Middle East – North Africa and Central Asia CORDEX domains:

an overview (May 2014)

Grigory NikulinSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

Establishing of the MENA CORDEX Domain

• Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR) http://www.escwa.un.org/RICCAR/

• a few international agencies (UN-ESCWA, UNEP, WMO, UNISDR and FAO) and regional partners (ACSAD and League of Arab States), funded by SIDA (Sweden)

• The RICCAR initiative was founded to assess climate change impacts on water resources over the Arab Region (started 2011)

• A first step within RICCAR was to establish a common modelling domain for regional downscaling

• This began independently from CORDEX but advantages to following CORDEX standards quickly became apparent

• About 10 different configurations of the MENA CORDEX domain were tested at SMHI with input from the regional partners partners (ACSAD, KAU, KAUST)

• The MENA-CORDEX domain is based on user needs

MENA CORDEX Domain

• Martin Juckes and Stephen Pascoe (BADC, UK)

• North: including the Euphrates and Tigris catchment area• South: including the White Nile catchment • East: including the Arabian Sea (tropical storms from the Arabian Sea)

MENA CORDEX Modeling groups

• Arab Center for the Study of Arid Zones and Dry Lands/League of Arab States (ACSAD) Damascus, Syria [RegCM]

• Bogazici University (BOUN) Istanbul, Turkey [RegCM and RCA4]• Centro EuroMediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Capua,

Italy [CCLM4-21_clm2]• Climate Service Center Germany (CSC), Max Planck Institute for

Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany [REMO2009]• The Cyprus Institute, Energy Environment & Water Research Center

(CYI-EEWRC), Nicosia, Cyprus [WRF351]• Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR), King

Abdulaziz University (KAU), Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia [RegCM]

• King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia [hi-res global GCM: GFDL-HiRAM]

• Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrkoping, Sweden [RCA4]

EC-EARTH

CanESM2

CNRM-CM5

HadGEM2-ES

CMCC-CM

MPI-ESM-LR

GFDL-ESM2M

IPSL-CM5A-

MR

ACSAD-RegCM 25km

BOUN-RegCM 50km

BOUN-RCA4 50km

CMCC-CCLM50km

CSC-REMO50km

CYI-WRF 50km

KAU-RegCM 50km 50km 50km 50km 50km

KAUST-HiRAM 25km

SMHI-RCA4 +25km rcp85

+25km rcp85

50km

CORDEX-MENA Matrix (RCMs-GCMs)

8 CMIP5 GCMs, mixed RCP45 and 85, 25 and 50km

MENA-CORDEX downloads (MNA-44)

Most popular variables: minimum temperature, precipitation, mean, maximum temperature and wind

• User needs: minimum temperature is important for agriculture

MENA-CORDEX downloads (MNA-22)

Most popular variables: minimum temperature, precipitation, mean, maximum temperature and wind

MENA-CA ISSI proposal

• International Space Science Institute (ISSI, Bern) call for proposals 2014 for International Teams in Space and Earth Sciences

• the MENA-CA proposal was prepared for the ISSI call in 2013 but by a number of reasons has not been submitted

• not so much resources provided in the call: support for two meetings in Bern and some funding for a PhD student

• this year it was not so easy to find who can take the lead • with support from WCRP (Michel Rixen) Panos Hadjinicolaou (the

Cyprus Institute) took the lead in the proposal (submitted)• 12 partners: JPL/NASA, ESA, DWD and all 8 MENA-CA RCM groups• establishing a MENA-CA network for regional modeling• to consolidate a number of space-based climate data records into

the NASA Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES); • to develop a coordinated effort for a systematic assessment of

historical MENA-CA CORDEX simulations• decision at the end of May 2014

Levent Kurnaz (Boğaziçi Üniversitesi - Fizik Bölümü, İstanbul)

• RegCM4.1: ERAINT (1989-2010) - done ECHAM5 A1B (1970-2000, 2070-2100) -done

• RegCM4.3.5: HadGEM2 (hist. 1951-2005, rcp45 and 85 2006-2100) – done MPI-ESM-MR – planned IPSL-CM5A-LR – planned

• RCA4 (planed)

CORDEX-Central Asia