s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 1

Mitigation and AdaptationStuart HaszeldineUniversity of Edinburgh

6 yr

trend

Faster

than the

worst

IPCC

projection

CO2 rate of emission rising

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 2

World energy prediction(Business as usual)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear power

Hydro power

Other renewables

Fossil fuel use

doubles

in next 30yr

IEA 2004

World Energy outlook

Fossil fuels will still provide most of world energy

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 3

UK Electricity gap ?

Opportunity for “clean” construction

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 4

Scottish CO2

EITHER

Stop coal

and gas use

OR

Capture

CO2

OR nuclear

& renewable

Scottish Ambition:

80% cut by 2050

No carbon fueleffic

iency

Effi

cien

cyan

dbe

havi

our

Agricul

ture

, for

est,

soil ch

ange

s

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 5

CO2 emissions electricity

Coal with CCS

Coal with CCS

Gas with CCS

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 6

The vision

Scotland is well placed to

extract offshore resources

and re-use sites for storage

coal + gas + renewable

= diversity + variability

nuclear not needed

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 7

Scotland electricity generation

CO2

Shortage from 2008 ?Need 30%

renewables by

2020, 6 GW

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 8

Renewables: UKUK target 20% by 2010

EU 20% All-energy by 2020

Scotland 50% elect by 2020, 10.5 GW??

UK Obligation on generators to supply

20 %

10 %

2010 2020

Power from

offshore wind and

waves will take

time to build

UK commercial

2015 - 2020

20001990

Scotland

currently

2.7GW

(hydro+wind),

4GW applied)

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 9

CO2 capture and storage

10,000yr remedy: bury CO2

in aquifers or oilfields

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 10

The journey starts?

Not hereNoHere

NOW

World storage by 2020

at 550ppm = 17x Longannet

at 450ppm = 539x Longannet

Do noth

ing CO2

Sustainable

IF …….. by 2020, Scotland has 45% (average) electricity from

“renewables”, for 45% of the time. How is the other 80% made?

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 11

Why us?

Can humans choose to avoid 900% more emissions?

s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Climate Change Briefing 10 April 2008 Royal Museum of Scotland 12

Summary

• CO2 increasing. World will continue to use fossil fuel

• UK opportunity: need to renew electricity generation

• If no nuclear in Scotland,

need 6 -10.5 GW renewables by 2020

• Scotland can cut 30% CO2 from electricity by CCS

• Scotland has world class opportunities

for Renewables and Carbon Storage

• Must start NOW, climate change already committed