011
SM
S u
se p
er
Su
bscrib
er
per
Mo
nth
SM
S T
raffic
(In
Bill
ion
)
Year
SMS Traffic SMS per Subscriber per Month
16 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
OTT Messaging Services
The growth of OTT messaging apps is in an explosive stage, and they are rapidly gaining in
popularity, though as yet, they are not generating any significant revenues. Currently, the
majority of OTT services are free, or ‘almost free’.
Mobile Internet is a prerequisite for these services and they are basically a mix of
messaging-based mobile applications, device/OS specific messaging services, social
networking IM clients and Internet messaging portals.
OTT messaging traffic spiked from 2009 to 2010, and this volume growth continued on to hit
3.5 trillion messages in 2011.
With the ever increasing uptake of smartphones and mobile data services, Portio Research
forecasts this growth to continue at a CAGR of 42.2 percent and reach 20.3 trillion by end-
2016 – a staggering number which Portio believes is still extremely conservative.
However, this forecast does not mean that OTT messaging will cannibalise over 20 trillion
text messages.
Portio Research sees OTT and SMS traffic growing side by side, synergistically, as the
overall volume of mobile P2P messaging increases dramatically.
It seems OTT may effectively slow down the growth of SMS over the next few years, but
little ‘cannibalisation’ will occur in the short term.
Portio believes that as more new messaging mediums become available, so consumers
adopt the new ways alongside the old ways and communicate more and more. Analyzing
combined SMS and OTT messaging traffic, we forecast that traffic will increase from over 11
trillion messages in 2011 to 29.8 trillion messages in 2016. The table below depicts this.
Table 3: Messaging Traffic: SMS vs. OTT (In Billion, 2010 – 2016F)
Worldwide
Traffic (In Billion)
2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F
SMS Traffic 6,834.5 7,843.7 8,599.7 9,162.9 9,443.5 9,639.3 9,554.2
OTT Traffic 1,297.1 3,491.6 5,846.2 8,993.7 12,682.1 16,426.1 20,293.1
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
Portio spoke to a number of key messaging industry players while researching this report,
and most broadly agreed that OTT services are not ‘instant SMS killers’.
Clearly OTT services are a significant new category, with lots of growth ahead. However, for
the foreseeable future, Portio Research believes they still do not pose a significant threat to
SMS at a worldwide level.
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 17
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Drivers for the Adoption of OTT Messaging Services
Figure 8: Drivers of OTT Messaging Services
Source: GSMA and Portio Research Ltd.
Smartphone
Penetration
Rising smartphone penetration will definitely provide a boost to the OTT messaging user base
Pricing
Most OTT messaging services are either free or almost free, which is a very inviting proposition for users. Greg Woock, the Chief Executive of Pinger, commented: “It always comes down to the economics. Free is a compelling price point.”
Popularity of Mobile
Applications
The majority of OTT messaging services are marketed in the form of mobile apps
Expanding
Ecosystem OTT messaging services are extending the messaging ecosystem to various devices such as iPod Touch and tablets
Brand
Strength
Some services like BBM or Apple iMessage are being used because of the associated brands. However, they are also pivotal in increasing brand loyalty and awareness.
Withdrawal of messaging
bundles
Some of the actions of MNOs have also paved the way for the uptake of OTT messaging services. For example: in the US, AT&T has withdrawn capped messaging bundles and offers only two messaging plans to subscribers: an unlimited messaging plan for USD 20, or a usage based SMS plan at USD 0.20 per SMS. This has forced medium-to-low texting users to look for other cheaper options.
Increasing data network
coverage
As a result of the investments and efforts made by MNOs, data services are now available to ever more mobile subscribers. This in turn increases the accessibility of OTT messaging services among mobile subscribers.
Initiatives taken by
MNOs
In order to tap the popularity of OTT messaging services, a few MNOs have launched their own OTT apps. This will enable MNOs to completely own the revenue benefits from OTT messaging services beyond just the regular data charges. It will also help them to increase their subscribers’ loyalty.
18 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
MMS
Around 207 billion MMS were generated in 2011, representing a y-o-y growth rate of nearly
6 percent. Traffic is now forecast to reach close to 277 billion by end-2016, after increasing
at a CAGR of 6 percent during 2011-2016. The next figure shows worldwide MMS traffic
during 2009-2016.
Figure 9: MMS Traffic – Worldwide (In Billion, 2009 – 2016F)
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F – Forecasted
Launched after the initial success of SMS to deliver multimedia content, MMS has until
recently been the second greatest revenue generating non-voice service. However, in 2011,
mobile e-mail outperformed MMS in revenue terms.
Despite stiff competition, our forecasts show that MMS will generate total revenue of USD
183.2 billion over the years 2012-2016.
MMS growth is slowly easing off. By the end of the forecast period in this report, growth in
MMS traffic and MMS revenues will have almost levelled off completely.
But we must still recognise growth. We are not forecasting decline, just decline in growth.
MMS still generates in excess of USD 30 billion per annum and both traffic and revenues
are expected to continue growing every year for the next five years.
Country-level data for MMS in Canada (North America) follows on the next page.
169.1
195.7 207.2
228.4 245.9
259.1 270.3 276.8
0
100
200
300
2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F
MM
S T
raff
ic
(In B
illion)
Year
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 19
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Canada
While annual MMS use per subscriber reached 36.2 in Canada in 2011, the figure for the US market was 178.6 – after a near 6 percent y-o-y decrease. North America’s trends are majorly affected by performance in the US. This is evident from the mere 0.3 percent growth in MMS traffic in North America in 2011, even though Canada registered growth of 10.6 percent in 2011; Canada’s impact on the growth of regional MMS traffic is very minimal. The table below drives this point home.
Table 4: Country’s Contribution to Regional Subscriber Base and MMS Traffic – North
America (In Percent, 2011)
Country Contribution to Subscriber
Base (In Percent, 2011) Contribution to MMS Traffic
(In Percent, 2011)
Canada 7.33 1.60
The US 92.67 98.4
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
Figure 10: MMS Traffic and MMS Use per Subscriber per Year – Canada (2009 – 2011)
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
729.2 831.2
919.6
32.8 34.8
36.2
0
8
16
24
32
40
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2009 2010 2011
MM
S u
se p
er
Su
bscrib
er
per
Year
MM
S T
raffic
(In
Mill
ion
)
Year
MMS Traffic MMS per Subscriber per Year
The Canadian MMS market grew by 10.6 percent in 2011
MMS use per subscriber per year increased y-o-y by over 4.1 percent in 2011 to
exceed 36 MMS
By end-2010, Canadian operators covered over 90 percent of the population with their
advanced networks to support and enhance the multimedia messaging experience
20 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Mobile E-mail
Mobile e-mail outperformed MMS for the first time in revenue-terms in 2011, making it the
second most successful mobile messaging service based on revenues generated
worldwide.
The worldwide mobile e-mail user base stood at 669.5 million at end-2011, representing
year-on-year growth of over 41 percent. By end-2016, Portio projects that the mobile e-mail
user base will cross 2.4 billion, growing at a CAGR of 29.4 percent during 2011-2016.
Mobile e-mail generated USD 32.7 billion in revenue worldwide in 2011, and this figure is
expected to break USD 75 billion by end-2016, after growing at a CAGR of over 18 percent
during 2011-2016.
Obviously mobile e-mail has gained greatest acceptance in the enterprise sector, however
this picture is starting to change as smartphone penetration deepens.
Consumers are increasingly using mobile e-mail too, thanks to advanced handsets and
broader availability of high speed mobile networks. However, opinion among the vendor
community is somewhat split on the uptake issue. While everyone we spoke to agrees that
mobile e-mail has mostly been an enterprise sector service up until now, some vendors
believe consumer mobile e-mail is taking off, and others think it will remain largely an
enterprise service.
We believe mobile e-mail will increase in popularity in the consumer segment, existing
alongside SMS, OTT services and social networking. There is so much messaging traffic on
social networking sites, and so much rapidly-exchanged ‘chatter’ on IM and OTT services,
that important messages can easily get lost or missed and we believe consumers will use e-
mail alongside these other services as a way of keeping the more important messages
separate from the ‘daily noise’.
Country-level data for mobile e-mail in Argentina (Latin America) follows on the next page.
Figure 11: Mobile E-mail Penetration – Worldwide (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F)
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F – Forecasted
7.2% 8.9%
11.2%
14.3%
17.9%
21.8%
26.0%
30.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F
Mo
bile
E-m
ail
Pen
etr
atio
n
(In
Perc
en
t)
Year
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 21
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Argentina
Figure 12: Mobile E-mail Penetration – Argentina (In Percent, 2009 – 2011)
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
4.0
6.6
9.3
0
2
4
6
8
2009 2010 2011
Mobile
E-m
ail
Penetr
atio
n
(In P
erc
ent)
Year
Just 9.3 percent of Argentinean mobile subscribers were using mobile e-mail services
at end-2011, even though smartphones and multimedia phones represented 60 percent
of the handset market
As of end-September 2011, 3G subscribers formed 14.7 percent of the total mobile
subscriber base
MNOs continue to push data services in the country: Claro Argentina has launched
Internet packs for varying data usage levels (unlimited, 512 MB, 200 MB, 100 MB and
25 MB); and Telecom Personal has launched Internet packs based on duration and
data usage (1 GB in one day, 2 GB in two days and 3 GB in a week). This variety in
Internet plans gives greater flexibility and choice to subscribers.
22 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Mobile IM
The boundary between OTT messaging services and mobile IM services is getting blurred.
Quite often, people use the two interchangeably and fail to understand which service should
fall under which category.
OTT messaging service users and mobile IM users do have a large overlap; however, OTT
service users availing messaging mobile apps that deliver messages as SMS/MMS
(iMessage, Jaxtr for example) do not form part of mobile IM users. Similarly, all mobile IM
users who use SMS to access IM portals do not constitute OTT messaging service users.
Instant Messaging is constantly growing, and in a small way eroding some SMS market
share, but IM uptake is hampered by the broad array of walled-garden services and the lack
of interoperability among those services. Also, until recently, low smartphone penetration
and low 3G penetration have also been barriers to adoption.
Mobile IM generated the lowest revenue in the mobile messaging market in 2011 – but it will
surpass MMS revenue by end-2016.
In 2011, mobile IM users accounted for 7.9 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base.
This penetration is projected to rise to 30.9 percent by end-2016.
Mobile IM generated worldwide revenues of over USD 10 billion in 2011, representing y-o-y
growth of nearly 50 percent. Annual mobile IM revenue is forecast to near USD 43 billion by
end-2016, growing at a CAGR of 33.2 percent during 2011-2016.
Country-level data for mobile IM in Nigeria (Africa and Middle East) follows overleaf.
Figure 13: Mobile IM Penetration – Worldwide (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F)
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F – Forecasted
4.2% 5.7%
7.9%
10.9%
14.6%
19.2%
24.6%
30.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F
Mo
bile
IM
Pen
etr
atio
n
(In
Perc
en
t)
Year
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 23
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Nigeria
Figure 14: Mobile IM Penetration – Nigeria (In Percent, 2009 – 2011)
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
1.8
2.9
3.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
2009 2010 2011
Mobile
IM
Penetr
atio
n
(In P
erc
ent)
Year
Mobile IM remains in its early stages of adoption and development within Nigeria
MTN Nigeria slashed its BlackBerry Social and messaging bundle plans to provide its
BlackBerry users with unlimited access to social networking sites and instant
messaging at cheaper rates
In February 2011, Nedjma partnered with Palringo to launch a nationwide affinity-based
mobile IM network
Nigerian mobile IM penetration was approaching 4 percent at end-2011
24 © 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
Conclusion
Messaging will continue to be vitally important to MNOs around the world. The contribution
messaging makes to total MNO data revenues is actually set to grow over the next 5 years,
as other services suffer greater marginalisation and messaging holds as a profitable
business. Messaging is far from losing its appeal – it’s set to continue to be ever more
significant.
As the next table shows, the contribution of mobile messaging revenues to worldwide data
revenue is still more than 65 percent and is expected to reach 66.4 percent in 2016.
Table 5: Mobile Messaging contribution to Data Revenues – Regional (In Percent, 2011 &
2016F)
Region Mobile Messaging contribution to Data Revenues (In Percent, 2011)
Mobile Messaging contribution to Data Revenues (In Percent, 2016F)
Europe 59.0 62.5
Asia Pacific 66.6 68.2
North America 60.1 44.8
Latin America 53.9 83.6
Africa and Middle East
63.9 73.0
Worldwide 65.6 66.4
Source: Portio Research Ltd
Read more
Portio Research has been tracking the worldwide mobile messaging market since 2003.
This market brief is derived from the findings of the sixth report in our flagship mobile
messaging series (Mobile Messaging Futures 2012-2016).
If you have any questions or if we can be of any assistance to you, please contact us by e-mail: [email protected] or phone: +44 (0)1249 656964 Portio Research Ltd is an independent UK-based research company, specialising in the mobile and wireless sector. Portio is focused on providing high quality, data-centric reports based on hard facts and proven numbers, rather than hype and speculation. www.portioresearch.com
© 2012, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 25
Market Brief 2012 - Mobile Messaging
About Mobile Messaging Futures 2012-2016
Portio Research Ltd is a UK-based research company focussing on the mobile space, providing reports, handbooks, directories and database products. If you have any questions or if we can be of any assistance to you, please contact us by e-mail: [email protected] Copyright 2012. Portio Research Limited 2012
www.portioresearch.com
Mobile Messaging Futures 2012-2016
Analysis and Growth Forecasts for Mobile Messaging Markets Worldwide: 6th Edition
Complete with groundbreaking five-year OTT user and traffic forecasts, the sixth edition of our best selling messaging report is now available to order. This new edition is packed with detailed market analysis, traffic and revenue forecasts, and comes with new sections on SMS hubbing, and mobile marketing and advertising. This massive 376-page market study gives you all the data you need for SMS, OTT messaging, MMS, mobile e-mail and mobile IM markets worldwide, and includes a BONUS Executive Summary presentation. With essential insight into the future of SMS and OTT within a wider market that will be worth USD 310 billion by end-2016, this is one of the most detailed and popular reports ever written on the worldwide mobile messaging market. Please click here for more details. Condensed Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Worldwide Mobile Market Chapter 3: Mobile Messaging Market Chapter 4: SMS Chapter 5: SMS Hubbing Chapter 6: Mobile Marketing and Advertising Chapter 7: OTT Messaging Services Chapter 8: MMS Chapter 9: Mobile E-mail Chapter 10: Mobile IM Chapter 11: Summary and Conclusions Chapter 12: Appendices (includes full glossary of terms) A complete Table of Contents with a full list of the 367 Figures and Tables is available online here; a product brochure is available here.