Michael Epprecht

Centre for Development and Environment CDEUniversity of Bern, Switzerland

Targeting poverty in the Lao PDR:how well do current approaches reach the poor?

September 1 – 4, 2013

Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand

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► Background of the SAE in the Lao PDR

► Results of the Lao poverty mapping analysis

► Implications for targeting

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Mapping Poverty in the Lao PDR

Small-area estimation analysis using

Lao Expenditure and Consumption Survey 2003

(LECS III)

8092 households (20% urban)

in 540 villages (5%)

Population and Housing Census 2005

Systematic sample of 75% of households:

712,900 households

4,123,988 individuals

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Rural Urban X X X X X X. X X X X . .

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• Household size• Household size squared• Age composition of household • Female-headed household .• Education of head • Education of spouse• Occupation of head • Ethnicity .• Type of floor• Type of wall• Type of roof• Area of house . • Type of water source• Type of toilet• Type of cooking energy• Village cooking energy .• Village floor type• Village ethnicity• Agro-ecological region

SAE poverty mapping model applied in Lao PDR

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► Lao poverty mapping analysis

Reliability of results

Where are the poor?

Who are the poor?

► Poverty estimates and confidence intervalsR

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► Size of Lao villages (75% sample)R

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Poverty rates arehighest in the South East along the mountainous border with Vietnam

Rural poverty is low in

• Xayaburi Province:high value agric. for export

• Mekong corridor:irrigated rice and trade with Thailand

• Boloven plateau:fertile basaltic soils - coffee, tea, & cardamom

► Spatial patterns of poverty in the Lao PDR

► Spatial patterns of poverty in the Lao PDR

Poverty incidence and poverty density

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► Lao poverty mapping analysis

Where are the poor?

Who are the poor?

Poverty rates amongmale- and female-headed households:

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► Poverty among ethnic groups

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► Poverty among ethnic groups

With the poor a bit of everywhere:

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With the poor a bit of everywhere:

?► What are the

implications…

…for targeting of poverty alleviation efforts?

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► Where to reach the poor?

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G► MDG 1: Reducing the number of poor people

by 50 % in 2015

50% of the poor live in districts classified as not poor

1/3 of the poor live in poor priority districts

Highest poverty density Poorest areas

► MDG 1: Reducing Laos’ number of poor by 50%IM

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► Most people are poor in remote, and sparsely

populated areas

high ‘access’ costs per person

costly service provision

little potential ‘leakage’ to non-poor

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► Most poor people live in comparatively

densely populated areas

low ‘physical access’ costs per person, but

potentially higher targeting costs

cheaper service provision

high ‘leakage’ to non-poor

► Balancing targeting (and implementation) costs vs. ‘leakage’

► Considerations on type of assistance in targeting(household vs. community/ geographic)

► Data needs, and updatability of key data

► Regional development approach in sparsely populated poor remote areas

► Household or population segment targeting in densely populated areas

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