mi-14 foster mccollum white for fox 2 news detroit (july 2012)

7/31/2019 MI-14 Foster McCollum White for Fox 2 News Detroit (July 2012)

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Foster McCollum White & Associates

______________________________________________________________________________________

1

Michigan 14th Congressional District DemocraticPrimary Election Exclusive Polling Study for

Fox 2 News Detroit.

Automated Poll Methodology and StatisticsAggregate Results

Conducted byFoster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B

July 23, 2012


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District - Wide Aggregate Results 685 Respondents MOE +/- 3.74%

Question 1:

The 2012 Michigan 14th Congressional District Democratic Primary election will be heldin August. Who are you most likely to vote for in the primary for US House of

Representatives?

(Current Democratic Congressman Hansen Clarke): 26.72%

(Current Democratic Congressman Gary Peters): 45.11%(Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence): 9.64%

(Former State Rep. Mary Waters): 1.17%(Retired Magistrate Bob Costello): 0.29%(Undecided): 17.08%

17%

45%

0%1%

10%

27%Hansen Clarke

Gary Peters

Brenda Lawrence

Mary Waters

Bob Costello

Undecided


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Question #2:

Due to redistricting in Michigan it is possible that the City of Detroit will not have aresident as a member of Congress for the first time in Michigan history. Is it important tomaintain elected congressional representation from the city of Detroit in the 14th

Congressional District?

(It is very important): 57.98%(It is somewhat important): 19.91%

Total maintaining Detroit representation is important 77.89%(It is somewhat unimportant): 12.01%(It is very unimportant): 5.86%

Total maintaining Detroit representation is unimportant 17.87%(Undecided on importance): 3.81%

(It does not matter): 0.44%

0%

58%

12%

6%4%

20%

Detroit representation is very

important

Detroit representation is

somewhat important

Detroit representation is

somewhat unimportant

Detroit representation is very

unimportant

Undecided

It doesn't matter


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Question #3:

Due to redistricting in Michigan it is possible that the Michigan will not have an AfricanAmerican or non-white Minority American as a member of the Michigan CongressionalDelegation for the first time since 1954. Is it important to maintain African American or

Minority representation from the 14th Congressional District?

(It is very important): 55.12%(It is somewhat important): 21.05%

Total maintaining Minority representation is important 76.17%(It is somewhat unimportant): 13.74%(It is very unimportant): 7.46%

Total maintaining Minority representation is unimportant 21.20%(Undecided on importance): 1.75%

(It does not matter): 0.88%

1%

55%

14%

7%

2%

21%

Minority representation is

very important


somewhat important

Minority representation issomewhat unimportant


very unimportant

Undecided

It doesn't matter


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Question #4:

In Which Age Range Do You Fit?

1- Between 18 to 30 years old, 2- between 31 to 50 years old, 3- between 51 to 65 years

old, 4- ages 66 and older

(Between 18 to 30 years old): 3.65%

(Between 31 to 50 years old): 12.72%(Between 51 to 65 years old): 37.13%

(Ages 66 and older): 46.35%

Age Distribution of Aggregate Poll Respondents

46.35

3.65

37.13

12.72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ages 66 & older Ages 51 to 65 Ages 31 to 50 Ages 18 to 30

Age Dist.

Linear (Age Dist.)


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Question #5:

What is your gender?

1. Male 32.89%2. Female 67.11%

Female Voters

67%

Male Voters

33%

Gender ofAggregate Poll Respondents


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Question #6Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, an Independent, a Republicanor a Tea Party member?

(IF DEM) Do you consider yourself a solid Democrat or leaning Democrat?

(IF REP) Do you consider yourself a solid Republican, leaning Republican or a TeaParty Republican?

Response Code 1 (Solid Democrat): 76.32%Response Code 2 (Leaning Democrat): 10.88%

Response Code 3 (Independent): 11.03%Response Code 4 (Solid Republican): 0.88%Response Code 5 (Leaning Republican): 0.59%

Response Code 6 (Tea Party Republican): 0.29%

0%

11%

1%1%11%

76%

Strong Democrat

Leaning Democrat

Independent

Solid Republican

Leaning Republican

Tea Party Republican


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Question #7What is your nationality/heritage?

Response Code 1 (African American/Black): 54.79%Response Code 2 (White/Caucasian): 34.76%Response Code 3 (Hispanic/Latino): 1.62%

Response Code 4 (Arab American): 1.47%Response Code 5 (Asian/Pacific Islander): 0.59%Response Code 6 (Native American): 0.59%

Response Code 7 (More than one racial/ethnic identity): 6.04%

54.79

34.76

1.62

1.47

0.59

0.59

6.04

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

African American

White/Caucasian

Hispanic/Latino

Arab American

Asian American

Native American

Multi Racial

Multi Racial

Native

American

Asian

American

Arab

American

Hispanic/Lat

ino

White/Cauc

asian

African

American


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Question #8:

Which of the following most accurately describes your religious background?

1- Evangelical Christian, 2- Catholic, 3- Baptist, 4- Non Evangelical Christian, 5- Jewish,

6- Muslim 7- Other religious affiliation or No religious affiliation

(Evangelical Christian): 10.98%

(Catholic): 18.55%(Baptist): 31.75%

(Protestant/Non Evangelical Christian): 15.28%(Jewish): 9.50%(Muslim): 0.74%

(Other or no religious affiliation): 13.20%

Other or No

Religious

Affiliation

13%

Baptist

31%

Jewish

10%

Muslim

1%

Evangelical

Christian

11%

Non Evangelical

Christian

15%

Catholic

19%


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Question #9:Are you or is any member of your household a member of a labor union?

Response Code 1 (No): 62.76%Response Code 2 (Yes, Self): 26.25%

Response Code 3 (Yes, Household): 10.70%Response Code 4 (DK/Refused): 0.29%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

No Yes, Self Yes, Household DK/Refused

62.76

26.25

10.7

0.29


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Geographic considerations of polling study respondents

Detroit Region of Wayne County 41.63%

Near Detroit Suburbs Region of Wayne County 10.63%Southeastern Oakland Region 25.04%

Southwestern Oakland Region 18.20%Central Region of Oakland County 4.51%

41.63

10.63

25.04

18.2

4.51

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Detroit Near Detroit

Suburbs

Southeastern

Oakland

County

Southwestern

Oakland

County

Central

Oakland

County


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Geographic Electoral Weight considerations of polling study respondents

Wayne County Cities Cluster 52.46%

Oakland County Cities Cluster 47.54%

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Wayne County Cities Oakland County Cities

52.46

47.54


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Methodology

- Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voteranalytics consulting firmbased in Michigan and representing the combined resources ofFoster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (DearbornMichigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registeredand most likely August 2012 primary election voters in the 14th congressional district todetermine their voting and issue preferences on the Democratic Congressional nomination,

the impact of losing congressional representation from Detroit and the impact of losingAfrican American or minority congressional representation.

- This nine question automated poll survey was conducted on the evening of July 23, 2012

- The population surveyed consisted of a sample of traditional Michigan high part icipation

registered voters and voters that fit Michigan Primary election voting patterns. The majorityof these voters have participated in a significant majority of the available primary and generalelection and odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since their registrat ion.Additionally, our call f ile does allow for random moderate and low participation voters to be

included in the sample. Our call file was randomized to allow for the maximum range ofparticipation and randomization.

- An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to part icipate only if theywere very likely to vote in the August Primary Election.

- Twenty-one thousand three hundred and eighty-two (21,382) calls were placed, and 685respondents fully participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 3.20%.

- Our list-based sample pool was pre-weighted to the geographical regions and politicalparticipation regions and the congressional districts in Michigan. For reporting purposes, wewill focus our findings on the following issue-based categories:

A. The baseline for 14th congressional district Democratic primary nominationpreference.

B. The impact of potentially losing congressional representation from the Cityof Detroit.

C. The impact of potentially losing African American or minoritycongressional representation from Michigan.

- The margin of error for this polling sample is 3.74% with a confidence level of 95%. Ourpolling study produced sub-populations within each of the surveyed election contest. Resultswithin the sub-populations will be reported with respect to the individual cross-tab and sub-population group as it exist.


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Cross tabulation groups for comparison purposes Age Gender Race/Ethnicity Religious affiliationEvangelical Christian, Catholic, Baptist, Non

Evangelical Christian, Jewish, Muslim and other religious affiliations

Voter Political Party Preference Democratic, Republican and Independent Union Household versus Non Union Household 14th Congressional District Geographical Voter Regions (Southeastern

Oakland Region, Southwestern Oakland Region, Central Region of Oakland

County, Near Detroit Suburbs, Detroit)

Major Oakland County Cities Oakland County vs. Wayne County Impact of potentially losing congressional representation from the city of

Detroit question

Impact of potentially losing African American or minority congressionalrepresentation from Michigan

14th Congressional District RegionVoting age adult demographics: 34.48% White, 56.31% African American, 3.62% LatinoAmerican, 3.65% Asian American, 0.23% Native American & 1.70% Other Ethnic

American.

2012 Michigan 14th district August 7th primary net total projected voter turnoutweight by represented municipality (based on FMWB predictive voter behavioranalysis model for Democratic primary and Republican primary)

Voter Precincts

2012 August

Projected

Net

Primary

Election

Percentageof net

turnoutby

municipality

FMWB

Final

participationpercentage

of pollinguniverse by

municipality

DETROIT 47.25% 41.88%

Southfield 14.36% 17.25%


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Farmington

Hills 10.02% 9.57%

WEST

BLOOMFIELD 7.68% 7.97%

PONTIAC 6.51% 4.49%

OAK PARK 4.34% 5.65%

HARPER

WOODS 1.84% 1.59%

GROSSE

POINTE PARK 1.50% 2.75%

GROSSE

POINTE

WOODS 1.50% 2.32%

HAMTRAMCK 1.50% 1.01%

LATHRUP

VILLAGE 1.00% 1.30%

GROSSE

POINTE

FARMS 0.83% 1.74%

GROSSE

POINTE CITY 0.67% 1.16%

ROYAL OAK

TWP. 0.50% 0.72%

KEEGOHARBOR 0.17% 0.29%

ORCHARD

LAKE 0.17% 0.14%

SYLVANLAKE 0.17% 0.14%

Grosse Pointe

Shores 0.15% 0.00%


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Data Analysis Statement

The data has been separated analytically into cross tabulation results that are statisticallysignificant with respect to Michigan Primary election cycle and the new 14th CongressionalDistrict. Any sectional analysis within the aforementioned categories can be useful when

inferr ing strengths and weaknesses and possible strategy.

For the assessment of individual cross tabulation categories, we use a correlation coefficientmodel based on the Pearson r correlation, also called linearorproduct- momentcorrelation.Pearson correlation (hereafter called correlation), assumes that the two variables are measured onat least interval scales and it determines the extent to which values of the two variables are"proportional" to each other. The value of correlation (i.e., correlation coefficient) does notdepend on the specific measurement units used. Our proportional model for correlating the

statistical relevance of a geographical region, age grouping or congressional district is based onthe random proportionality of our respondent pool to the specific proportionality of the groups

weight to the aggregate model. The correlation coefficient (r) represents the linear relationshipbetween these two variables (aggregate and cross tabular category).

The aggregate 14th Congressional District sample size of 685 respondents has a 3.74% margin oferror, any review of the polling report can allow for the statistical relationship between theaggregate and cross tabulation margin of error for the reported clusters. The poll sample was preweighted for gender and ethnicity based upon Foster McCollum White Baydoun Predictive VoterBehavior Analysis Model for historic primary election participation demographics throughoutWayne County and the new 14th Congressional district represented municipalities. This poll wascommissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit and conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun and

not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization. We strive to adhereto the principles and standards of the National Council on Public Polls in the gathering andreporting of polling data.


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Demographic Sample Report

Our polling sample was very consistent with the projected voter demographic considerations andpredictive voter behavior analysis model for a Michigan 14th Congressional District AugustPrimary election. We have no significant variance items to report. Our polling sample call filewas weighted for Michigans most likely voter universe for the Michigan primary election cycle

and included consideration for moderate and low participation history voters. We believe ourrespondent universe is reflective of voters that are highly aware and interested in participating inthe August Primary election. We are reporting the data un-weighted to the demographic variancesas to maintain consistency with the interest level of 14th Congressional District voters for thepolling study.

mi-14 foster mccollum white for fox 2 news detroit (july 2012)

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