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Migration from Mexico to the US : is return migration the new trend?

Alfredo Cuecuecha Mendoza, Ph.D.El Colegio de Tlaxcala, A.C.

Darryl McLeod, Ph.D.Fordham University

May 12, 2017 US-Mexico Ties in the 21st Century 1

Outline1. Mexico-US migration: importance of net migration2. Measurement of stock and flows3. Explaining net migration

a. Apprehensions and deportationsb. Job creation in Mexico and the USc. Demographic transitiond. Institutional Changes in Mexico and bilateral policye. US migration policy

4. Conclusions: importance of b), c) and d) on decennial migration growth

5. A note on remittances


Mexico US migration

• Dynamic process: highly heterogeneous (Durand, 2016; Massey et.al. 2012)– Circular vs permanent– Documented vs undocumented– Voluntary returns vs deportations– Individual vs family based– Mexico born vs US born– Skilled vs unskilled


Various implications, one that I will concentrate on is the need to speak of Net migration

Mexicans in the US: 1850-2014


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

18501860187018801890190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122014

thou

sand

s of p

eopl

e

Source:1850 to 2012 (Passel et al 2012); 2013 (Brown & Patten , 2012); 2014 (Patten, 2016)

History: annualized decennial growth rates Mexico-US migration*


Source: Passel et al 2012.

7.3%

4.8%

1.4%2.8%

7.8%

2.8%

-5.3%

1.8%2.8%

10.6%

7.4%

4.2% 2.7%

-1.4%

1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2014

For 2005, the year base is 2000; for 2014, the year base is 2010

Mexican Migration trends 2007-2015: American Community Census (ACS) vs Pew Hispanic

Center (PHC)


Sources: Own calculations with data from Pew Hispanic Center, PHC: 2010 to 2012 (Passel et al 2012); 2013 (Brown & Patten , 2012); 2014 (Patten, 2016); American Community Survey, ACS: Foreign Born Population in the US by country of origin, various years. The year base for each calculation is the start of the period of reference.

-0.06%

0.01%0.13%

-0.47%

-1.45%2007-2010 2010-2014 2011-2015

ACS PHC

Why are they different?

• Previously numbers from PHC were > ACS– During growth period, Census and ACS had

undercount. PHC adjusted for it.– During decline period, is ACS over counting?

• In any case, both ACS and PHC signal that migration is declining or has negligible growth post 2007


Why is net Mexico-USmigration now zero or negative?

• Mainstream argument is that return migration is the new driver of net migration because – Weak U.S. recovery after the 2008 financial crisis (high

unemployment leads to voluntary return)– Surge in deportations even under President Obama – Voluntary returns to reunite with family…

–BUT, is return migration the key driver?


Survey results on opinions found among Mexicans returned to Mexico

– Quality of life: in 2007, 23% of Mexicans thought life in the US was similar to one possible in Mexico, by 2015, 33% of Mexicans held that opinion

– Deportation rate: just 14% of Mexicans returning from the US claim to be deported

– Family reunification: 61% of returning Mexicans say they came back to be with their family


Source: González-Barrera (2015)

1026

814

636

479

440

433

547

374

203

2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009

Net Migration flows Mexico-US (thousands of people)

To US To Mexico Net

Mexican surveys show large reductions in the entry of Mexicans to the US

Source: ENOE (2006-2009)

Return migration is stable, while migration flows decline


Why is migrant entry falling?

Source: US Department of Homeland Security. Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2010, 2014May 12, 2017 US-Mexico Ties in the 21st Century 11

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Appr

ehen

sion

s

Dep

orta

tions

Deportations & Apprehensions(1000s)

DeportationsApprehensions at US borders

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005-2000 2010-2005 2015-2010

Cumulative Deportations 5 yr average

Deportations (cummulative)

Deportations(growth)

US and Mexico job creation

Source: INEGI, 2016 Source: BLS, 2016

Post recession US job growth is pulling workers North, but steady job creation in Mexico is now reducing out Migration…


0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015

Job creation in Mexico, formal registered employees at IMSS

(thousands)

Job created Percent growth

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015

Job creation in the US, total private employment (thousands)

Jobs created Percent growth

Demographic change

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

1960 1970 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Population trends, Mexico, 1960-2015, various shares of population

0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60+


Mexico’s demographic transition: share of children 0 to 14 peaked in 1970 now share steadily declining

Source: Mexico’s census data obtained through integrated data bases by IPUMS

Smaller pool of potential migrants w/ dependents

23%

24%

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%

30%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1960 1970 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Popu

latio

n pe

rcen

tage

Depe

nden

cy ra

tio

Dependency ratio and youth 15-19 share

Dependency ratio 15-29


Dependency ratio: (less than 12 and 65+)/(13 to 64 years old) reached also a maximum in 1970. Since then it has declined steadily.15 to 29, the group with the highest risk of migration reached a maximum in 1990. Since then, it has steadily declined.

Demographic forces linked to migration growth


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Migration growth and dependency ratio

Dependency ratio Migration growth

The peak in dependency ratio predicts the peak in migration growth ten years later. After 2005 the acceleration in the decline of migration seems to be associated to other factors.

Migration rate growth and institutional changes in Mexico


-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2014

Reform war period

Porfirio Díazperiod

Revolution and religious war period

PRI period Democracy period

PRE NAFTA YearsPost NAFTA

Migration rate, and changes in general US migration policy


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2014

Laissez faire period Quota system period

PRE NAFTA Years Post NAFTA

Reunification system period

Migration and changes in US-Mexico migration policy


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2014

Laissez faire periodQuota system period

Mass Deportation of Mexicans 1929

PRE NAFTA Post NAFTA Bracero program,

Family Reunification

IRCA

Wall construction starts

Increased deportations start

IIRIRA

Final remarks• Net Mexico to U.S. migration now negative and

policies, demographic trends will reduce it further • Falling net migration is explained mainly a

reduction in the flow of new immigrants North • Deportations peaked in 2012, and are falling

every year (until this) yet the• large decline in net migration seems to be a

medium run trend driven by jobs & demographics


Final remarks (2)

• Mainly positive developments behind this trend:– Economic growth and job creation in Mexico, associated

to NAFTA– Demographic changes that reducing the supply of

young Mexican workers with dependents – Socio political change contributing to a more stable

Mexico (falling inequality, rising middle class, transfers)


Final remarks (3)• US migration policy specific to Mexico seems to

have limited effect on net migration:– Decennial (inter census) migration– Five year period migration

• Best policy for deter migration seems to be NAFTA and socio-economic/political change in Mexico– Years of not-democratic governance it led to explosive

migration– During years of democratic government it is related to

the reduction of growth in migration and its decline


Final remarks (4)

• 2016 is proving to be an atypical year– In 2015, ACS shows a decline in the total stock of

migrants from Mexico– Yet, deportations and apprehensions increased in

2016– NAFTA itself is being renegotiated as we speak– The wall is said to be reinforced together with ICE

operations– Is this the signal of a regime change?


Notes on Remittance flows

• World Remittance flows $429 in 2016 • Remittances from the US to rest of the world reach 61

billion dollars in 2015• Remittances from the US to Mexico reach almost 27

billion dollars in 2016 – The end of 2016 there was an increase in remittances, this

growth is unlikely to be a medium term trend (weak peso?)– Cumulative remittances are a function of total migration– Annual remittance flows related to US employment rates


Remittances: Levels and growth


0.000

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Remittances from US to Mexico (thousand dollars)

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Rate of growth of remittances from US to Mexico

Trends: Stocks and flows


-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015

Rate of growth for cummulative remittances and total number of

migrants

Remittances (cummulative) Migration

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015

Rate of growth for annual flow of remittances and US employment

Remmittances (flow) Employment_US

Effects of remittances in Mexico and other parts of the world


• Reduce poverty (Adams & Page, 2005; Acosta et. al., 2008; Esquivel & Huerta-Pineda, 2007)

• Increase education of children (Cox-Edwards & Ureta, 2003; Yang & Choi, 2007; Adams & Cuecuecha, 2010, 2013, 2016)

• Increase investment in houses (Osili, 2004; Adams & Cuecuecha, 2010, 2013,2016)

• Increase investment in microbusiness (Lucas, 1987, Woodruff & Zenteno, 2007)

• Increase jobs (Orreniuos et. al., 2012)

Their medium to long term impact

• Hypothesis: To the extent that they reduce poverty, fertility and generate better economic conditions they could reduce future migration

• BUT, limits in financial inclusion, weakness in rule of law, and other factors can deter their positive effects

• Research still ongoing to determine the validity of this hypothesis

• These medium term impacts could be very different if economic conditions worsen in Mexico due to a NAFTA elimination


• Prediction of trends are at this moment uncertain– Potential of implementation of taxes or measures

to control remittance flows– Uncertainty about risks of new ICE measures and

its impact on remittance behavior

• Thanks!


Migration from Mexico to the US : is return migration the new trend?OutlineMexico US migrationMexicans in the US: 1850-2014History: annualized decennial growth rates Mexico-US migration*Mexican Migration trends 2007-2015: American Community Census (ACS) vs Pew Hispanic Center (PHC) Why are they different?Why is net Mexico-USmigration now zero or negative? Survey results on opinions found among Mexicans returned to MexicoMexican surveys show large reductions in the entry of Mexicans to the USWhy is migrant entry falling? US and Mexico job creationDemographic changeSmaller pool of potential migrants w/ dependents Demographic forces linked to migration growthMigration rate growth and institutional changes in MexicoMigration rate, and changes in general US migration policyMigration and changes in US-Mexico migration policyFinal remarksFinal remarks (2)Final remarks (3)Final remarks (4)Notes on Remittance flowsRemittances: Levels and growthTrends: Stocks and flowsEffects of remittances in Mexico and other parts of the worldTheir medium to long term impactSlide Number 28

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