Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of playDr Paul Williamson Dept. of GeographyUniversity of Liverpool

Current MSM in the UK: an overview

ModelInstitutionStaticDynamicABMTax-benefitDemographicOtherPublicMultipleDWPXXXXMultipleTreasuryXXXXPPIXXXIFSXXOPERAStirlingXXXMOSESLeedsXXSCOTSIMLiverpoolXXSAGEMODSouthamptonXXXSimBritainSheffieldXXXEUROMODEssexXXXLawsonEssexX?XXXAndersonEssexS-ParamicsSIASXXXSimDELTADSCXXXSOCSIMLSEXXXCARESIMUEAXXXFEARLUSMLURIXADaPTSouthamptonXX?YorkX?LeedsXXX

Synthetically estimated spatial microdata

% of non-fitting synthetic combinationsPARTIALLY CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTIONSDistributionRural (South West)Middling England (East Mids.)Deprived industrial (North)Deprived urban (Outer London) SEG / Household composition0000SEG / Rooms0.5000Household composition / Dependants0000Dependants / Tenure0000Sex / marital status / tenure161.51.53.0Illness / sex01.500

Telephony: 2005/6Simulated household weekly telephone bill (landlines) (FES 2005/6)EEDA, LSOA level

Ward level comparison with BT billing data (EEDA, Ward level)Spearman rho = 0.7796, p < 0.001

Simulated work timeONS Time-Use Survey (2001) and Census 2001East of England, LSOAValidation: (Spearman rho = 0.8404, p < 0.001)Strong correlation with Census 2001 work time

% More happy than usual20012011

Happiness & Life EventsEventCorrelationTop 5 negative associationsRelationships (mine ending)-0.178Death (parent)-0.166Healthparent-0.139Death (other)-0.137Employment job loss-0.129

Top Five positive associationsRelationships (mine starting)0.160Employment job gain0.097Finance (house)0.097Pregnancy (mine)0.084Pregnancy (child's)0.053

OPERA(1) Costs (% disposable income) of various Local Tax structures

(2) Change in costs given changing Dementia prevalence

Workflow

ResearchObject

PortletMOSES

SimulationDatabaseAggregateTo Migrant PopulationAggregateTo VacantDwellingsMigrantgenerationmodelSpatial Interaction Model

Compute dwelling preferencefor eachmigrantUpdate Location andDwelling Characteristics143252Conventional migration distribution procedure

ABM in MOSESObserved MSM ABM

Modelling Individual Consumer Behaviour

ABM v. MSM?

t4t1t2t3The Global EpidemicSimulator

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