THE EXPERTSRacing Post Weekender 12.09.12 – 16.09.1224

SteveMiller

Our dosageexpert weighsup the chiefthreats toCamelot onSaturday

No going past Camelot, withMichelangelo best of the rest

212 DONCASTER ST LEGER CONTENDERS (Table 1)

Horse Sire/damsire Profile DI CDImperial Monarch Galileo/Slip Anchor 3-0-10-9-4 = 26 0.44 -0.42Chamonix Galileo/Darshaan 3-0-10-5-2 = 20 0.67 -0.15Michelangelo Galileo/Darshaan 3-0-12-5-2 = 22 0.69 -0.14Ursa Major Galileo/Shirley Heights 5-1-14-6-4 = 30 0.76 -0.10Camelot Montjeu/Kingmambo 6-1-17-8-0 = 32 0.94 0.16Thomas Chippendale Dansili/Sadler’s Wells 3-2-12-4-1 = 22 1.00 0.09Encke Kingmambo/Sinndar 9-3-21-10-1 = 44 1.05 0.20Guarantee Authorized/Cadeaux Genereux 3-1-9-3-0 = 16 1.13 0.25Thought Worthy Dynaformer/Diesis 6-2-23-1-2 = 34 1.34 0.26Dartford Giant’s Causeway/Kris S 6-2-31-1-0 = 40 1.42 0.33Main Sequence Aldebaran/Pivotal 8-3-11-1-1 = 24 2.20 0.67

DOSAGE PROFILE OF PREVIOUS DONCASTER ST LEGER WINNERS (Table 2)

Year Horse DI CD2011 Masked Marvel 0.68 -0.132010 Arctic Cosmos 1.77 +0.502009 Mastery 1.00 0.002008 Conduit 0.76 -0.092007 Lucarno 1.34 +0.262006 Sixties Icon 1.00 +0.232005 Scorpion 1.00 +0.192004 Rule Of Law 2.11 +0.172003 Brian Boru 1.05 +0.182002 Bollin Eric 1.00 +0.142001 Milan 0.77 -0.052000 Millenary 0.83 +0.021999 Mutafaweq 1.07 +0.141998 Nedawi 0.92 +0.091997 Silver Patriarch 1.00 +0.031996 Shantou 1.67 +0.381995 Classic Cliché 0.83 0.001994 Moonax 0.73 -0.04

Average Dosage index: 1.08

THE DOSAGE systemcomes into its ownwhen analysing Groupraces that require a

test of stamina. It also gives usan edge when there is scantform at the distance to go onand in situations when thosetaking part are still largelyunknown quantities. As wehave seen in the past, the St Leger presents an idealopportunity to give the systeman airing.

Winning criteriaThe average dosage index (DI)for the past 18 winners of therace is 1.08, with the ‘righttypes’ having a DI of about1 or lower (the lower the DIthe more stamina aptitude). Ofthese winners, theoverwhelming majority satisfythis requirement – see the DIcolumn in table 2.

Table 1 shows the 11remaining in this season’s finalClassic at the five-day stage. Itis arranged with those showingthe most stamina potential atthe top and the least at thebottom, ranked in order of DI.

VersatileThe anticipation ahead of thisyear’s race is intense withCamelot bidding to becomethe first colt since Nijinsky tosecure horseracing’s elusiveHoly Grail.

The Montjeu colt has alreadywon three Classics this seasonand his credentials to becomethe first English Triple Crownwinner since 1970 arepersuasive. His DI of justbelow 1 suggests he comesinto his own at distances at orbeyond 1m4f and the fact thathe won the 2,000 Guineas infine style, almost counter tohis natural stamina attributes,coming from off the pace andusing his turn of foot tooutperform his rivals, leaves usin no doubt of his ability toquicken. His chances at thislonger trip are notcompromised by his Guineassuccess, but rather enhanced.

Camelot is a broad-spectrumhorse showing a good spreadof points in his profile and thetype that can show off hisversatility by winning over arange of distances. AidanO’Brien has expressed hisreservations about “pushingthe boat out” in terms ofdistance. He need not worry,the Dosage suggests that thistest will not prove beyond himand he will again take a worldof beating.

It is ironic that the one weidentified before the Derby asa St Leger prospect isCamelot’s stablemateImperial Monarch. The colthas subsequently beensuccessful at 1m4f in theGrand Prix de Paris andappears at the head of our

by Dynaformer out of theDiesis mare Vignette. Althoughthe right type to do well here,he was comprehensivelybeaten by Camelot at Epsomand is unlikely to improveenough at this trip to worrythe favourite. There are othersabove him in our table withmore convincing claims.

Michelangelo, one of fourby Galileo and two boastingthe Galileo/Darshaan cross inthis year’s race, is one suchcontender from the Gosdenyard. A Listed winner at 1m3f,he looks likely to improveagain for a step up in trip,although he also looksvulnerable to colts who canquicken in the style ofCamelot.

Gosden’s Dartford has asingle point in the staminawing of his Dosage profile andlooks set for pacemaker duties.

Thomas Chippendale,trained by Sir Henry Cecil, isprimed to take his chance butis another who is not expectedto improve enough at the tripto bother the favourite.

Godolphin has won five St Legers and is represented byEncke from Mahmood AlZarooni’s yard. TheKingmambo colt had to settlefor third in the Great Voltigeurbehind Thought Worthy andMain Sequence. He derivesgood stamina from his damside and has some chance ofreversing form with these atthis longer trip.

Derby and Great Voltigeurrunner-up Main Sequence isready to take his chance fortrainer David Lanigan.However, the Aldebaran coltranks at the foot of our tableand others are more suited tothis stamina test. The Prix Nielis also under consideration,which could be a better option.

The William Haggas-trained

table for stamina aptitude (aposition occupied by MaskedMarvel last season), being aGalileo/Slip Anchor cross. Heis liable to show pronouncedstamina attributes and looks aprime St Leger type. He isrelatively unexposed andwithout the presence of hisillustrious stablemate wouldhave been an irresistible bet.But if the point of runningCamelot in this is to secure thecoveted Triple Crown,Ballydoyle will hardly bebusting a gut to get him beatby one of their own. ImperialMonarch’s role looks to be asupporting one for Camelot.

O’Brien also has theunexposed Chamonix, a12-length maiden winner at1m6f. With Darshaan as hisdamsire, he is the type youwould expect to see in thisrace.

If successful in his assault onTown Moor, O’Brien willbecome will become the firsttrainer to win all five EnglishClassics in a season.

Clarehaven challengeIt seems logical that the mostpotent threat to Ballydoyle willcome from outside rather thanfrom within. John Gosden,who has trained three of thepast five winners of this race,including the last two, stillholds a strong, albeit depletedhand after the defections ofIrish Oaks winner GreatHeavens and decisiveNewmarket scorer Shantaram.

Even without these ThoughtWorthy and Michelangelo posea credible dual threat. TheGeorge Strawbridge-ownedGreat Voltigeur victor andDerby fourth ThoughtWorthy is a brother to 2007St Leger winner Lucarno (whowas also fourth in the Derby),

Guarantee only made hisdebut in June but has made upfor lost time with three straightwins culminating in theMelrose Stakes. The colt hasalready won at 1m6f andHaggas has given son ofAuthorized the green light totake on Camelot and co afterimpressing in recent work.

Ursa Major, winner of fourof his six appearances, tookthe Group 3 Irish St Leger trialover 1m6f at the Curragh ingood style for trainer Thomas

suitability the following lookbest placed: Imperial Monarch(DI 0.44), Chamonix (0.67),Michelangelo (0.69), UrsaMajor (0.76) and Camelot(0.94).

Conclusion CAMELOT must take thebeating on all known form.Imperial Monarch andChamonix score highly interms of stamina aptitude, butif we assume that Camelot’sstablemates are there tosupport his Triple Crown bidrather than muddy the waters,it is sensible to see the mainthreat coming from outsideBallydoyle.

Michelangelo and Ursa Major could be bestplaced in terms of staminaaptitude to take advantage ofany chinks in Camelot’sarmour.

Thought Worthy andEncke are decent and haveproven resolute at 1m4f, whileGuarantee is fast improvingand has already won at thetrip.

Verdict:1. CAMELOT HHH2. Michelangelo3. Imperial MonarchHII (to place)

Carmody. The trip will proveno problem for the son ofGalileo out of a ShirleyHeights mare, with 10 pointsin the stamina wing of hisDosage profile.

Speed/stamina balanceThe average DI for the past 18winners is slightly above 1,with the ideal type for the racebelow 1.

ShortlistWith regard to stamina

ImperialMonarch