mo end use analysis 2013 - molybdenum › mf › agm › 2013 › papers › 8--markus-moll.pdfcpi /...

© Copyright SMR GmbH 2013

http://www.smr.at

Mo End Use Analysis 2013

First / End Use and Focus on Oil & Gas

September 2013

© SMR GmbH

http://www.google.at/imgres?imgurl=http://www.atlantachimneydoctor.com/images/products/liners1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.atlantachimneydoctor.com/services/re-liners.htm&usg=__fk4kJUY3-9MSWn5nnLkYCzIvtwI=&h=436&w=239&sz=34&hl=de&start=3&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=gciwAFRRToQqHM:&tbnh=126&tbnw=69&prev=/images?q=Stainless+Chimney+Liners&um=1&hl=de&tbs=isch:1


http://www.smr.at


http://www.smr.at - 1 -

SE

RV

ICE

S /

CO

NF

ER

EN

CE

S

MA

RK

ET

RE

SE

AR

CH

L

OC

AT

ION

Type of Research Products Steel Grades

Single

Client

85 %

Multi

Client

15 %

Long

Products

50 %

Flat

Products

50 %

Stainless

Steel

70 %

Tool Steels,

Eng. Steels,

Nickel Alloys &

Carbon Steels

30 %

OU

R T

EA

M

O. Spaltmann B. Blitz T. Windberger

E. Pfeifer

P. Moll M. Moll W. Lipp

S. Posch

A. Racu

R.-P. Hammerle U. Weirather

A. Sikman

I. Spaltmann Joy Tio

W. Bulla B. Hunter Jo Zhu W. Lee

The

‘Moly Squad‘

The

‘Oil & Gas

Squad‘

Enduse Focused

Single-Client Research

www.smr.at

Multi-Client Projects &

Stainless Steel Seminars

www.steel-intelligence.com

Conferences

9th Asian

Stainless Steel

Conference

Hong Kong

June ‘14

13th International

Stainless & Special

Steel Summit

Istanbul, Turkey

September ’14

in association with

28th Stainless &

Its Alloys

Conference

Chicago, USA

September ’14

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.amm.com/


http://www.smr.at

1. Supply and Demand

2. Mo First Use 2012

3. Analysis of Primary Mo and Mo in Scrap

4. Mo End Use 2012

5. Trends and Forecast

Content

- 2 -


http://www.smr.at

Regional Primary Mo Production / Demand 2010 - Q1/13 (in Mo Content) Oversupply in the second Half of 2012 – Substantial Production Drop (destocking) in Q1/13

* excluding spent catalysts

- 3 -

Q1/13 vs

Q1/12

Q1/13 vs

Q4/12

North America 78,6 83,0 19,5 19,4 19,9 21,2 79,9 21,0 -4% 8% -1%

South America 52,5 58,8 12,7 14,3 12,9 12,4 52,3 12,3 -11% -4% -1%

China 72,5 80,3 23,0 25,5 22,3 23,1 93,9 18,3 17% -20% -21%

Other 15,7 14,3 3,7 3,7 3,9 3,6 15,0 4,3 5% 15% 18%

Total 219,3 236,5 58,9 62,9 59,0 60,3 241,1 55,9 2% -5% -7%

Q3 2012Q2 2012Q1 201220112010Region2012 vs.

2011

Production * (in '000 metric t - Mo content)

Change (%)

Q1 20132012Q4 2012

Q1/13 vs

Q1/12

Q1/13 vs

Q4/12

Europe 58,7 67,5 17,2 15,3 14,8 14,3 61,5 16,1 -9% -6% 13%

USA 23,2 26,1 6,7 6,4 6,4 5,8 25,3 5,9 -3% -12% 1%

Japan 22,8 23,9 6,2 6,3 6,1 6,2 24,7 6,4 3% 4% 4%

China 68,1 80,6 15,9 25,4 22,3 22,0 85,6 17,5 6% 10% -20%

CIS 9,7 10,3 2,4 2,3 2,5 2,5 9,7 2,5 -5% 4% 2%

Other 25,2 28,5 7,9 7,9 7,2 7,2 30,1 7,2 6% -9% 0%

Total 207,6 236,8 56,2 63,6 59,3 57,9 237,0 55,6 0% -1% -4%

Up- / Destocking 11,7 0,4- 2,7 0,7- 0,4- 2,4 4,0 0,3

Q4 2012 2012 Q1 20132010 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012Change (%)

Use * (in '000 metric t - Mo content)

Region2012 vs.

2011


http://www.smr.at




4. Mo End Use 2012


Content

- 4 -


http://www.smr.at

Engineering Steels 36%

Stainless Steels 26%

Chemicals 11%

Foundries 7%

Tool Steels 11%

Nickel Alloys

5%

Mo-Metal 4%

First Use of Mo in- and excluding Mo in Scrap - 2012

- 5 -

Mo First Use

incl. Mo in Scrap

Mo First Use

only Primary Mo

Engineering steels 43%

Stainless Steels 21%

Chemicals 12%

Foundries 8%

Tool Steels

8%

Nickel Alloys

3%

Mo-Metal 5%

321kt 237kt


http://www.smr.at




4. Mo End Use 2012


Content

- 6 -


http://www.smr.at

101.330

51.030

18.140

28.860

19.710

6.070 11.880

15.900

33.400

17.840 3.500

4.550

9.000 230

-

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

Constructional Eng. Steel

Stainless Steel Alloy Tool Steel / HSS

Chemicals Cast Iron Super Alloys Mo-Metal

Mo

Un

its

[ t

on

nes

]

Mo in Scrap

Primary Mo

Mo including Mo in Scrap 2012

Assumption: Scrap Share has increased to 26%, highest ratio at Super Alloys and ATS/HSS

Scrap Ratio:

14%

Scrap Ratio:

40%

Scrap Ratio:

50% Scrap Ratio:

11% Scrap Ratio:

19% Scrap Ratio:

60%

Total Scrap Ratio:

26%

Total Mo in Scrap:

~84,000 kt

Scrap Ratio:

2%

Remarks: Use of Spent

Catalysts for Catalyst

Production (Chemicals) higher

than expected in scrap report

(2012)

Use of Mo Metal Scrap for Mo

Metal Production

- 7 -


http://www.smr.at

Tsingshan´s NPI plant & Ore (‘mud’) NPI is a game changer in the Nickel Industry

- 8 -


http://www.smr.at

STS Scrap: The flexible Raw Material Source – a market that works perfectly NPI is good for Molybdenum as it leads to lower scrap ratios in China

(1.200)

(1.000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

-

200

400

600

800

1.000

US

$ / t

Dif

fere

nc

e:

T

he

ore

tic

Min

us

Re

al S

cra

p P

ric

e

Real Intrinsic Value Discounts vs. Theoretic Values

(based on Ni 90 - Cr 85 - Fe 100 ‘rule’)

Too

Cheap

Too

Expensive

Average 10.3 % Discount

Today 19.3 % Discount

NPI (11%)

NPI (5%)

- 9 -


http://www.smr.at

18-10-2 (stainless) Scrap Ratio by Region …. even there is no Mo Pig Iron (yet), China uses less Cr-Ni-Mo scrap than the rest of the world

44%

61%

33%

37% 35%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

Europe USA China Other Asia ROW

Mo

Un

its

[ in

%]

ROW

http://images.google.at/imgres?imgurl=http://images.j2.com/img120803/europe-globe.gif&imgrefurl=http://home.efax.com/s/r/efax_eu?CMP=OTC-eu&h=140&w=140&sz=14&hl=de&start=14&tbnid=TzGrOiHyV_6RBM:&tbnh=93&tbnw=93&prev=/images?q=Globe+Europe&svnum=10&hl=de&lr=&sa=G


http://www.smr.at




4. Mo End Use 2012


Content

- 11 -


http://www.smr.at

Oil and Gas (incl. Catalysts,

Ref inery)

20%

Chemical/Petrochemical14%

Automotive13%

Mechanical Engineering

13%

Process Industry (excl. CPI)8%

Other Transportation8%

Power Generation7%

Building / Construction

6%

Aerospace & Defence4%

Electronics & Medical2%

Others* 5%

Molybdenum End Use Structure 2012 (incl. Mo in Scrap)

Oil / Gas, CPI/Petrochemical, Automotive and Mechanical Engineering > 10% each

Total End Use

321,400 t * incl. Pigments, Coating s and Lubricants

- 12 -


http://www.smr.at

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

ChemicalsCast IronMo-MetalATS / HSSSuper AlloysStainless SteelConstructional Eng. Steel

Mo

Use

in t

Total Mo End Use by Segments (incl. Mo from Scrap)

Oil & Gas: ~20,000 t bigger than second ranking CPI - Top4 Segments account for 60% of Mo Use

* incl. Pigments, Coatings and Lubricants

63,800 t – mainly in

CRA Materials and

Ref. Catalysts

45,200t – mainly Mo in

STS (316/Duplex)

43,000 t – Constr. Eng

Steel, ATS, Cast Iron

41,500 t – Constr.

Eng Steel, ATS

25,300 t – STS and

ATS/HSS

27,400 t – Constr.

Eng., ATS

23,500 t – Constr.

Eng., STS

18,800 t - dominated by STS

11,500 t – Super-

alloys, Constr. Eng.

6,600 t

14,800 t – driven by Mo

in Chemicals (Pigments,

Coatings, Lubricants etc

Total End Use

321,400 t

- 13 -


http://www.smr.at

Mo End Use per Capita 2012 (incl. Mo in Scrap) in Grams

113,7

66,5

142,6

76,5

49,3

12,7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Europe

Americas

of which USA

China

Other Asia

Other World* Average World:

46 gr per Capita

* incl. CIS, Middle East,India and Africa

ROW

- 14 -



http://www.smr.at

Comparison: Mo Use 2012 vs. 2011

-

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

[to

nn

es

]

2011 (Previous Report)

2012

Growth and

Underestimated in

previous report

2012: Basis

revised

- 15 -

2012: Basis

revised


http://www.smr.at

Where is Mo produced and consumed?

America 55%

China 39%

ROW 6%

Europe 26%

America 15%

China 36%

Other Asia 15%

ROW 8% Europe

21%

America 21%

China 31%

Other Asia 16%

ROW 11%

Mo Production Ore/Concentrate

241,000 t Primary Mo

Mo First Use Primary Mo Use at Mills and in

Metal / Chemical Production


Mo End Use Consumption in End Use Segments at

Fabricators and Consumers


and Mo in Scrap

- 16 -


http://www.smr.at




4. Mo End Use 2012


Content

- 17 -


http://www.smr.at

75

100

125

150

175

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Ind

ex B

ase:

20

12

= 1

00

Europe America

China Other Asia

ROW

Automotive Forecast

*Source: IHS, SMR estimates

- 18 -


http://www.smr.at

Automotive / Other Transport

Engine - Passenger Cars 22%

Power Train - Passenger Cars

29% Frame Parts / Chassis (Car)

11%

Other Passenger Car Parts

12%

Engine - Trucks & Busses

4%

Power Train - Trucks & Busses

7%

Tanks 5%

Frame Parts / Chassis (Trucks)

6%

Other Truck and Bus Parts

4%

Automotive:

43,000 t (Passenger Cars/Trucks)

Offroad Vehicles

52%

Ships 30%

Trains 12%

Cranes 3%

Tractors 3%

Other Transport:

25,300 t

- 19 -

10 yr. Growth above average

Average

Below average


http://www.smr.at

CPI / Process Industry

Tanks & Columns incl. Internals

50%

Pipes 23%

Flow Control (Valves, Fittings, Pumps, Seals)

11%

Heat Exchangers 6%

Catalysts 6%

Instrumentation 2%

Chemical

Process

Industry:

45,200 t

Food Processing 38%

Metal / Steel Processing

33%

Pulp & Paper 13%

Glas Process / HT Furnace

7%

Textile Industry 5%

Desalination 4%

Other Process

Industry:

27,400 t

- 20 -


Average

Below average


http://www.smr.at

Fossil Energy54.7%

Nuclear Energy8.4%

Wind Power10.9%

Other Renawables

26.1%

Fossil Energy61.8%

Nuclear Energy7.9%

Wind Power5.2%

Other Renawables

25.1%

Power Generation

Coal Fired Plants 42%

Gas / Oil Fired Plants 23%

Wind Power 9%

Pollution Control 7%

Nuclear Power 6%

Waste-to Energy 6%

Hydro Energy 3%

Transmission 3%

Solar / Geothermal

Energy 1%

Power Generation:

23,500 t

Energy Mix*

2012

Energy Mix*

2022

*EIA Energy Outlook 2013 –

installed generating capacity

- 21 -


Average

Below average


http://www.smr.at

Mechanical Engineering & Aerospace / Defense

Mining 22%

Other Heavy Machinery

15%

HSS-Working 13%

Hot Working 11%

Recycling, Milling 11%

Bearing 7%

EDM 3%

Cold Working 4%

Other Machinery 14%

Turbine Parts 56%

Airframe 2%

Other Aerospace 15%

Tanks & Armored Vehicles

12%

Guns & Muzzles 8%

Other Defense 7%

Mechanical Engineering:

41,500 t Aerospace/Defense:

11,500 t

- 22 -


Average

Below average


http://www.smr.at

Consumer Durables / Electronics / Medicals and Building & Construction

Consumer Goods 41%

Electronics 39%

Medical Equipment 20%

Consumer Durables /

Electr. / Med. Equipm.:

6,600 t

Architectural Applications

47%

Structural Applications

22%

Heating /Ventilation / Aircondition

17%

General Building / Construction

8%

Infastructure 6%

Building and

Construction:

18,800 t

- 23 -


Average

Below average


http://www.smr.at

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%G

row

th 2

012-2

022 in

%

Mo Use in t (2012)

Segmental Mo End Use Growth 2012 – 2022*) Fast Growth at Other Transportation and Building / Construction influenced by Low Basic Values

Average Growth - All Segments

*) incl. Mo in Scrap

Oth

er

Tra

ns

po

rta

tio

n

Me

ch

an

ica

l E

ng

ine

eri

ng

Po

wer

Ge

ne

rati

on

Ae

ros

pa

ce

/ D

efe

ns

e

Ch

em

ica

l / P

etr

oc

he

mic

al

Ind

us

try

Bu

ild

ing

& C

on

str

uc

tio

n

Co

ns

um

er

Go

od

s / M

ed

. / E

lec

tr.

Pro

ce

ss

In

du

str

y

Au

tom

oti

ve

Oth

ers

O/G

:

Ex

plo

rati

on

/ P

rod

./ P

roc

es

sin

g

O/G

:Re

fin

ery

/

Cata

lysts

Total

Oil & Gas

- 24 -


http://www.smr.at

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

China Americas Other World Other Asia Europe

Mo

Un

its

in t

Additional Mo units used by 2022 Growth rates alone are sometimes mis-leading

Incl. Mo in Scrap

2022 vs. 2012

+44%

+28%

+56%

+19%

+30%

ROW

WORLD

+ 111 kt

+ 35%

- 25 -




http://www.smr.at

Mo End Use Forecast (incl. Mo in Scrap)

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

450.000

Mo

In

pu

t in

t (

Mo

Co

nte

nt)

End Use 2000-2007

End Use 2007-2012

Forecast 2013-2022

Pot. Destocking 2013-15

ACTUAL FORECAST

Crisis and

Post-Crisis GR (07-12):

4.2% p.a.

China Growth GR (00-07):

4.5% p.a.

Forecast GR (12-22):

3.3% p.a.

- 26 -


http://www.smr.at

Mo End Use Analysis 2013

Focus on Oil & Gas

Reutte, September 2013

© SMR GmbH

Source: SBO

Source: Butting

Source: Baker Hughes

http://www.google.at/imgres?imgurl=http://www.atlantachimneydoctor.com/images/products/liners1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.atlantachimneydoctor.com/services/re-liners.htm&usg=__fk4kJUY3-9MSWn5nnLkYCzIvtwI=&h=436&w=239&sz=34&hl=de&start=3&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=gciwAFRRToQqHM:&tbnh=126&tbnw=69&prev=/images?q=Stainless+Chimney+Liners&um=1&hl=de&tbs=isch:1


http://www.smr.at

1. Introduction

2. Applications

3. Moly Use in Oil & Gas – Past, Present and Future

Content


http://www.smr.at

World Primary Energy Demand Oil & Gas is still expected to account for around 50 % of the world energy demand by 2035.

Production of oil and especially gas will continuously grow until then.

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

2000 2010 2015 2020 2035

Mto

e

Other Renewables

Bioenergy

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012, Energy trends to 2035, New Policies Scenario

2000 2010 2015 2020 2035

Share Oil 36% 32% 31% 30% 27%

Share Gas 21% 22% 21% 22% 24%

Share Oil & Gas 57% 54% 53% 52% 51%


http://www.smr.at

Oil Production by Type – Long Term Outlook The share of deepwater production will double (from 4 to 9 %). Also onshore production (incl. shale) is growing.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 In

dex b

ased o

n 2

005

Onshore Shallow Water (< 500 ft) Deepwater

Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mill

ion

ba

rre

ls/d

ay

Deepwater Shallow Water (< 500 ft) Onshore


http://www.smr.at

Meters Drilled per year – Medium Term Outlook When comparing total drilling depths in meters, the deepwater share is lower but growing fast.

To produce 1 million barrels/day, more onshore metres need to be drilled compared to a deepwater project.

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

Index b

ased o

n 2

005

Deepwater

Shallow Water

Onshore

Source: Quest Offshore

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Mill

ion

me

ters

drille

d

Onshore

Shallow Water

Deepwater


http://www.smr.at

Onshore Drilling Shale gas/oil developments (fracking) led to a renaissance of US onshore drilling.

Mo is used for OCTG & Drillpipe, non-magnetic drill string equipment, fracking pumps and downhole tools.

Source: Quest Offshore

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mill

ion

me

ters

drille

d

ROW

Europe

Asia

N America

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mill

ion

me

ters

drille

d

U.S. Vertical Drilling

U.S. Directional/Horizontal Drilling

Fracking accounts for around 65 % of the U.S. Mo demand for oil & gas!


http://www.smr.at

Steel Types and Grades Used in the Oil & Gas Industry

The grades shown in red contain Molybdenum

OCTG e.g. API 5CT H40, J55, N80, M65, C75, L80, C90, C95, T95, P105, P110, Q125

Drillpipe e.g. API 5DP E-75, X-95, G-105, S-135, sour service SS95, SS105

Linepipe X70, X80 (normally no Mo, but in China Nb is replaced by Mo), X100

Alloy Steels 4130, 4140, 4145H, 4330, 4340, 8630, F22, F5, F11, F60, 9Cr/1Mo,

proprietary grades like VAM Drilling ERS 425

Stainless Steels Martensitic: 13Cr, Super 13Cr, 410, 420, F6NM, Carpenter Custom 465®

Austenitic: 304, 321, 316, 317L, 347

Duplex: Duplex (22 Cr), Superduplex (25 Cr), Lean Duplex

PH: 13-8, 17-4 PH, 15-5 PH, ATI S240

Superaustenitics: 6Mo grades, 904L

Non Magnetic: e.g. Böhler (P530, P550, P580, P650), ATI (Datalloy 2,

Staballoy AG17), Carpenter (15-15HS, 15-15LC, SCF19)

Nickel Alloys 28, 625, 718, 725, 825, 925, 945, C276, C22, G3, P750

400, 600, 800, K500, Invar


http://www.smr.at

Why is the share of CRAs (stainless steel & nickel alloys) increasing?

The era of easy accessible oil & gas has ended!

• Increasing offshore production

• Rapid growth of ultra-deepwater production

• Increasingly severe operating conditions

(higher pressure, higher temperature, higher corrosion)

• Boosting technologies to increase brownfield production

CRA demand is driven by the production/reservoir

conditions (sorted by importance):

1. Corrosiveness (H2S, CO2, Chloride)

2. Temperature

3. Pressure

There is no alternative to CRAs!

• Titanium

• Ni Alloys

• 28Cr (Alloy 28)

• Superduplex (25 Cr)

• Duplex (22 Cr)

• 300 series austenitic

• 13Cr, martensitic

• Alloy Steel

• Carbon Steel

Co

rro

siv

en

ess,

Tem

pera

ture

, P

ressu

re


http://www.smr.at

1. Introduction

2. Applications

3. Moly Use in Oil & Gas – Past, Present and Future

Content


http://www.smr.at

Moly Units by Application

OCTG & Drill Pipe

41%

Gas Linepipe

19%

Topsides 20%

Others 20%

Downhole Tools 15%

Flowlines 12%

Valves 10%

Risers 9%

LNG 8%

Drill String 7%

Wellheads 7%

Pumps 7%

Subsea Connectors

6%

Control Units 5%

Welding Wire 4%

Trees 4% Umbilicals

2%

Others 4%

Split Others

Top Mo Containing Appplications by Steel TypeApplication Alloy Steel Stainless Steel Nickel Alloys

No. 1 OCTG & Drill Pipe Topside Processing Downhole Tools

No. 2 Linepipe OCTG OCTG

No. 3 Downhole Tools Infield Flowlines Topside Processing

No. 4 Wellheads LNG Valves

No. 5 Drill String Components Risers Wellheads

No. 6 Subsea Connectors Pumps Infield Flowlines

No. 6 Subsea Trees Valves Subsea Connectors

No. 8 Valves Welding Wire Subsea Trees

No. 9 Risers Drill String Components Drill String Components

No. 10 Blowout Preventers Umbilicals Risers

Share Top 10 99% 92% 90%

Avg. Mo

Content

0.6%


http://www.smr.at

OCTG Casing & Tubing, Drill Pipe

Grades Used :

• AS (majority): API 5CT Gr. 1 (e.g. H40, J55, N80 – some veriations of these grades can

have little Mo), Gr. 2 (e.g. M65, C75, L80, C90, C95, T95), Gr. 3 (P110),

Gr. 4 (Q125), Gr. 5 (producer specific grades)

• STS: 13Cr, Super 13Cr, Duplex, Super Duplex

• NA: 625, 825, G3, G50, C276, Alloy 28

Source: Vallourec

Source: Tenaris, Drill Pipe

API 5CT Gr. 1 50%

API 5CT Gr. 2 16%

API 5CT Gr. 3 20%

API 5CT Gr. 4 7%

API 5CT Gr. 5 6,5%

Grades Used (AS)

Avg. Mo

Content

0.5%

API 5CT Gr. 1 1%

API 5CT Gr. 2 46%

API 5CT Gr. 3 - No Mo

0%

API 5CT Gr. 4 43%

API 5CT Gr. 5 10,1%

Mo Content

13 Cr 88%

Super 13Cr 12%

Grades Used (13Cr)

Grades Used (Duplex, NA)

Duplex/Superd.

59%

Alloy 28 27% Alloy

825 10%

G3 3%

Other Ni 1,2%


http://www.smr.at

Processing (Topside; in future also subsea)

• The following topside equipment can be installed on platforms: water treatment,

seawater systems, separators, heat exchangers, oil treatment, gas treatment,

compressors, water injection systems, tanks, vessels, flare stacks, etc. which all are

connected by process piping systems and instrumentation tubing.

Grades Used :

• STS: 304, 316L (also for cladding/weld overlay), 317, 321, Duplex 2205,

Super Duplex 2507, LDX 2101, 904L, 6 Moly (254 SMO, 654 SMO)

• NA: 625 (also for cladding/weld overlay), 800, 825, 400

Source: Aker, subsea

compressor inlet scrubber

Source: Argo Flare

Services, flare stack

Avg. Mo

Content

2.9%

316/317 62%

304/321 13%

Duplex 19%

6 Mo 3%

904L 0,5% 625/825

1,3% 800/400

0,5%

Othr Ni 0,2%

Grades Used


http://www.smr.at

Downhole Tools/Completion Tools

Types of Downhole Tools:

• Flow control: sliding sleeves landing nipples, polished bore receptacles, etc.

• Safety systems: subsurface safety valves

• Packers

• Liner hangers

• Sand control: gravel packs, screens

Grades used:

• AS: 4130, 4140, 4330, 9Cr

• STS: 13Cr, Super 13Cr, 410, 420, Super Duplex 25Cr

• NA: 718, 725, 725HS, 825, 925, HS

Source: Baker Atlas

Source: Baker Hughes

4140/ 4130 49%

4330/ 4340 23%

Other AS 3%

13Cr 9%

410/420 8%

Other STS 1% 718

2% 925 2%

725 2%

Other Ni 1%

Grades Used

Avg. Mo

Content

0.7%


http://www.smr.at

Other Applications

Source: Butting, mechanically lined

BuBi® pipe Sources: Cameron Source: Nexans, flexible pipe Source: Claxton Engineering,

high pressure drilling riser

Source: Erndtebrücker

Eisenwerk, LNG pipes Source: SBO, non-mag

drill collars

Source: Dyna-Drill, downhole

motor Source: FMC Technologies,

subsea tree

Tree

Infield Flowlines Valves Risers

Subsea Trees LNG Drill String Components

Avg. Mo Content

2.3% 1.9% 2.3%

2.2% 1.1% 0.4%


http://www.smr.at

1. Introduction

2. Applications

3. Moly Use in Oil 6 Gas – Past, Present and Future

Content


http://www.smr.at

Mo Containing Steel Usage for Oil & Gas Applications The use of Mo steels is fluctuating heavily depending on Chinese gas linepipe projects.

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Index b

ased o

n 2

005

Total Steel

Mo Steel

Mo Content

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

In 1

,00

0 to

nn

es

Gas Linepipe Alloy Steel OCTG & Drill Pipe Other Applications


http://www.smr.at

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2012 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

Ind

ex b

ase

d o

n 2

01

2

Alloy Steel

Stainless Steel

Nickel Alloy

Offshore drilling

Onshore drilling

Outlook of Mo Content by Steel Type

Stainless and Ni Alloys are growing faster than Alloy Steel


http://www.smr.at

Which Mo containing steels are used and how much Mo do they contain?

Alloy Steel 56%

Stainless Steel 35%

Nickel Alloys

9%

2007

33,600 t Mo Units

2012

40,230 t Mo Units

2018

46,200 t Mo Units

Alloy Steel 60%

Stainless Steel 33%

Nickel Alloys

7%

Alloy Steel 50%

Stainless Steel 41%

Nickel Alloys

9%

+15%


http://www.smr.at

Moly Containing Alloy Steels

2007

18,715 t Mo Units

2012

24,000 t Mo Units

2018

23,200 t Mo Units

OCTG 64%

Linepipe 27%

Others 9%

OCTG 62%

Linepipe 31%

Others 7%

OCTG 81%

Linepipe 10%

Others 9%

- 3%


http://www.smr.at

Moly Containing Stainless Steel Grades

300 Series 51%

Duplex 32%

6Mo Grades

8%

Mart./ 13Cr 7%

Others 2%

2007

11,878t Mo Units

2012

13,323 t Mo Units

2018

18,700 t Mo Units

300 Series 53%

Duplex 31%

6Mo Grades

7%

Mart./ 13Cr 6%

Others 3%

300 Series 51%

Duplex 33%

6Mo Grades

8%

Mart./ 13Cr 5%

Others 3%

+41%


http://www.smr.at

Moly Containing Nickel Alloy Grades

625 42%

725 10%

28 13%

825 11%

718 7%

925 5% Other

12%

2007

3,000 t Mo Units

2012

2,900 t Mo Units

2018

4,200 t Mo Units

625 42%

725 12%

28 11%

825 11%

718 7%

925 6%

Other 11%

625 45%

725 11%

28 10%

825 11%

718 7%

925 6%

Other 10%

+46%


http://www.smr.at

Outlook for Mo Units in Oil & Gas – Detailed Summary Table

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

07-12 12-18 07-18

Drill String 550 554 458 494 587 607 602 608 636 660 691 757 2.1% 3.7% 3.4%

Blowout Preventers 38 51 49 62 56 58 67 64 57 57 56 54 7.9% -2.3% 2.1%

Wellheads 586 587 468 488 538 555 583 570 617 639 665 672 -1.4% 3.5% 2.2%

Subsea/Christmas Trees 321 316 252 277 247 299 361 388 399 389 409 410 -2.8% 4.4% 4.1%

OCTG Casing/Tubing STS/NA 1,654 1,482 1,160 1,293 1,473 1,759 1,907 1,988 2,076 2,042 2,133 2,136 1.1% 3.0% 4.8%

OCTG Casing/Tubing AS 12,000 11,800 10,000 11,400 13,050 14,811 15,214 15,887 16,591 17,329 18,101 18,911 4.3% 4.3% 5.5%

Downhole Tools 1,180 1,119 863 942 1,039 1,204 1,246 1,289 1,360 1,369 1,455 1,477 -0.1% 3.6% 3.8%

Subsea Manifolds 68 79 37 32 28 55 71 81 84 79 85 88 -11.8% 6.4% 6.1%

Umbilicals/Flying Leads 221 337 186 378 333 201 419 442 453 481 546 551 0.5% 13.9% 8.6%

Jumpers 26 30 17 13 13 22 29 36 36 36 38 39 -9.7% 8.3% 7.4%

Flowlines 1,074 653 928 971 945 945 855 891 1,055 1,644 1,804 1,872 1.5% 16.0% 7.0%

Gas Line Pipes (mainly China) 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,412 6,000 7,576 4,831 2,094 5,116 9,137 5,127 2,205 8.1% -7.3% -2.0%

Risers 650 730 632 680 532 693 802 773 1,036 1,076 1,498 1,669 -1.6% 16.3% 8.7%

Subsea Connectors 519 515 464 482 464 502 595 582 664 677 734 751 -1.3% 6.6% 4.4%

Subsea Control Units 203 205 191 186 198 202 224 213 239 241 251 254 -0.5% 3.8% 2.6%

Subsea Sensors 41 41 38 37 40 40 45 43 48 48 50 51 -0.5% 3.8% 2.6%

Control and Injection Lines 188 145 169 178 156 180 222 202 253 270 281 288 0.2% 8.1% 6.0%

Wirelines and Slicklines 93 92 70 72 84 86 86 86 89 92 95 100 -1.9% 2.6% 1.4%

Processing (Topsisde/Subsea) 6,004 7,485 5,579 5,320 7,295 7,839 7,778 9,030 8,308 10,574 10,048 10,003 3.5% 5.1% 5.6%

FPSO 665 734 353 371 773 272 453 815 861 815 815 861 -11.5% 18.0% 5.2%

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) 333 224 83 304 551 633 467 309 257 211 310 506 22.9% -6.5% 4.0%

Pumps 579 571 436 446 521 533 531 532 552 569 591 620 -1.9% 2.7% 1.4%

Compressors 7 7 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 -1.9% 2.6% 1.4%

Valves 1,067 852 742 736 908 784 1,055 1,069 1,070 1,378 1,495 1,318 -3.8% 9.4% 5.2%

Actuators 13 11 9 9 11 10 13 13 13 17 18 16 -3.4% 9.2% 5.0%

Fracking Pumps/Blocks 30 31 28 32 39 29 22 36 38 39 41 45 1.9% 10.0% 3.4%

Welding Wire 485 229 347 369 315 328 261 310 358 518 580 524 -2.6% 13.4% 4.1%

Total 33,598 33,880 27,565 29,989 36,204 40,230 38,744 38,356 42,272 50,393 47,927 46,182 3.4% 4.1% 4.5%

CAGR

in t of Mo Units


http://www.smr.at

Mo in Oil & Gas - Key Takeaways

• Mo content will grow faster than total steel demand; the avg. Mo share is expected to increase from 0.55 % in

2012 to 0.75 % in 2018.

• OCTG: 41 % of Mo use in 2012 – 45 % in 2018; the average Mo share was growing from 0.45 % in 2007 to

0.50% in 2012 and is expected to remain stable now.

• Gas Line Pipe: Mo grades are mainly used in China; demand heavily fluctuating based on project activity (19 %

of Mo use in 2012 but just 5 % in 2018); the average Mo share is expected to grow from 0.25 % to 0.3 %.

• Processing (Topside/subsea)/FPSO: 20 % of Mo use in 2012 – 24 % in 2018; driving demand for 316 and

Duplex; relatively high average Mo share with 2.9 %. Rising practice of ‘seabed processing’.

• Other Applications: 20 % of Mo use in 2012 – 24 % in 2018; main applications with increasing shares:

Flowlines 12 -> 15 % (avg. Mo 2.3 %), Risers 9 -> 14 % (avg. Mo 2.3 %), Umbilicals 2 –> 5 % (avg. Mo 3.8 %).

• Fracking: main consumption comes from alloy steel OCTG (avg. Mo 0.49 %), drill string components (avg. Mo

0.42 %) including non-magnetic drill collars (avg. Mo 0.66 %), downhole tools (avg. Mo 0.68 %) and fracking

blocks (mainly alloy steel 4340/4310 avg. Mo 0.26 % - new solution PH STS grades are Mo free).


http://www.smr.at

Available multiclient-reports from SMI - Steel Market Intelligence

Corrosion Resistant Steels & Alloys in the Oil & Gas Industry

1,000+ Pages

$ 20,000.-

30% discount

for IMOA

members


http://www.smr.at

Stainless & Special Steel Conferences 2014 Good places to get market intelligence

For more information please visit: www.smr.at / www.amm.com/events / www.metalbulletin.com/events

- 51 -

4 - 5 June, 2014

Hong Kong

9th Asian Stainless Steel Conference

2 - 4 September, 2014

Istanbul, Turkey

13th International Stainless & Special Steel Summit

September , 2014

Chicago, USA

28th Stainless & Its Alloys Conference

in association with Field- Visit to

in association with

in association with

Field- Visit to

http://www.amm.com/

http://www.google.at/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=B9zb5mtWCJ--8M&tbnid=JTybnA8grE0czM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.mavikocaeli.com.tr/yerel/posco-sevkiyata-basladi-h186388.html&ei=GLYkUuzXNMnLswbi94DACQ&bvm=bv.51495398,d.Yms&psig=AFQjCNGy6JcA5WUJzafkw6fXA68aA5_4vg&ust=1378224021443487

mo end use analysis 2013 - molybdenum › mf › agm › 2013 › papers › 8--markus-moll.pdfcpi /...

Documents