michael monticino, university of north texas, institute of applied sciences (nsf biocomplexity in...
TRANSCRIPT
Michael Monticino,
University of North Texas, Institute of Applied Sciences(NSF Biocomplexity in the Environment CNH BCS-0216722)
Modeling Coupled Natural-Human Systems in the Big
Thicket and Beyond
Overview
• Context• Objectives • Study Sites• Models• BT Land-Use Values • Applications
Context
• Human social system and ecosystem dynamics traditionally treated as if they progressed independently– Ecologists studied pristine areas to determine LC succession
dynamics– Sociologists studied population shifts from rural to urban LU as
driven almost exclusively by socio-economic forces
• Now accepted that social systems and ecosystems must be coupled to be fully understood – Moved beyond merely descriptive studies of the mutual
interactions– Advances in complex systems modeling and increased
computational capacity make possible substantive investigations
Context
• Dynamics of LU change occur within context of individual and cultural value systems
• LU practices are part of people’s ethnic identity– Hunting, fishing, and medicine gathering are part of collective identities of
indigenous peoples– Small-scale horse and cattle ranches in Texas are more attributable to identity
values than economic imperatives• Impact of values-driven LU/LC changes on ecosystems have a feedback
effect on social dynamics – Collective effects of values-driven decisions on one another and on the
landscape may frustrate the very values on which they are based
Human DecisionsHuman Decisions
Ecosystem EffectsEcosystem Effects
LU ChangeLU ChangeExternal FactorsExternal Factors
Project Objectives
• Gain insight into the role of cultural values in LU decisions• Study emergent dynamics of LU/LC change derived from
CNHS models – Informed through ethnographic methods– Identify essential trends and sensitivities of dynamics to cultural
values
• Models applied to study sites that vary along set of natural and social gradients – Identify general features of social-ecological LU/LC dynamics
• Provide stakeholders and policy makers with modeling tools to anticipate consequences of LU/LC decisions
Study Areas
• Elm Fork Trinity River Greenbelt Corridor, North Texas
• Big Thicket National Preserve, Southeast Texas
• Caparo Forest Reserve, West Venezuela
• Upper Botanamo River basin, East Venezuela
• Marina Baixa catchment, Alicante, Spain
Study Areas
• All sites characterized by accelerating LU/LC change– Similar
pressures on social systems and ecosystem services
Study Areas
• Sites lie at varying points along cultural, climatological, economic, and political gradients– Provide base points to synthesize effects of these
gradients on LU/LC change– Representative of social-ecological dynamics of
similar places around the world
wetPrecipitation
MB UBNT
dry
BT CF
developedEconomicdeveloping
BTMB NTUB/CF
developedPolitical-Legal Infrastructuredeveloping
UB/CF MB NT/BT
Cultural localcosmopolitan
MB NT BT UBCF
Model Structure
• Three main components– GIS-based development
potential map– Natural systems model– Multi-agent model
• MAM developed from focus group sessions, surveys and structured interviews– Values represented in
statistical decision analysis framework
Development Potential Map
• Scores the development suitability of each parcel of undeveloped land– Determines relative suitability of each
development type• Factors
– Distance to the nearest road (major or minor),
– Distance to infrastructure– Population density within a specified
radius around the parcel– Density of each development type within
a specified radius– Natural and mandated impediments
• Parameterized through historical LU data• Implemented for NT and BT areas
1988
1999
Coupled Models
• Natural system model represents land-cover transition, hydrological and wildlife habitat response– Emphasis in North Texas
on hydrology and municipal infrastructure demands
– Habitant focus in Big Thicket study
Coupled Models
• Human system based on multi-agent model– Captures essential
stakeholder interactions and decision processes
– Provides flexible structure for investigating growth management strategies and sensitivity of outcomes to variations in stakeholder values
Sell
Hold
Owners of Undeveloped
Land Protest/Not
Development Proposal
Residents
Regulatory Government
Agent
Elect
Government
Approve,Modify or
Deny
Economic Model (Land Price Trends)
Natural SystemModel: Flooding, Water Quality, Recreation,
Wildlife Metrics
Residential, Commercial, Industrial Developer
DevelopmentPotentialModel
Type of
Development
Proposal
Sell
Hold
Owners of Undeveloped
Land Protest/Not
Development Proposal
Residents
Regulatory Government
Agent
Elect
Government
Elect
Government
Approve,Modify or
Deny
Economic Model (Land Price Trends)
Natural SystemModel: Flooding, Water Quality, Recreation,
Wildlife Metrics
Residential, Commercial, Industrial Developer
DevelopmentPotentialModel
Type of
Development
Proposal
Multi-Agent Model
• Agents represent stakeholders influencing land-use decisions– Agents chose actions
that best conform to their values as modeled by multi-attribute utility functions
• Interactions and feedback– Between classes of
stakeholders, and between natural and human systems
– Natural system feedback can affect change in agent value structure
Scenario 1 Rank _______
Residential Setting: Dense tract home developments have been constructed in the area. Economic Property Value: Property values have decreased. Neighboring Landuse: The area has remained primarily residential with no commercial or industrial developments. Natural Setting: Within the vicinity there are several natural areas, such as park areas set aside by developers, with native trees and wildlife habitat. Government Regulation and Services: Green Valley has been incorporated as a separate municipality with some services (garbage, police and fire), low taxes, and some landuse zoning. Community Effort: Because of both actual and proposed changes in the area you have been become moderately active in community activities, this includes attending homeowner association meetings and regularly attending public meetings. This takes up about 4 hours of your time a month. Recreation Access: Development in the area has impaired access to the Greenbelt and limited the ability to hike, bike, and ride horses in the area.
NLNLTrTrWW UkUkUkU
Agents Classes and Types• Agent classes characterized by available actions and basis for selecting
actions. – Landowner: individual owners of large parcels of land suitable for
residential/commercial/ industrial development– Commercial Landowner: Organizations such as timber companies that
own large parcels of undeveloped land– Developer: Residential/commercial/industrial developers– Homeowner (citizen): Resident representatives that can protest
proposed developments and initiate changes in government– Government: Agents that have final regulatory control of development
decision– NGOs and NPS: Initiate and sustain protection of undeveloped land
and habitant• Agent types within a class characterized by different value structures that
potentially lead to different actions
Agents in Big Thicket
• Stakeholders surveyed – Timber companies– NGOs and NPS– Owners of 100 acres or greater
tracts of undeveloped land in Hardin County
• Objective was to elicit circumstances and values that might lead to LU/LC changes in region
• Responses validate anecdotal accounts obtained through separate interviews with local conservation activists and real estate agents
Agents in Big Thicket
• Timber Management– Temple Inland– Molpus Timber Management– Sustainable Forest Technologies– International Paper– Louisiana Pacific (did not participate)
• Trend towards smaller, more dispersed holdings
• Timber economic model primary driver in decisions
• View themselves as”better…neighbors than somebody that was selling land for real estate.”
• NPS and NGOs– National Park Service– The Nature Conservancy– BTA– The Conservation Fund
• Primary expressed concern is minimizing habitant fragmentation
• Interesting contrast with timber company representatives and landowners about pace of development threatening region
Landowners in Big Thicket
• Surveyed owners of 100 acres or greater tracts of undeveloped land in Hardin County– Sample represented 30% of
these landowners • Portion of survey focused on
what factors may influence landowners to sell their land for development
• Variety of uses– Primary residences, second
homes, hunting, timber harvesting, cattle ranching and investment
Landowners in Big Thicket
• Two broad groups of LU attitudes and values
– Those who express a deep attachment to land that they have lived on for a long time or that has been in their family for generations
– Those who value land primarily for its economic potential
• Wealth oriented landowner typically acquired land for timber harvesting or resell speculation
• Tradition oriented landowners tend to be older, having bought or inherited land decades ago
– Those who inherited their properties express hope of keeping land in the family.
– Common statement is “[land is] part of my heritage since way before the turn of the century. A homestead for future generations meant to be in the family”
Landowners in Big Thicket
• Many tradition-oriented landowners express genuine concern about preserving open spaces, wildlife habitat and landscape integrity– And yet, same people that would “love for
area to stay as is” also welcome convenience of new roads and stores and accompanying residential development
• Contradictory view appears to arise from resignation to perceived progress and pragmatism – “City people in rural areas are just part of
life”– “[development is better] than trailers sitting
around beautiful Thicket” – “people should be able to do what they
want with their property free from lots of government restrictions”
BT Decision Flow
Government Agents
Timber Company
Landowner Agent
Development Preservation
Potential Map
Developer Agent
NPS
NGO
Homeowner Agents
Economic and Tax Model
Sell Hold
Buyer Category
Sell Hold
Buyer Category
Propose Purchase
Model Applications• Primary focus on effectiveness of growth
management strategies in slowing development• Creation of open-space preserves.
– Typically, land is purchased based on ecological concerns, or when land fortuitously becomes available
– Alternative is to also target land based on landowner values
– Leverage land-use values of neighboring landowners to effectively protect more land from development.
• Dispersed open-space strategy preserves more undeveloped land than a concentrated strategy
• Strategies that purchased parcels from tradition-oriented landowners were more effective in slowing development than purchasing from wealth-oriented landowners
– Utilization of human-value map• Key sensitivities of model
– Land-price assumptions– Landowner values – Spatial interactions between landowners
Model Applications – City of Denton
• High density, mixed-use development proposed on northeastern edge of Denton’s ETJ – Denton had choice of annexing area to
gain planning and zoning oversight or losing control of development on city’s northern boundary
– Residents feared higher taxes with little perceived benefit
– City officials countered that proposed development would lead to destruction of rural lifestyle residents believed they were protecting
• Worked with Denton to adapt model to demonstrate potential development patterns– Impact on area surrounding development– Impact on municipal services demand
City of Denton Scenario
• Test parcel set to high density development compared to open-space preserve– 35 years out– Dynamics of future
development
Results
• Development of parcel had small effect when viewed across entire study area
• However parcel’s development has pronounced local effect– Significant
increased level of high-density development
Big Thicket Model
• Potential map, agent model and habitant model are completed– Performing sensitivity analysis– Integrating models
• Developing scenarios to study effects of LU trends on habitant