mics syllabus fall 2017 06.13.17 v3 · =averageif, =vlookup) will be helpful but are not necessary....

THEINTERSECTIONOFOPERATIONSANDPOLICY:AMULTIMEDIALEARNINGEXPERIENCEIN

THENEWYORKCITYFAMILYHOMELESSSHELTERSYSTEMFALL2017

CLASSSCHEDULEBobstLibrary–RoomLL1389:00a.m.to12:30pm,sevenSaturdaysfromSeptember16toDecember16

INSTRUCTORSFaculty Email OfficeHours Location

GordonCampbell [email protected] EmailforAppointment

Puck3063WarnerFite [email protected] Puck3rdfloorTeachingAssistant

ShifraGoldenberg [email protected] EmailforAppointment

AdministrativeAssistant

CatherineFalzone [email protected] Puck3RDFloor

COURSEDESCRIPTIONPolicy and operations are inextricably linked. This course aims to expose students to policy formation in a highlypolitical environment, operationsmanagement of systems shaped by state and local policy, and their intersection,whilebuildinga toolboxofspecificskills thatsupportanalysisanddecisionmaking inawidevarietyofcontexts. AunifyingMultimedia Interactive Case Study (MICS) focused on theNYC family homeless shelter systemwill be thebackdropofthiscourse.Thiscourseisanintensiveengagementthatincorporatesperspectivesfromacademictheory,City,StateandFederalgovernment,serviceproviders,advocacyorganizations,andpublicinterestlaw.

LEARNINGOBJECTIVESThecourselearningobjectivesfallintoeightbroadskill-buildingareas:decisionmodeling,stakeholderanalysis,time-series data decomposition and forecasting, budgeting and financial analysis, negotiation, and policy making in apoliticalcontext.Thiscoursealsobuildsskillsincommunication,presentationsandteamwork.

Presenta[onSkills

TimeSeriesDataand

Forecas[ng

Budge[ngandFinancialAnalysis

StakeholderAnalysis

PolicyMakinginaPoli[calContext

CapacityManagement

StructuredDecision-Making

Nego[a[on

TheIntersectionofPolicyandOperationsSyllabus–Fall2017

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MULTIMEDIAINTERACTIVECASESTUDYPLATFORM

https://wp.nyu.edu/mics/

TheMultimedia Interactive Case Study (MICS) is an online platform where students engage with both case studyresources and interactive tools. While the case study resources are specific to the NYC Homeless Family ShelterSystem,theskillsgainedarehighlytransferabletoalargevarietyofdisciplines,includingpublicservicemanagementandpolicy,business,socialwork,health,andurbanplanning.

TheMICSsitecanbeaccessedintwoways:

1. FromthecoursesiteonNYUClasses,youcanclickonthetabattheleftandfollowtheinstructionsandlink.2. DirectlytotheMICSsite,whichispartofNYU’sWordpresssite,atwp.nyu.edu/mics.

Ineithercase,youwillbetakentothescreenbelowwhereyoumustenteryourNetID(e.g,,AAA123)andpassword.Inordertoenterthesite,youmustclickonthe“LogInWithShibboleth”linkratherthanthelarger(andmoreintuitive)“LogIn”button.

CASESTUDYRESOURCES

o Video Documentaries (10-15minutes each) havebeen created for this course, each featuring stakeholderinterviews, including New York City and New York State officials, advocates, providers, public interestlawyers,families,andacademicians.Thesesixdocumentariesare:

• FamilyHomelessnessLandscapeintroducesthevariousstakeholdersworkinginhomelessnessinNYC.

• FamilyHomelessnessinNewYorkCityreviewstheproblemoffamilyhomelessness.• Advantage:Incarnation&EvolutiondescribesAdvantage,itsformationandimplementation.• Advantage:FamilyExperiencepresentstheexperiencesoffamilies.• Advantage:TerminationexplainstheendofAdvantageandthesubsequentimpact.• Where do we go from here? provides various perspectives on how tomove forward in family

homelessness.


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o BudgetingandFinancialAnalysis featuresawebinarandpresentationdetailingthefiscalparticularsofthefamily homeless shelter system during the Advantage years, the funding mechanisms at play, and thefinancialimplicationsforthepoliticalstakeholders.ThissectionalsoincludestheOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)datasetdescribedbelow.

o DataVisualizationsgivestudentsavisualintroductiontotheCity’sfamilyhomelesssheltersystem.o NewsSources includesarticlesandvideoclipspertinenttoNewYorkCity’shomelesssheltersystemandthe

AdvantageProgramovertherelevanttimeperiod,whichwillbuildstudents’understandingofthedifferentstakeholderperspectives,tensionaroundtheissues,andpublicinformation.

o Research includes journal articles and reports, relevant to homelessness trends and policies, which willprovidestudentsabroadunderstandingofresearchandtheoreticalperspectives.

o Documentsincludeavarietyoforiginalsourcedocuments.o Datasets (found in theResources sectionofNYUClasses)will be available to the students for use in their

analysesandexplorationoffamilyhomelessness.CertaininformationinthedatasetshasbeenprovidedbyCityagencies(DHSandOMB)tousonaconfidentialbasisandsomeofthe information isnot inthepublicdomain.Thedatasetsarenotforuseoutsideofthiscourseandcanbefoundintheresourcessection

• NewYorkCityDepartmentofHomelessServicesFamilyShelterCensusData,specifically,monthlyhomelesssheltersystemdata(entrances,exitsandcensus)fromJuly1,2008throughDecember31,2013,whichspanstimeundertheAdvantagepolicy,thephasingoutofAdvantage,andmorethanonefullyearpost-Advantage.

• New York City Office of Management and Budget Financial Data, specifically annual familyhomelessnessspendingdata for fiscalyears2009 through2014.Thisdata includesamountsspentforeachofthesixfiscalyearsbytypeofmajorprogramtogetherwithabreakoutofthecity,stateandfederalfundingsourcesforeach.

• DHS Critical Activities Reports (CARs) which preceded the present DHS Dashboard reports andwhichareno longerreadilyaccessibleonlinefromtheCity. CARSreports,whichwerepublisheduntil June 30, 2011, contain demographic information on the family shelter population aswell asshelterexits,entrances,andmonthlypopulation.

INTERACTIVETOOLS(ACCESSEDTHROUGHTHEMICSSITE)o DecisionTreeBuilderisusedtoconstructandanalyzeadecisiontree.o Stakeholder Analysis Tool (Policy Maker 5) is used to create a stakeholder analysis table identifying key

stakeholders, their policy priorities, influence, resources, and alliances as well as where stakeholders arepositioned in terms of their relative importance. It is designed to help you develop strategies to garnersupport for your preferred policy option. PolicyMaker 5 works best with the Chrome browser and westrongly recommend thatstudentsdonotattempt touseotherbrowsers. Unfortunately, ifyouuseotherbrowsersyouwillnotbeabletosaveyourworkortransferitfromcomputertocomputer.

o Time-Series Data Analysis and Forecasting in Excel encompasses methods to use the data analysis andvisualizationtoolsinMSExcelthatenableexperimentationwithdifferenttime-seriesforecastingapproachesandassociatedparameters.


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COURSEREQUIREMENTSANDGRADINGCOMPONENTSFinalgradesaredeterminedbythefollowingcoursecomponents.Asthecourseprogresses,thedetailedassignmentswill be posted to the “Assignments” tab of the course site in NYU Classes and completed assignments should beuploadedthere.Filenamesshouldalwaysincludethestudent’sname(ortheteamnumber)aswellastheassignmentname.

o IndividualClassParticipation(15%).Participationincludespresence,promptness,preparation,andengagement.Ifyouhavethoroughlyprepared,youshouldhavenoproblemfollowingandcontributingtothediscussions.Keepinmindthatmuchofaleader’scommunicationisverbal,especiallyinpolicyandoperationssettings.Developingyourabilitiestoverballystateandsupportyourpositionsisanimportantpartofthisclass,inadditiontolisteningand reflectingon thediscourse. Studentsareexpected toattendall classes. Theuseofelectronicdevices forpurposesotherthantakingnotesisnotappropriateandcanlimityourlearninganddistractyourcolleagues.

o IndividualAssignments (20%). Therewillbe three individualassignments (each5%),associatedwithaspecificlearningmodule(i.e.,timeseriesdataforecasting,stakeholderanalysis,anddecisionmodeling).Theseindividualassignmentsareimportantastheylayafoundationforthemoresophisticatedanalysisrevolvingaroundthemaincase of the course. In addition, there will be an individual site visit reflection (5%, up to two pages, double-spaced)onthesitevisittoDHS’sPATHIntakeCenterandafamilyshelter.StudentswhoareunabletoattendthesitevisitwillwriteareflectionontwoarticlesassignedfromtheMICSsite.

o Team Presentation (10%). Each team will deliver one in-class presentation including analysis and supportedrecommendations for either the Time-Series Data or Stakeholder Analysismodule (as assigned by instructors,each teamwillprepareapresentation foreitherTime-SeriesDataorStakeholderAnalysisandamemo for theother). Followingeachpresentation,therewillbeacritiqueanddiscussionwithprofessorsandcolleagues. Allteammembersarerequiredtopresent.

o Team Memo (10%). Each team will prepare and submit one technical memo addressed to the AssistantCommissioner of Policy, Planning and Evaluation at the NYC Department of Homeless Services (three to fivepages,double-spaced,plusexhibits).Thismemowillpresentanalysisandsupportedrecommendationsforeitherthe Time-Series Data or Stakeholder Analysis module (as assigned by instructors, each team will prepare apresentation for either Time-Series Data or Stakeholder Analysis and a memo for the other). All supportinganalysesshouldbeattachedintheappendicestothememo.

o IndividualNegotiationStrategyDocument(10%).TeamswillrepresentdifferentstakeholdersintheNYCFamilyHomelessShelterSystem(e.g.,providers,advocates,theCity).Traditionally,thedifferentstakeholdershavenotworkedwelltogether.NeverthelesstheMayorhascalledaforumandchargedthestakeholderswithdevelopingrecommendations around familyhomelessness inNYC. Inpreparation for the forum, studentswill individuallyprepare a negotiation strategy document (no more than four pages, double-spaced), with desired outcomes,expectedoutcomes,negotiationstrategies,andtalkingpointsfortheparticularstakeholder.

o TeamBudgetingandFinancialAnalysisAssignment(10%).EachteamwillprepareandpresentapresentationfortheincomingDHSCommissionerhighlightingoneormorefiscaltradeoffsarisingfromthebudgetaryenvironmentandconstraintsunderwhichDHSoperates(fourtofivepages,doublespaced,plusexhibits).

o TeamFinalPresentationandTeamMayoralPolicyMemo(totalof25%).

§ Each teamwill prepare and present a presentation for theMayor and the DeputyMayor for Health andHuman Services outlining the current state of the NYC homeless family shelter system, alternativesconsideredandtheteam’srecommendation(s)goingforwardalongwithsupportingarguments.

§ Accompanying the Team Final Presentation to the Mayor and the Deputy Mayor for Health and HumanServices, teams will submit a memo outlining their recommendations and supporting analysis (10-page,double-spaced,plusappendices).


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PREREQUISITESCoursework. Therequiredprerequisitecourses(waivedforEMPAstudents)are(1)CORE-GP.1020ManagingPublicServiceOrganizations(MPSO)and(2)CORE-GP.1022IntroductiontoPublicPolicy.EMPAstudentswillhavecompletedatleastthesummerportionofEXEC-GP.1194StrategicLeadership.

Excel Knowledge.While the quantitative work is generally straightforward, it does presumemore than a passingfamiliarity with Excel. The Time Series Data, Decision Analysis (Decision Trees), Financial Analysis and Final TeamMemoassignmentswillrequireuseofExcel. Expectedknowledgeincludes(but isnot limitedto)enteringdata;thegeneralarithmeticfunctions;usingsimpleformulas(e.g.,=AVERAGE,=SUM,=IF,=SUMPRODUCT);formatting;printingwith appropriate formatting; and creating professional-standard charts. Some advanced formulas (e.g., =COUNTIF,=AVERAGEIF,=VLOOKUP)willbehelpfulbutarenotnecessary.

StudentswhoareunsureoftheirExcelknowledgeorwhowouldjustlikearefresherwillfindithelpfultocompleteanumberoftutorialsonLynda.com.Lynda.comcanbeaccessedthroughyourNYUloginsasfollows:

(1) gotoLynda.comandclicking“LogIn”intheupperright-handcorner,(2) choosetheleft-sideoptionof“Loginthroughyourorganizationorschool,”(3) Loginthroughwww.nyu.edu.ThiswillbringupthegeneralNYUlogin(unlessyouarealreadyloggedin)

andloggingintotheNYUsystemshouldtakeyouautomaticallytothespecifiedcourseonLynda.com.

Thesetutorialsarethemosthelpful:

• REQUIREDUpandRunningwithExcel2010• REQUIRED(dependingonyourExcelversion)

o ExcelforMac2016EssentialTrainingo Excel2016EssentialTrainingo Excel2013EssentialTrainingo Excel2010EssentialTrainingo ExcelforMac2011EssentialTraining

• REQUIRED(dependingonyourExcelversion)o ExcelforMac2016:ChartsinDeptho Excel2016:ChartsinDeptho Excel2013:ChartsinDepth

• REQUIRED(dependingonyourExcelversion)o Excel2016:AdvancedFormulasandFunctionso Excel2013:AdvancedFormulasandFunctionso Excel2010:AdvancedFormulasandFunctions

• HIGHLYRECOMMENDEDExcel2013TipsandTricks• LEARNMOREAndmanymore

ThecourseTeachingAssistant,ShifraGoldenberg,willbeavailableduring thesemester forExcel supportaswellassupportonassignments.


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COURSEREADINGSANDMATERIALSThereadingsfortheclasswillcomefromthefollowingsources:

1. MICSPlatformTheMICSPlatformwillcontaincasestudyresourcesandinteractivetools.

2. NYUClasses.The course site on NYU Classes will be used to post readings and assignments throughout the semester.Studentsareencouragedtocheckitfrequently.

3. Book*Fisher, Roger,William L. Ury, and Bruce Patton.Getting to yes: Negotiating agreement without giving in.Penguin,2011.

4. Coursepack*Available indigital format fromHarvardBusinessPublishing. TheCoursepack for this coursecanbe foundandpurchasedathttp://cb.hbsp.harvard.edu/cbmp/access/64606363.

5. E-Book**Hyndman,RobJ.,andGeorgeAthanasopoulos.Forecasting:principlesandpractice.2014.

6. E-Book**Lawrence,KennethD.,RonaldK.Klimberg,andSheilaM.Lawrence.FundamentalsofforecastingusingExcel.IndustrialPressInc.,2009.

7. E-Book**Hollins,Bill,andSadieShinkins.Managingserviceoperations:Designandimplementation.Sage,2006.

*Studentsareresponsibleforpurchasingtheseitems;theFisherandUrybookiswidelyavailableandisastapleinthefieldofnegotiationandconflictmanagement.

**E-BookscanbeaccessedforfreethroughtheNYULibrary(http://library.nyu.edu/)usingyourNYULogin.SearchforthebookandfollowtheOnlineAccesslinks.AlllinkstoE-BooksarealsoavailableonNYUClasses.

ACADEMICINTEGRITYAsyouknow,eachofyouhavesignedandisthereforeboundbyAcademicOathatNYUWagnerandtheprinciplesofNYU’sandWagner’sacademiccode. All individualsubmissionsareexpectedtobeoriginalwork.Pleasereviewthedetailshere:http://wagner.nyu.edu/portal/students/policies/code.


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COURSECALENDARClass Date ClassTopics AssignmentsDue

9/8 Pre-coursesurvey https://nyu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_0UNWGJMx0bbJDaB

1 9/16

A. Introduction/SyllabusReviewB. NYCFamilyHomelessnessDiscussionC. Time-SeriesDataIntroductionD. AdvantageDiscussionE. PresentationSkills

UnderstandingTime-SeriesDataWebinar 9/18 TeamsAssigned

9/28 (assignedteams)TimeSeriesDataPresentationSlides

9/29 (assignedteams)Time-SeriesDataTeamMemo

2 9/30

A. AdvantageDiscussionB. Time-SeriesDataTeamPresentationsC. ForecastingI

(assignedteams)Time-SeriesDataTeamPresentation

10/6 PATHandShelterSiteVisitOptionalbutveryhighlyrecommended-approximately9:00am-2:00pm

10/9 SiteVisitIndividualReflectionAssignment

10/13 Time-SeriesForecastingIndividualAssignment

3 10/14

A. SiteVisitDebriefB. ForecastingIIC. IntroductiontoBudgetandFinancialDataD. StakeholderAnalysisLecture

10/21 StakeholderAnalysisIndividualAssignment

10/26 (assignedteams)StakeholderAnalysisPresentationSlides

10/27 (assignedteams)StakeholderAnalysisTeamMemo

4 10/28

A. ForecastingIIIB. StakeholderAnalysisTeamPresentationsC. PolicyMakinginaPoliticalContextDiscussionD. CapacityManagement (assignedteams)StakeholderAnalysisTeamPresentation Midtermcoursereview

11/4 BudgetingandFinancialTradeoffsTeamMemo

5 11/11A. StructuredDecisionMaking&ModelingB. NegotiationsDiscussion Midtermteamreview

11/27 IndividualNegotiationStrategyDocument

12/1 DecisionModelingIndividualAssignment

6 12/2A. DecisionModelingDiscussionB. MayoralForum:NegotiationaroundNYCFamilyHomelessPolicyC. MayoralForumDebrief

12/12 TeamFinalPresentationSlides

7 12/16

A. FinalTeamPresentationsB. Wrap-upC. GuestSpeaker

FinalTeamPresentations

12/22 TeamMayoralPolicyMemo FinalTeamReviews


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DETAILEDCOURSESCHEDULE

CLASSSESSION1 SEPTEMBER16Pre-coursesurvey DueSeptember8–thisshouldtakelessthan10minutes At https://nyu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_0UNWGJMx0bbJDaB-youcanuseyourcomputerorsmartphoneA. INTRODUCTION/SYLLABUSREVIEWStudentsandprofessorswillshareexpectationsandgoalsfortheclass;wewilldistributeandreviewthesyllabus.

B. NEWYORKCITYFAMILYHOMELESSNESSDISCUSSIONLectureanddiscussionaboutFamilyHomelessness,particularly inNewYorkCity,whichwill centeron the first twovideodocumentariesoftheseries.

PREPARATION• MICSPlatform:HomelessnessStakeholders-FamilyHomelessnessLandscapevideo• MICSPlatform:FamilyHomelessness-FamilyHomelessnessinNewYorkCityvideo• MICSPlatform:HomelessnessStakeholders- InstituteofChildren,Poverty,andHomelessness.APortraitof

FamilyHomelessness.• MICSPlatform:Homelessness Stakeholders -TheStateofHomelessness inAmerica2013.Washington,DC:

NationalAlliancetoEndHomelessness,April,2013.ExecutiveSummaryRequired;FullReportOptional.• [Optional]ThestructureandworkingsofNewYorkCity’sgovernmentanditsvariousagenciesisarecurring

themethroughout thesemester. For studentswhowish to supplement theirbackgrounds in these topics,BruceBerg’sNewYorkCityPolitics:GoverningGotham(NewJersey:RutgersUniversityPress,2007)providesabriefprimer. SelectedchaptersareavailableinNYUClassesintheSession1folder;Chapters3and7areespeciallyrecommendedasrelevanttothecourse.

Chapter3,TheStateandtheCityChapter4,TheFederalGovernmentandtheCity,especiallypages107to109Chapter7,TheCharter,theMayorandtheOtherGuysChapter8,TheCityCouncilChapter9,TheMunicipalBureaucracy

C. UNDERSTANDINGTIME-SERIESDATAINTRODUCTIONUnderstanding data over time – trends, cycles, seasonality – is critical from forecasting, strategic and operationalperspectives.Wewillintroducetime-seriesdatainclassandasubsequentwebinarexpandsonthetopic.

PREPARATION• BesuretohavecompletedyourExcelPrerequisitesbeforethisclass!• NYUClasses:E-Book–Lawrence,KennethD.,RonaldK.Klimberg,andSheilaM.Lawrence.Fundamentalsof

forecastingusingExcel.IndustrialPressInc.,2009.o Chapter1:IntroductiontoForecastingo Sections2.1-2.4:SummarizingandDisplayingDatainExcel,pages9-21o Chapter3:BasicTimeSeriesAnalysis,Pages33-56

• NYUClasses:Hyndman,RobJ.,andGeorgeAthanasopoulos.Forecasting:principlesandpractice.2014.o Section2/1:Theforecaster’stoolboxo Sections6/1-6/3:Time-SeriesDecomposition

AFTERCLASS: NYUCLASSES:UNDERSTANDINGTIME-SERIESDATAWEBINAR(INSESSION1FOLDER)

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D. ADVANTAGEDISCUSSIONTherewillbeadiscussionabouttheincarnationandevolutionoftheAdvantageprogramcenteredonthethirdvideodocumentaryintheMICSseries.

PREPARATION• MICSPlatform:AdvantageEvolution–Advantage:Incarnation&Evolutionvideo• MICSPlatform:AdvantageEvolution–Bosman,Julie.“PlanWouldRequireHomelesstoWorktoQualifyfor

RentSubsidies.”NewYorkTimes.April14,201• MICS Platform: Advantage Evolution – “To whose advantage is work advantage?” Institute of Children,

Poverty,andHomelessness.September1,2011• MICSPlatform:AdvantageEvolution–“FactSheet:WorkAdvantage.”DepartmentofHomelessServices

E. PRESENTATIONSKILLSOverthecourseofthesemester,studentswillmakeanumberofpresentationsaswellasparticipateinanextendedmock negotiation. Successful presentations and negotiations do not happen by chance, and this module (andespecially thepreparationmaterials) provides an introduction to some tools thatwill be helpful in this course andbeyond (it’s not necessary to take every point made in the materials at face value – some are definitely moreaspirationalthanpractical–thekeyistofindastylethatworksforyou).

PREPARATION• NYUClasses–Cuddy,Amy.“Yourbodylanguageshapeswhoyouare.”TEDTalk(2002)(video)• NYUClasses–NationalConferenceofStateLegislators. TipsforMakingEffectivePowerpointPresentations

(2017)• [Optional]NYUClasses–Harlow,Samantha.PresentationDesignandDelivery:BestPractices• [Optional]NYUClasses–“PowerpointTips”(LinkedInpresentation)


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CLASSSESSION2 SEPTEMBER30

A. ADVANTAGEDISCUSSIONTherewillbeadiscussionabouttheincarnation,evolutionandterminationoftheAdvantageprogram,whichwillbeinformedbytheDecisionModelingMICSpresentations.

PREPARATION• MICSPlatform:FamilyExperience-Advantage:FamilyExperiencevideo• MICSPlatform:AdvantageTermination–Advantage:Terminationvideo• MICS Platform: Family Experience - Elliot, Andrea. “Invisible Child: Dasani’s Homeless Life.” The New York

Times.December9,2013.• MICSPlatform:FamilyExperience–Harris,Elizabeth,“WhereNearlyHalfofPupilsAreHomeless,SchoolAims

toBeTeacher,Therapist,EvenSanta.”TheNewYorkTimes.June6,2016. • MICSPlatform:FamilyExperience-Wolfson,HowardandLindaGibbs,“Bloomberg’sRealAntipovertyRecord;

Under theMayor’s12-YearTenure,MoreThan900,000NewYorkersHaveMoved fromWelfare toWork.”WallStreetJournal.December17,2013.

• MICSPlatform:AdvantageTermination–NYC IndependentBudgetOffice.“AsRentalSubsidies forFamiliesEnd,TimeinShelterGrows.”February23,2012

• MICS Platform: Advantage Termination – Saul, Michael H. “Homeless Costs Shifted.”Wall Street Journal.March18,2013

• MICSPlatform:AdvantageTermination–Routhier,G.“HomelessAgain: FormerAdvantageTenantsAddingtoAlreadyRecordHomelessnessinNewYorkCity.”CoalitionfortheHomeless.June15,2012.

B. UNDERSTANDINGTIME-SERIESDATAMICSPRESENTATIONS TeamswillpresenttheirdecompositionofdifferentNYCDHSfamilyhomelessshelterdataaswellastheirconclusions.

Time-SeriesDataTeamPresentation SlidesdueSeptember28by11:55pmviaNYUClassesTime-SeriesDataTeamMemo MemodueSeptember29by11:55pmviaNYUClasses

C. FORECASTINGIForecasting encompasses techniques for predicting the future. In this class, students will build off of theirunderstandingof time-seriesdata, learninghowandwhen tousedifferent forecastingmethods. Forecasting Iwillintroducequalitativeandquantitativeforecastingandapplytimeseriestoolstodevelopingpredictivemodels.

PREPARATION• NYUClasses:E-Book–Lawrence,KennethD.,RonaldK.Klimberg,andSheilaM.Lawrence.Fundamentalsof

forecastingusingexcel.IndustrialPressInc.,2009.o Chapter3:BasicTimeSeriesAnalysisexcludingSection3.5

• NYUClasses:Hyndman,RobJ.,andGeorgeAthanasopoulos.Forecasting:principlesandpractice.2014.o Sections1/1-1/4and1/6:GettingStartedo Section2/5:EvaluatingForecastAccuracyo Section6/6:ForecastingwithDecompositiono [Optional]Sections3/1-3/3,3/6,and3/8:JudgmentalForecasting

Time-SeriesForecastingDataIndividualAssignment DueOctober13by11:55pmviaNYUClasses


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SITEVISIT–PATHCENTERANDHOMELESSSHELTERVISIT OCTOBER6

SITEVISIT(OPTIONALBUTVERYHIGHLYRECOMMENDED)

Approximately9:00am-2:00pm

Wewill spend theday visiting thePATH (PreventionAssistance andTemporaryHousing)Center,which is theNewYorkCityDepartmentofHomelessServicesintakecenterforhomelessfamiliesseekingtoenterthesheltersystem.Inaddition,wewillvisitahomelessfamilyshelterandhaveanopportunitytotouritandtalkwithstaffandresidents.

PREPARATION• AllpreviousreadingsespeciallyMICSSite:FamilyExperience

SiteVisitReflectionAssignment DueOctober9by11:55pmviaNYUClasses

StudentswhoareunabletoattendthesitevisitmaywriteareflectiononthesetwoarticlesfromtheMICSsite:

• MICS Platform: Family Experience - Elliot, Andrea. “Invisible Child: Dasani’s Homeless Life.” The New YorkTimes.December9,2013.

• MICSPlatform:FamilyExperience–Harris,Elizabeth,“WhereNearlyHalfofPupilsAreHomeless,SchoolAimstoBeTeacher,Therapist,EvenSanta.”TheNewYorkTimes.June6,2016.

SESSION3 OCTOBER14

A. SITEVISITDEBRIEFTheclasswillsharereactionstothesitevisitsanddiscusshowthevisitsinformedtheirunderstandingoftheissues.

PREPARATION• MICSPlatform:FamilyExperience-Advantage:FamilyExperiencevideo• MICS Platform: Family Homelessness – “A Theory of Poverty Destabilization: Why Low-income Families

BecomeHomelessinNewYorkCity.”InstituteforChildren,Poverty,&Homelessness.June2013.• MICSPlatform:FamilyExperience–Kastenbaum,Steve. “NYCHitwithHugeWaveofHomelessness.”CNN

Radio.January28,2013• MICS Platform: Family Homelessness – N. Smith, L. Flores, J. Lin and J. Markovic. Understanding Family

Homelessness in New York City: An In-Depth Study of Families’ Experiences Before and After Shelter. NewYork:VeraInstituteofJustice,2005.

B. FORECASTINGIIForecasting II will introduce a second type of quantitative forecast, a systems-based approach that lends itself toanalyzingactivitiesofspecifiedcohortsastheymovethroughacomplexsystem.

PREPARATION• NYUClasses–Meadows,DonellaH.ThinkinginSystems:APrimer.WhiteRiverJunction,VT:ChelseaGreen

Publishing(2008),Chapter1(pages11-27only)

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C. INTRODUCTIONTOFINANCIALDATATherewillbeadiscussionabouttheNewYorkCityOfficeofManagementandBudgetFinancialDataincludingfundingsourcesforvariousDHSinitiatives.

PREPARATION• MICSPlatform:BudgetingandFinancialAnalysis-webinar• [Optional]MICSPlatform:BudgetingandFinancialAnalysis-NYCIndependentBudgetOffice,“AlbanyShifts

theBurden–AstheCostsofShelteringtheHomelessRises,Federal&CityFundsareIncreasinglyTapped.”October2015.

• [Optional]MICSPlatform:BudgetingandFinancialAnalysis–NYCOfficeoftheComptroller.“AuditReportontheMonitoringoftheWorkAdvantageProgrambytheDepartmentofHomelessServices.”July15,2010.

• [Optional] MICS Platform: Budgeting and Financial Analysis – Congressional Research Service. “TheTemporaryAssistancetoNeedyFamilies(TANF)BlockGrant:ResponsestoFrequentlyAskedQuestions.”CRSPublicationRL32760.July2015.

D. STAKEHOLDERANALYSISLECTUREStakeholderanalysisenablesdecisionmakers to identifykey influencersandtheir relative importance. Fromthere,onecandevelopanappropriatestrategyforeachofthem

PREPARATION• MICSPlatform: InteractiveTools–FamiliarizeyourselfwithPolicyMaker5Software(labeledasStakeholder

Analysis)whichwasdesignedfortheChromebrowser.Wecannotrecommendstronglyenoughthatstudentsnotattempttouseotherbrowsers. Weareawareofbugs inotherbrowsers(includinganinabilitytosaveyourwork).WehavelearnedthatanymomentaryburdenofdownloadingChromeiswellworthit.

• NYUClasses–CFAR,“SweepingPeopleintoaCampaignforStrategicChange.”CFARBriefingNotes(1999).• NYU Classes – Glassman, Amanda, et al. "Political analysis of health reform in the Dominican Republic."

Healthpolicyandplanning14.2(1999):115-126.• NYUClasses–Reich,MichaelR."Appliedpoliticalanalysisforhealthpolicyreform."CurrentissuesinPublic

Health2(1996):186-191.• [Optional]NYUClasses–Varvasovszky,Zsuzsa,andRuairíBrugha."Astakeholderanalysis."Healthpolicyand

planning15.3(2000):338-345.

StakeholderAnalysisIndividualAssignment DueOctober21by11:55pmviaNYUClasses


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SESSION4 OCTOBER28

A. FORECASTINGIIIWewillrecaptheforecastingtoolsandcompleteanin-classcohortforecastingexercise.

B. STAKEHOLDERANALYSISMICSPRESENTATIONSTeamswillpresenttheresultsoftheirstakeholderanalysesfromtheMICScasestudy.

PREPARATION• MICSPlatform:FamilyHomelessness–AnElectionPrimeronNewYorkCity’sHomelessFamilies:ThePublic

PoliciesofFourMayors,1978-2013.NewYork:ICPH,2013.Pages1-30only• MICSPlatform:AdvantageEvolution–Frazier,I.HiddenCity.TheNewYorker.28October2013.

StakeholderAnalysisTeamPresentation SlidesdueOctober26by11:55pmviaNYUClassesStakeholderAnalysisTeamMemo MemodueOctober27by11:55pmviaNYUClasses

C. POLICYMAKINGINAPOLITICALCONTEXTPolicymaking is not conducted in a vacuum. Rather, it is played out in the context of disparate stakeholderswithcompetingdemands,afinitesetofresources,anever-changinglandscape,achargedpoliticalenvironment,andalackofcertainty.

PREPARATION• MICSPlatform:GoingForward–Wheredowegofromhere?Video• [Optional] MICS Platform: Going Forward – Canavan, D. and S. McDonald. “Ending Family Homelessness:

NationalTrendsandLocalSystemResponses.”NationalAlliancetoEndHomelessness.October2012• [Optional]MICSPlatform:Going Forward–Culhane,D., S.Metraux, andT.Byrne. “APrevention-Centered

ApproachtoHomelessnessAssistance:AParadigmShift?”HousingDebatePolicy.May2011• [Optional]MICS Platform: Homelessness Stakeholders – Shinn,M. B., Rog, D. R., & Culhane, D. P. (2005).

Familyhomelessness:Backgroundresearchfindingsandpolicyoptions.DepartmentalPapers(SPP).• [Optional] MICS Platform: Family Homelessness – O’Flaherty, B. “Housing Subsidies and Homelessness: A

SimpleIdea.”SPPResearchPaperNo.12-2.January25,2012

D. CAPACITYMANAGEMENTLECTURE&DISCUSSION Thislecturewillfocusontheconceptsandstrategiesformanagingcapacityanddemand.Therewillbeadiscussionofpotential DHS capacity management strategies and tactics that will build upon the lecture and establishedunderstandingoftheDHSfamilyhomelessshelterdataandsystem.

PREPARATION• NYU Classes: E-Book: Hollins, Bill, and Sadie Shinkins. Managing service operations: Design and

implementation.Sage,2006.–Chapter12exceptYieldManagementandManagingQueuessections• NYUClasses:Sasser,W.Earl."Matchsupplyanddemandinserviceindustries."HarvardBusinessReview54.6

(1976):133-140.• MICSPlatform:FamilyHomelessness–“TierIIHomelessShelterCapacity.”KeepingTrackOnline:TheStatus

ofNewYorkCityChildren.CitizensCommitteeforChildrenofNewYork.DataVisualization.Web.• NYU Classes – Rodak, Sabrina. “5 Proven Strategies to Improve Hospital Capacity Management” Becker’s

HospitalReview,June5,2012.• MICSPlatform:GoingForward–Colvin, Jill. “CitySpendingonHomelessShelterstoSoarto$800Million.”

DNAinfoNewYork,March7,2013.Web.• MICS Platform: Going Forward – Stevens, Harry and Greg Smith. “Thousands of New Yorkers living in

dangerous'clusterunits'ashomelesspopulationtops59,000,arecordhigh.”NewYorkDailyNews,February1,2015.Web.


14

SESSION5 NOVEMBER11

A. STRUCTUREDDECISION-MAKING&DECISIONMODELINGMostdecisions involveuncertaintyof somekind. In this class,wewill learnhow to createandusedecision trees,graphicdecisionmodelsthatsystematicallyincorporateuncertaintyandevaluatealternatives.

PREPARATION• CoursePacket–Wu,G.(1997).DecisionAnalysis.HarvardBusinessSchool#9-894-004,1-14.• NYUClasses–Kirkwood,CraigW."Chapter1:DecisionTrees.”DecisionTreePrimer.DepartmentofSupply

ChainManagement,ArizonaStateUniversityTempe,AZ(2002):85287-4706.• NYU Classes – E-Course: Alemi, Farrokh. “Decision Trees.”Decision Analysis in Healthcare. Ed.Wojtusiak,

Janusz. Fairfax: GeorgeMason University, 29 Sept 2008.Web Course. Reading required; audio and videooptional.

• [Recommended]NYUClasses–Davis,Jeff.“DecisionTrees.”(Length:10:39).OnlineVideo.YouTube.9Sept2011.Web.Thisisaworkedexample.

• [Optional]NYUClasses–“DecisionTrees:ChoosingbyProjecting ‘ExpectedOutcomes.’”MindTools,MindToolsLtd,n.d.Web.

• [Optional]NYUClasses–Kirkwood,CraigW."Chapter2RiskAversion:2.2UtilityFunctions.”DecisionTreePrimer.DepartmentofSupplyChainManagement,ArizonaStateUniversityTempe,AZ(2002):85287-4706.

B. NEGOTIATIONSLECTUREThisclasswilldiscussthebasicsofnegotiationaroundcomplex,multi-facetedissueswithdisparatestakeholders.

PREPARATION• Book–Fisher,Roger,WilliamL.Ury,andBrucePatton.Gettingtoyes:Negotiatingagreementwithoutgiving

in.Penguin,2011.–Chapters1,6,7and8• CoursePacket–Ware, JamesP.“BargainingStrategies:CollaborativeversusCompetitiveApproaches.”HBS

Product#480055-PDF-ENG.April1,1980.• NYU Classes – Mehta, Kandarp. “Five Essential Strategies for Creative Negotiations” IESE Insight. Fourth

Quarter,Issue15.2012.• NYUClasses–Lax,DavidandJamesSebenius.“Interests:TheMeasureofNegotiation”NegotiationJournal,

January1986.• NYUClasses–Perkins,Anne. “Negotiations: AreTwoHeadsBetter thanOne?” HarvardBusinessReview,

November-December1993.• [Optional]HBSPWebsite:Ertel,Danny.“GettingPastYes:NegotiatingAsIfImplementationMattered.”HBS

Product # R0411C-PDF-ENG. 2004. Available for purchase as an optional part of the course packet athttp://cb.hbsp.harvard.edu/cbmp/access/51132832

• [Optional] Book – Fisher, Roger,William L. Ury, and Bruce Patton.Getting to yes: Negotiating agreementwithoutgivingin.Penguin,2011.EntireBook

• [Optional]NYUClasses–Rackham,Neil.“TheBehaviorofSuccessfulNegotiators”fromNegotiation:Reading,ExerciseandCases.

IndividualNegotiationStrategyDocument DueNovember27by11:55pmviaNYUClasses

DecisionModelingIndividualAssignment DueDecember1by11:55pmviaNYUClasses


15

SESSION6 DECEMBER2

A. DECISIONMODELINGDISCUSSIONANDSYSTEMSAPPROACHTOTHEHOMELESSSHELTERSYSTEMInthefirstportionofthisclasssession,theclasswilldebrieftheirindividualassignmentanddiscusstheapplicationofdecisionmodeling topolicydecisionsparticularlyaround familyhomelessness. Thesecondpartof thesessionwilltake a systems approach to family shelter operations and planning and discuss the use of cohort analysis tounderstandandprojectthecharacteristicsofpopulations.

PREPARATION• MICS Platform: Family Homelessness – NYC Independent Budget Office. “The Rising Number of Homeless

Families inNYC,2002–2012:ALookatWhyFamiliesWereGrantedShelter, theHousingTheyHadLived inandWhereTheyCameFrom.”November2014

• [Optional]MICSPlatform:FamilyHomelessness–NYCComptrollerJohnLiu.“DownandOut:HowNewYorkCityPlacesitsHomelessShelters”May2013

B. MAYORALFORUM:NEGOTIATIONAROUNDNYCFAMILYHOMELESSPOLICYStudentswillbeassigned ingroups to representdifferent stakeholders in theNYCFamilyHomelessShelterSystem(e.g., providers, advocates, the City). Traditionally, the different stakeholders have not worked well together;nevertheless theMayor has called a forumwhere the stakeholders are charged to attempt to develop a series ofrecommendationsaroundfamilyhomelessnessinNYC.

C. MAYORALFORUMDEBRIEFThe Mayoral Forum will be discussed in terms of process, substance and results. Students will reflect on theexperienceasitrelatestotheirowndevelopmentaswellaspolicymakinginahighlypoliticalcontext.

SESSION7 DECEMBER16

A. FINALTEAMPRESENTATIONSEach team will prepare and present a presentation for the Mayor and the Deputy Mayor for Health and HumanServicesoutlining the current stateof theNYChomeless family shelter system (asofDecember2013), alternativesconsideredandtheteam’srecommendationsalongwithsupportingarguments.

FinalTeamPresentationandSlides SlidesdueDecember12by11:55pmviaNYUClasses

B. WRAPUPTimepermitting,theprofessorswillsummarizethecourseasstudentsreflectontheirexperiencefrombothacademicandexperientialperspectives.

C. GUESTSPEAKERWewillhaveaguestspeakerfromamongthestakeholdersgroupsinthefamilyhomelessnesssystem.

TeamMayoralPolicyMemo DueDecember22by11:55pmviaNYUClasses

FinalTeamPeerReview DueDecember22by11:55pm