michigan 1 motor vehicle outlook fta revenue estimating conference waterville valley, new hampshire...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1 1
Mic
hig
a n
Motor Vehicle OutlookMotor Vehicle Outlook
FTA Revenue Estimating Conference
Waterville Valley, New HampshireSeptember 25, 2000
Mark Haas, DirectorJeffrey Guilfoyle, EconomistOffice of Revenue and Tax
AnalysisDepartment of Treasury
State of Michigan
![Page 2: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2 2
Mic
hig
a n
U. S. Automotive Outlook
• What Affects Auto Purchases
• Changing Auto Market
• Shares of Production
• U. S. Automotive Outlook
![Page 3: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3 3
Mic
hig
a n
Factors Affecting Auto SalesAbility to Buy
1999 2000
Disposable Income Green Green
Vehicle Prices Green Green
Interest Rates Green Green
Affordability Green Green
Debt Yellow Yellow
![Page 4: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4 4
Mic
hig
a n
Real Disposable Income Growth
-3.0%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
1970 1980 1990 1999
Change in Per Capita Income
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
![Page 5: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5 5
Mic
hig
a n
New Domestic Car Prices Stable
0
10
20
30
1970 1980 1990 1999
Thousands of Dollars
Sources: AAMA & Automotive News, Market Data Book 2000
Import
$30,347
(-5.1%)
Domestic
$18,724
(0.8%)
![Page 6: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6 6
Mic
hig
a n
Low Interest Rates Help Sales
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1973:I 1978:I 1983:I 1988:I 1993:I 2000:II
Average Vehicle Finance Rate
Source: Comerica Bank
7.84%
17.78%
![Page 7: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7 7
Mic
hig
a n
Best Affordability Since 1980
20
25
30
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
Weeks of Income
Source: Comerica Bank Economics Department
24.4 weeks in 1999
23.1 weeks 1st half 200022.9 weeks in 1979
![Page 8: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8 8
Mic
hig
a n
Consumer Debt Payments Installment, Mortgage & Auto Leases
11
12
13
14
15
16
1983 1987 1991 1995Percent of Disposable Personal Income
Source: Michigan Department of Treasury
14.8%
2000
![Page 9: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9 9
Mic
hig
a n
Factors Affecting Auto SalesWillingness to Buy
1999 2000
Consumer Attitudes Green Green
Age of Vehicle Green Yellow
Demographics & Tastes Green Green
Oil Prices Yellow Yellow
Stock Market Green Yellow
![Page 10: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10 10
Mic
hig
a n
Consumer Car Buying Attitudes
50
80
110
140
1973:I 1978:I 1983:I 1988:I 1993:I 2000:II
Index: Good - Bad + 100
Source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center, July 2000
158144
![Page 11: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11 11
Mic
hig
a n
Vehicle Age Declining
5
6
7
8
9
1989 1994 1999
U.S. Lt. Vehicle Age
1999 Median for Trucks 7.2 years
1999 Median for Cars 8.3 years
Source: Automotive News, 1999 Market Data Book
![Page 12: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12 12
Mic
hig
a n
Vehicles Per Household
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
1.90
1.22
1.81
![Page 13: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13 13
Mic
hig
a n
Oil Prices Rising
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 2000:Q2
Dollars Per Barrel
Source: Monthly Energy Review, Standard and Poor’s DRI
$27.10
$35.24
![Page 14: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14 14
Mic
hig
a n
More Dependent on Petroleum Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999
Net Imports as % of U.S. Supplies
Source: Monthly Energy Review
Total 56.6%
All-OPEC
Persian Gulf
![Page 15: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15 15
Mic
hig
a n
Stock Market Growth Slows
0
600
1200
1800
Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99
S&P 500 Index
Aug-00
1518
![Page 16: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16 16
Mic
hig
a n
Demand For Motor Vehicles
• Trend
• Wealth Effect
• Economic Conditions
• Price Incentives
![Page 17: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17 17
Mic
hig
a n
Trend
0
8
16
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Millions of Units
Vehicle Sales Trend
Source: Michigan Department of Treasury
Sales
![Page 18: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18 18
Mic
hig
a n
Motor Vehicle Production
• Capacity Utilization
• Worker Bonuses
• Occupational Mix Changing
• Improved Vehicle Production Management
• Improved Vehicle Demand Management
![Page 19: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19 19
Mic
hig
a n
1999 Production and CapacityNorth America
9.027
7.996
8.877
8.302
Cars Trucks
Millions of Vehicles
Production Capacity
Source: Automotive News, 2000 Market Data Book
92%
111%
![Page 20: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20 20
Mic
hig
a n
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Average Per Autoworker
Big 3 Profit Sharing Checks
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports
Daimler Chrysler
Ford $8,000
GM $1,775
$8,100
![Page 21: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21 21
Mic
hig
a n
Occupation Mix Shifts in Michigan’s Vehicle Industry
15
17
19
21
1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
Share of Professional Jobs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Economy.Com
21.8%
![Page 22: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22 22
Mic
hig
a n
Improved Vehicle Production Management
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Inventory to Sales Ratio
Source: Bureau of the Census
0.52
![Page 23: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23 23
Mic
hig
a n
Improved Vehicle Demand Management
0
10
20
30
40
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 '00Q1
Leasing Share of Financing
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports, Economy.Com, WEFA
25.2%
35.7%
![Page 24: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24 24
Mic
hig
a n
2000 Forecast Accuracy
Aug 1999Forecast
SeptUpdate
WEFA Group 15.4 17.2
Standard & Poor’sDRI
15.7 17.5
Univ. of Michigan 16.0 17.2
Blue Chip 15.3 16.7
![Page 25: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25 25
Mic
hig
a n
Light Vehicle Forecasts
2001 2002
WEFA Group 15.9 16.0
Standard & Poor’sDRI
16.6 17.0
Univ. of Michigan 16.1 15.8
Blue Chip 16.0 N/A
![Page 26: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26 26
Mic
hig
a n
U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookCar and Light Truck Sales Forecast
Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000
Forecast
![Page 27: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27 27
Mic
hig
a n
U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookCar Sales Forecast
8.58.3 8.1
8.78.9
8.38.1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Millions
Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000
Forecast
![Page 28: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28 28
Mic
hig
a n
U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookLight Truck Sales Forecast
6.5 6.87.3
8.1 8.37.8 7.7
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Millions
Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000
Forecast
![Page 29: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29 29
Mic
hig
a n
U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookSummary
• Record Level Sales
• Vehicle Mix Continues to Shift
• Income and Affordability Key to Sales
• Near Capacity Production
• Oil Prices and Stock Market Uncertain
![Page 30: Michigan 1 Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle,](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e165503460f94b01cc0/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30 30
Mic
hig
a n
Motor Vehicle OutlookMotor Vehicle Outlook
FTA Revenue Estimating Conference
Waterville Valley, New HampshireSeptember 25, 2000
Mark Haas, DirectorJeffrey Guilfoyle, EconomistOffice of Revenue and Tax
AnalysisDepartment of Treasury
State of Michigan