Michigan in 2004Who Are We?

presentation to

The Governor’s Policy Retreat

Kurt MetzgerCenter for Urban StudiesWayne State University

September 23, 2004

The State of Michigan Has Experienced A Steady Population Increase Since 1990

Total Population

9,955,795

10,079,985

9,310,462

9,000,000

9,200,000

9,400,000

9,600,000

9,800,000

10,000,000

10,200,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: Census Bureau – Population Estimates

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03

United StatesMichigan

Michigan Has Trailed the Nation, To Varying Degrees, in Annual Population Growth Since 1990

Percent Change

Source: Census Bureau – Population Estimates

Michigan Has Gained Population Since 2000 …….But How?

3,918Net Migration

82,169Net International Migration

-78,251Net Internal (Domestic) Migration

142,282Natural Increase

285,979Deaths

428,261Births

2000 - 2003Demographic Components

Source: Census Bureau Estimates

Natural Increase is An Important Component of Michigan’s Growth, But Has Shown a Steady Decrease

Since 1990Births - Deaths

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 00-01 01-02 02-03

Source: Census Bureau – Population Estimates

Michigan Has Consistently Been An Out-Migrant State in Terms of Its Domestic Population

Net Domestic Migration

-40,000

-35,000

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0 90-91

91-92

92-93

93-94

94-95

95-96

96-97

97-98

98-99

00-01

01-02

02-03

Source: Census Bureau – Population Estimates

Total Persons

200,000 to 599,707100,000 to 199,999

2,494 to 99,999-99,999 to -70

-199,999 to -100,000-861,169 to -200,000

Net Domestic Migration, 1995 to 2000United States of America

Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 PUMS 5%

WSU/CUS/Michigan Metropolitan Information Center March 2004/jcb

Who Are the Winners and Losers in the Michigan Migrant Wars Between 2000 and 2002?

687New York-2,598Tennessee

313New Jersey-1,955North Carolina-1,695

-2,538

-3,100-3,153-3,630

-13,657

Utah

Iowa

IndianaIllinoisOhioForeign Migration

Biggest Contributors

272South Carolina

385Texas

697California922Georgia

1,748Arizona5,738Florida

Biggest Draws

Source: Internal Revenue Service

International Migration Has Made Up A Great Deal of the Loss Due to Domestic Out-Migration

Net International Migration

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 00-01 01-02 02-03

Source: Census Bureau – Population Estimates

Ontonagan

Gogebic

Houghton

Baraga

Iron

Keweenaw

Dickinson

Menominee

Marquette

Delta

Alger

Manistee

Schoolcraft

Luce

Leelanau

Benzie Grand Traverse

Kalkaska

Antrim

Charlevoix

Emmet

Mackinac

Chippewa

Roscommon

Otsego

Crawford

Cheboygan

Oscoda

Montmorency

Presque Isle

Alcona

Alpena

Iosco

Berrien

Mason

Oceana

Lake

Newaygo

Muskegon

Ottawa

Van Buren

Allegan

Cass

Barry

Kalamazoo

St. Joseph

Ionia

Kent

Osceola

Wexford Missaukee

Clare

Montcalm

Mecosta

Calhoun

Branch

Eaton

Clinton

Isabella

Jackson

Hillsdale

Gratiot

Midland

Shiawassee

Saginaw

Ingham

Ogemaw

Bay

Arenac

Gladwin

Lenawee

Washtenaw

Genesee

Livingston

Monroe

Wayne

Lapeer

Oakland

Sanilac

Huron

Tuscola

St. Clair

Macomb

Percent Change30% to 36%20% to 29.9%10% to 19.9%0% to 9.9%

-12% to -0.1%

MichiganMichigan

"N

Lake Superior

LakeMichigan

LakeHuron

March 2001Wayne State University/Center for Urban Studies

1990 to 2000Population Change

Source: US Census Bureau

Counties in the Core of the Detroit Metro Area Experienced Domestic Out-migration in the 1990s

34026,434Livingston

3155,005Monroe

34,670-263,657Wayne6,564-4,849Washtenaw

3879,235St. Clair

26,872-3,720Oakland

6,024-7,170Macomb

1819,303Lapeer99,73599,735--199,465199,465MichiganMichigan

Net International Migration

Net Domestic Migration

Period covered: 4/1/90 – 7/1/99Source: Census Bureau

Domestic Out-migration Continued in Michigan and the Larger Metro Counties Post-2000

54311,816Livingston

3703,027Monroe

22,469-88,303Wayne7,8131,110Washtenaw

2922,965St. Clair

18,041-25,122Oakland

7,58710,246Macomb

1431,788Lapeer83,06283,062--75,37775,377MichiganMichigan

Net International Migration

Net Domestic Migration

Period covered: 4/1/00 – 7/1/03Source: Census Bureau

TOTAL POPULATION, 1960STATE OF MICHIGAN

Percent of Total Population

Percent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Male Female

TOTAL POPULATION, 1970STATE OF MICHIGAN

Percent of Total Population

Percent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Male Female

TOTAL POPULATION, 1980STATE OF MICHIGAN

Percent of Total Population

Percent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Male Female

TOTAL POPULATION, 1990STATE OF MICHIGAN

Percent of Total Population

Percent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Male Female

TOTAL POPULATION, 2000STATE OF MICHIGAN

Percent of Total Population

Percent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Male Female

TOTAL POPULATION, 2015STATE OF MICHIGAN

Percent of Total Population

Percent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Male Female

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Under 5years

5 - 17 years 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 54 years 55 - 64 years 65 years+

19902000

The Aging of the Baby Boomers Has Increased the Population Share of Michigan’s Older Cohorts

Percent of Total

Source: Census Bureau

9.6

14.2

29.4

10.0

15.1

29.5

9.4

13.7

29.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Under 5years

5 - 17 years 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 54 years 55 - 64 years 65 years+

United StatesMichiganNorth Carolina

While Michigan Tracks Well With the Nation, Its Competitors Lead in Key Cohorts

Percent of Total

Source: Census Bureau

Southeast Michigan’s Population Will Age Slightly Faster than the Nation’s

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2010 2020 2025 2030

0-4 years5-17 years18-34 years35-64 years65+ years

Percent of Southeast Michigan’s Population

Source: SEMCOG

Seniors Will Represent 98 Percent of Regional Growth Over Next 30 Years

11.9574,838Total Pop.

99.0561,77465+

- 0.5- 8,61035-64

1.213,12118-34

- 1.6- 15,2275-17

7.123,7800-4

% Change% Change# Change# Change

Percent of Population Age 65 and OverSoutheast Michigan, 2000

0 - 10 percent

10.01 - 15 percent

15.01 - 20 percent

More than 20 percent

St. Clair

MacombOakland

Livingston

Washtenaw Wayne

Monroe

2000

Percent of Population Age 65 and OverSoutheast Michigan, 2000 and 2030

0 - 10 percent

10.01 - 15 percent

15.01 - 20 percent

More than 20 percent

St. Clair

MacombOakland

Livingston

Washtenaw Wayne

Monroe

2000

0 - 10 percent

10.01 - 15 percent

15.01 - 20 percent

More than 20 percent

St. Clair

MacombOakland

Livingston

Washtenaw Wayne

Monroe

2030

White, Non-Hispanics Are Projected to Approach “Minority Status” by 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

White alone, not HispanicBlack aloneAsian AloneHispanic

Percent of U.S. Population

The Racial Makeup of Southeast Michigan Showed Dramatic Change

nc90,23390,2330Multi Race

-11.9-1,95414,46516,419Native Am.83.656,580124,26667,686Asian

121.93,6776,6933,016Other Race

52.246,682136,13689,454Hispanic

8.481,9051,051,595969,690Black-1.0-34,0983,410,1053,444,203White5.3243,0254,833,4934,590,468Total

% Chg% Chg# Chg# Chg2000200019901990

WHITE, NONHISPANIC POPULATION, 2000STATE OF MICHIGAN

Percent of Total Population

Percent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Male Female

HISPANIC POPULATION, 2000STATE OF MICHIGAN

Percent of Total Population

Percent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Male Female

AFRICAN-AMERICAN POPULATION, 2000STATE OF MICHIGAN

Percent of Total Population

Percent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+Male Female

The Movement of Minorities to the Suburbs Marked the Decade of the 1990s

18,694

8,007

3,108

1,035

9,369

1,033

4,457

979

Hispanic

- 112,357

- 44,235

12,095

14,999

13,452

9,203

34,402

38,343

White

26,67212,97021,866Out-Wayne

19,69224,82742,907Oakland1,882205439St. Clair7,4148,7797,992Washtenaw

18,6641,219- 2,563Detroit

1,620115378Monroe12,8418,00510,838Macomb

1,44846048Livingston

Multi & Other

AsianBlack

New Immigrants Had a Large Impact on Southeast Michigan in the 1990s

27,177

10,101

411

20,364

329

7,119

333

Arrived in Arrived in 1980s1980s

4866,105Wayne

4553,009Oakland281,245St. Clair5718,914Washtenaw

34940Monroe

3423,760Macomb

331,535Livingston

% of Total % of Total Foreign BornForeign Born

Arrived in Arrived in 1990s1990s

N

Figure 4Population Density of International Migrantsin Southeast Michigan by Census Tract, 1995-2000

?? - Migration and its Impact on Southeast Michigan, 1990-2003

Less than 50

50 to 99

100 to 199

200 or greater

COUNTY TOWNSHIP CITY Village

1995-2000 InternationalMigrants Per Square Mile

Chelsea

VAN BUREN

LUNAPIER

Dundee

MONROE

Estral Beach

South RockwoodMILAN

FLAT ROCK

RIVERVIEWManchesterSALINE

BELLEVILLE

ROMULUS

TAYLOR ECORSE

RIVER ROUGE

Dexter WESTLAND

INKSTER

WAYNE

DEARBORN

DETROIT

HIGHLAND PARKHAMTRAMCK

LIVONIA

PLYMOUTH

NOVI

WIXOM

FARMINGTONHILLS

SOUTHFIELD

Beverly HillsFranklin

BinghamFarms

BIRMINGHAM

CLAWSON

ROYALOAK

HUNTINGTON WDS.

FERNDALEOAKPK.

HAZEL PARKCENTER LINE

EASTPOINTE

ST. CLAIR SHORES

HARPER WDS. GROSSE PT. WOODS.

Grosse Pt. Shores

GROSSE PT. FARMS

GROSSE PT.

GROSSE PT. PARK

WARREN ROSEVILLEMADISONHTS.

BRIGHTON

Wolverine Lake

BLOOMFIELDHILLS

SYLVAN LAKE

TROY

STERLINGHEIGHTS

FRASER

HANDY

PONTIAC

AUBURNHILLS

Clarkston

ROCHESTER

ROCHESTERHILLS

NEW BALTIMORE

MARINE CITY

ALGONAC

New Haven

INDEPENDENCE

SPRINGFIELDROSETYRONEDEERFIELDCOHOCTAHCONWAY

HOLLY

Holly

GROVELANDBRANDON

Ortonville

Oxford

Lake Orion

Leonard

Romeo

Armada

ST. CLAIR

MARYSVILLE

PORT HURON

Capac

YPSILANTI

Barton Hills

ANNARBOR

Pinckney SOUTH LYON

YALE

Emmett

RICHMOND

MEMPHIS

Fowlerville

HOWELL

Milford

LAKEANGELUS

PLEASANT RDG.

BERKLEYLATHRUPVILLAGE

GARDEN CITY

KEEGO HARBOR

ORCHARD LAKE

NORTHVILLE

WALLED LAKE

PETERSBURG

Maybee

Carleton

GROSSE ILE

ROCKWOOD

TRENTON

ALLEN PK.

SOUTHGATE

LINCOLN PK.

MELVINDALE

GIBRALTAR

WYANDOTTE

MOUNT CLEMENS

DEARBORNHTS.

UTICA

FARMINGTON

RAISINVILLEFRENCHTOWN

MONROE

LASALLE

ERIEBEDFORDWHITEFORD

SUMMERFIELD IDAFRENCHTOWN

DUNDEE

BERLIN

EXETERASH

LONDONMILAN

WOODHAVEN

SUMPTER

BROWNSTOWN

HURON BROWNSTOWN

AUGUSTAYORKSALINEBRIDGEWATERMANCHESTER

PITTSFIELDYPSILANTI

SHARON FREEDOM LODI

SYLVAN LIMASCIO

SUPERIOR CANTON

ANN ARBOR

REDFORDNORTHFIELDWEBSTER SALEM PLYMOUTH

NORTHVILLELYNDON DEXTER

ROYAL OAK

UNADILLA PUTNAM HAMBURG GREEN OAK LYON

IOSCO MARION GENOA BRIGHTON

HOWELLOCEOLA HARTLAND HIGHLAND WHITE LAKE

WATERFORD

MILFORD

COMMERCE

WESTBLOOMFIELD

CLINTONHARRISON

BLOOMFIELD

MACOMB CHESTERFIELD

IRA

COTTRELLVILLE

CLAY

EAST CHINA

CHINACASCO

CLAY

CLAY

LENOX

SHELBY

RAYWASHINGTONOAKLANDORION

OXFORD ADDISON BRUCEARMADA

RICHMOND COLUMBUS

KIMBALLWALESRILEYBERLIN

MUSSEYEMMETT

KENOCKEECLYDE FORT GRATIOT

PORT HURON

ST. CLAIR

BURTCHVILLEGRANTGREENWOODBROCKWAY

LYNN

ST.

CL

AIR

MA

CO

MB

MACOMB

ST. CLAIR

OA

KL

AN

D

LIV

ING

ST

ON

OA

KL

AN

D

MA

CO

MB

WA

YN

E

WA

SH

TE

NA

W

WASHTENAW

LIVINGSTON

WAYNE

OAKLAND MACOMB

WASHTENAW

MONROE

WAYNE

19.6

28.6

21.0

6.3

15.5

8.9

21.9

28.4

20.5

6.8

15.3

7.2

16.6

31.3

8.1

23.3

7.0

13.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Less than highschool

High schoolgrad

Some College,no degree

Associatedegree

Bachelor'sdegree

Graduate orprofessional

degree

United StatesMichiganNorth Carolina

Michigan Exceeds the Nation in Educational Attainment Until College Graduation

Percent of Total

Source: Census Bureau

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

High school grad Some college, nodegree

Associate degree College degree

18-24 years25-34 years35-44 years45-64 years65 years+

While College Graduation Rates Have Increased in Younger Cohorts, Michigan Still Has A Way to Go

Percent of Total

Source: Census Bureau

Percent of PopulationWith Less Than a 9th Grade Education, 2000

Percent of PopulationLess than 4%4% to 4.9%5% to 5.9%6% to 6.9%7% to 24%

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, Summary File 3, Summary Level 060, Table P37. Map Credit: Jurisdiction boundaries are County Subdivisions derived from U.S. Census Bureau TIGER 2000 files. Mapped by Wayne State UniversityMichigan Metropolitan Information Center, Detroit, Michigan.

Percent of PopulationWith a Bachelor's Degree or Higher, 2000

Percent of PopulationLess than 9%

9% to 11.9%12% to 13.9%14% to 17.9%18% to 79%

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, Summary File 3, Summary Level 060, Table P37. Map Credit: Jurisdiction boundaries are County Subdivisions derived from U.S. Census Bureau TIGER 2000 files. Mapped by Wayne State UniversityMichigan Metropolitan Information Center, Detroit, Michigan.

Persons with a High School Diploma or Less, 2000Tri-County Area

Percent of Persons

80% to 100%60% to 79.9%40% to 59.9%20% to 39.9%Less than 20%

Persons with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher, 2000Tri-County Area

Percent of Persons

62% to 78%46% to 61.9%30% to 45.9%15% to 29.9%Less than 15%

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65+

Net Domestic MigrationInternational In-Migration

Michigan Replaced Young Domestic Out-Migrants with Young Immigrants

Total Persons

Source: Census Bureau: 5% PUMS File

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Less than H.S.Grad

H.S. Graduate Some College Bachelor'sDegree

Graduate Degree

Net Domestic MigrationInternational In-Migration

Among 25 to 34 Year Olds, Michigan Found College Educated Immigrants Making Up for Domestic Loss

Total Persons

Source: Census Bureau: 5% PUMS File

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Less than H.S.Grad

H.S. Graduate Some College Bachelor'sDegree

Graduate Degree

Net Domestic MigrationInternational In-Migration

Among 35 to 54 Year Olds, While Total Gains Were Somewhat Less, the Pattern Remained the Same

Total Persons

Source: Census Bureau: 5% PUMS File

College Graduation Rates Range Widely College Graduation Rates Range Widely Across Racial and Ethnic GroupsAcross Racial and Ethnic Groups

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

HmongPuerto

MexicanBlack

ChaldeanAlbanian

BangladeshiIraqi

DominicanTotal

VietnameseLebaneseTotal Arab

CubanUkrainianJordanian

SyrianArmenian

PalestinianColumbian

KoreanJapanese

ChinesePakistani

FilipinoEgytian

Asian Indian

Poverty Rates for Children Have Increased Between 2000 and 2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Detroit PMSA Oakland Wayne Macomb Detroit

2000

2003

Perc

ent

Source: American Community Survey

Unemployment Rates Have Returned to the Level of the Early 1990’s

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Detroit PMSADetroit City

Source: MI Dept. of Career Development/LMI

Detroit is the Most Decentralized Employment Metro in the U.S.

57.942.111.4Dallas

56.2

38.1

36.4

42.7

33.3

24.9

42.0

38.1

22.0

10-mile share

43.815.3Cleveland

61.911.3Atlanta

63.618.7Chicago

57.39.4Greensboro-Win Salem

66.78.4Riverside-San Bern

75.15.6Tampa – St. Pete

58.08.1St. Louis

61.96.9Los Angeles-Long Beach

78.15.2Detroit

Outside 10-miles

3-mile share

Metro Area

Source: Brookings Institution, 2001

Michigan in 2004Who Are We?

presentation to

The Governor’s Policy Retreat

Kurt MetzgerCenter for Urban StudiesWayne State University

September 23, 2004