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TRANSCRIPT
Sunrise Communications Group AG
Investor Presentation, September 2015
Disclaimer
This document and any materials distributed in connection herewith (including any oral statements) (together, the “Presentation”) do not constitute or form a part of, and should not be construed as, an offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities, and neither this Presentation nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever.
The information contained in this Presentation has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. None of Sunrise Communications Group AG, its subsidiaries or any of their respective employees, advisers, representatives or affiliates shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this Presentation. The information contained in this Presentation is provided as at the date of this Presentation and is subject to change without notice.
Statements made in this Presentation may include forward-looking statements. These statements may be identified by the fact that they use words such as “anticipate”, “estimate”, “should”, “expect”, “guidance”, “project”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, and/or other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with, among other things, any discussion of results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies or developments in the industry in which we operate. Such statements are based on management’s current intentions, expectations or beliefs and involve inherent risks, assumptions and uncertainties, including factors that could delay, divert or change any of them. Forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation regarding trends or current activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. Actual outcomes, results and other future events may differ materially from those expressed or implied by the statements contained herein. Such differences may adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein and may result from, among other things, changes in economic, business, competitive, technological, strategic or regulatory factors and other factors affecting the business and operations of the company. Neither Sunrise Communications Group AG nor any of its affiliates is under any obligation, and each such entity expressly disclaims any such obligation, to update, revise or amend any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this Presentation.
It should be noted that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Please also note that interim results are not necessarily indicative of full-year results.
2© Sunrise Sep’2015
Sunrise – leading fully integrated challenger in Switzerland
Sources: Company reporting, Swisscom and Orange quarterly reports, Swisscable press release Notes:1 OpFCF is defined as Adjusted EBITDA – CAPEX. Higher figure assuming normalised CAPEX at 11% of revenue (excluding voice hubbing)2 Market share including prepaid customers based on the 12-month activity rule, all segments; Salt. market shares based on Sunrise estimates as no subscriber number published3 Based on revenues excluding voice hubbing4 Adjusted EBITDA, excluding one-off opex
Fully integrated Swiss telecommunication provider
Key financials (CHFm)H1’15 LTM
• Present in affluent and quality focused Swiss market
• Diversified company set-up
• Fully integrated player benefiting from cross-selling
• Serving residential, business, and wholesale customers
• Strong multi-brand portfolio
• Competitive network infrastructure with own mobile and fiber based backbone network
• Listed at the SIX Swiss Stock Exchange with 75% free float
Leading challenger
Mobile network share Q2’15 2 Fixed BB market share Q2’15 TV market share Q2’15
Broadband / TV
22.7Margin3 (%) 33.7 15.4
Mobile (pre & postpaid)
Landline telephony (incl hubbing)
14
24%
66%
Revenues
2,064
10%
294
642
OpFCF
432
EBITDA
9%16%
Others
54%
21%
Swisscom
Sunrise
upc cablecom
41%
29%
Others 27%
upc cablecom
3%
Swisscom
Sunrise
55%
18%
Salt.
27%
Swisscom
Sunrise
© Sunrise Sep’2015 3
Sunrise - delivering cash flows and dividends
Multiple growth levers
• Leveraging the different growth levers well on track
• Strong customer intake in mobile postpaid in Q2’15
• Q2’15 internet growth accelerated with TV continuing strongly
Ca
sh
flow
gro
wth
• Progressive dividend policy
• At least CHF 135 million3 dividend for 2015 paid in 2016
• At least 65% eFCF4 pay-out from 2016 onwards
• Further excess cash distribution when leverage target of ~2.5x net debt/EBITDA (Q2’15: 2.7x) is reached
Improving margins
FCF upside from CAPEX reduction
FCF upside from lower interests and
NWC
• Track record of adj. EBITDA margin improvement
• 2011-14 margin up 30-40 bps on Ø
• Q2’15 with 160 bps improvement YoY
• Room for further efficiencies
• Digitalization, simplification of products and processes
• Substantial one-off investments in network completed
• 2011-14 with above CHF1.0 billion total investments 1
• Significant CAPEX reductions under way
• CAPEX 2015 of CHF 270-280 million (down ca. CHF 80 million) with 2016 expected to be CHF 220-230 million
• Strongly decreased cash interest expenses YoY
• CHF 90-100 million for 2015 down from > CHF 200 million with further CHF 40 – 50 million decrease in 2016
• NWC supported by CHF100 million factoring agreement
• Whereof CHF 57 million used in Q2’15
Attractive shareholder returns
Source: Company reportingNotes:1 Investments mainly into network and excluding mobile license payments2 Normalised CAPEX of ~11% of revenues (excl. hubbing) reflecting CAPEX-light last-mile access strategy in landline 3 Equalling CHF 3 dividend per share4 EBITDA – CAPEX – delta net working capital adjusted for monetisation of Freedom receivables – IRUs payments – interests – taxes (pre spectrum licence payments)
© Sunrise Sep’2015 4
Multiple investments in fundamentals to drive subscriber momentum
Customer experience
Innovativeoffering
● Freedom mobile tariff since Q2’14: handset and service contracts separated, no fixed contract duration
● Sunrise Home landline portfolio launched in Q3’14; internet speeds increased to up to 1 Gbit/sec in Q3’15
● New Sunrise Smart TV to be launched in November 2015
● Cross selling via convergence offers
● Mobile network quality significantly improved; LTE coverage target for end of 2015 is 95%
● >CHF 1 billion CAPEX between 2011-2014
● CAPEX-light landline access strategy based on attractive wholesale agreements
● Introduction of NPS in 2013 with closed loop feedback process leading to strong improvements
● Customer Care accessibility 90%; first time call resolution 82% 1)
● Bilanz 2) rating shows Sunrise in front of Swisscom, Salt and upc
● Significant own retail network with above 90 shops in Switzerland
Awardednetwork
● Rebranding in Q2’14 pushing corporate values fairness, transparency, and customer orientation
● Roger Federer acting as brand ambassador since Q4’14, perfectly matching Sunrise corporate values
Brand awareness
Note:1 As per August 20152 Residential telecom service providers; Bilanz magasin 18/2015 4.-17. September 2015
© Sunrise Sep’2015 5
Sunrise BILANZ Telecom Ranking 2015
Salt
© Sunrise Sep’2015
Source: Bilanz 18/2015; 4.-17. September 2015
6
Sunrise BILANZ Telecom Ranking 2015 (continued)
© Sunrise Sep’2015
Source: Bilanz 18/2015; 4.-17. September 2015In each product category (Mobile, Internet, TV and Fixed voice) five customer relevant criteria have been rated on a scale from 1-lowest and 6-highest
17
23Mobile
Internet
TV
Fixed Voice
Sunrise Swisscom upc
Mobile experience Full service (quad-play) experience
3
5
Quality
Innovation
PriceFlexibility
Support
Sunrise Swisscom Salt
Sunrise with best results of «big providers» in Bilanz telecom ranking 2015 for the residential market
7
Solid subscriber momentum in Q2’15
15
11
Q2’14 Q3’14
12
113
14
115
Q2’15
21
19
3
Q1’15
14
12
2
Q4’14
16
16
0
Q1’14
17
11
6
Q4’13
25
Primary
Secondary
Postpaid mobile quarterly net adds (‘000)
Q4’13
-28-48
-3-13
-55
-6
-31
Q2’15Q1’15Q4’14Q3’14Q2’14Q1’14
Prepaid mobile quarterly net adds (‘000)
Free SIM Exit
Internet quarterly net adds (‘000)
Q4’13 Q2’14 Q3’14 Q4’14Q1’14 Q1’15 Q2’15
2
-8-6
5
-10
1-5
Churn LTM (%)
Q1’15
14.4%14.9%
Q2’15
Postpaid mobile
Q1’15
15.4%17.4%
Q2’15
Landline
• Postpaid net adds (strongest quarter since Q4’13) accelerated despite competitor moves
• Successful Yallo postpaid introduction
• “Share data” concept has accelerated secondary SIM adoption
• Prepaid net adds recovering to normalized run rates following exit of free SIM business
• Internet growth improved
• IPTV net adds on stable run rate
• Improved Churn supported by NPS and churn initiatives
© Sunrise Sep’2015 8
Lower Q2’15 revenue largely offset by cost efficiencies
524
Q2’14
- 36(-7%)
Q2’15
488
1) Total adjustments to reported EBITDA include out-of-period income and expenses, such as prior year related events, non recurring and/or non operating events and cost related to share-based payment.
Q2’15
155
Q2’14
-3(-2%)
158
34.2%
32.6%
Margin (excl. hubbing)
94 88
7670
157
Q2’15
-13(-8%)
Q1’15
170
Non-commercial
Commercial
Revenue (CHFm) Adjusted OPEX 1 (CHFm)
Adjusted EBITDA 1 (CHFm)
• FX -> less low margin hardware & hubbing revenues
• Structural declines in
• Prepaid mobile and landline retail
• Roaming revenues following tariff adjustments
• Lower service revenue in mobile postpaid due to
• Migration effects (Freedom tariff introduction)
• Change in value mix
• Normalized marketing expenses (within commercial)
• Efficiency initiatives (within non-commercial)• Q2 revenue headwinds largely compensated by cost efficiencies
• FY15 guidance: Cost efficiencies to offset low-to-mid single digit revenue decline, leading to YoY comparable adj. EBITDA
© Sunrise Sep’2015 9
Becoming simpler & more digital
• Supporting better customer experience
• Simplification is a prerequisite for digitalization
• Enabling retirement of costly legacy applications & infrastructure
Digitalization
Simplification of products
and processes
• Complying with more and more online centric expectations
• Strengthen customer relations
• Further improve cost to serve
CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING
ONLINE CENTRIC…
… AND SUNRISE NEEDS TO BECOME SIMPLER AND MORE
DIGITAL
“Average number of times people check their phone daily” 150
90“Average minutes spent on
phones daily”
Data traffic growth
© Sunrise Sep’2015 10
Equity free cash flow acceleration
120
63
(12)
57
15
Q2’15 eFCF
FactoringQ2’15 eFCF before
Factoring
Δ NWC (excl.
factoring) & Δ other
Δ CAPEX
(7)
Δ Interests
67
Q2’14 eFCF
© Sunrise Sep’2015 11
Upside potential to eFCF
~305
Reduced interest costs
~170
Capex normalization
~135
Illustrative upside potential to eFCF1 (CHFm) Strong YoY increase in eFCF in Q2’15 (CHFm)
Notes:1 eFCF defined as: EBITDA – capex – delta net working capital adjusted for monetisation of Freedom receivables – IRUs payments – interests – taxes (pre spectrum licence payments)
Based on 2014 cash interests of CHF 225 million and Capex of CHF 356 million
© Sunrise Sep’2015
Multiple growth levers
• Q2’15 with strong subscriber momentum
• Value conversion more challenging
• FX, structural telecoms pressures (prepaid, retail voice), Freedom tariff introduction, value mix
Ca
sh
flow
gro
wth
• Progressive dividend policy
• At least CHF 135 million1 dividend for 2015 paid in 2016
• At least 65% eFCF2 pay-out from 2016 onwards
• Further excess cash distribution when leverage target of ~2.5x net debt/EBITDA (Q2’15: 2.7x) is reached
Improving margins
FCF upside from CAPEX reduction
FCF upside from lower interest and
NWC
• Revenue headwinds largely offset by improving margins
• Room for further efficiencies
• Around CHF 80 million YoY CAPEX reduction in FY15
• Further decrease of CHF 40–50 million, down to CHF 220-230 million, expected in 2016
• Significantly reduced interest expenses in Q2’15
• Further upside from CHF 40–50 million YoY interest reduction in 2016, leading to ca. CHF 50 million interest expenses in 2016
• Increased use of receivables factoring facility in Q2’15
Attractive shareholder returns
Source: Company reportingNotes:1 Equalling CHF 3 dividend per share2 EBITDA – CAPEX – delta net working capital adjusted for monetisation of Freedom receivables – IRUs payments – interests – taxes (pre spectrum licence payments)
Sunrise on track to deliver cash flow and dividend returns
12
Q&A
© Sunrise Sep’2015 13