Misconception:“Nobody dies from overpopulation”

Death byFlooding…

Mud slides… Avalanches… Forest fires…

Droughts… Famine…Squalor…

Disease…Pollutants…Revolutions

& civil disorder…War…

Compare ‘Poverty’ & ‘Affluenza’

But many are rooted in excess human numbers and the unsustainable pressure they place on society & ecosystems

LONDON (Reuters), January 30th, 2012:

“The world is running out of time to make sure there is enough food, water and energy to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population & to avoid sending up to 3 billion people into poverty, a U.N. report warned on Monday.

As the world's population looks set to grow to nearly 9 billion by 2040 from 7 billion now, & the number of middle-class consumers increases by 3 billion over the next 20 years, the demand for resources will rise exponentially.”

United Nations Secretary-General's High Level Panel on Global Sustainability. http://www.un.org/gsp/

•In Sudan, South Korea has acquired 690,000 hectares of land to grow wheat.

•The United Arab Emirates, which already has 30,000 hectares in Sudan, is investing in another 378,000 hectares to grow corn, alfalfa, wheat, potatoes and beans.

•In Tanzania, Saudi Arabia is seeking 500,000 hectares.

•China has acquired 2.8 million hectares in the Democratic Republic of Congo to create the world’s largest oil-palm plantation and is negotiating for 2 million hectares in Zambia to grow jatropha.

Demographic take-over

Declining quality of life… ‘Dignity’… Privacy… Personal

Space… Tranquility… Choice… Democracy…

Human rights… Job opportunities… education & health and social care

facilities… Useful artifacts… Leisure options……

Reality check:Quantity versus Quality

Case study: ‘World of slums’

Sao Paolo, Brazil

Case study: ‘World of slums’In absolute terms, more people live in slums.From 2000-2010, the absolute numbers of slum dwellers increased from 776.7 million to 827.6 million

Why is that?

Many people probably will answer “migration from the countryside”. It is not the main reason.25% of that growth can be put down to that factor.50% of the increase of 55 million extra slum dwellers came from population growth in existing slum homes; 25% by people living on the edge of cities whose homes became engulfed by urban expansion.

Urban inequalities are indeed appalling but, whatever the cause,it will be a lost one unless the ‘numbers’ factor is not resolved

(Source: UN Human Settlements Programme)

Case study: YemenYemen’s population is set to increasefrom 23 million (in 2008) to 61 million in 2035.

In the governorate of Dhamar, the boom in newborns will put a huge strain on social facilities

• School enrollment jumped to around 1 million between 2004 & 2009,with an increase of 500,000 students

• More teachers will be required; approx. 23,765 teachers for primary education will be needed@ 1 teacher for every 26 students.

• The number of teachers required for secondary schools in Dhamar would increase by 2,187.

• Secondary education costs would rise to over YR 10 billion ($44 million).

• Extra classrooms would be required, at a cost of $738 million

The health sector suffer similar strains

• It would be extremely difficult to improve the current service levelwith continued population growth at the current fertility rate.

• Costs for the health sector are projected to increase by $25 million over 2009.

• The number of doctors needed to cover these requirements will rise to 630.

Misconceptions:

“Everyone could fitinto…”

The Netherlands is crowdedbut the Dutch don’t starve…

Reality check:‘footprints’ & ‘carrying capacity’

Misconception:“Enough foodto go around”

Reality Check

• The total amount of food produced in world today cannot be simply divided by number of mouths to ‘prove’ that there is enough to go round.

• Real life is more complicated

• In any case, people do not live‘by bread alone’

Reality check

Food today Recipefor ruin

Sustainable systems can only‘bake a smaller cake’ &

do it more slowly.The number of mouths,

not just diets and distribution,is critical

Misconception:“Real problem is rich”

Deforestation by shifting cultivators in Malawiwhose population has grown from 7 million in 1984 toover 14 million in 2010

Aquifer depletion is often tied closelyto population growth in poorer countries

Ghandi’s famous quote is a meaninglessplatitudewithout numbers

Is “every man”7 billion,17 billion,27 billion?……How many is ‘every’?

‘Need’ is alsoa slippery concept and‘greed’ is far from easy to eradicate