Dr. Denis Onieal

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, 2007:

There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.

Margaret Thatcher, 1974: It will be years – not in my lifetime – before a woman becomes Prime Minister

Variety magazine, 1955:

Rock and Roll will be dead by June.

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Surgeon General of the United States William H. Stewart, speaking to the U.S. Congress in 1969:

We can close the book on infectious diseases

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943:

"With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market."

Business Week, August 2, 1968:

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It's probably a bad idea to say something can't or won't be done, especially in the realm of science and technology.

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Plus And

Minus

USE THE RIGHT TOOL

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Generally – What’s On The Horizon? •  Samsung and Oculus VR

(Facebook owns Oculus) will begin selling headsets that will create realistic 3-D worlds. Sony is working on a system for its Play Station

•  Like every other ‘new’

technology: •  Will there be enough content? •  Will there be enough users? •  Will we be in the Beta v VHS

standard competition?

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And in the fire service – is it a tool or a toy?

Jet-Axe? High Rise platforms suspended from helicopters? Rapid water? High visibility yellow fire trucks?

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Like other technologies, the fire service will continue to use simulations. The larger question is: Are they using them properly?

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Simulation Pro’s and Con’s

PRO: The biggest advantage is savings. Simulations take out the costs associated with building and re-building props. Of course, you have to calculate the cost of props. Depending upon the simulation, the level of detail can be greater in a prop. Simulations teach by giving students an experience. Adults learn better through experience.

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Simulation Pro’s and Con’s

PRO: The mistakes the student makes are truly learning experiences, not failures. The outcome isn’t damaging to the organization, personnel, or equipment. Provides consistent, constant and immediate feedback. Simulations, if properly constructed, can “fill the gap” between the classroom and the real world.

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Simulation Pro’s and Con’s

CON: There can be simulation errors that can alter the results. Programming is key. We are programming usually using theories about the way things work. You have to PROVE that your simulation works. The fact that it is a simulation. Some people have to do the real thing - to do it, to hear it, to hold it in their hand. To some it will be a game; not real.

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Simulations are not “training programs” in and of themselves. They are an additional tool or resource that can be integrated into existing curricula when and where appropriate. Simulations can be an efficient way to: • introduce new concepts • exercise learned skills • reinforce or sustain those concepts and skills in a safe environment

Proper Uses of Simulation

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Improper Use of Simulations

Simulations in training will likely fail if you: •  Use a simulation as a training program in and of

itself

•  Build a training program around a simulation application

•  Use the wrong simulation application for a training program

Simulation is an adjunct to a training program. It is not the training program.

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SIMULATION TYPES

1.  ANALYTICAL: Rarely used for training, their purpose is to simulate a process so that system behavior can be better understood.

2.  TRAINING: attempt to simulate human-machine

interfaces. The most common are driving simulators, flight simulators, pump simulators, nuclear power plant simulators.

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SIMULATION TYPES 3.  SCENE: Most fire service simulations fall into the

category of scene simulators: •  users to take their own digital photos and video •  overlay animated effects – e.g. smoke, flame, leaks.

Some add sound. 4.  VIRTUAL REALITY: Address the critical thinking

skills of the user. •  through progressive scenarios, trains the user to use

their critical thinking skills and sharpens their ability to anticipate situations

•  becomes more difficult requiring better skills – right now, mostly gaming

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The different types of simulations are mutually exclusive in that each type is essentially a different tool for a different purpose. The Training Simulator (2) used to: •  learn and practice motor skills •  learn and practice hand-eye coordination •  allow students to experience the human factors of the

man-machine interface. •  the best fire service examples are vehicle driving

simulators and pump panel simulators.

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The Scene Simulator (3) types are most useful as a training tool when used for: • pre-fire planning • size-up skills • communication skills • strategy and tactics • critical thinking • personnel accountability • ICS / deployment • SOP compliance • incident review (pre or post) on specific hazards or incidents within a department’s jurisdiction.

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Virtual Reality (4) simulators: •  show great promise, but the most difficult to integrate

into training programs. •  usually the most expensive and take higher-end

equipment to operate effectively •  should have some form of an evaluation tool included

as part of the application •  most useful in exposing students to the reality of the

potential consequences of their actions or inactions in real time

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Who Uses Simulation for Testing, and Why?

Principally the aviation industry: •  Simulate Weather conditions

•  Simulate take-off and landing emergencies

•  Simulate in-flight emergencies

•  Simulate dangerous emergency maneuvers

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They use simulations because the situations they simulate can happen, but they are too dangerous to execute real-time. (The V-1 cut)

They use simulations to replicate situations / system failures that do happen in order to identify better pilot training.

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Airlines also do “check-rides” - observing pilot performance during actual passenger flights. A check-pilot will show up at the airport and tell the pilots that s/he is going to ride in the jump seat.

They observe normal operations & asks questions about how to handle inflight emergencies. Has pilots go through check-lists for: •  Engine failure •  Fire •  Hijacking •  Instrument loss

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Simulation in Training

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There are a number of computer based simulations that are used successfully in training. There is a caution when training simulations are used in testing: •  Instructors teaching to the simulation

•  How well does it translate into the testing environment?

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“When performance in actual conditions cannot be duplicated, manipulative skills shall be permitted to be performed in a simulated environment, provided that simulation is demonstrated to lead to the successful evaluation of the skills required by the actual condition.”

NFPA 1000

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Simulation in Training

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We currently use simulation in training for firefighter skills; this is nothing new: •  Forcing a door •  Cutting a vent hole in a roof •  Using a fire extinguisher •  Pictures (moving or not) that convey information to

the student.

The question is the value of simulation in TESTING

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Video Exercises

Law Enforcement: Shoot / Don’t Shoot

Medicine: Anatomy / Surgery

Fire Scene

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Questions: 1.  Simulation or is it a game? Why?

2.  Could you use this to measure performance / competency? Why or why not?

3.  Is there feedback? In what form is the feedback?

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Before deciding on purchasing simulations, you must identify the benefits. •  Actual reduction in training costs? •  Reduced damages? •  Maximum safety? •  Expected increases in performance as a result of

introducing simulation as a tool or resource in a training program?

Before purchase, the integration process should include how the results of adding simulation will be measured.

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Purchase simulations just like you purchase a computer. Why and how am I going to use this tool? Are you purchasing a training simulator, a scene simulator, or virtual reality? Be cautious. Everything is being described as virtual reality. VR is the “IBM Compatible” of 15 years ago. Simulation has a purpose and a place. Ensure that you know what those are before you decide to purchase.

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Plus And

Minus

USE THE RIGHT TOOL