mexico: rising opportunity - amazon web...
TRANSCRIPT
- 2 -
Economic Stability and Positive Growth Rates
$1.144 USD Trillion
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Historic Mexican GDP(USD Billion)1960-2015
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mexican Economic Growth2006-2016
Average 2.5% growth in the last 10 years
Source: Bancomext, INEGI, 2016
Source: iNEGI, 2016
- 3 -
Economic Stability and Positive Growth Rates
Economic Growth Comparative(2016)
Source: Bancomext, IMF, World Economic Perspective Data Base, 2016.
- 4 -
Population
35,000,000
45,000,000
55,000,000
65,000,000
75,000,000
85,000,000
95,000,000
105,000,000
115,000,000
125,000,000
135,000,000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Historic National Population
(Million People)
1960-2015
120 million
Source: Bancomext, INEGI, 2016
Men Women
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Mexican Favorable Location
Golf of Mexico
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Caribbean Sea
United States of America
1 Canada 9.98 million km2
2 USA 9.63 million Km2
3 Brazil 8.51 million km2
4 Argentina 2.77 million km2
5 Mexico 1.97 million km2
Source: Bancomext, 2016
- 6 -
Mexican Infrastructure and Energy Overview
Roads
54
World Ranking
Infrastructure developmentElectricity
73
Seaports
57
Airports
55
Energy Infrastructure
49HK1
CHI45
URU52
PAR40
TT51
MX59
Government Investment in Infrastructure
GDP %
(2006-2015)
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4.5% of GDP
Source: Bancomext, 2016
Source: Ainda PE Fund, 2017
- 7 -
Investment on Infrastructure and Energy
2012-2016
USD$ 3.6 billioninvested to construct59.8 km of railroad
2012-2016
USD$ 15.9 billioninvested on national
roads.
2012-2016
26 highways with 1500 kilometers were
finished.
2012-2016
USD$ 112.3 millioninvested in airport
services.
2012-2016
USD$ 1.5 billioninvested in energy
centrals.
2012-2016
USD$ 839.8 millioninvested to modernize
electric centrals.
- 8 -
Private Equity Industry
2000-2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jul-16
Venture Capital $250 $270 $270 $372 $500 $515 $735 $787 $1,018 $1,387 $1,611 $1,781
Real Estate $1,608 $3,335 $5,562 $6,817 $7,166 $8,631 $9,531 $11,120 $11,799 $11,918 $12,346 $12,346
Private Equity $2,456 $2,793 $4,601 $4,846 $5,108 $5,960 $7,195 $7,830 $8,830 $10,289 $15,525 $15,675
Infrastructure and Energy $125 $135 $155 $287 $1,222 $2,149 $2,529 $3,868 $3,868 $7,489 $9,140 $9,140
Fund of Funds $- $192 $192 $192 $192 $338 $390 $827 $827 $964 $1,457 $1,457
Debt $- $- $68 $178 $183 $509 $509 $929 $1,080 $1,422 $1,838 $1,872
Totals $4,439 $6,725 $10,848 $12,693 $14,372 $18,102 $20,889 $25,361 $27,422 $33,469 $41,918 $42,571
$1,222 $2,149 $2,529
$3,868 $3,868
$7,489
$9,140 $9,140
$4,439
$6,725
$10,848 $12,693
$14,372
$18,102
$20,889
$25,361 $27,422
$33,469
$41,918 $42,571
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Historic Committed Capital to Mexico(USD millions)
Source: AMEXCAP, 2016
- 9 -
Private Equity Industry
2000-2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jul-16
Venture Capital 3 3 3 5 8 8 14 16 30 40 52 55
Real Estate 8 11 18 19 19 21 24 27 29 29 31 31
Private Equity 11 14 15 16 18 23 25 28 31 37 36 44
Infrastructure & Energy 1 2 4 4 5 7 7 8 10 20 29 30
Fund of Funds 0 4 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 4 4 4
Debt 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4
Totals 24 35 42 46 52 62 74 85 107 133 155 168
5 7 7 8 10
2029 3024
3542
4652
62
74
85
107
133
155
168
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Active Fund Managers(Number of GPs)
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Universe of GPs Operating in Mexico by Size and Strategy
Source: AMEXCAP, 2016
- 11 -
Universe of GPs Operating in Mexico by Strategy
Source: AMEXCAP, 2016
- 12 -
Australian Funds Operating in Mexico
➢ Macquarie is the only Australian Fund operating in Mexico
➢ Macquarie Group launched Macquarie Mexican Infrastructure Fund in 2010, withapproximately USD$408 million in initial commitments from Mexican pension funds, FONADINand Macquarie.
➢ MMIF is Macquarie's first managed fund in Latin America, and is the first peso-denominatedfund solely focused on investment opportunities in Mexican infrastructure projects. The Fundwill target investments across infrastructure asset classes that include: roads and rail, airportsand ports, water and wastewater, energy and utilities as well as social and communicationsinfrastructure.
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Historic Transactions on Infrastructure and Energy Sector
48%
36%
6%
5%
2%
2%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Petróleo y gas
Servicios Públicos
Cuidado de la salud
Bienes de consumo
Servicios financieros
Materias básicas
Telecomunicaciones
Infrastructure and energy(Transactions from 2000-2016)
$487
$- $34 $270 $255
$1,856
$2,990
$-
8
3
9 9 9 10
11
2
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
00-09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Infrastructure and Energy Transactions by Number and Size(Number, USD Millions)
Valor de inversiones (USD millones) Número de inversiones
Recent Investments: Renewable Projects:
Los Ramones Ventikas
Tres Mesas La Bufa
Sierra Oil and Gas Tres Mesas
Fermaca Chabacal I and II
Citla Energy Solar Park Coahuila
Adquisition of Bright
PEMEX’s assets
Source: AMEXCAP, 2016
- 14 -
CKDs 2009-2016
CKD
60 CKDs – $ 8.3 billion
15 CKD Infraestructure - $ 5.4 billion
Total:USD $24.89(billion)
Available:USD $16.58(billion)
Taken:USD $8.3(billion)
New Vehicles
CERPI
Maximum Capital
USD$ 210 million&
FIBRA E
Maximum Capital
USD$ 621.9 million&
CEL
Designed to boost the
generation of renewable
energy in Mexico.
& &
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Inscreasing Deal Flow and Private Equity Funds as Expert Allies
- 16 -
Opportunity Area: Upstream, Midstream and Downstream
Round Cero Estimation to drill around 3,000 oil wells in 5 years (USD$ 10,000 billion).
Round one: Estimation to drill 2,300 oil wells un 5 years (USD$ 19,000 billion).
Contracts’ migration Estimation (USD$ 3,930 billion).
Farmouts Projects in mature sectors, heavy oil and deep water (USD$ 32,000 billion).
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Opportunity Area: Gas Pipelines and Generation of Ethanol
Oil and gas average anual Price
(USD$ Bbtu)
Japan USD$ 10.3
Germany USD$ 6.6
United Kingdom USD$ 6.6
USA USD$ 2.6
Canada USD$ 2.0
- 18 -
Opportunity Area: Power Transmission lines
- 19 -
Opportunity Area: Energy Production, Renewable and Clean Energy Production
- 20 -
Opportunity Area: Hidraulic Sector
➢ Water availability, has experiencedcontraction in our country. Mexico went form18,000 m3 per capita in 1950 to less than4,000 m3 in 2013. Additionally, aquifers arebeing overexploited.
➢ Out of 653 of Mexican aquifers, 106 (16%)have higher extraction levels than theirannual recharge capability.
- 21 -
Opportunity Area: Project Relocating Costs
- 22 -
Conclusions
Mexico is going through a rising phase regarding its infrastructure and energy sector:
1. Wide deal flow of all sorts of projects
2. Structural reforms
3. New vehicles incentivizing investment
4. Competitive and sophisticated private equity industry
