mitula group (mua) - baillieu.com.au · baillieu holst research mitula group limited baillieu holst...

28
BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH 10 August 2015 Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 1 RECOMMENDATIONS Rating BUYRisk High Price Target $1.20 Share Price $0.90 SNAPSHOT Monthly Turnover $3.0mn Market Cap $184mn Shares Issued 205.0mn 52-Week High $0.95 52-Week Low $0.76 Sector Information Technology BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Mitula Group (Mitula) is a vertical search engine company spanning three core verticals, namely; real estate, automotive and employment. Its two main brands are ‘Mitula’ and ‘Nestoria’. In total, the company operates 51 websites covering 38 countries and 14 languages. 12-MONTH PRICE & VOLUME RESEARCH ANALYST Josh Kannourakis + 613 9602 9265 j[email protected] Nicolas Burgess, CFA + 613 9602 9379 [email protected] Nick Caley + 613 9602 9283 [email protected] Disclosure The author owns no shares in MUA. Baillieu Holst Ltd acted as Underwriter for MUA and earned fees in relation to that activity in the past 12 months. Mitula Group (MUA) COMPANY REPORT – INITIATION OF COVERAGE Two way traffic Initiation of coverage: We initiate coverage of Mitula Group (MUA) with a BUY recommendation and $1.20 price target. MUA operates within the online advertising market, or more specifically the paid search advertising services market. Development in online classified websites for real estate, cars and jobs across mature and developing markets drives its growth. FY15 result exceeds guidance: MUA’s unaudited pro forma FY15 EBITDA and NPAT were 7.4% and 12.0% ahead of guidance respectively. The company noted strong momentum in operating metrics and reaffirmed CY15 and FY16 guidance. Our CY15E NPAT is 4.4% ahead of guidance. High growth stock: On a pro forma basis, we forecast MUA to deliver CY14A-CY17E revenue, EBITDA and NPAT CAGR of 35%, 52% and 54% respectively. Mitula’s growth initiatives include: 1) improved monetisation of its websites; 2) acquisitions; 3) growth into new countries and; 4) enhancement of its mobile website and app offering. Strong operational leverage: MUA displays a high degree of operational leverage. In light of the strong aforementioned revenue growth, we expect total operating expenses (including traffic acquisition costs) across CY14A- CY17E to increase only 21% p.a. As a result, we expect CY14A-CY17E EBITDA margin expansion of 17.3% (+1730 bps) to 55.9%. Favourable industry and market dynamics: Online advertising represented ~25% of global advertising expenditure in 2014 and this is forecast to increase to 33% in 2018. Core drivers of growing online advertising spend that support Mitula’s business model are: 1) internet penetration; 2) internet enabled smartphones and; 3) a shift to performance based pricing models. Mitula operates in countries displaying varied levels of maturity within the online classified sector. In our view, the market structure forms the foundation of the investment case and demonstrates the structural growth potential when low maturity online classified markets mature. Valuation: We value MUA using a blended EV/EBITDA and DCF methodology. Our blended valuation is $1.20 per share (EV/EBITDA $1.00, DCF $1.40). We also note the stock is trading on a CY16E PE of 15.6x, which we view as attractive for it growth profile (PEG ratio of ~0.3). Investment risks: We believe the key risks are: 1) unfavourable changes to either Google AdSense terms or unfavourable changes to Google’s search algorithm; 2) industry consolidation driving lower demand for Mitula’s services; 3) a slower than required adoption to the changing technology landscape and; 4) loss of key personnel. INVESTMENT SUMMARY Year End: 31 December 2013 (A) 2014 (A) 2015 (E) 2016 (E) 2017 (E) Revenue $mn 11 16 23 31 40 EBITDA $mn 2.6 6.3 11.0 16.5 22.1 EBIT $mn 2.5 6.1 10.8 16.1 21.6 Reported Profit $mn 1.8 4.6 4.0 12.1 16.8 Adjusted Profit $mn 1.8 4.6 8.1 12.1 16.8 EPS (Reported) ¢ 0.9 2.2 1.9 5.8 8.1 EPS (Adjusted) ¢ 0.9 2.2 3.9 5.8 8.1 EPS Growth % 185.0 153.5 75.6 49.6 38.8 PER (Reported) x 103.0 40.6 46.7 15.5 11.1 PER (Adjusted) x 103.0 40.6 23.2 15.5 11.1 Dividend ¢ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Yield % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Franking % 0 0 0 0 0

Upload: others

Post on 18-Oct-2019

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH 10 August 2015

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 1

RECOMMENDATIONS

Rating BUY▲ Risk High

Price Target $1.20

Share Price $0.90 SNAPSHOT

Monthly Turnover $3.0mn

Market Cap $184mn

Shares Issued 205.0mn

52-Week High $0.95

52-Week Low $0.76

Sector Information Technology

BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Mitula Group (Mitula) is a vertical search engine company spanning three core verticals, namely; real estate, automotive and employment. Its two main brands are ‘Mitula’ and ‘Nestoria’. In total, the company operates 51 websites covering 38 countries and 14 languages.

12-MONTH PRICE & VOLUME

RESEARCH ANALYST Josh Kannourakis

+ 613 9602 9265

[email protected]

Nicolas Burgess, CFA + 613 9602 9379

[email protected]

Nick Caley

+ 613 9602 9283

[email protected]

Disclosure The author owns no shares in MUA. Baillieu Holst Ltd acted as Underwriter for MUAand earned fees in relation to that activity in thepast 12 months.

Mitula Group (MUA)

COMPANY REPORT – INITIATION OF COVERAGE

Two way traffic

Initiation of coverage: We initiate coverage of Mitula Group (MUA) with a BUY recommendation and $1.20 price target. MUA operates within the online advertising market, or more specifically the paid search advertising services market. Development in online classified websites for real estate, cars and jobs across mature and developing markets drives its growth.

FY15 result exceeds guidance: MUA’s unaudited pro forma FY15 EBITDA and NPAT were 7.4% and 12.0% ahead of guidance respectively. The company noted strong momentum in operating metrics and reaffirmed CY15 and FY16 guidance. Our CY15E NPAT is 4.4% ahead of guidance.

High growth stock: On a pro forma basis, we forecast MUA to deliver CY14A-CY17E revenue, EBITDA and NPAT CAGR of 35%, 52% and 54% respectively. Mitula’s growth initiatives include: 1) improved monetisation of its websites; 2) acquisitions; 3) growth into new countries and; 4) enhancement of its mobile website and app offering.

Strong operational leverage: MUA displays a high degree of operational leverage. In light of the strong aforementioned revenue growth, we expect total operating expenses (including traffic acquisition costs) across CY14A-CY17E to increase only 21% p.a. As a result, we expect CY14A-CY17E EBITDA margin expansion of 17.3% (+1730 bps) to 55.9%.

Favourable industry and market dynamics: Online advertising represented ~25% of global advertising expenditure in 2014 and this is forecast to increase to 33% in 2018. Core drivers of growing online advertising spend that support Mitula’s business model are: 1) internet penetration; 2) internet enabled smartphones and; 3) a shift to performance based pricing models. Mitula operates in countries displaying varied levels of maturity within the online classified sector. In our view, the market structure forms the foundation of the investment case and demonstrates the structural growth potential when low maturity online classified markets mature.

Valuation: We value MUA using a blended EV/EBITDA and DCF methodology. Our blended valuation is $1.20 per share (EV/EBITDA $1.00, DCF $1.40). We also note the stock is trading on a CY16E PE of 15.6x, which we view as attractive for it growth profile (PEG ratio of ~0.3).

Investment risks: We believe the key risks are: 1) unfavourable changes to either Google AdSense terms or unfavourable changes to Google’s search algorithm; 2) industry consolidation driving lower demand for Mitula’s services; 3) a slower than required adoption to the changing technology landscape and; 4) loss of key personnel.

INVESTMENT SUMMARY

Year End: 31 December 2013 (A) 2014 (A) 2015 (E) 2016 (E) 2017 (E)

Revenue $mn 11 16 23 31 40

EBITDA $mn 2.6 6.3 11.0 16.5 22.1

EBIT $mn 2.5 6.1 10.8 16.1 21.6

Reported Profit $mn 1.8 4.6 4.0 12.1 16.8

Adjusted Profit $mn 1.8 4.6 8.1 12.1 16.8

EPS (Reported) ¢ 0.9 2.2 1.9 5.8 8.1

EPS (Adjusted) ¢ 0.9 2.2 3.9 5.8 8.1

EPS Growth % 185.0 153.5 75.6 49.6 38.8

PER (Reported) x 103.0 40.6 46.7 15.5 11.1

PER (Adjusted) x 103.0 40.6 23.2 15.5 11.1

Dividend ¢ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Yield % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Franking % 0 0 0 0 0

Page 2: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 2

Financial summary (Baillieu Holst estimates) Mitula Group

Code: MUA Rating: BUYAnalyst: Price Target: $1.20Date: Upside/downside: 33.7%

Share Price: $0.90 Valuation: $1.20Market Capitalisation: $187m Valuation method:

Year End: Risk:

PROFIT & LOSS (A$m) CY13A CY14A CY15E CY16E CY17E EARNINGS CY13A CY14A CY15E CY16E CY17E

AdSense 2.3 5.2 7.8 10.2 12.7 EPS - Underling cash (diluted) - 2.2 3.9 5.8 8.1

Direct CPC 8.3 11.0 15.6 21.0 26.9 EPS Growth - underlying - - 75.6% 49.6% 38.8%

Total Revenue 10.6 16.2 23.4 31.2 39.5 EPS - Reported (diluted) - - 1.9 5.8 8.1

Traffic Acquisition Costs -1.8 -1.9 -3.0 -4.1 -4.9 Diluted shares (m) - - 208.1 208.1 208.1

Gross Profit 8.8 14.3 20.3 27.1 34.6 DPS (cps) - - 0.0 0.0 0.0

Operating Costs -6.1 -8.0 -9.3 -10.7 -12.5 Payout Ratio - - 0% 0% 0%

EBITDA 2.6 6.3 11.0 16.5 22.1 Franking - - 0% 0% 0%

Depreciation and Amortisation -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5

EBIT 2.5 6.1 10.8 16.1 21.6 VALUATION CY13A CY14A CY15E CY16E CY17E

Net interest 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 Underlying cash P/E (x) - - 23.2 15.5 11.1

PBT 2.5 6.2 10.9 16.4 22.7 Underlying PEG Ratio - 0.31 0.31 0.29

Tax -0.6 -1.6 -2.8 -4.3 -5.9 EV/EBITDA (x) - - 15.0 9.3 6.2

Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Price/ FCF (x) - - 36.1 15.8 12.3

Underlying NPAT 1.8 4.6 8.1 12.1 16.8 Dividend Yield (%) - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Non-recurring items (net tax) 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 FCF Yield (%) - - 2.8% 6.3% 8.2%

Reported NPAT 1.8 4.6 4.0 12.1 16.8

BALANCE SHEET (A$m) CY13A CY14A CY15E CY16E CY17E GROWTH CY13A CY14A CY15E CY16E CY17E

Cash - 4.2 22.4 34.3 49.6 Revenue growth 30.1% 53.4% 44.2% 33.4% 26.8%

Receivables - 2.9 5.1 5.9 7.5 Operating cost growth -2.6% 9.4% 56.1% 33.4% 17.0%

Other - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA growth 167.4% 136.6% 75.6% 49.7% 34.3%

Current Assets - 7.0 27.6 40.2 57.1 PBT growth 170.4% 154.0% 75.7% 49.6% 38.8%

PPE - 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.1 Underlying NPAT growth 185.0% 153.5% 75.6% 49.6% 38.8%

Intangibles - 0.0 8.9 8.9 8.9 Reported NPAT growth 185.0% 153.5% -12.9% 201.6% 38.8%

Other - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Non Current Assets - 0.3 9.7 10.3 11.0 MARGINS & RETURNS CY13A CY14A CY15E CY16E CY17E

Total Assets - 7.3 37.2 50.5 68.1 Gross Margin 83.2% 88.0% 87.0% 87.0% 87.5%

Payables - 0.4 1.6 2.8 3.6 EBITDA Margin 25.0% 38.6% 47.1% 52.8% 55.9%

Borrowings - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT Margin 23.5% 37.5% 46.4% 51.8% 54.7%

Income tax payable - 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 NPBT Margin 23.2% 38.4% 46.8% 52.5% 57.4%

Total Current Liabilities - 1.7 3.0 4.1 4.9 ROIC - - - - -

Borrowings - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROE - - 59.6% 47.2% 39.6%

Deferred tax liabilities - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ROA - - 49.4% 37.5% 36.4%

Total Non Current Liabilities - 0.1 20.7 20.7 20.7 Effective Tax Rate 25.8% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%

Total Liabilities - 1.8 23.7 24.9 25.6

Net Assets - 5.5 13.6 25.7 42.5 GEARING CY13A CY14A CY15E CY16E CY17E

Share capital - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt / (cash) (A$m) - -22.4 -34.3 -49.6

Retained earnings - 3.8 11.9 24.0 40.8 Enterprise value - - 165 153 138

Reserves - 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Net Debt/Equity (%) - - - - -

Total shareholders equity - 5.5 13.6 25.7 42.5 EBITDA/Net interest - - - - -

CASH FLOW (A$M) CY13A CY14A CY15E CY16E CY17E ASSUMPTIONS CY13A CY14A CY15E CY16E CY17E

Cash at Start - - 4.2 22.4 34.3 Revenue growth assumptions

EBITDA - - 11.0 16.5 22.1 AdSense 56.5% 126.2% 51.0% 30.6% 24.5%

Working capital - - -1.1 0.4 -0.8 Direct CPC 24.4% 33.3% 41.0% 34.9% 27.9%

Net interest - - 0.1 0.2 1.1 Costs as a % of Revenue

Tax paid - - -2.8 -4.3 -5.9 Traffic acquisition costs 16.8% 12.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.5%

Other/ Statutory adjustments - - -1.3 0.0 0.0 Employee expenses 39.7% 32.3% 26.0% 22.4% 21.2%

Cash flow from operations - - 5.9 12.8 16.5 Operational expenses 3.6% 3.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.1%

Cash flow from investing - - -9.6 -0.9 -1.2 Technology expenses 4.7% 4.5% 3.9% 3.4% 3.1%

Cash flow from financing - - 21.9 0 0 Office expenses 5.0% 5.2% 4.2% 3.3% 2.7%

Cash at end - - 22.4 34.3 49.6 Corporate expenses 5.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 2.4%

10 August, 2015

DCF / EV/EBITDA

31 December High

Josh Kannourakis

Page 3: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 3

Prospectus overview Company:

Analyst:

Date:

Year End:

PROFIT & LOSS (A$'000) CY12A CY13A CY14A CY15P FY15P FY16P CY15F Stat. BALANCE SHEET (A$'000) DEC '14 PF

AdSense 1,459 2,283 5,164 7,521 6,011 8,815 7,521 Assets

Direct CPC 6,661 8,285 11,045 15,184 12,417 17,353 13,115 Cash 15,868

Total revenue 8,120 10,568 16,209 22,705 18,428 26,168 20,636 Receivables 3,671

Traffic acquisition -1,827 -1,779 -1,946 -3,033 -2,368 -3,691 -2,800 Other current assets 139

Cost of sales -1,827 -1,779 -1,946 -3,033 -2,368 -3,691 -2,800 Current Assets 19,678

Gross profit 6,293 8,789 14,263 19,672 16,060 22,477 17,836 PP&E 296

Employee expenses -3,586 -4,198 -5,237 -6,030 -5,717 -5,994 -5,249 Intangible assets 8,555

Operational expenses -251 -376 -605 -642 -601 -682 -674 Goodwill -

Technology expenses -411 -494 -737 -899 -823 -851 -770 Other non-current assets 4

Office expenses -522 -532 -839 -924 -934 -826 -693 Non-current assets 8,855

Corporate expenses -533 -542 -581 -755 -715 -809 -2,866 Total assets 28,533

Total operating expenses -5,303 -6,142 -7,999 -9,250 -8,790 -9,162 -10,252 Liabilities

EBITDA 990 2,647 6,264 10,422 7,270 13,315 7,584 Current liabilities

Depreciation and amortisation -113 -165 -179 -213 -218 -225 -201 Trade & other liabilities 1,114

EBIT 877 2,482 6,085 10,209 7,052 13,090 7,383 Other current liabilities -

Net finance income / (expense) 29 -32 138 272 199 337 -1,690 Income tax payable 1,333

Profit before tax 906 2,450 6,223 10,481 7,251 13,427 5,693 Total current liabilities 2,447

Tax expense -268 -632 -1,615 -2,730 -2,028 -3,323 -2,596 Non-current liabilities

NPAT 638 1,818 4,608 7,751 5,223 10,104 3,097 Borrowings 6

Deferred tax liabilities 69

CASH FLOW (A$'000) CY12A CY13A CY14A CY15P FY15P FY16P CY15F Stat. Other non-current liabilities -

EBITDA 990 2,647 6,264 10,442 7,270 13,315 7,584 Total non-current liabilities 75

Change in working capital -97 394 -1,871 -556 -946 -351 -986 Total liabilities 2,522

Non-cash add back 11 15 82 - - - 95 Net assets 26,011

Operating cash flow pre-capex. 904 3,056 4,475 9,866 6,324 12,964 6,693 Equity

Capital expenditure -147 -502 -224 -672 -680 -210 -672 Contributed equity 24,010

CF before financing, cash, div. 757 2,554 4,251 9,194 5,644 12,754 6,021 Reserves 2,633

Net finance costs - - - 236 180 279 101 Retained earnings -632

Income tax paid - - - -2,198 -638 -2,777 -2,110 Total Equity 26,011

Lokku acquisition consideration - - - - - - -8,881 Net debt / (net cash) -15862

Capital raised (net of costs) - - - - - - 21,899

Net cash flow before dividends - - - 7232 5186 10256 17,030

EXCHANGE RATES CY12A CY13A CY14A CY15P FY15P FY16P CY15F Stat. RATIOS (%) CY14P

AUD:Euro 0.79 0.72 0.66 0.70 0.69 0.70 0.70 Return on Assets 16.1%

AUD:GBP 0.65 0.59 0.53 0.51 0.53 0.51 0.51 Return on Equity 17.7%

Net debt to equity Net cash

MARGINS (%) CY12A CY13A CY14A CY15P FY15P FY16P CY15F Stat. Receivables as % of Revenue 22.6%

Gross Margin 77.5% 83.2% 88.0% 86.6% 87.1% 85.9% 86.4% Payables as % of Op. Costs 13.9%

EBITDA Margin 12.2% 25.0% 38.6% 45.9% 39.5% 50.9% 36.8%

EBIT Margin 10.8% 23.5% 37.5% 45.0% 38.3% 50.0% 35.8%

NPBT Margin 11.2% 23.2% 38.4% 46.2% 39.3% 51.3% 27.6%

SEGMENTS (A$'000) CY12A CY13A CY14A CY15P FY15P FY16P CY15F Stat.

Americas 857 1,640 4,398 7,438 5,848 8,641 -

APAC 428 793 2,302 4,503 3,086 5,500 -

EMEA 6,835 8,135 9,509 10,764 9,494 12,027 -

Revenues 8,120 10,568 16,209 22,705 18,428 26,168 -

Americas 672 1,439 3,975 6,683 5,298 7,697 -

APAC 211 608 2,090 4,030 2,752 4,902 -

EMEA 5,410 6,742 8,198 8,959 8,010 9,878 -

Corporate -5,303 -6,142 -7,999 -9,250 -8,790 -9,162 -

EBITDA 990 2,647 6,264 10,422 7,270 13,315 -

Americas % of Revenue 11% 16% 27% 33% 32% 33% -

APAC % of Revenue 5% 8% 14% 20% 17% 21% -

EMEA % of Revenue 84% 77% 59% 47% 52% 46% -

Americas % of EBITDA (pre- corp.) 11% 16% 28% 34% 33% 34%

APAC % of EBITDA (pre- corp.) 3% 7% 15% 20% 17% 22%

EMEA % of EBITDA (pre- corp.) 86% 77% 57% 46% 50% 44%

P = Proforma forecast as per Mitula Group Prospectus

Josh Kannourakis

6 August, 2015

31 December

Mitula Group

Page 4: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 4

Investment overview

Initiation of coverage: We initiate coverage of Mitula Group (MUA) with a BUY recommendation and $1.20 price target. MUA operates within the online advertising market, or more specifically the paid search advertising services market. Development in online classified websites for real estate, cars and jobs across mature and developing markets support its growth.

FY15 result exceeds guidance: MUA’s unaudited pro forma FY15 EBITDA and NPAT were 7.4% and 12.0% ahead of guidance. The company noted strong momentum in operating metrics and reaffirmed CY15 and FY16 guidance. Our CY15E NPAT is 4.4% ahead of guidance.

High growth stock: On a pro forma basis, we forecast MUA to deliver CY14A-CY17E revenue, EBITDA and NPAT CAGR of 35%, 52% and 54% respectively. Mitula’s growth initiatives include: 1) improved monetisation of its websites; 2) acquisitions; 3) growth into new countries and; 4) enhancement of its mobile website and app offering.

High operational leverage: MUA displays a high degree of operational leverage. In light of the strong aforementioned revenue growth, we expect total operating expenses (including traffic acquisition costs) across CY14A-CY17E to increase only 21% p.a. As a result, we expect CY14A-CY17E EBITDA margin expansion of 17.3% (+1730 bps) to 55.9%.

Favourable industry dynamics: MUA operates within the online search advertising market, a subset of the online advertising market. Online advertising represented ~25% of global advertising expenditure in 2014 and this is forecast to increase to 33% in 2018. Core drivers of growing online advertising spend that support Mitula’s business model are: 1) internet penetration; 2) internet enabled smartphones and; 3) a shift to performance based pricing models.

Market structure: MUA operates in countries displaying varied levels of maturity within the online classified sector. In our view, the market structure forms the foundation of the investment case and demonstrates structural growth potential when low maturity online classified markets mature.

Valuation: We value MUA using a blended EV/EBITDA and DCF methodology. Our blended valuation is $1.20 per share (EV/EBITDA $1.00, DCF $1.40). We also note the stock is trading on a CY16E PE of 15.6x, which we view as attractive for it high growth profile (PEG ratio of ~0.3).

Investment risks: We believe the key risks are: 1) unfavourable changes to either Google AdSense terms or unfavourable changes to Google’s search algorithm; 2) industry consolidation driving lower demand for Mitula’s services; 3) a slower than required adoption to the changing technology landscape and; 4) loss of key personnel.

Page 5: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 5

Result overview

FY15 result exceeds guidance: Mitula (MUA) released unaudited pro forma FY15 results (12mths to 30 June 2015) on the 6th of August 2015. FY15 EBITDA and NPAT were 7.4% and 12.0% ahead of guidance.

CY15 and FY16 guidance reaffirmed: The Company noted strong momentum in operating metrics and reaffirmed CY15 and FY16 guidance, noting it “remains confident of achieving” these estimates. Our CY15E NPAT is 4.4% ahead of guidance as we expect a lag in expected employee costs and normalisation of tax costs into the 2H.

Robust operating metrics: Listings have grown 8% since April 2015, an FY15 growth of 37.8%. The 5% acceleration of Click Outs per visit was a key positive; growing from 1.39 in June 2014 to 1.46 in June 2015. Percentage of Click Outs sold grew from 43% to 57.3%, which in our view is supportive evidence of MUA’s strategy to improve its monetisation.

Exemption from statutory accounts: Given the IPO’s proximity to the June 30 reporting period, it did not have to prepare statutory half year accounts (MUA’s financial year end is 31 December and throughout the report we reference MUA’s financial year as CY and the June Y/E as FY).

FIG.1: SUMMARY OF RESULT AND HOW WE COMPARE TO PROSPECTUS ESTIMATESResult Overview FY15P FY15A % Difference Comments

AdSense 6.01 6.29 4.7% Higher than expected traffic to websites

Direct CPC 12.42 12.61 1.5% Higher traffic, CPC rates and CPC conversion rates

Total Revenue 18.43 18.90 2.6%

Traffic Acquisition Costs -2.37 -2.40 1.2%

Operating Costs -8.79 -8.70 -1.1% Delay in employment of some new personnel

EBITDA 7.27 7.81 7.4%

EBITDA Margin 0.39 0.41 +187bps

Underlying NPAT 5.22 5.85 12.0% Tax expense was 5.4% lower despite NPBT 7% higher

Prospectus Estimates Vs BH Est. CY15P CY15E % Difference Comments

AdSense 7.521 7.80 3.7% Assumes continuing operating momentum and modest impact from AdSense on some Nestoria websites

Direct CPC 15.184 15.57 2.6% Slight uplift reflecting higher CPC rates and conversion rates

Total Revenue 22.705 23.37 2.9% Primarily driven by growth in traffic

Traffic Acquisition Costs -3.033 -3.04 0.2%

Operating Costs -9.250 -9.33 0.9% Expect larger uplift in employment expenses in 2H

EBITDA 10.422 11.00 5.5%

Underlying NPAT 7.751 8.09 4.4% Expect tax to normalise in the 2H to 26% for CY15E

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus, Baillieu Holst estimates

Page 6: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 6

Mitula Group (MUA)

Mitula Group (MUA) operates within the online advertising market, or more specifically the paid search advertising services market. Growth in online classified websites for real estate, cars and jobs across mature and developing markets has supported its growth trajectory.

Key drivers of our growth forecasts include; improved monetisation, acquisitions, growth in existing countries from improved operating metrics, entry into new countries and new verticals, and enhancement of its mobile offering.

Mitula 101

What is Mitula? Mitula is a vertical search engine with a portfolio of 51 websites across 38 countries and in 14 languages. Its two main brands are ‘Mitula’ and, following the acquisition of Lokku in May 2015, ‘Nestoria’. Through a single search query made through a single website users are able to search across listings from multiple verticals, namely real estate, jobs, cars and, in some countries, holiday rentals.

How it works: The Mitula websites aggregate and promote listings from advertisers on its websites under a “freemium” model, in most cases. Under this model, advertisers are able to display their listings for free and in return they receive web traffic via click throughs back to the hosting website, which contains full details of the listing. Advertisers then pay for Click Out volumes above what they receive for free. Advertisers generally provide direct data feeds (XML) to Mitula on a regular basis, and in some case, Mitula will be given permission to access the data from the advertiser’s websites.

Business model: We provide an outline of the business model and the relationship between key operating metrics below. For further details see the operating metrics section, which contains metrics updated as of June 2015.

FIG.2: BUSINESS MODEL OVERVIEW AND CURRENT OPERATING METRICS

Listings 

253 million 

Advertisers 

Total 13,059* 

4.7% Paying* 

Click Outs 

68.9m per month 

 

Visits 

47.3m per month 

Listings■ Listings from all advertisers are

delivered to Mitula Group ■ 253 million listings (as of Jun. ’15) ■ Growth: 85% (Jan. ’13 – Jun. ’15)

Advertising websites ■ Can be free or paid ■ Contains listings sent

to Mitula Group ■ Receives visits from

Mitula Group through Click Outs

■ Total advertiser growth 200% (Jan. ’13 – Apr. ’15).

■ Paying advertiser growth: 116% (Jan. ’13 – Apr. ’15).

Visits■ Listings are used to

attract visits to Mitula Group websites

■ Growth: 60% (Jan. ’13 – Jun. ’15)

Click Outs■ Visits to Mitula Group generate Click Outs which

generate Direct CPC Revenue ■ Currently ~60% of Click Outs generate revenue ■ Click Out growth: 104% (Jan. ’13 – Jun. ’15).

1.46 Click Outs Per Visit(Up from 1.1 in Jan. ’13) 

 Continued growth in conversion rate = more Click Outs available for sale = higher Direct CPC 

revenue 

AdSense 

Users engage with targeted 

Ads displayed by Google 

(revenue shared with Mitula)  

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus and Company Report, * figures as of April 2015, all others as of June 2015

Page 7: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 7

How do users find Mitula? Three strategies are utilised to attract users to its websites:

- Search engine optimisation (SEO): is the targeted process of indexing and optimising content to obtain a higher-ranking placement in organic search engines, such as Google. Part of this process includes optimising its websites for ‘long tail’ search, i.e. phrases that consist, on average, of between three to five keywords. General search engines, such as Google, are more focused on ‘short tail’ search queries. Mitula noted in the Prospectus, that SEO activities become more effective as websites mature which leads to increased visits, attracting new advertisers, and in turn, increased listings. Mitula utilises native language speakers from countries they operate in to ensure listings are indexed in the format most recognisable to native speakers of those specific regions.

- Direct engagement: Mitula had over 9 million subscribers to email alerts as at April 2015. Users are often prompted to enter their email address to notify them of when listings similar to their search criteria become available.

- User acquisition: Mitula drives traffic to its own website by purchasing traffic on a Cost per Click (CPC) basis from general search engines, such as Google. This only occurs in some countries where the ‘clicks’ can be profitably on-sold to its advertisers, i.e. CPC arbitrage.

We detail Mitula’s source of visits below and provide a table as a point of comparison with online classified businesses and vertical search engines in Appendix B.

FIG.3: SOURCES OF VISITS

Traffic acquisition5.2%

Organic Search72.4%

Direct, email and social media visits

22.4%

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

Who are the ‘advertisers’? Advertisers are generally classified portal websites, general classified websites or industry websites.

- Classified portal websites generally operate within a specific vertical such as real estate, cars and jobs and in one country. Online classified websites source listings from private sellers and often charge them either to display their listings or charge for premium placement on their websites.

- General classified websites generally operate across multiple verticals and often maintain listings free of charge but may charge companies a fee, based on impressions (CPM, linked to traffic) or user interaction (CPC) to display their advertisements on the website.

- Industry websites are operated by industry organisations, such as real estate franchise groups or automotive manufacturers.

Where do the advertisers come from? We detail a break-down of listings growth by region and percentage share of the 234 million listings (April ’15) by country below. It is noteworthy that whilst the USA represents a large proportion of listings, it accounts for an immaterial proportion of key revenue drivers such as visits and Click Outs.

Page 8: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 8

FIG.4: LISTINGS BY REGION FIG.5: LISTINGS BY COUNTRY – APRIL 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15

Mill

ion

s

Americas APAC EMEA

17.2%

11.4%

9.6%

8.6%

7.7%

6.5%

5.0%

4.9%

4.3%

3.3%

21.4%

USA

Italy

France

Brazil

Spain

India

Russia

UK

Poland

Germany

Other

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus (APAC- Asia Pacific, EMEA- Europe,

Middle East, Africa)

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

Why do advertisers use vertical search engines? Advertisers provide vertical search engines, such as Mitula, their listings with the objective to drive more users, or traffic, to their own websites. Refer to the market structure section below for further details.

What is Mitula’s technology and intellectual property? A key enabler of Mitula’s growth can be attributed to its highly scalable website architecture, where large volumes of new listings can be added without compromising website speed and performance. Mitula’s intellectual property is contained within its computer algorithms that operate across large volumes of listings to control listings quality, listings feed management, de-duplication of listings and SEO to promote listings (SEO details above). Mitula also has strong capabilities in performance tracking, payment management and user experience software applications. It is also worth noting Mitula has built up strong relationships with its advertisers which would not be easier or quickly replicable.

Updated operating metrics demonstrate growth trajectory

Overview: We provide detail on key operating metrics and note the key drivers of revenue growth for Direct CPC and Google AdSense below. For further detail on earnings sensitivities by operating metrics, see the Valuation section.

FIG.6: OPERATING METRIC SNAPSHOT Jan-13 Jun-14 Apr-15 Jun-15 Jun-15 YoY

Growth Jan-13 to Jun-

15 Growth Jan-13 to Jun-

15 CAGR

Listings (million) 136.5 183.7 234.0 253.2 38% 85% 29%

Visits (million) 29.6 37.9 50.7 47.3 25% 60% 21%

Click Outs (million) 33.7 52.6 67.8 68.9 31% 104% 34%

Click outs per visit 1.14 1.39 1.34 1.46 5% 28% 11%

% Click Outs Sold - 43% - 57%

Operating Metric

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus, Mitula Group report, Baillieu Holst estimates

Direct CPC Revenue: Key drivers are number of visits, page views, click through rates and the cost per click (CPC) that advertisers pay to Mitula. We also note the key source of visits which can be compared to peers in our table in Appendix B.

Google AdSense: Key drivers for AdSense are the number of visits, number of page views, the click through rate on each page and the cost per click that the advertisers pay to Google.

Page 9: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 9

FIG.7: TOTAL VISITS PER MONTH FIG.8: PAYING ADVERTISERS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15

Mill

ion

s

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

Visits: Mitula observes, from time to time, temporary decreases in visits to its websites due to general search websites reindexing their listings by changing their search algorithms. These changes are often progressively rolled out across geographic regions, i.e. not all at once. Seasonality for the underlying listings can also impact visits.

Paying advertisers: Paying advertisers have grown at 41% per annum across the last two years. Across this period the percentage of paying advertisings has reduced to 4.7%. However, this was largely due to greater recognition of the Mitula brand driving 63% per annum growth in advertisers.

Click Outs: Whilst Click Out growth has historically tracked growth in visits, Mitula intends to improve the number of Click Outs per visit as well as the percentage of Click Outs sold.

FIG.9: CLICK OUTS PER VISIT FIG.10: PERCENTAGE OF CLICK OUTS SOLD

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

High growth with high operating leverage

Growth trajectory expected to continue: The Mitula business has demonstrated high growth since inception and we expect this trend to continue. On a pro forma basis, we forecast MUA to deliver CY14A-CY17E revenue, EBITDA and NPAT CAGR of 35%, 52% and 54% respectively. Mitula’s growth initiatives include: 1) improved monetisation of its websites; 2) acquisitions; 3) growth into new countries and; 4) enhancement of its mobile website and app offering.

We provide an EBITDA bridge from CY14A to CY15E below, which is 5.5% ahead of prospectus estimates.

Page 10: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 10

FIG.11: CY14A TO CY15E EBITDA BRIDGE

$6.26M

$2.63M

$4.53M -$1.09M

-$0.84M-$0.18M -$0.28M -$0.03M $11.00M

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

CY14AEBITDA

AdSenseRevenue

Direct CPCRevenue

Traffic Cost EmploymentCost

TechnologyCost

Corp. OHCost

Other CY15EEBITDA

$m

Source: Baillieu Holst estimates, Mitula Group Prospectus

Revenue: We forecast total revenue growth from CY14A to CY15E of 44%, ahead of the MUA guidance for 40% on the back of strong operating momentum denoted in the FY15 result. The Mitula Group generates revenue from two sources, Direct Cost Per Click (CPC) and Google AdSense. As of FY15E, Direct CPC revenue is forecast to represent 67% of group revenue, with AdSense accounting for the remaining 33%. Our splits between revenue sources are broadly in line with prospectus guidance and we expect this relationship to hold across our forecast period to CY17E. We forecast CY15E Direct CPC revenue to grow to $15.6m, up 41% on the pcp. We forecast CY15E AdSense revenue to grow to $7.8m, up 51% on the pcp.

FIG.12: CY15E TO CY16E EBITDA BRIDGE

$11.0M

$2.39M

$5.43M -$1.02M-$0.91M

-$0.14M -$0.16M -$0.13M $16.46M

0

5

10

15

20

CY15EEBITDA

AdSenseRevenue

Direct CPCRevenue

Traffic Cost EmploymentCost

TechnologyCost

Corp. OHCost

Other CY16EEBITDA

$m

Source: Baillieu Holst estimates

Operating leverage: Mitula is forecast to display a high degree of operational leverage. In light of the strong aforementioned revenue growth, we expect total operating expenses (including traffic acquisition costs) across CY14A-CY17E to increase only 21% p.a. As a result, we expect CY14A-CY17E EBITDA margin expansion of 17.3% (+1730 bps) to 55.9%. In CY15E we forecast gross margins to decrease slightly in (-99bps to 87.0%), due to higher traffic acquisition costs (56% growth versus 44% revenue growth), however total operating expenses (excl. traffic acquisition costs) are only expected to increase 17% on the pcp. We expect this to drive CY15E EBITDA margins up a substantial 842bps to 47.1%. Across the FY16P period denoted in the prospectus, MUA note a 5% increase in employee expenses where it expects a 25% increase in average full time employees, offset by a mix change to lower cost Spanish employees from higher cost UK employees (16% decrease in

Page 11: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 11

av. cost per FTE). We expect this to support our CY16E estimates however note that we have deliberately allowed a larger buffer for employee costs (+15% in CY16E, +20% in CY17E) and technology expenses (+15% in CY16E and CY17E) as we see these as two cost centres which are vital to maintaining continued business momentum and are often also most vulnerable to cost overruns.

FIG.13: COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF REVENUE

13.0% 13.0% 12.5%

26.0%22.4% 21.2%

2.1%

3.9% 3.4%

2.7%2.4%

47.1%

52.8%

55.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

CY13A CY14A CY15E CY16E CY17E

Traffic acquisition expenses Employee expenses Operational expenses

Technology expenses Corporate expenses EBITDA Margin Source: Mitula Group Prospectus, Baillieu Holst estimates

Robust balance sheet to support growth initiatives

On a pro forma post offer basis at 31 December 2014, Mitula had a net cash balance of $15.9m (negligible debt). We expect continued growth in free cash flows to support growth initiatives. We forecast the net cash balance to grow to $22.4m in CY15E and accelerate to $34.3m in CY16E.

Improved monetisation: As at April 2015, 4.7% of Mitula’s 13,046 advertisers were paying Mitula for web traffic (Direct CPC revenue), Mitula aims to increase this percentage. As at June 2015, the Mitula Group’s Click Outs per visit ratio was 1.46, up from 1.14 in January 2013. As this ratio increases, more Click Outs are available for sale and thus Direct CPC revenue may increase. It is also worth noting the Nestoria websites do not currently operate any Google Advertisements and therefore receives no AdSense revenue. $1.5m of Mitula’s pro forma net cash balance is expected to be allocated to incremental sales and marketing.

Acquisitions: Mitula has stated its robust balance sheet (pro forma net cash of $15.9m, post offer) would enable it to opportunistically acquire complimentary businesses to enhance and consolidate its current positioning, as well as enable inorganic expansion into new geographies. The acquisition of Lokku allowed Mitula to improve financial performance whilst consolidating its presence in the real estate vertical in eight countries it operates in.

More websites in existing markets: Post the acquisition of Lokku, Mitula plans to roll-out the Nestoria branded website in existing geographies where Mitula operates. This is expected to generate more visits and thus more Click Outs for advertisers.

New countries: Mitula plans to launch the Mitula branded, and potentially Nestoria branded, websites into counties it currently does not operate. This will only be considered post extensive analysis of the markets potential. The roll-out into new countries is relatively easy and inexpensive. Human resources are the main incremental cost as native speakers are often employed to assist the algorithms in effectively indexing and aggregating listings. $2.4m of Mitula’s pro forma net cash balance is expected to be used to expand into new territories.

More devices: Growth in smartphone usage, as denoted in FIG 18, and Google’s preference for mobile friendly websites has underpinned Mitula’s strategy to further refine its mobile web versions of its websites and develop mobile and tablet apps in each country

Page 12: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 12

it operates in. $2.3m of Mitula’s pro forma net cash balance is expected to be used to develop its mobile offering further.

More verticals: Vacation rentals are a new potential vertical. Trials are currently operational in Spain, Argentina and Mexico. If successful, holiday rentals will be rolled out across other geographies.

Experienced management team

We believe the management team and the Board of Directors boasts a high level of experience.

Chairman: Simon Baker provides strong stewardship for the Board of Directors given his extensive experience within the online classified sector, including his tenure at REA Group (REA) from 2001 to 2008, Chairmanship of iProperty Group (IPP) from 2009 to 2012 and myriad investments in the online classified and e-commerce sector.

Key management: Key management have all had extensive experience within the online classified segment. Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Gonzalo del Poza (also Executive Director and Mitula Co-Founder) and Non-Executive Director Gonzalo Ortiz (Mitula Co-Founder) were Co-Founders of Ediciones Globaliza S.L, a leading Spanish property portal established in 1998. Chief Operating Officer (COO) Marcelo Badimon (Mitula Co-Founder) spent 9 years as Chief Technology Officer (CTO) at Globaliza.com.

The profile of the Board of Directors and senior management are contained in Appendix A.

Page 13: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 13

Industry dynamics

Market structure

Overview: Mitula categorises global online classified websites into three levels of maturity; low, medium and high. Mitula operates across all three market dynamics. In our view, the market structure forms the foundation of the investment case and demonstrates the structural growth potential when low maturity online classified markets mature. We provide some an outline of different markets and their features below, based on information within the Mitula Prospectus. Click outs are a good proxy for Mitula’s activity and growth potential. We provide monthly volumes of Click Outs per region and country below (FIG.14+15).

Low maturity markets: These are early stage markets where online classified websites are still in the establishment phase. These markets are often characterised by low but rapidly growing internet penetration rates compared to higher maturity markets. Examples of these markets include Indonesia and Pakistan. Key features of these markets are as follows:

- Market funding: Low,

- Revenue: Mainly AdSense with very low levels of paying advertisers,

- Direct CPC rates: Low,

- Mitula’s focus: Grow advertisers and user base whilst improving listing quality,

- Mitula market expectations: Direct CPC revenue will grow as higher funding drives market development and heightened competition.

FIG.14: CLICK OUTS BY REGION

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15

Mil

lion

s

Americas APAC EMEA Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

Page 14: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 14

Medium maturity markets: These are emerging stage markets where online classified websites have been established and are still in a high growth phase. These markets are often characterised by low but rapidly growing internet penetration rates compared to higher maturity markets. Examples of these markets include Brazil, India and Mexico. Key features of these markets are as follows:

- Market funding: High,

- Revenue: Direct CPC and AdSense, with growing levels of paying advertisers driven by high levels of visits and growing Click Out rates,

- Direct CPC rates: Moderate but growing,

- Mitula’s focus: Increasing Direct CPC rates,

- Mitula market expectations: Strong direct CPC revenue growth as strong financing drives heightened competition for visits thus increasing total classified website advertising expenditure and CPC rates.

FIG.15: CLICK OUTS BY COUNTRY TOP TEN – APRIL 2015

7.1

6.7

4.9

4.4 4.44.1 4.1

3.8 3.8

2.92.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Mexico Brazil Italy Colombia Chile Germany India Spain Argentina UK France

Mill

ions

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

High maturity markets: These are mature stage markets where online classified websites have been established and, either there is a dominant player in a particular vertical, or a high level of competition in a duopoly type structure. These markets are often characterised by high internet penetration rates compared to lower maturity markets. Examples of mature, fragmented mature markets include Spain and Italy (e.g. Immobilaire.it, Casa.it), where all competitors are trying to increase traffic and Click Out rates are strong. Examples of markets with dominant players include Australia, Germany and the UK, where, either second placed competitors (e.g. Domain.com.au) are buying traffic to challenge the market leader or, in some cases, market leaders buy traffic to solidify their position. Key features of mature markets are as follows:

- Market funding: Highly profitable or very well-funded,

- Revenue: Direct CPC and AdSense, with high levels of paying advertisers driven by high levels of visits and high Click Out rates,

- Direct CPC rates: High,

- Mitula’s focus: Increasing Direct CPC rates,

- Mitula market expectations: Strong Direct CPC revenue growth as increased profitability and funding drives heightened competition for visits thus increasing total classified website advertising expenditure and CPC rates.

Page 15: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 15

Competitors: Mitula competes with general search engines such a Google, other vertical search engines and ad networks for advertising expenditure of classified websites. Google is also a major customer with Mitula sharing AdSense revenue on its Mitula branded websites. Mitula note in its Prospectus that the significant differences between general and vertical search engines reduces competition for users. Refer to our comparison table in Appendix B. Mitula also competes with vertical search engines focused on one particular vertical, across multiple countries (e.g. Indeed, Adzuna). In terms of like-for-like vertical search engines, i.e. covering multiple verticals and multiple countries, Trovit is Mitula’s main competitor.

Favourable industry trends

Overall: The Mitula Group operates within the online search advertising market, a subset of the online advertising market. Online advertising represented ~25% of global advertising expenditure in 2014 and this is forecast to increase to 33% in 2018 (Source: Frost & Sullivan estimates based on IAB Online Advertising Expenditure reports).

FIG.16: ONLINE ADVERTSING EXPENDITURE, 2010 TO 2018

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

US

D B

illio

ns

North America Asia Pacific Europe Middle East & Africa Latam

Source: Frost & Sullivan estimates based on IAB Online Advertising Expenditure reports

Online advertising trends: The online advertising market has undergone strong growth and this is expected to continue. Overall market growth is forecast to grow at a 10% CAGR from 2014 to 2018, with regions such as Latin America and Asia Pacific growing above trend at 18% and 12% respectively (Source: Frost & Sullivan estimates based on IAB Online Advertising Expenditure reports). In our view, the core drivers of growing online advertising spend that support Mitula’s business model are: 1) internet penetration, 2) internet enabled smartphones and 3.) a shift to performance based pricing models.

- Internet penetration growth is a key enabler of growth within the online classified website market. It is therefore also a key enabler of growth for paid search advertising websites, such as Mitula and Google, which drive web traffic to classified websites. Whilst developed markets still display growth, the migration of print to online classifieds occurring concurrently with increasing penetration rates should support continued growth of paid search, most notably in emerging nations (See FIG. 17 below).

Page 16: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 16

FIG.17: INTERNET PENETRATION GROWTH OF A SAMPLE OF COUNTRIES MITULA OPERATES

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2008 2013

16% Average CAGR (2009 -2013)

3% Average CAGR (2009 -2013)

Source: International Telecommunications Union (ITU) Statistics, accessed May 2015, Mitula Group Prospectus

- Internet enabled smartphones are a key driver of internet access in emerging countries and a driver of online advertising spend. This is therefore a supporting trend for paid search advertising sites such as Mitula and Google, which drive web traffic to online classified websites. According to Google research referenced in the Independent Market Report in the Prospectus, 58% of smartphone users conduct a search on their smartphone at least once a day. See FIG.18 below.

FIG.18: SMARTPHONE GROWTH TRENDS SUPPORTIVE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Bil

lio

ns

Smartphone Subscriptions (LHS) % of Smartphones of Total

Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, Q4 2014, Mitula Group Prospectus

- Trends favouring performance-based advertising models (Cost Per Click (CPC) or Cost Per Lead (CPL)) versus traditional Cost per Mille (CPM) (a.k.a. Cost per Thousand Impressions) help cultivate the landscape which Mitula operates within. Performance based pricing models now account for ~65% of online advertising expenditure, up from 41% in 2005 (Source: IAB Internet Advertising Expenditure Report 2013).

Page 17: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 17

Valuation We believe MUA is undervalued in light of its strong growth prospects, operating leverage

and strong free cash flow.

We value MUA using a blended EV/EBITDA and DCF methodology.

A valuation summary is provided below.

FIG.19: VALUATION SUMMARY

Peer Group

Prem. / disc.

Applied Weight CY15E EBITDA

CY16E EBITDA

EV Net Debt Equity value

Valuation

DCF valuation $1.40

EV / EBITDA 14.0 -10% 12.6 25% 11.0 16.5 190.2 (15.9) 206.1 $1.00Average valuation $1.20

Premium / discount 0%

Price Target $1.20

Source: Baillieu Holst estimates

DCF Methodology

Our DCF valuation for MUA is $1.40 per share.

Assumptions: The assumptions underlying our DCF include a WACC of 12.2%, a risk free rate of 5.0%, an expected return on the market of 6.0%, a terminal growth rate of 3.0% and a beta of 1.2.

EV/EBITDA Methodology

EV/EBITDA: We use an EV/EBITDA methodology for our Mitula valuation. We believe EBITDA is generally a good indication of cash flow for online media and advertising services companies. Given different companies have different depreciation and amortisation rates, we believe EBITDA provides the best like-for-like comparison.

Comparable listed companies: We note that there are no direct listed comparable companies for Mitula. In light of this, we have used the online media and advertising services sector as the closest peer group for valuation purposes (FIG 19). When analysing the peer group we applied two quantitative filters to achieve what we view as the most appropriate comparable data set. These were: 1.) FY15F EBITDA margins above 20% and; 2.) FY15F EBITDA greater than $10m. The reasoning for these two basic filters was to exclude highly immature businesses with inadequate scale and, conversely, include businesses that display an adequate level of maturity and scale, comparable to Mitula. We display the excluded comparable company set at the bottom of FIG.19.

- The average FY/CY16F EV/EBITDA multiple across sector peers was 14.0x.

- We use a 25:75 weighting between our CY15E and CY16E estimates, which comes to $15.1m. The FY16 prospectus forecast is for $13.3m.

FIG.20: MITULA EV/EBITDA VALUATION RANGE

Low

(20% discount)

High

(in line)

Mid

(10% discount)

Applied multiple x 11.5 14.0 12.6

CY15E and CY16E blend A$m 15.1 15.1 15.1

Enterprise value A$m 169.1 211.4 190.2

Net debt/(cash) A$m -15.9 -15.9 -15.9

Equity value A$m 185.0 227.2 206.1

Per share valuation A$ $0.90 $1.11 $1.00

Source: Baillieu Holst estimates

Page 18: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 18

For the upper end of the range, we value Mitula in line with sector peers, which we justify on the basis of:

- higher forecast growth versus sector average across sales, EBITDA and NPAT,

- higher forecast EBITDA margins than peers, and

- lower capital intensity business model with access to high growth emerging markets.

We apply a 20% discount for the lower end of the range, which we justify on the basis of:

- a higher proportion of user traffic and revenue generated from Google relative to peers (see risks below), and

- a greater vulnerability to industry consolidation and the impact this may have on the value of Click Outs (see risks below).

Sensitivity

We provide a table denoting the EBITDA sensitivity by operating metric assumptions.

FIG.21: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR EARNINGS

Assumption Variance Pro Forma EBITDA Impact

(%) (A$ 000s) (%)

Visits +/- 10% 2,629 / (2,629) +/- 20%

Volume of Click Outs sold +/- 10% 1,748 / (1,748) +/- 13%

Direct CPC Revenue rate +/- 10% 1,748 / (1,748) +/- 13%

EURO : AUD exchange rate +/- 10% 1,026 / (1,026) +/- 8%

Page views +/- 10% 881 / (881) +/- 7%

Google advertising rates +/- 10% 881 / (881) +/- 7%

GBP : AUD exchange rate +/- 10% 384 / (384) +/- 3%

GBP : EURO exchange rate +/- 10% 369 / (369) +/- 3%

USD : EURO exchange rate +/- 10% 187 / (187) +/- 1%

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus based on impact to FY16P EBITDA

Key risks to the valuation range

Google – unfavourable changes to AdSense terms: Approximately 33% of revenues are expected to be generated from Google AdSense advertisements hosted on its websites that are clicked on by consumers. Mitula and Google share the revenue however the percentage shared with Mitula under the agreements with Google may be subject to change. In addition, Google may at any time and without cause, terminate its arrangement with Mitula. This may have a materially negative impact on Mitula’s financial performance.

Google – unfavourable changes to search engine algorithms: Circa 70% of user traffic is derived from organic search from search engines, such as Google. The computer algorithms powering search engines determine where search results appear and how high or low they are ranked versus other websites. The higher the websites rank in search results, the more visits they will receive and thus, in most cases, more revenue. An unfavourable change to search engine algorithms may lower the rankings of Mitula’s websites and thus negatively impact Mitula’s financial performance.

Industry consolidation: As online classified markets mature and consolidate to a lower number of advertisers, this may lead to less competition and less demand for Click Outs between advertisers and thus a reduction in Click Out rates or advertising spend from customers. This scenario may negatively impact Mitula’s financial performance.

Page 19: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 19

Technology: Increased usage of alternate devices to access the internet, such as smartphones and tablets, may change the way in which people utilise search. Mitula is required to adapt to these changes by developing improved technology and outcomes for users and advertisers. If Mitula is slower to adapt to these changes than its competitors, it may result in a reduction in visits to its websites and thus impact financial performance.

Other risks: Other risks include foreign currency risks, cancellation of Direct CPC contracts (operate on a month-to-month basis), hacking and vandalism of its IT systems or databases, political and social issues in emerging countries it operates in and inability to maintain key personnel.

FIG.22: GLOBAL ONLINE MEDIA AND ADVERTSING SERVICES

Code YE Fx Price Mkt CapNet

Debt EV

Australia/NZ (m) (m) (m) '15 '16 '15 '16 FY15F FY16F EBITDA EPS Sales

SEEK SEK Jun AUD 15.07 5,186 53 6,338 17.4 15.3 27.4 23.3 7.4 6.3 13% 18% 17% 43% 41%REA GROUP REA Jun AUD 43.40 5,716 -254 5,675 19.4 16.1 30.3 24.5 10.7 9.2 20% 24% 17% 55% 57%ISENTIA GROUP ISD Jun AUD 3.50 700 46 732 17.2 14.7 25.0 21.0 5.8 5.2 17% 19% 11% 34% 35%3P LEARNING 3PL Jun AUD 2.18 294 -24 278 16.5 12.0 26.3 20.4 6.4 5.3 38% 29% 21% 39% 44%CARSALES.COM CAR Jun AUD 10.91 2,619 149 2,821 17.9 16.0 25.3 22.1 9.0 8.1 11% 14% 11% 51% 51%TRADE ME TME Jun NZD 3.42 1,357 124 1,482 11.1 10.6 16.8 16.3 7.4 6.9 5% 3% 8% 67% 65%Average 15.5 16.6 14.1 25.2 21.3 7.8 6.8 18% 18% 14% 48% 49%

North America Code YE Fx Price Mkt CapNet

Debt EV

(m) (m) (m) '15 '16 '15 '16 FY15F FY16F EBITDA EPS Sales

ZHAOPIN ZPIN Jun USD 14.54 795 -616 3,929 12.7 10.8 18.8 16.0 3.1 2.6 18% 18% 20% 24% 24%ZILLOW GROUP Z Dec USD 72.42 4,272 -373 3,877 47.9 19.9 N/A 53.6 5.9 4.5 141% N/A 30% 12% 23%REIS REIS Dec USD 24.84 279 -18 252 15.8 15.3 41.4 46.9 5.1 4.7 4% N/A 9% 32% 31%TRUECAR TRUE Dec USD 5.91 484 -141 368 85.1 15.2 /A N/A 54.7 1.4 1.2 458% N/A 23% 2% 8%COUPONS.COM COUP Dec USD 9.20 762 -193 567 15.2 8.9 30.7 25.1 2.1 1.7 71% 22% 23% 14% 19%LIBERTY TRIPADV LTRPA Dec USD 29.05 2,177 125 6,709 13.0 10.2 N/A 27.9 4.1 3.3 27% N/A 24% 31% 32%GRUBHUB GRUB Dec USD 30.10 2,526 -313 2,219 20.0 15.0 47.6 36.7 6.1 4.7 33% 30% 28% 31% 32%MONSTER MWW Dec USD 7.28 664 117 819 7.0 5.6 17.3 11.4 1.1 1.1 24% 52% 4% 16% 19%GODADDY GDDY Dec USD 29.47 4,578 1,277 5,798 17.9 15.0 33.5 24.2 3.6 3.2 19% 39% 14% 20% 21%MEDIAGRIF MDF Mar CAD 17.76 276 19 295 10.1 9.6 16.2 14.2 4.0 3.9 5% 14% 5% 40% 40%TRIPADVISOR TRIP Dec USD 77.96 11,234 -256 10,776 21.9 17.0 37.6 29.4 7.0 5.7 29% 28% 23% 32% 33%TUCOWS TCX Dec USD 24.98 277 -8 270 11.5 9.7 23.1 18.0 1.6 1.4 19% 28% 12% 14% 15%EXPEDIA EXPE Dec USD 126.79 16,373 -12 16,084 14.1 11.1 31.2 23.3 2.5 2.1 26% 34% 18% 18% 19%PRICELINE PCLN Dec USD 1351.2 68,508 -404 70,720 19.5 16.2 24.3 20.1 7.6 6.5 21% 20% 17% 39% 40%HOMEAWAY AWAY Dec USD 31.07 2,981 -497 2,411 19.9 16.1 49.9 40.7 4.8 4.2 23% 22% 16% 24% 26%SHUTTERFLY SFLY Dec USD 42.18 1,585 -181 1,657 8.6 7.2 N/A 66.8 1.6 1.4 19% 413% 13% 18% 19%ANGIE'S LIST ANGI Dec USD 4.65 272 -5 261 9.2 6.3 19.5 11.3 0.7 0.7 45% 73% 8% 8% 11%VERISIGN VRSN Dec USD 71.07 8,066 -43 8,040 11.4 10.6 23.4 20.8 7.6 7.3 7% 12% 5% 67% 68%SOUFUN SFUN Dec USD 6.93 2,861 -229 2,775 36.3 18.7 48.1 19.4 3.3 2.5 94% 148% 33% 9% 13%DHI GROUP DHX Dec USD 7.98 433 84 505 7.0 6.7 19.1 16.3 2.0 2.0 4% 18% 2% 28% 29%Average -83.5 20.2 12.3 30.1 28.8 3.8 3.2 54% 61% 16% 24% 26%

UK/Europe/Other Code YE Fx Price Mkt CapNet

Debt EV

(m) (m) (m) '15 '16 '15 '16 FY15F FY16F EBITDA EPS Sales

ZOOPLA ZPLA Sep GBP 242.00 998 -31 959 22.5 16.1 31.0 22.4 10.1 6.5 40% 38% 54% 45% 41%RIGHTMOVE RMV Dec GBP 3720.0 3,586 -11 3,575 25.5 22.8 32.7 28.5 18.9 17.0 12% 15% 11% 74% 75%MONEYSUPER MONY Dec GBP 300.50 1,645 -13 1,622 15.2 14.1 22.4 20.9 5.9 5.5 7% 7% 7% 39% 39%JUST EAT JE/ Dec GBP 415.00 2,800 -164 2,642 48.1 30.1 71.6 45.6 11.6 8.8 60% 57% 32% 24% 29%LASTMINUTE.COM LMN Dec EUR 14.65 214 -90 111 9.3 3.9 /A N/A 18.0 0.4 0.4 136% N/A 11% 4% 10%EDREAMS EDR Mar EUR 2.27 238 471 632 6.8 6.3 13.9 10.1 1.4 1.3 7% 37% 5% 21% 21%Average 26.9 21.2 15.6 34.3 24.2 8.0 6.6 44% 31% 20% 35% 36%Total Average -13.7 19.3 14.0 29.9 24.8 6.5 5.6 38% 36% 17% 36% 37%

Remaining Peers Code YE Fx Price Mkt Cap Debt EV

(less mature) (m) (m) (m) '15 '16 '15 '16 FY15F FY16F EBITDA EPS Sales

LATAM AUTOS LAA Dec AUD 0.27 65 -13 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 7.9 6.1 N/A N/A 30% N/A N/AFREELANCER FLN Dec AUD 1.51 677 -20 646 N/A N/A N/A 44.4 18.0 13.1 -92% N/A 37% -4% 0%ACONEX ACX Jun AUD 4.40 725 -10 701 228.2 54.4 N/A 110.0 8.7 7.0 N/A N/A 25% 4% 13%IPROPERTY IPP Dec AUD 3.02 567 -12 555 123.9 45.0 143.8 59.2 16.3 12.5 175% 143% 30% 13% 28%MIGME MIG Jun AUD 1.25 328 -10 318 N/A N/A N/A N/A 26.9 9.1 N/A 15% 197% N/A N/AICAR ASIA ICQ Dec AUD 0.77 185 -15 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 23.8 12.5 N/A N/A 90% N/A N/AINUVO INUV Dec USD 2.83 69 -0 70 16.3 11.1 28.3 16.6 1.1 1.0 47% 70% 15% 7% 9%TRAVELZOO TZOO Dec USD 8.79 129 -55 74 8.7 8.2 48.8 33.4 0.6 0.5 7% 46% 3% 6% 7%SPARK NETWORKS LOV Dec USD 3.05 77 -12 63 9.1 6.8 23.5 15.3 1.2 1.1 34% 54% 9% 13% 16%Average -16.2 77.2 25.1 61.1 46.5 11.6 7.0 34% 66% 48% 7% 12%

Growth (FY15-FY16F)

FY16F EBITDA Margin

FY16F EBITDA Margin

FY15F EBITDA Margin

FY16F EBITDA Margin

Growth (FY15-FY16F)

Growth (FY15-FY16F)

Growth (FY15-FY16F)

FY16F EBITDA Margin

FY15F EBITDA Margin

FY15F EBITDA Margin

EV/Sales (x)

EV/Sales (x)

EV/Sales (x)

FY15F EBITDA Margin

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) EV/Sales (x)

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

Source: Bloomberg (6/8/2015)

Page 20: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 20

Company history Overview: The Mitula Group is a vertical search engine company spanning three core

verticals, namely; real estate, automotive and employment. In total, the company operates 51 websites covering 38 countries and 14 languages. The company operates under two major brands, Mitula and Nestoria. (FIG.20) with countries and brand)

History: The Mitula Group was formed post an internal capital restructure of Mitula Classified, S.L. (Mitula Classified) (100% ownership) in April 2015 and acquisition of Lokku Limited in May 2015. Mitula Group listed on the ASX on 1 July 2015 at $0.75 per share.

We provide an overview of the Mitula Groups operating websites and geographies.

FIG.23: MITULA – GEOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINT

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

Timeline: A timeline of the Mitula Group, including the Mitula and Nestoria brands since inception is found below.

FIG.24: MITULA GROUP TIMELINE

Mitula Nestoria

2006 Lokku founded, Nestoria launched UK

2007 Spain

2008 Italy, Germany

2009 Mitula foundedItaly, France, UK, Spain, USA, Germany, Chile, Argentina, India, Portugal, Brazil

2010 Belgium, Austria, NZ, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Netherlands

Australia, France, Brazil, India

2011 Russia, Switzerland, Colombia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Peru, Philippines, Poland, China, Venezuela, Romania

2012 Ecuador, Morocco, South Africa

2013 Turkey, Indonesia, UAE, Pakistan

2014 Mexico

2015 Ireland

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

Page 21: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 21

Supporting financial information Dividends: There will be no dividend paid for the period ending 30 June 2015 and Mitula

does not anticipate paying a dividend prior to June 2016. We do not forecast any dividends across our forecast period to CY17E, in light of the myriad growth strategies it is pursuing.

Financial analysis: We provide an overview of prospectus revenue, costs and growth metrics on a group and divisional basis below for comparison with our own estimates.

FIG.25: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS P&L ANALYSIS (% of Revenue) CY12A CY13A CY14A CY15P FY15P FY16P CY15F Stat.

AdSense revenue 18.0% 21.6% 31.9% 33.1% 32.6% 33.7% 36.4%

Direct CPC revenue 82.0% 78.4% 68.1% 66.9% 67.4% 66.3% 63.6%

Traffic acquisition expenses 22.5% 16.8% 12.0% 13.4% 12.9% 14.1% 13.6%

Employee expenses 44.2% 39.7% 32.3% 26.6% 31.0% 22.9% 25.4%

Operational expenses 3.1% 3.6% 3.7% 2.8% 3.3% 2.6% 3.3%

Technology expenses 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 4.0% 4.5% 3.3% 3.7%

Corporate OH (incl. office exp) 13.0% 10.2% 8.8% 7.4% 8.9% 6.2% 17.2%

Tax (% of NPBT) 29.6% 25.8% 26.0% 26.0% 28.0% 24.7% 45.6%

P&L GROWTH (%) CY12A CY13A CY14A CY15P FY15P FY16P CY15F Stat.

Group revenue N/A 30.1% 53.4% 40.1% N/A 42.0% N/A

AdSense revenue N/A 56.5% 126.2% 45.6% N/A 46.6% N/A

Direct CPC revenue N/A 24.4% 33.3% 37.5% N/A 39.8% N/A

EBITDA N/A 167.4% 136.6% 66.4% N/A 83.1% N/A

EBIT N/A 183.0% 145.2% 67.8% N/A 85.6% N/A

NPAT N/A 185.0% 153.5% 68.2% N/A 93.5% N/A

SEGMENT GROWTH (%) CY12A CY13A CY14A CY15P FY15P FY16P CY15F Stat.

Revenues N/A 30% 53% 40% N/A 42% -

Americas N/A 91% 168% 69% N/A 48% -

APAC N/A 85% 190% 96% N/A 78% -

EMEA N/A 19% 17% 13% N/A 27% -

EBITDA N/A 167% 137% 66% N/A 83% -

Americas N/A 114% 176% 68% N/A 45% -

APAC N/A 188% 244% 93% N/A 78% -

EMEA N/A 25% 22% 9% N/A 23% -

Corporate N/A 16% 30% 16% N/A 4% -

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

Operating assumptions for prospectus forecasts: The key movement in operating assumptions across the prospectus forecast period (CY14A-FY16P, CAGR%) is detailed as follows:

- Visits: 23% increase with 51%, 41% and 11% growth from APAC, Americas and EMEA respectively.

- Page views: 9% increase from more pages viewed on mobile devices with 15%, 12% and 7% growth from APAC, Americas and EMEA respectively.

- Click through rates for Google AdSense will remain constant.

- Google Ad rates: 6% and 3% increase from EMEA and APAC from more advertisers. 3% decrease from Americas due to increased LATAM traffic which has lower Google advertising rates.

- Click outs sold: 48% increase due to a larger sales team with 136%, 85% and 14% growth from APAC, Americas and EMEA respectively.

- Click through rates for Direct CPC: 8% increase based on higher quality and quantity of listings indexed.

- Direct CPC revenue rates: 9% decline due to higher volume of lower priced clicks sold, representing a 13%, 7% and 1% decline in Americas, APAC and EMEA respectively.

Page 22: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 22

Earnings reconciliation: We provide a NPAT bridge between CY15 statutory and pro forma forecasts below.

FIG.26: CY15 STATUTORY TO PRO FORMA NPAT BRIDGE

$3.10M$0.53M

$0.26M

$2.34M -$0.45M

$1.74M$0.20M $7.75M

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

CY15 StatutoryNPAT

LokkuAcquisition

Impact

Lokku acq. Andrestructure

costs

Interestexpense and

offer costs

Public companycosts

Offer costs(incl. dir. &mgmt perf

bonus)

Other non-recurring

CY15 ProForma NPAT

$m

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

Page 23: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 23

Appendix A: Directors and Management Board of Directors

FIG.27: BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Name  Position  Biography 

Simon Baker Independent, Non-Executive Chairman

Simon Baker was appointed Chairman of the Mitula Group on its formation in March 2015. Prior to this, Simon was a paid member of the Mitula Classifieds S.L. advisory Board since late 2010.

Simon was former CEO and Managing Director of the REA Group (ASX:REA) from 2001 through 2008. During his tenure at the REA Group he increased revenue from $3.8m in FY 2001 to $155.6m in FY 2008, increased the EBITDA from a loss of $6.2m in FY 2001 to an EBITDA profit of $36.6m in FY 2008, and increased the share price from $0.08 to a high of $7.49.

Simon was director and chairman of the iProperty Group Limited (ASX:IPP) from 2009 to 2012. During his tenure, he oversaw the growth of the business from a share price of $0.076 to a high of $1.32.

Simon is an angel investor in several online classifieds and e-commerce companies around the world including Vivareal, Redbubble, ArtsHub, Real Estate Investar, LaEncontre, Property Portal Watch, ListGlobally, Transmit Data and CarAdvice.

Simon holds a Bachelor of Science with a major in Computer Science from Monash University and a Masters of Business Administration from the Melbourne Business School.

Gonzalo del Pozo

CEO, Executive Director and Co-Founder

Gonzalo del Pozo was appointed CEO of the Mitula Group on 17 April 2015. Prior to this, Gonzalo was the co-founder and CEO of Mitula Classified, S.L. and also a member of its advisory Board.

Gonzalo is the co-founder and former CEO of Ediciones Globaliza S.L., a leading property portal operating in Spain established in 1998.

Gonzalo is a director and major shareholder in Inception Capital S.L., an investment fund with over 10 investments in internet companies.

Gonzalo is a director and Member of the Investment Committee of Onza Capital (Onza Venture Capital Investments, SCR de Regimen Común, S.A) a limited liability venture capital firm entered on the official register of venture capital entities at the Spanish National Securities Market Commission.

Gonzalo holds a Bachelor of Science with a major in Electrical and Electronics Engineering from Suffolk University.

Joe Hanna Independent, Non-Executive Director

Joe Hanna was appointed as an Independent Non-Executive Director of the Mitula Group in March 2015 and serves as Chairman of the Remuneration and Nomination Committee.

Joe became an investor in Mitula Classified in 2010.

Between November 2010 to October 2012, Joe consulted to the Mitula Classified management team to assist in establishing a presence in key South East Asian markets and in developing product and technology strategy.

Joe has extensive experience in online classifieds and search and is a founder of behavioural classifieds recommendation engine Predictive Match. Joe is co-founder and current CEO of xLabs Pty Ltd, a Melbourne based technology start up.

Joe spent 8 years at Fairfax Media Limited in senior roles including: Product and Technology Director – Online Employment at CIO Advantate, and Emerging Business and Technology Manager at The Age.

Joe holds a Bachelor of Business with a major in Computing from the University of Victoria.

Gonzalo Ortiz Non-Executive Director and Co-Founder

Gonzalo Ortiz was appointed to the Board of the Mitula Group on 17 April 2015. Prior to this, Gonzalo was the co-founder and Chairman of Mitula Classified, S.L. and also a member of its advisory Board.

Gonzalo is the co-founder and Chairman of Ediciones Globaliza S.L., a leading property portal operating in Spain established in 1998. He is also Chairman and Managing Director of Inception Capital S.L., an investment fund with over 10 investments in internet companies.

Gonzalo is the Investment General Manager and Member of the Investment Committee in Onza Capital (Onza Venture Capital Investments, SCR de Regimen Común, S.A) a limited liability venture capital firm entered on the official register of venture capital entities at the Spanish National Securities Market Commission.

Page 24: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 24

Gonzalo is co-founder of trazada.com, an online marketing company sold in 2011 to QDQ Group, part of the listed French company Pages Jaunes.

Gonzalo holds a Bachelor of Sociology with a major in Market Surveys for Technological Rollouts from Madrid University.

Sol Wise Independent, Non-Executive Director

Sol Wise was appointed as an Independent Non-Executive Director of the Mitula Group in March 2015 and serves as Chairman of the Audit and Risk Committee.

Sol spent five years from 2004 to 2010 with the REA Group Limited (ASX:REA) as the Group Financial Controller reporting directly to the CFO.

Sol is currently the CFO for CAV Investment Holdings Pty Ltd, an investment group associated with Simon Baker specialising in investment in online classifieds businesses around the world.

Sol is a CPA qualified accountant with more than 20 years’ experience in senior financial roles.

Sol has a Bachelor of Business from RMIT University Melbourne and is a Certified Practicing Accountant (CPA).

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus 

FIG.28 MANAGEMENT

Name  Position  Biography 

Marcelo Badimon

Chief Operations Officer and Co-Founder

Marcelo Badimon is Chief Operations Officer and a co-founder of Mitula Classified responsible for managing the company’s day-to-day operations and product and technology across the group.

Prior to joining Mitula Group, Marcelo spent 9 years as the CTO at Globaliza.com, a property portal operating in Spain and has experience as Technical Director at both Inception Capital Investment Fund and Onza Venture Capital Fund.

Marcelo holds a Bachelor of Industrial Engineer from University of Madrid, Spain.

Ricardo Gomez de Olea

Chief Financial Officer Ricardo Gomez de Olea joined Mitula Group in Sep 2009 as a Chief Financial Officer. He is responsible for overseeing the financial activities of Mitula, including financial planning and cash flow.

Prior to joining Mitula Group, Ricardo spent 9 years as CTO at Globaliza.com, a property portal operating in Spain.

Ricardo holds a Bachelor of Business Administration of Madrid University and Master of Business Administration from the Escuela de Organización Industrial, Spain.

Javier Heras Head of Traffic Acquisition Javier Heras joined Mitula Group in 2009 as a Software Engineer. He promoted to Development Manager in December 2012 and appointed as SEO Manager in June 2013.

Javier is responsible for traffic acquisition through SEO technology and Google AdSense implementation across the Websites.

Prior to joining Mitula Group, Javier spent 9 years as a Technology Manager at Globaliza.com, a property portal operating in Spain.

Javier holds a Bachelor of Software Engineer from the University of Madrid, Spain.

Javier Ortiz Head of Sales Javier Ortiz has been the CCO since joining Mitula Group in January 2010 and is responsible for Direct CPC Revenues across the Mitula Group.

Prior to joining Mitula, Javier spent 2 years as Europe Regional Manager for Selenium Loud Speakers and 3 years as Europe Regional Manager for Intelbras (Brasilian Telecom Manufacture Company).

He holds a Bachelor of European Business Management from Hull University (UK) and Madrid Chamber of Commerce (Spain).

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus 

Page 25: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 25

Appendix B: Supporting information FIG.29: COMPARISON BETWEEN VERTICAL SEARCH, GENERAL SEARCH AND CLASSIFIED WEBSITES

Vertical search websites General search websites Classifieds websites

Product

Examples

Multiple verticals – Mitula, Trovit, Nestoria. Single Verticals- Indeed, Trulia, Adzuna. Flights- Skyskanner, Momondo

Google, Yahoo, Bing etc

Real estate - Realestate.com.au, Domain.com.au, rightmove.co.uk, Zillow, Immobiliare.it. Jobs- Monster, Seek. Cars- Carsales.com.au, AutoTrader. General classifieds- Ebay, Gumtree

Countries Predominantly a single country Global Predominantly a single country

Content Usually classifieds listings All content – minimal limitations

Classified listings

Website structure Page with search functionality Page with results of search

Search Search results

Page with search functionality Page with results of search Page with details of each listing

Website results User may Click Out to advertiser’s website for full listings details

Click to source website for listings details

User may provide email or telephone details to advertisers to seek further details

Where listings come from

Provided by advertisers General search website goes to the source site and indexes the website pages

Original source of the listings

Customers

Customers Classifieds websites All websites From the original source of the listings

Sources of revenues Google AdSense (other ad networks) Direct CPC Revenue

Pay per click Pay to list on website Pay per lead generated

Users

Sources of users

SEO (general search websites) Paying advertisers (general search websites) Some direct users

Direct users

SEO Paying advertisers (including vertical search) Display advertising Direct users

Investment in Brand Buildings

Minimal – main focus on driving users to the websites through online advertising channels

Often extensive investment in brand building

Often extensive investment in brand building within the market operating

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

Page 26: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 26

FIG.30: RANKING AND PROPORTION OF TRAFFIC FROM SEARCH, CLASSIFED WEBSITES AND VERTICAL SEARCH

WebsiteCountry Ranking

Proportion of Traffic from Search Engines

Proportion of Traffic from Direct, Referrals,

Mail and other

Proportion of Search Traffic from Organic

Search

Proportion of Search Traffic from Paid Search

Australian Classified Websites

www.gumtree.com.au 14 29.4% 70.6% 99.6% 0.4%

www.realestate.com.au 17 29.8% 70.2% 96.3% 3.7%

www.seek.com.au 28 15.6% 84.4% 95.4% 4.6%

www.domain.com.au 77 20.6% 79.4% 91.9% 8.9%

www.carsales.com.au 101 26.3% 73.7% 85.4% 14.6%

www.onthehouse.com.au 447 74.5% 25.5% 99.2% 0.8%

www.allhomes.com.au 752 48.6% 51.4% 99.3% 0.7%

www.realestateview.com.au 995 56.3% 43.7% 96.0% 4.0%

www.homesales.com.au 1774 60.1% 39.9% 82.0% 18.0%

www.homehound.com.au 9926 74.3% 25.7% 100.0% 0.0%

Average 1413.1 43.5% 56.5% 94.5% 5.6%

Other Classified Websites

www.idealista.com 70 34.9% 65.1% 99.99% 0.01%

www.zillow.com 62 42.2% 57.8% 95.6% 4.4%

www.seloger.com 187 30.5% 69.5% 95.7% 4.3%

www.99acres.com 385 56.7% 43.3% 91.6% 8.4%

www.cars.com 625 33.9% 66.1% 95.2% 4.8%

www.rightmove.co.uk 40 34.9% 65.1% 99.9% 0.1%

www.zoopla.co.uk 115 45.4% 54.6% 98.8% 1.2%

www.motoring.co.uk 6594 26.6% 73.4% 83.7% 16.3%

www.immobilienscout24.de 59 23.9% 76.1% 91.6% 8.4%

www.autoscout24.de 67 28.9% 71.1% 94.9% 5.1%

www.stepstone.de 319 15.7% 84.3% 85.8% 14.2%

www.immobilaire.it 123 30.4% 69.6% 92.7% 7.3%

www.casa.it 238 31.4% 68.6% 88.8% 11.2%

Average 683.38 33.5% 66.5% 93.4% 6.6%

Vertical Search Engines

www.indeed.com 91 40.1% 59.9% 95.9% 4.1%

www.trulia.com 134 49.7% 50.3% 97.7% 2.4%

www.skyscanner.net 248 38.6% 61.4% 97.7% 2.3%

www.trovit.com 951 65.1% 35.0% 100.0% 0.0%

www.momondo.ru 1237 39.5% 60.5% 83.2% 16.8%

www.adzuna.co.uk 1410 31.9% 68.1% 90.3% 9.7%

Average 678.5 44.1% 55.9% 94.1% 5.9%

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus, further sourcing from SimilarWeb.com accessed May 2015

Page 27: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report. Page 27

FIG.31: OPERATIONAL COUNTRIES, VERTICALS AND BRANDS

Source: Mitula Group Prospectus

Page 28: Mitula Group (MUA) - baillieu.com.au · BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH Mitula Group Limited Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393  Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

BAILLIEU HOLST RESEARCH

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393 www.baillieuholst.com.au Page 28

This document has been prepared and issued by:

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393

Australian Financial Service Licence No. 245421 Participant of ASX Group Participant of NSX Ltd

Analysts’ stock ratings are defined as follows:

Buy: The stock’s total return is expected to increase by at least 10-15 percent from the current share price over the next 12 months.

Hold: The stock’s total return is expected to trade within a range of ±10-15 percent from the current share price over the next 12 months.

Sell: The stock’s total return is expected to decrease by at least 10-15 percent from the current share price over the next 12 months.

Disclosure of potential interest and disclaimer:

Baillieu Holst Ltd (Baillieu Holst) and/or its associates may receive commissions, calculated at normal client rates, from transactions involving securities of the companies mentioned herein and may hold interests in securities of the companies mentioned herein from time to time. Your adviser will earn a commission of up to 55% of any brokerage resulting from any transactions you may undertake as a result of this advice.

When we provide advice to you, it is based on the information you have provided to us about your personal circumstances, financial objectives and needs. If you wish to rely on our advice, it is important that you inform us of any changes to your personal investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.

If you do not provide us with the relevant information (including updated information) regarding your investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, our advice may be based on inaccurate information, and you will need to consider whether the advice is suitable to you given your personal investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. Please do not hesitate to contact our offices if you need to update your information held with us. Please be assured that we keep your information strictly confidential.

No representation, warranty or undertaking is given or made in relation to the accuracy of information contained in this advice, such advice being based solely on public information which has not been verified by Baillieu Holst Ltd.

Save for any statutory liability that cannot be excluded, Baillieu Holst Ltd and its employees and agents shall not be liable (whether in negligence or otherwise) for any error or inaccuracy in, or omission from, this advice or any resulting loss suffered by the recipient or any other person.

Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities or financial instruments.

Baillieu Holst Ltd assumes no obligation to update this advice or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent after it is given.

Baillieu Holst Ltd ABN 74 006 519 393

Australian Financial Service Licence No. 245421 Participant of ASX Group Participant of NSX Ltd www.baillieuholst.com.au Melbourne (Head Office) Address Level 26, 360 Collins Street Melbourne, VIC 3000 Australia Postal PO Box 48, Collins Street West Melbourne, VIC 8007 Australia Phone +61 3 9602 9222 Facsimile +61 3 9602 2350 Email [email protected] Bendigo Office Address Cnr Bridge & Baxter Streets Bendigo, VIC 3550 Australia Postal PO Box 40 North Bendigo, VIC 3550 Australia Phone +61 3 5443 7966 Facsimile +61 3 5442 4728 Email [email protected] Geelong Office Address 16 Aberdeen Street Geelong West Vic 3218 Postal PO Box 364 Geelong Vic 3220 Australia Phone +61 3 5229 4637 Facsimile +61 3 4229 4142 Email [email protected] Newcastle Office Address Level 1, 120 Darby Street Cooks Hill, NSW 2300 Australia Postal PO Box 111 The Junction, NSW 2291 Australia Phone +61 2 4925 2330 Facsimile +61 2 4929 1954 Email [email protected] Perth Office Address Level 10, 191 St Georges Terrace Perth WA 6000 Australia Postal PO Box 7662, Cloisters Square Perth, WA 6850 Australia Phone +61 8 6141 9450 Facsimile +61 8 6141 9499 Email [email protected] Sydney Office Address Level 18, 1 Alfred Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia Postal PO Box R1797 Royal Exchange, NSW 1225 Australia Phone +61 2 9250 8900 Facsimile +61 2 9247 4092 Email [email protected]