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Ciruli Associates 1115 Grant St., Ste G-6 Denver, CO 80203 PH (303) 399-3173 FAX (303) 399-3147 www.ciruli.com
2014 Midterm Election Results
Forecasting and Results
Professor Floyd Ciruli
Crossley Center for Public Opinion ResearchKorbel School of International Studies
November 2014
Ciruli Associates 20141
2014: Wave or No WaveNationalization or All Elections are Local or Both
President Obama’s Approval Ratings2012-2014
Metrics
• Obama spread – (11%)• Congressional approval – 13%• Generic ballot test – Reps 2%• Direction, right – 27%• House 234, need 17• Senate 55, need 6
Source: Real Clear Politics 2013/14Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014
49%
50% 50%
54%52%
49%
40%44% 42%
48%
48% 47%
42% 43%47%
56%
51% 53%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Approval Disapproval
Senate Majority LeaderHarry Reid
House Minority LeaderNancy Pelosi
SpeakerJohn Boehner
SenatorMitch McConnell
Ciruli Associates 20142
Mark BegichAlaska
Democrat
67%Chance oflosing seat
R +2
Mary L. LandrieuLouisiana
Democrat
77%Chance oflosing seat
R +5
Democrats in Difficult Races
Seats with late poll showing Democrats in danger oflosing. Current prediction: Republicans win sixseats – 75% (538).
Amanda CurtisMontana
Democrat
99%Chance oflosing seat
R +18
Kay HaganNorth Carolina
Democrat
32%Chance oflosing seat
D +1
Mark UdallColorado
Democrat
75%Chance oflosing seat
R +2
Sources: 538, Nov. 3, 2014; Real Clear Politics, Nov. 3, 2014
Mark PryorArkansas
Democrat
90%Chance oflosing seat
R +7
Ciruli Associates 20143
Thirteen Key StatesControl of U.S. Senate 2014
November 3, 2014
LouisianaR-5
West VirginiaR-16
IowaR-2
New HampshireD-1
ColoradoR-2
North CarolinaD-1
South DakotaR-11
AlaskaR-2
KansasI-1
MontanaR-16
ArkansasR-7
GeorgiaR-3
KentuckyR-7
Win the Senate538 – 75% RHuffington Post – 77% RNew York Times – 70% R
Ciruli Associates 20144
Colorado Senate Race Top of ListGardner by Two Points; Post Endorses
Gardner vs. Udall – Real Clear Politics
Source: Real Clear Politics 2014Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014
Sen. Mark Udall
Sen. Cory Gardner
“Abut 85 percentof Colorado voters
immediatelydecided who theysupported. Sincethen, the lead has
shifted andremains close.
Gardner’s currentlead is just at themargin of error in
the pollingaverage.”
Denver Post Perspective,10-26-14
Poll Date Gardner Udall
Average 11-2 46% 44%
PPP 11-2 48 45
Quinnipiac 11-2 45 43YouGov 10-31 43 42
Denver Post 10-29 46 44
Quinnipiac 10-27 46 39Rasmussen 10-23 51 45
CBS/NYT/YouGov 10-23 46 47
NBC/Marist 10-22 46 45USA Today/Suffolk 10-21 46 39
Quinnipiac 10-21 46 41Denver Post 10-12 45 43CBS/NYT/YouGov 10-1 45 48Quinnipiac 9-15 48 40
Denver Post 9-10 42 42
Ciruli Associates 20145
Forecasts on Udall vs. GardnerNovember 3, 2014
Forecast %
New York Times 80 R
FiveThirtyEight 81 R
Huffington Post 66 R
Washington Post 97 R
Cook Toss-up
Rothenberg Toss-up
Sabato Lean R
“The forecasters, such asFiveThirtyEight, New
York Times, WashingtonPost and Huffington Post,
are predicting CoryGardner the Senate
winner with higher andhigher percentages.”
The Buzz, 10-30-14
Udall Will Lose
Ciruli Associates 20146
War on Women – Overkill?One Dimensional, Loses Favorability, Alienates Men
Colorado Senate RaceGender Differences
Udall Gardner Difference Favor
QuinnipiacMen 34% 53% 19 GardnerWomen 49 40 9 Udall
Source: Quinnipiac, 10-13-14Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014
PPPMen 39% 46% 7 GardnerWomen 46 42 4 Udall
Source: PPP, 10-19-14Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014
USA Today/SuffolkMen 38% 46% 8 GardnerWomen 39 46 7 Gardner
Source: USA Today/Suffolk, 10-21-14Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014
“Republicans win asgender gap shrinks.”
Wall Street Journal, 10-24-14
Ciruli Associates 20147
Game Changer – DENVER POST Endorsement
The overall theme is that the best anecdote to gridlock is change.
Washington is gridlocked. It needs “fresh leadership, energy andideas.”
Gardner has been a reservoir of ideas and leadership from thestart of his career.
Udall is a fine man, but “not perceived as a leader” and “not at thecenter of the issues that count.”
Udall’s multi-million dollar “war on women” ad campaign is nowdamaging him more than Gardner. As the Post says, the“obnoxious one-issue campaign is insult to those he seeks toconvince.”
Flipping the Senate to Republican control will, in their view, bemore productive for the next two years. President Obama’s desirefor a legacy and Republican self-interest in repairing theirreputation for gridlock could converge and would be enhanced inthe Post’s view by Gardner’s election (See The Buzz, October 13).
Ciruli Associates 20148
Changing the Turnout?
Voter Returns
ActiveRegistered Date
VoterReturns % Dems % Rep % Unaffiliated %
2,916,145 10-17 27,640 0.9% 8,714 32% 12,766 46% 5,864 21%
2,916,145 10-22 332,050 11% 105,401 32% 145,824 44% 77,285 23%
2,916,145 10-24 518,610 17% 164,443 32% 226,923 44% 121,812 23%
2,916,145 10-29 905,500 31% 294,648 33% 379,250 42% 222,043 24%
2,916,145 11-4 1,607,220 55% 519,225 32% 636,223 40% 433,648 27%
Democrats31%
Republicans32%
Unaffiliated35%
3rd Parties2%
Democrat32%
Republican40%
Unaffiliated27%
3rd Parties1%
Voter Registration – Oct. 2014 Voters In – Oct. 29, 2014
Ciruli Associates 20149
Governor Race - Tie;Denver Post and Pueblo Chieftain Endorse Hick
Gubernatorial Polls
Sources: Quinnipiac, Denver Post, CBS, NBC, YouGov 2014Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014
LeftDemocrat
MiddleBipartisan
RightRepublican
14 States 12 States 23 States
Bob Beauprez
Party Control of States – 37 One-Party
Approval 46% to 45% (Sept. 2014); Approval 62% to 19% (Sept.2012); J. Brown Approval 58% (Sept.)
Ciruli Associates 2014
*Nebraska is non-partisan (conservative control)**24 states had one-party control in 1980, 20 states in 1990,
21 states in 2000
Denver Post9-10-14
Denver Post10-12-14
CBS News10-22-14
NBC News10-22-14
Denver Post10-29-14
YouGov10-31-14
Quinnipiac11-2-14
Hickenlooper 45% 45% 48% 46% 46% 44% 43%
Beauprez 43 44 44 41 46 42 45
Don’tknow/other
12 11 8 13 8 14 12
Gov. JohnHickenlooper
Ciruli Associates 201410
Sixth CongressionalDifficult Year for Democratic Challenger
Republican,33.6%
Democrat,31.8%
Unaffiliated,33.6%
Obama Wins it by Five Points in 2012Voter Affiliation in the 6th Congressional District
Andrew Romanoff
Rep. Mike Coffman
Sources: Denver Post 2014Denver District court recordsSecretary of State
Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014
Floyd Ciruli
“Nancy Pelosi is notgoing to add 17 seats
(for Democrats toretake the House)
without getting thisone. It’ll be one ofthe most heavily
fought races in thecountry. It’ll be
highly negative. Ihave no doubt about
that.” (Denver Post,Jan. 19, 2014)
2012 votes:
Adams 39,166; Arapahoe 248,461; Douglas 55,287
2012 votes:
Adams 39,166; Arapahoe 248,461; Douglas 55,287
Ciruli Associates 201411
Down Ballot – Republican Advantage
USA Today9-16-14
PPP10-19-14
USA Today10-21-14
Denver Post10-29-14
Attorney GeneralDon Quick, D 30% 32% 31% 38%Cynthia Coffman, R 40 46 42 45Other 5 7 8 6Don’t know 24 15 12 11
State TreasurerBetsy Markey, D -- 40% -- 41%Walker Stapleton, R -- 42 -- 46Other -- 6 -- 5Don’t know -- 12 -- 8
Secretary of StateJoe Neguse, D 29% 31% 28% 39%Wayne Williams, R 35 35 35 43Other 8 13 6 7Don’t know 28 20 31 11
Colorado State Constitutional Offices
Sources: USA Today/Suffolk, PPP 2014Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014
Cynthia Coffman
Don Quick
Ciruli Associates 201412
Colorado State LegislatureThe Change
Partisan Comparison
Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Governor
2008 37 27 21 14 Ritter
2010 33 34 20 15 Hickenlooper
2012 37 28 20 15 Hickenlooper
2013 37 28 18 17 Hickenlooper
State House State Senate
Senate House
SD 5 Western Slope HD 3 Arapahoe
SD 11 Colorado Springs HD 11 Colorado Springs
SD 16 Jefferson HD 33 Broomfield
SD 19 Arapahoe HD 50 Greeley
SD 20 Jefferson HD 59 Southwest
SD 22 Jefferson
SD 24 Adams
Ciruli Associates 201413
Colorado Ballot Issues145 Filed, 4 Make Ballot, 1 Ahead
Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014
USA Today9-16-14
USA Today10-21-14
Denver Post10-29-14
Amendment 67 - PersonhoodYes 35% 31% 32%No 45 55 54Don’t know 17 13 14
Amendment 68 – Gaming at RacetracksYes 33% 21% 32%No 44 67 63Don’t know 19 10 5
Proposition 104 – School Board Open MeetingsYes 54% 64% 61%No 24 22 24Don’t know 19 14 15
Proposition 105 – Label Genetically Modified FoodYes 52% 30% 34%No 27 49 59Don’t know 19 21 8
Ciruli Associates 201414
$100 Million-Dollar Senate RaceMostly TV, Mostly Negative
ContributionsSeptember 30
Source: Denver Post 2014Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014
Gardner Udall Total
Candidate $ 9.3 million $17.7 million $27.0 million
“Independent” committees 26.8 million 29.2 million 56.0 million
Total $36.1 million $46.9 million $83.0 million
Brandon Rittiman of 9Newstosses coin in debate with MarkUdall (L) and Cory Gardner (R)
Photo: Brennan Linsley, AP
Ciruli Associates 201415
Colorado Politics in TransitionElection Isn’t About Colorado Any More
Nationalization of 2014 Colorado election̶ Change of Senate̶ Forecasting̶ No local issues
Flood of money̶ $100 million Senate̶ Mostly independent expenditures
TV is king̶ TV debates, advertisements, truth tests̶ GOTV is challenger/online third
Denver Post endorsement still powerful̶ Gridlock, change, poor campaign
No access, less free media̶ No mistake campaigns