michael l. jurewicz, sr. wfo binghamton, ny northeast regional operational workshop november 5, 2009
TRANSCRIPT
- Slide 1
- Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr. WFO Binghamton, NY Northeast Regional Operational Workshop November 5, 2009
- Slide 2
- AR TC Tracks and PRE Locations All AR TC TracksAll AR PPTC Tracks; with PRE centroids (colored dots)
- Slide 3
- Mid-level Streamlines Representative TC Tracks TC Rainfall PREs LL e -Ridge Axis See inset UL Jet Conceptual Model: LOT PREs Ahead Of SR Or AR TCs Revised and updated from Fig. 13 of Bosart and Carr (1978)
- Slide 4
- Bill
- Slide 5
- Brief History of Bill Himself Bill was initially a Cape Verde tropical wave, which became a named storm on 15 August From 19-23 August, Bill attained hurricane status well off the U.S. East Coast (briefly reached Category 3) From 23-25 August, Bill transitioned to an extra- tropical system, as it recurved into the westerlies southeast of the Canadian maritime provinces
- Slide 6
- Bills Approximate Path
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- Heavy Rainfall Event across New England
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- Afternoon Rainfall on 22 August Up to 7 (175 mm) rainfall
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- Radar Loop
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- Water Vapor Loop
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- 250 mb at 12z, 22 August
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- 250 mb at 00z, 23 August
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- 200 mb Height/Wind/PV, 14z, 22 August
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- 200 mb Height/Wind/PV, 22z, 22 August Height Rises / PV Destruction
- Slide 15
- Surface Analysis, 18z, 22 August Possible PRE
- Slide 16
- 850 mb Moisture Transport Possible PRE
- Slide 17
- 700 mb Heights, 925 mb Winds/Theta-E, at 21z, 22 August Near intersection of Bills moisture and pre-existing moist plume
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- Parcel Trajectories into Central New England Bills Track
- Slide 19
- Bill Summary Bill fit into the AR track for potential PRE-producing systems One main heavy rain episode took place on the periphery of Bills influence Southern NH on 22 August 4-7 (up to 175 mm) of rain fell within just a few hours, causing flash flooding Transient nature of heavier rain bands precluded excessive rainfall/runoff problems elsewhere
- Slide 20
- Danny
- Slide 21
- Brief History of Danny Himself Danny was initially a Cape Verde tropical wave, and took several days to become a named storm Finally, on 26 August, it attained Tropical Storm status east of the Bahamas From 26-29 August, Danny remained a Tropical Storm well off the Southeast U.S. coast From 29-31 August, Danny weakened to a Tropical Depression, and ultimately transitioned to an extra- tropical system, as it recurved off the U.S. East Coast
- Slide 22
- Dannys Approximate Path
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- Heavy Rainfall Event across the Mid-Atlantic Region
- Slide 24
- Late Night/Early Morning Rainfall, 27-28 August 4-8 (100- 200 mm) rainfall
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- Radar Loop
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- 250 mb at 00z, 28 August
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- Water Vapor Loop
- Slide 28
- 700 mb Heights, 925 mb Winds/Theta-E, at 05z, 28 August Axis of tro pical moisture Separate moist axis
- Slide 29
- 850 mb at 00z, 28 August
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- Parcel Trajectories into the Mid- Atlantic Region
- Slide 31
- 200 mb Height/Jet/PV, 02z, 28 August
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- 200 mb Height/Jet/PV, 09z, 28 August
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- SB CAPE Analysis, 06z, 28 August
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- Heavy Rainfall Event Just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast
- Slide 35
- Late Afternoon/Overnight Rainfall, 28-29 August Widespread 5-10 (up to 250 mm) rainfall
- Slide 36
- Radar Loop, 28-29 August
- Slide 37
- 250 mb at 00z, 29 August
- Slide 38
- Water Vapor, 28-29 August
- Slide 39
- 700 mb Heights, 925 mb Winds/Theta-E, at 03z, 29 August Tropical Moisture Axis
- Slide 40
- SB CAPE Analysis, 00z, 29 August Possible PRE
- Slide 41
- Surface Analysis, 00z, 29 August Possible PRE
- Slide 42
- 850 mb Analysis, 00z on 29 August
- Slide 43
- Parcel Trajectories into the Mid- Atlantic Coastal Region Dannys Track
- Slide 44
- Danny Summary Danny fit into the AR track for potential PRE-producing systems Two distinct heavy rain episodes took place on the periphery of Dannys influence Event that most resembled a PRE took place just offshore, 28- 29 August Heavy rain/flash flooding that occurred in the Baltimore area appeared to lack sufficient moisture contributions from Danny or jet interactions Lack of a direct moisture connection with the TC, as well as a relatively cool stable air mass, seemed to protect much of the Northeastern U.S. from excessive rainfall