mixed-fisheries and ecosystem based management · 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1990 2000 2010...
TRANSCRIPT
Mixed-fisheries and Ecosystem Based Management trade-offs and the importance of climate
Christopher Lynam and Steven Mackinson
S12 Linking climate change to marine management objectives Tuesday 24th March 2015
PICES Symposium on ‘Effects of climate change on the world’s oceans’
The issue
MULTIPLE USES
MULTIPLE IMPACTS
FISHERIES NOT INDEPENDENT
POLICY
CLIMATE
COD
COD
WHITING
Lynam + Mackinson: Mixed fisheries + EBM 2
ENVIRONMENT
Policy arena Management for European seas required to meet aims of policy: 1. Common Fisheries Policy (CFP; EC 2013) 2. Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD; EC 2010) Objectives: 1) to achieve maximum sustainable yield for all commercial
species by 2020
2) to achieve Good Environmental Status (GES) of marine waters by 2020
Lynam + Mackinson: Mixed fisheries + EBM 3
Climate is explicitly mentioned … MSFD Descriptor 1: Biodiversity “The quality and occurrence of habitats and the distribution and abundance of species are in line with prevailing physiographic, geographic and climatic conditions.” MSFD Descriptor 4: Food Webs ”All elements of the marine food webs, to the extent that they are known, occur at normal abundance and diversity and levels capable of ensuring the long-term abundance of the species and the retention of their full reproductive capacity”
Lynam + Mackinson: Mixed fisheries + EBM 4
Activity (fishing effort)
Pressure (fishing mortality)
Species indicator
(stock biomass)
Community indicator
(in line with prevailing climatic conditions)
Lynam + Mackinson: Mixed fisheries + EBM 5
Additional management
for GES?
Fisheries management
Extended management cycle
Fisheries and Environmental objectives CFP: Fisheries management have adopted maximum sustainable yield (MSY) targets for fishing mortality on commercial species MSFD: GES by 2020, assessment based on ecological indicators, including indicators of Biodiversity and Food webs
Lynam + Mackinson: Mixed fisheries + EBM 6
Q How might fisheries management measures contribute
towards the attainment of GES? Q How important are the prevailing climatic conditions?
Which ecological indicators respond to fishing pressure? What management measures might alter fishing pressure? Will climate change mean that we can not meet our aims?
Considered by OSPAR and ICES responsive to fisheries impacts: Food webs • Mean trophic level of surveyed species • Abundance of trophic guilds
(piscivores, planktivores, benthivores, bentho-piscivores) • Large Fish Indicator (all fish and elasmobranches) Biodiversity • Large Fish Indicator (demersal fish and elasmobranchs) • Mean Maximum Length of demersal fish and elasmobranchs
Lynam + Mackinson: Mixed fisheries + EBM 7
MSFD state indicators
8
• ICES (2012) approved “key-run” of North Sea model
• Driven by time series of fishing mortality for assessed stocks and fishing effort for 8 fleets
Includes environmental drivers Direct forcing of phytoplankton Direct forcing on some fish (e.g. cod) following literature Indirect effects on higher levels [see Mackinson (2013)]
e.g. plaice caught by multiple gears
Multi-fleet
multi-species
Scenario developments
• Benefit of the optimisation approach is that we final a single set of effort for 3 fleets (using ICES F targets for 8 stocks)
• Incorporating the effort strategy in EwE we can model the expected F on 43 species in a consistent way
Lynam + Mackinson: Mixed fisheries + EBM
Fishing strategy (for wider effects)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Herr
ing
fishi
ng m
orta
lity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Nor
way
pou
t fis
hing
mor
talit
y0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Cod
fishi
ng m
orta
lity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Hadd
ock
fishi
ng m
orta
lity
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Saith
e fis
hing
mor
talit
y
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Whi
ting
fishi
ng m
orta
lity
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Sole
fish
ing
mor
talit
y
Fishing mortality target
Baseline fishing (2007 mortality value)
Optimised fishing strategy
F (stock assessment)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Plai
ce fi
shin
g m
orta
litycod haddock plaice
saithe whiting sole
herring N. pout
Fishing mortality target
Baseline fishing (2007 mortality value)
Optimised fishing strategy
F (stock assessment)
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Nor
th S
ea S
ST re
lativ
e to
199
0
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Nor
th S
ea S
ST re
lativ
e to
199
0
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Tota
l bio
mas
s (to
nnes
per
km
2 )12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Tota
l bio
mas
s (to
nnes
per
km
2 )
Lynam + Mackinson: Mixed fisheries + EBM 11
Baseline fishing and constant climate
Optimised fishing strategy with constant climate
Baseline fishing plus climate scenario
Optimised fishing plus climate scenario
Temperature scenario
Scenario
Biomass (constant climate)
Biomass (+SST variable)
SST constant
SST variable
Total biomass of system follows temperature trajectory
12
Baseline fishing and constant climate
Optimised fishing strategy with constant climate
Baseline fishing plus climate scenario
Optimised fishing plus climate scenario
hindcast period
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Biom
ass o
f sur
veye
d sp
ecie
s (t
per
km
2 )
3.7
3.75
3.8
3.85
3.9
3.95
4
4.05
4.1
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Trop
hic l
evel
of s
urve
yed
spec
ies
(fish
and
ela
smob
ranc
hes)
Total biomass of fish less sensitive than biomass of entire system Yet small change in trophic level…
Temperature – little effect on fish ?
Biomass of fish and elasmobranchs Trophic level of fish and elasmobranchs
Survey
ΔF by species
-1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50
SoleCod (adult)
PlaiceSealsSprat
Saithe (adult)Spurdog
MonkfishLarge piscivorous sharks
Catfish (Wolf-fish)Herring (adult)
Large demersal fishHaddock (adult)
Squid & cuttlefishFlounder
Herring (juvenile 0, 1)Mackerel
Other gadoids (large)Witch
Lemon soleJuvenile Haddock (0-1, 0-20cm)
Whiting (adult)Shrimp
SandeelsMiscellaneous filterfeeding pelagic…
DabSmall demersal fish
Turbot and brillSkate + cuckoo ray
NephropsOther gadoids (small)
Small sharksJuvenile Saithe (0-3, 0-40cm)
Juvenile raysThornback & Spotted ray
Horse mackerelHake
GurnardsJuvenile Cod(0-2, 0-40cm)
Juvenile Whiting (0-1, 0-20cm)Starry ray + others
HalibutDragonets
Large crabsBlue whiting
SeabirdsLong-rough dab
MegrimNorway pout
% change in biomass at equilibrium (2030)
-0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00
SoleCod (adult)PlaiceSealsSpratSaithe (adult)SpurdogMonkfishLarge piscivorous sharksCatfish (Wolf-fish)Herring (adult)Large demersal fishHaddock (adult)Squid & cuttlefishFlounderHerring (juvenile 0, 1)MackerelOther gadoids (large)WitchLemon soleJuvenile Haddock (0-1, 0-20cm)Whiting (adult)ShrimpSandeelsMiscellaneous filterfeeding pelagic…DabSmall demersal fishTurbot and brillSkate + cuckoo rayNephropsOther gadoids (small)Small sharksJuvenile Saithe (0-3, 0-40cm)Juvenile raysThornback & Spotted rayHorse mackerelHakeGurnardsJuvenile Cod(0-2, 0-40cm)Juvenile Whiting (0-1, 0-20cm)Starry ray + othersHalibutDragonetsLarge crabsBlue whitingSeabirdsLong-rough dabMegrimNorway pout
Difference in F
Without change in climate Winners and losers decreases in F or no change for every group
Winners
losers
ΔF % change in biomass
-1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50
SoleCod (adult)
PlaiceSealsSprat
Saithe (adult)Spurdog
MonkfishLarge piscivorous sharks
Catfish (Wolf-fish)Herring (adult)
Large demersal fishHaddock (adult)
Squid & cuttlefishFlounder
Herring (juvenile 0, 1)Mackerel
Other gadoids (large)Witch
Lemon soleJuvenile Haddock (0-1, 0-20cm)
Whiting (adult)Shrimp
SandeelsMiscellaneous filterfeeding pelagic…
DabSmall demersal fish
Turbot and brillSkate + cuckoo ray
NephropsOther gadoids (small)
Small sharksJuvenile Saithe (0-3, 0-40cm)
Juvenile raysThornback & Spotted ray
Horse mackerelHake
GurnardsJuvenile Cod(0-2, 0-40cm)
Juvenile Whiting (0-1, 0-20cm)Starry ray + others
HalibutDragonets
Large crabsBlue whiting
SeabirdsLong-rough dab
MegrimNorway pout
% change in biomass at equilibrium (2030)
% change in biomass -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50
SoleCod (adult)
PlaiceSealsSprat
Saithe (adult)Spurdog
MonkfishLarge piscivorous sharks
Catfish (Wolf-fish)Herring (adult)
Large demersal fishHaddock (adult)
Squid & cuttlefishFlounder
Herring (juvenile 0, 1)Mackerel
Other gadoids (large)Witch
Lemon soleJuvenile Haddock (0-1, 0-20cm)
Whiting (adult)Shrimp
SandeelsMiscellaneous filterfeeding pelagic…
DabSmall demersal fish
Turbot and brillSkate + cuckoo ray
NephropsOther gadoids (small)
Small sharksJuvenile Saithe (0-3, 0-40cm)
Juvenile raysThornback & Spotted ray
Horse mackerelHake
GurnardsJuvenile Cod(0-2, 0-40cm)
Juvenile Whiting (0-1, 0-20cm)Starry ray + others
HalibutDragonets
Large crabsBlue whiting
SeabirdsLong-rough dab
MegrimNorway pout
% change in biomass at equilibrium (2030)
% change in biomass
ΔF and ΔSST
With variability in climate Losers worse off decreases in F or no change for every group
Winners
losers
% change in biomass
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
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2029
Biom
ass o
f pis
civo
res
(t p
er k
m2 )
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Biom
ass o
f pla
nktiv
ores
(t
per
km
2 )
ΔF and ΔSST: food webs
Biomass by trophic guild
Planktivores
Piscivores
Baseline fishing and constant climate
Optimised fishing strategy with constant climate
Baseline fishing plus climate scenario
Optimised fishing plus climate scenario
Survey
ΔF and ΔSST: biodiversity
Size structure indicators for demersal guild
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Larg
e Sp
ecie
s Ind
icat
or(d
emer
sal
fish
and
elas
mob
ranc
hes)
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Mea
n m
axim
um le
ngth
(cm
)(d
emer
sal f
ish
and
elas
mob
ranc
hes)
Mean Maximum Length
Large Species Indicator
Baseline fishing and constant climate
Optimised fishing strategy with constant climate
Baseline fishing plus climate scenario
Optimised fishing plus climate scenario
Survey
ΔF and ΔSST: food webs
Size structure indicators for all species Less sensitive to climate than the demersal guild
45
50
55
60
65
70
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Mea
n m
axim
um le
ngth
(cm
) (al
l su
rvey
ed fi
sh a
nd e
lasm
obra
nche
s)
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Larg
e Sp
ecie
s Ind
icat
or (a
ll su
rvey
edfis
h an
d el
asm
obra
nche
s)Baseline fishing and constant climate
Optimised fishing strategy with constant climate
Baseline fishing plus climate scenario
Optimised fishing plus climate scenario
Mean Maximum Length
Large Species Indicator
Survey
18
Reduced fishing effort will lead to increases in • size-based indicators and • biomasses of piscivores, planktivores and benthivores • however, predation by piscivores will depress bentho-
piscivore biomass
• Fisheries management measures will contribute to improvements in the biodiversity of the fish community, but food web interactions will mediate changes
Lynam + Mackinson: Mixed fisheries + EBM
Summary: fishing impacts
Climate warming may • increase indicators of size and trophic level • increase the biomass of planktivores and benthivores • decrease the biomass of piscivores
• Community indicators are less sensitive to climate as the number of species included in the indicator increase
Lynam + Mackinson: Mixed fisheries + EBM 19
Summary: climate impacts
• Targets for ecological indicators + targets for fishing mortality
(revised to reflect fleet/species interactions) must be set in a coherent manner
• Climate change must be considered such that management
targets set are achievable
Lynam + Mackinson: Mixed fisheries + EBM 20
Implications
‘Effects of climate change on the world’s oceans’ Santos City, Brazil, 23-27 March 2015 S12 Linking climate change to marine management objectives