millenium simulations at ipsl thor: c. frankignoul, g. gastineau, c. marini, j. mignot escarsel: m....
TRANSCRIPT
Millenium simulations at IPSL
THOR: C. Frankignoul, G. Gastineau, C. Marini, J. Mignot
Escarsel: M. Khodri, J. Servonnat, P. Yiou
THOR CT1 meeting, Bergen, Oct 1-2 2009
The IPSL-CM4 coupled model
LMDZ: atmospheric physics and dynamics
horizontal resolution 96x72, 19 vertical layers
OPA: ocean dynamics based on a 2 degrees Mercator mesh (orca), 31 vertical levels
LIM: sea-ice dynamics
and thermodynamics
ORCHIDEE: land surface
OASIS
Marti et al 2008 http://mc2.ipsl.jussieu.fr/simules.html,http://igcmg.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Doc/IPSLCM4/
The IPSL-CM4 coupled model
Simulations:
- CTRL1000 years control simulation, preindustrial GHGs and tropospheric aerosols concentrations
- SOL 950 years (1001-1950) years simulation including solar forcing, historical GHGs (Joos et al. 2008) and preindustrial tropospheric aerosols concentrations
- SOLVOL 300 years (starting yr 850) simulation including solar +volcanic forcing
TS
I C
row
ley
(2
00
0),
W/m
-2
(a)13
63
13
65
13
67
The solar forcing
1000 1200 1600 1800 20001400
Calendar time
SOL
SOLVOL Krivova , pers. com. 2009
Amman et al. 2007: -0.25% TSI at the Maunder minimum
More recent estimates: -0.1 % at the Maunder minimum
SOL – northern hemisphere temperatures
Reconstructions overlap Osborn and Briffa, IPCC AR4, Solomon et al. 2007
Good global agreement,
Cold « bias »(Missing volcanoes, which would have decreased the warming between 1700-1900.)
Correlation with TSI: 0.74
Servonnat et al., in prep.
No
rth
ern
He
mis
ph
ere
su
rfa
ce t
em
pe
ratu
re a
no
ma
lies
(°C
re
f 1
75
0-1
85
0)
Prein
d.
CT
RL
Ma
nn
et a
l 2
008
EIV
Mo
be
rg e
t a
l 200
5C
row
ley &
L
ow
ery 20
00
Am
man
n &
W
ahl 2
007
(a)
(e)
(d)
(c)
(b)
SOL – northernhemisphere temperatures
Comparison with four individual reconstructions
Servonnat et al., in prep.
SOL – regression of temperature on TSI
• 1000-1800 annual mean
• Max sensitivity with 15 yrs lag: 0.109°C/W.m-2
• sensitivity over sea ice > over land > over ocean
Servonnat et al., in prep.
Lag 15 yrs
CTRL/SOL surface temperature variability
CTRL
SOL
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0°
100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0°
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
Co
ld p
erio
d
(168
4-17
34 A
D)
War
m P
erio
d
(123
0-12
80 A
D)
- 1
SD
+ 1
SD
Annual mean Summer Winter
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(k)
(l)
(i)
(j)(h)
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
0.20.611.41.82.22.63
- 0.2- 0.6- 1- 1.4- 1.8- 2.2- 2.6- 3
Servonnat et al., in prep.
CTRL/SOL surface temperature variability
CTRL
SOL
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0°
100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0°
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
Co
ld p
erio
d
(168
4-17
34 A
D)
War
m P
erio
d
(123
0-12
80 A
D)
- 1
SD
+ 1
SD
Annual mean Summer Winter
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(k)
(l)
(i)
(j)(h)
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
0.20.611.41.82.22.63
- 0.2- 0.6- 1- 1.4- 1.8- 2.2- 2.6- 3
Servonnat et al., in prep.
Global
Land
Ocean
= 75%
= 78%
= 73%
Global
Land
Ocean
= 71%
= 73%
= 71%
Global
Land
Ocean
= 76%
= 83%
= 73%
Global
Land
Ocean
= 73%
= 80%
= 70%
Global
Land
Ocean
= 67%
= 57%
= 72%
Global
Land
Ocean
= 70%
= 70%
= 70%
CP
WP
Annual mean
Summer Winter
-1S
D/+
1S
D
SOL
SOLVOL – sensitivity of the atmospheric model to volcanic forcing
b) Observations (Robock, 2000)
Anomalous response of LMDZ to Mt Pinatubo eruption (DJF 1991-1992)
Temperature in the low troposphere
500mb geopotential
a) LMDZ
Khodri, pers. com.
SOLVOL – volcanic forcing in the IPSL model• Sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere• Volcanic eruption with a VEI>4• Essentially tropical eruptions
Optic thickness of the volcanic aerosols for the Mt Pinatubo eruptions (1991-1992)
months latitude
latit
ude
altit
ude
DJF 1991-1992
• Mie code to compute the simple diffusion albedo and asymetry factor for the sulfate stratospheric aerosol in water phase
• Implementation of the optic thickness on the 2 layers above the tropopause
Khodri, pers. com.
Atlantic thermohaline circulation
CTRLSOLSOLVOL
Atlantic thermohaline circulation
MSF average CTRL
CTRLSOLSOLVOL
North Atlantic deep convection
Maximum mixed layer depth in March
CTRL
Barotropic streamfunction
CTRL
Horizontal circulation in the North Atlantic
CTRL
Horizontal circulation in the North Atlantic in winter
CTRL
Horizontal circulation in the northern North Atlantic
CTRL
Horizontal circulation in the northern North Atlantic in winter
CTRL
Plans
Use of IPSL_CM5 model: ORCA2 x LMDZ (96x95x39)
run should start before end 2009
Only SOLVOL experiment? forcings?
- THC variability on decadal to centennial timescale – process studies-Ocean-atmosphere feedback- internal vs externally forced variability
Implémentation de l’impact radiatif des aérosols volcanique dans MDZ
Code de Mie:
Calcul de l’albédo de simple diffusion (cg) et le facteur d’asymétrie (piz) pour les aérosols stratosphériques sulfatés en phase aqueuse (forme binaire H2SOA/H2O: 75%/25%)El Chichon + Pinatubo (SO4 droplet):
# R : rayon modal en nm : 500.0# Sigma : largeur de distribution: 1.30
# w1 w2 : albedo de simple diffusion sur les 2 bandes du visible : 1.000 0.995 # g1 g2 : paramËtre d'assymÈtrie sur les 2 bandes du visible : 0.7079 0.7548
Implémentation de l’épaisseur optique (Tau) sur les 2 couches atmosphériques au dessus de la tropopause
Epaisseur optique des aérosols volcaniquePour l’éruption du Mt Pinatubo (1991-1992)
mois latitude
latit
ude
altit
ude
DJF 1991-1992
Khodri, pers. com.
Volcanic Explosive Index, VEI (Newhall y Self, 1982)
VEI HAUTEUR DU
PANACHEVOLUME D’ÉJECTION
CLASSIFICATIONEXEMPLE
0 <100 m 1000s m3 Hawaiano Kilauea
1 100-1000 m 10000s m3 Hawaiano/Estromboliano
Stromboli
2 1-5 km 1000000s m3 Estromboliano/
Vulcaniano Galeras (1992)
3 3-15 km 10000000 m3 Vulcaniano Ruiz (1985)
4 10-25 km 100000000s m3 Vulcaniano/Plineano Galunggung
(1982)
5 >25 km 1 km3 Plineano St. Helens (1980)
6 >25 km 10s km3 Plineano/Ultra-Plineano Krakatau (1883)
7 >25 km 100s km3 Ultra-Plineano Tambora (1815)
8 >25 km 1000s km3 Ultra-Plineano Toba (74 ka)
Volcanic eruptions with stratospheric impact : VEI > 4
Khodri, pers. com.
Mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic
Monthly mean maximum
Standard deviation of the March monthly values
De Boyer Montégut et al. 2005
Annual mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Time series of the AMOC maximum
Temporal characteristics of the maximum of the annual mean AMOC
Leading mode of SLP variability over the North Atlantic
2nd EOF of SLP over the North Atlantic
Atlantic annual mean SST and SSS
Reynolds
Reverdin
ENSO in IPSL-CM4
First EOF of tropical Pacific SST
Regression of the SLP on the corresponding principal component
64%
ENSO
Model
Observations (Reynolds and NCEP)
65,5 %
64 %