Mike TreadawayDirector of ResearchFischer Family Trust

Using FFT Live

Primary Schools

Contents

Data Landscape2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Value-Added

Contextual Value-Added

3 Year Summaries

Estimates

FFT

DfE

Whether or not to Contextualise?Type of Analysis Advantages Disadvantages

Raw Outcomes e.g. %L4+ Provides a view as to whether pupils are attaining the

knowledge and skills needed for their next stage of

education?

When used to compare schools, depends strongly

upon attainment of the school’s intake.

Value-Added Enables a focus upon progress irrespective of context e.g.

How well are our FSM pupils doing compared to our non-

FSM pupils?

Comparing value-added outcomes for schools with

different contexts and make-up of intakes can be

misleading.

Contextual Value-Added Aims to take account of factors which are outside the school’s control and which,

from analysing national data, can be shown to influence

progress.

If used to look ahead (estimates) then danger of ‘self-fulfilling prophecy’ for

pupils in groups who currently under-perform nationally.

Differences – VA and CVA• Compare PA (Value-added) and SX (Contextual Value-Added)

outcomes for KS2->4 in 2009/10.– Use KS2 Average Points Score as outcome measure.– Look at how many change significant state.– Analyses by grouping schools in different socio-economic contexts.

School VA compared to CVA

Context Better Worse

Q1 14% 4%

Q2 9% 8%

Q3 7% 11%

Q4 11% 9%

School Change in VA Score

Context Avg Min Max

Q1 +0.30 -1.6 +1.6

Q2 +0.01 -1.6 +3.0

Q3 -0.08 -1.6 +1.9

Q4 +0.05 -1.8 +2.2

To get some idea of the likely change for your school, compare PA and SX value-added outcomes on FFT Live or in FFT Self-Evaluation reports.

To get some idea of the likely change for your school, compare PA and SX value-added outcomes on FFT Live or in FFT Self-Evaluation reports.

In Lambeth, most schools have VA better than CVA – this is mainly related to the progress of ethnic

minority pupils.

In Lambeth, most schools have VA better than CVA – this is mainly related to the progress of ethnic

minority pupils.

Recommendations

Expected Progress• DfE Approach

– Whole Levels, Subject Specific Input– So, for example, 84% L2 in Mathematics at KS1 attained L4+ at KS2 in

2011

• FFT Approach– Differentiate within levels where possible (2ABC)– Take into account prior attainment in English and Mathematics

• DfE Approach– Whole Levels, Subject Specific Input– So, for example, 84% L2 in Mathematics at KS1 attained L4+ at KS2 in

2011

• FFT Approach– Differentiate within levels where possible (2ABC)– Take into account prior attainment in English and Mathematics

KS1 Maths KS2 L4+ Maths

2C 58%

2B 86%

2A 97%

KS1 English L4+ KS2 Maths

1 80%

2C 82%

2B 86%

2A 89%

3 92%

FFT Live

Includes:• Latest

updates• Future

releases• Help Files

Includes:• Latest

updates• Future

releases• Help Files

SETS

• Key Changes for 2011– Default changed to PA (Prior Attainment)– SX (Contextual VA) continues to be available– Option to SORT available on Pupil Estimates report

• Key Changes for 2011– Default changed to PA (Prior Attainment)– SX (Contextual VA) continues to be available– Option to SORT available on Pupil Estimates report

Self-Evaluation

Significant Areas Grid• Range of pupil groups and indicators• KS1 Contextual and KS1->2 VA / CVA• 3 Year summary, Overall + Trends

Significant Areas Grid• Range of pupil groups and indicators• KS1 Contextual and KS1->2 VA / CVA• 3 Year summary, Overall + Trends

Significant Areas Detail• Shows actual attainment and VA/CVA scores for

each year• Can be accessed by clicking on Significant Areas grid

Significant Areas Detail• Shows actual attainment and VA/CVA scores for

each year• Can be accessed by clicking on Significant Areas grid

Pupil Value-Added• KS1->KS2, VA or CVA• Highlights where progress is mode than half a

NC level above or below national average

Pupil Value-Added• KS1->KS2, VA or CVA• Highlights where progress is mode than half a

NC level above or below national average

EstimatesSchool Summary Estimates• Range of Indicators and Pupil Groups• A – PA 50th Percentile; B – SE 50th Percentile,• D – SE 25th Percentile; S – School Previous

School Summary Estimates• Range of Indicators and Pupil Groups• A – PA 50th Percentile; B – SE 50th Percentile,• D – SE 25th Percentile; S – School Previous

School Subject Estimates• Core Subjects including Reading and Writing and Expected

Progress for English and Mathematics• Outcomes for all levels (not just L4+ and L5+)• Some pupil groupings available

School Subject Estimates• Core Subjects including Reading and Writing and Expected

Progress for English and Mathematics• Outcomes for all levels (not just L4+ and L5+)• Some pupil groupings available

Pupil Summary Estimates• Types A, B, D• Range of indicators (overall level, L4+, L5+)• Reading and Writing not included

Pupil Summary Estimates• Types A, B, D• Range of indicators (overall level, L4+, L5+)• Reading and Writing not included

Pupil Subject Estimates• Can be accessed directly or from School Subject Estimates• Show likelihood of attaining all levels (L2 to L5)• Also provides option to show ‘most likely level’

Pupil Subject Estimates• Can be accessed directly or from School Subject Estimates• Show likelihood of attaining all levels (L2 to L5)• Also provides option to show ‘most likely level’

Using Estimates

• Estimate -> Prediction -> Target• Consider option of range - realistic and ambitious• Don’t add up ‘estimated levels’

• Estimate -> Prediction -> Target• Consider option of range - realistic and ambitious• Don’t add up ‘estimated levels’

Two basic approachesTwo basic approaches

• Start with pupil data• Take into account other

factors• Add up and compare with

overall estimates• Revise as necessary to

arrive at overall targets

• Start with pupil data• Take into account other

factors• Add up and compare with

overall estimates• Revise as necessary to

arrive at overall targets

• Use overall estimates and evaluation of past performance to draft overall targets

• Use ‘RANK’ option in FFT School Subject Estimates to set overall figure at your overall targets

• Click on link to pupil estimates

• Use overall estimates and evaluation of past performance to draft overall targets

• Use ‘RANK’ option in FFT School Subject Estimates to set overall figure at your overall targets

• Click on link to pupil estimates

Adding up estimated levels – why not?• Consider a group of 20 ‘identical’ pupils• They all have the same estimates:

• Consider a group of 20 ‘identical’ pupils• They all have the same estimates:

L2 L3 L4 L5+ GM HGM GA

5% 20% 50% 25% 4 25% 5

If we add up the ‘GM’ gradesIf we add up the ‘GM’ gradesL2 L3 L4 L5

0 0 20 0

If we average the ‘chances’ for each level and multiply by

number of pupils

If we average the ‘chances’ for each level and multiply by

number of pupils

L2 L3 L4 L5

5% 20% 50% 25%

1 4 10 5

Note : Adding up predicted or target grades is fine – assuming that they are not simply just using

unmoderated estimates!

Note : Adding up predicted or target grades is fine – assuming that they are not simply just using

unmoderated estimates!

KS1 Estimates• In development section• Introduced in summer 2011 following a year of trialling and

feedback – which was very positive!• Examples of relationship between FSP and KS1 attainment

• In development section• Introduced in summer 2011 following a year of trialling and

feedback – which was very positive!• Examples of relationship between FSP and KS1 attainment

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

1 2C 2B 2A 3

KS1 Mathematics Level

EYFSP MAT score between 18 and 22

CLL -> ReadingCLL -> Reading

MAT -> MathsMAT -> Maths

Remember that these are averages!

Chart below shows KS1 Maths Levels for FSP MAT scores

between 18 and 22

Remember that these are averages!

Chart below shows KS1 Maths Levels for FSP MAT scores

between 18 and 22

FSP to KS1 - Factors

Approximate Weightings

Approximate Weightings

Other Reports• Export Section• Provides additional data (e.g. UPN,

FFT_ID) which is not available on SETS reports

• Removes formatting and colours, so easier to import into other systems

• Export Section• Provides additional data (e.g. UPN,

FFT_ID) which is not available on SETS reports

• Removes formatting and colours, so easier to import into other systems

• Student Explorer• Select students by range of characteristics• Look at individual pupil history• Developments:

• FSM as pre-set group (can currently select using drop-down menus)

• Pilot estimate report which takes into account factors such as EAL and when arrived in UK

• Student Explorer• Select students by range of characteristics• Look at individual pupil history• Developments:

• FSM as pre-set group (can currently select using drop-down menus)

• Pilot estimate report which takes into account factors such as EAL and when arrived in UK

Questions